Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the U.S. labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, highlighting a trend of weakening employment data that may lead to a rate cut in September [2][4][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Data - The ADP private employment report indicated an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the revised 106,000 from July, suggesting a notable decline in hiring intentions among employers [4]. - The labor market has shown a continuous trend of job growth below 100,000 for four consecutive months, marking the weakest phase since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [4]. - Market reactions to the ADP data were muted, as investors interpreted the weak figures as a potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, with a 90% probability priced in for a rate cut [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts suggest that the weak employment data reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve may lean towards a rate cut in September, as the labor market's positive changes are slowing down [5][6]. - The expectation is that economic support in the second half of the year will come from more accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus to prevent further economic deterioration [6]. - The upcoming employment report is viewed as critical, with the potential for worsening data to raise concerns about the overall health of the economy [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Nominee and Independence - Stephen Milan, a nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasized his commitment to the independence of the central bank during his Senate confirmation hearing, countering concerns that he would act as a spokesperson for former President Trump [7][10]. - The confirmation process for Milan is being expedited by Republican senators, aiming to have him approved before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 [10][11]. - The article notes that despite concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, there has been no significant opposition from Republican senators regarding Milan's nomination, reflecting Trump's continued influence within the party [10][11].

Group 1 - The recruitment plans of U.S. companies fell to a historical low in August, with only 1,494 new jobs announced, marking the lowest level for August since records began in 2009 [1][2] - Layoff announcements surged to nearly 85,980, the highest for August since 2020, indicating significant pressure on the labor market [1][2] - The data suggests a cooling trend in the labor market, with expectations that the upcoming government employment report will confirm the slowdown in hiring activity [1][2] Group 2 - Recruitment plans are primarily concentrated in the aerospace, defense, industrial goods, and retail sectors, indicating that most industries are delaying or reducing hiring [2] - The layoff figures, when excluding pandemic effects, represent the highest for any August since the 2008 recession, highlighting the severity of current labor market pressures [2] - The report supports the assessment that the labor market is slowing down, with a notable decline in recruitment activities observed in recent months [2]

Group 1 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department shows that job vacancies in July fell to 7.18 million, the lowest in nearly 10 months, and below economists' expectations of 7.38 million, indicating a cautious hiring attitude among businesses and a weakening labor demand amid increasing policy uncertainty [1] - The healthcare, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality sectors are the main areas where job vacancies have decreased, with healthcare vacancies reaching their lowest level since 2021, despite being a key driver of employment growth this year [1] - Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research noted that the decline in job vacancies is primarily concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, as well as state and local government sectors, which typically do not fluctuate with economic cycles, suggesting that continued weakness in these "non-cyclical" sectors could significantly pressure overall employment growth [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated his long-standing position advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting, emphasizing the need to act before labor market deterioration occurs, as employment conditions can worsen rapidly [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed a similar view, suggesting that the current policy is somewhat tight and that a 25 basis point rate cut may be appropriate in the remaining months of the year due to the slowdown in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as labor market indicators show weakness, while concerns about high inflation persist, exacerbated by tariff policies from the previous administration [3]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 24.58 points (-0.05%) at 45271.23, the Nasdaq up 218.10 points (+1.02%) at 21497.73, and the S&P 500 up 32.72 points (+0.51%) at 6448.26 [1][2] - Technology stocks saw a broad rally, contributing to the rebounds in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, while energy and bank stocks underperformed due to ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and rising bond yields [2] Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached a historic high after a court ruling that prevented its breakup, boosting market optimism regarding tech giants' ability to withstand regulatory threats [1][9] - American Bitcoin made its debut on Nasdaq through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, with its stock price initially soaring over 100% before closing up 16.5% [3] Economic Indicators - Bank of America reported a near-record buying spree in small-cap stocks following Fed Chair Powell's comments on interest rate cuts, with clients purchasing $1.5 billion worth of small-cap stocks and ETFs, marking the second-largest weekly purchase since 2008 [2] - The July JOLTS report indicated a decline in job openings by 176,000 to 7.181 million, with hiring increasing by 41,000 to 5.308 million, reflecting a softening labor market [6] - The upcoming August employment report is anticipated to show a non-farm payroll increase of 75,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [7][8]

尽管数据显示初请失业金人数增加，进一步表明劳动力市场正在放缓，但稳健的制造业采购经理人指数 却促使交易员减少了对降息的押注。货币市场显示，9月份降息的可能性约为65%。而一周前，这一几 率还在90%以上。 目前所有人的目光都集中在美联储年度研讨会上，主席鲍威尔定于周五发表讲话。交易员将密切关注他 的讲话，以寻找近期就业市场疲软后9月份降息的任何线索。 来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 贸易方面，美国和欧盟周四敲定了上个月达成的框架协议。 与此同时，美国司法部暗示可能计划调查美联储理事库克，一位高级官员鼓励鲍威尔将她从美联储理事 名单中除名。特朗普总统的住房金融主管普尔特呼吁对她涉嫌在2021年达成的抵押贷款协议展开调查。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 包括克利夫兰联储主席哈马克、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在内的多位政策 制定者都保持谨慎态度，并承认需要继续依赖数据。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周美国初请失业金人数升至6月以来的最高水平，且续请失业金人数也在攀升， 进一步表明美国劳动力市场正在放缓。美国劳工部周四公布，截至8月16日当周初请失业金人数增加1.1 万人，至23.5万人，高于市场此前预期的22.5人。截至8月9日当周续请失业金人数升至197万人，为2021 年11月以来的最高水平。 美国截至8月16日当周初请失业金人数四周均值达到22.63万人，为一个月来的最高值。 初请失业金人数持续上升可能会加剧人们对劳动力市场的担忧，