Core Viewpoint - The August employment report indicates a significant slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating future discussions on rate cuts [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The June employment data was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs. The net job loss in the latest report was 21,000 [6]. - Over the past three months, the average monthly job growth in the private sector was 29,000, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began. The average job growth over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. Labor Market Insights - The June job growth marked the end of a 53-month streak of monthly non-farm employment growth, the second-longest on record, significantly shorter than the 113-month streak that ended with the COVID-19 pandemic [9]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [10]. Wage Growth Analysis - The comprehensive weekly wage index, a good monthly indicator of nominal income growth, rose by 4.4% year-over-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle. The three-month annualized growth rate was revised down from 4.6% to 2.4% [13]. Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate in August, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324%. Federal Reserve officials previously projected that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has significantly slowed down since the beginning of the year, as indicated by the August non-farm employment report, which shows a clear decline in new job additions [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The job growth data for June was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs [5]. - Over the past three months, the private sector averaged 29,000 new jobs per month, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began [6]. - The average number of new jobs in the private sector over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating discussions about future rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chair Powell indicated that if labor market data shows a slowdown, the Fed will proceed with planned rate cuts, reflecting a shift in the balance of risks [2][4]. - The comprehensive weekly wage index rose by 4.4% year-on-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle, with a three-month annualized growth rate declining from 3.2% to 2.4% [11]. - The unemployment rate, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August, with Fed officials previously predicting it would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [14].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,553 after a slight pullback, with a previous close at $3,545.63, down 0.4% [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting gold prices [1] - A weak labor market is increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, which supports gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.16% to 98.28, putting pressure on gold prices as a stronger dollar reduces gold's attractiveness to holders of other currencies [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 2.4 basis points to 3.59% and the 10-year yield down 4.4 basis points to 4.167%, both hitting four-month lows [1] - The flattening yield curve, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowing to 58 basis points, often precedes Fed rate cuts [1] Market Sentiment - Gold prices have declined due to profit-taking by traders after a strong rally, with many investors cashing in at high points [2] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and reflecting a cooling labor market, which has led to cautious market sentiment [2] - The ADP National Employment Report indicated only 54,000 private sector jobs were added in August, significantly below the expected 65,000, further supporting the view of a slowing labor market [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now close to 100%, up from 87% a week prior, driven by the increasing likelihood of economic slowdown [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a temporary pause in the upward trend, but the overall bullish structure remains intact [7] - Short-term price movements have seen gold prices rise from $3,320 to a peak of $3,578, with recent fluctuations testing support around $3,511 [7] - Traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, with potential trading ranges identified between $3,530 and $3,560 [8]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently at 98.14, with a slight decline of 0.14%, but has seen a cumulative increase of 0.4% this week, indicating potential for a second consecutive week of gains [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly rose by 8,000 to 237,000, exceeding market expectations of 230,000, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The yields on US Treasury bonds have declined across all maturities, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2.1 basis points to 4.19% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.60%, reflecting ongoing fiscal concerns globally [1] Group 2 - The market is now pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting on September 17, a significant increase from 89% a week prior [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated that pressures in the labor market remain a key reason supporting the case for a rate cut [1] - The US, European, and Japanese bond markets have stabilized following a reduction in fiscal concerns, with the US 2-year Treasury yield dropping to 3.583%, the lowest since May [2]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading around $3556.29, with a slight increase of 0.15% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Recent data shows an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S., reaching 237,000, which is above market expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [2] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated that labor market pressures remain a significant reason for supporting interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in September now nearly 100% [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum after a period of adjustment, successfully reaching previously set bullish target prices [3] - Despite a recent failure to maintain upward momentum, the overall bullish sentiment remains intact as long as prices do not fall below the 5-day moving average [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3700 and $4000, while support levels are at $3500 and $3447, providing potential entry points for investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the U.S. labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, highlighting a trend of weakening employment data that may lead to a rate cut in September [2][4][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Data - The ADP private employment report indicated an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the revised 106,000 from July, suggesting a notable decline in hiring intentions among employers [4]. - The labor market has shown a continuous trend of job growth below 100,000 for four consecutive months, marking the weakest phase since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [4]. - Market reactions to the ADP data were muted, as investors interpreted the weak figures as a potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, with a 90% probability priced in for a rate cut [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts suggest that the weak employment data reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve may lean towards a rate cut in September, as the labor market's positive changes are slowing down [5][6]. - The expectation is that economic support in the second half of the year will come from more accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus to prevent further economic deterioration [6]. - The upcoming employment report is viewed as critical, with the potential for worsening data to raise concerns about the overall health of the economy [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Nominee and Independence - Stephen Milan, a nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasized his commitment to the independence of the central bank during his Senate confirmation hearing, countering concerns that he would act as a spokesperson for former President Trump [7][10]. - The confirmation process for Milan is being expedited by Republican senators, aiming to have him approved before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 [10][11]. - The article notes that despite concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, there has been no significant opposition from Republican senators regarding Milan's nomination, reflecting Trump's continued influence within the party [10][11].

Group 1 - The recruitment plans of U.S. companies fell to a historical low in August, with only 1,494 new jobs announced, marking the lowest level for August since records began in 2009 [1][2] - Layoff announcements surged to nearly 85,980, the highest for August since 2020, indicating significant pressure on the labor market [1][2] - The data suggests a cooling trend in the labor market, with expectations that the upcoming government employment report will confirm the slowdown in hiring activity [1][2] Group 2 - Recruitment plans are primarily concentrated in the aerospace, defense, industrial goods, and retail sectors, indicating that most industries are delaying or reducing hiring [2] - The layoff figures, when excluding pandemic effects, represent the highest for any August since the 2008 recession, highlighting the severity of current labor market pressures [2] - The report supports the assessment that the labor market is slowing down, with a notable decline in recruitment activities observed in recent months [2]

Group 1 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department shows that job vacancies in July fell to 7.18 million, the lowest in nearly 10 months, and below economists' expectations of 7.38 million, indicating a cautious hiring attitude among businesses and a weakening labor demand amid increasing policy uncertainty [1] - The healthcare, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality sectors are the main areas where job vacancies have decreased, with healthcare vacancies reaching their lowest level since 2021, despite being a key driver of employment growth this year [1] - Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research noted that the decline in job vacancies is primarily concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, as well as state and local government sectors, which typically do not fluctuate with economic cycles, suggesting that continued weakness in these "non-cyclical" sectors could significantly pressure overall employment growth [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated his long-standing position advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting, emphasizing the need to act before labor market deterioration occurs, as employment conditions can worsen rapidly [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed a similar view, suggesting that the current policy is somewhat tight and that a 25 basis point rate cut may be appropriate in the remaining months of the year due to the slowdown in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as labor market indicators show weakness, while concerns about high inflation persist, exacerbated by tariff policies from the previous administration [3]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 24.58 points (-0.05%) at 45271.23, the Nasdaq up 218.10 points (+1.02%) at 21497.73, and the S&P 500 up 32.72 points (+0.51%) at 6448.26 [1][2] - Technology stocks saw a broad rally, contributing to the rebounds in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, while energy and bank stocks underperformed due to ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and rising bond yields [2] Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached a historic high after a court ruling that prevented its breakup, boosting market optimism regarding tech giants' ability to withstand regulatory threats [1][9] - American Bitcoin made its debut on Nasdaq through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, with its stock price initially soaring over 100% before closing up 16.5% [3] Economic Indicators - Bank of America reported a near-record buying spree in small-cap stocks following Fed Chair Powell's comments on interest rate cuts, with clients purchasing $1.5 billion worth of small-cap stocks and ETFs, marking the second-largest weekly purchase since 2008 [2] - The July JOLTS report indicated a decline in job openings by 176,000 to 7.181 million, with hiring increasing by 41,000 to 5.308 million, reflecting a softening labor market [6] - The upcoming August employment report is anticipated to show a non-farm payroll increase of 75,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite an increase in initial jobless claims indicating a slowdown in the labor market, a robust manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has led traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a rate cut in September now around 65%, down from over 90% a week ago [1] Group 1: Labor Market and Interest Rates - The increase in initial jobless claims suggests a cooling labor market [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for any hints regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - Several policymakers, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have expressed a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to rely on data [1] Group 2: Trade and Regulatory Developments - The U.S. and EU finalized a framework agreement last Thursday, building on a deal reached the previous month [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has indicated a potential investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Cook, with a senior official urging Powell to remove her from the Fed's board [1] - Trump's housing finance chief, Pulte, has called for an investigation into Cook's alleged mortgage agreement reached in 2021 [1]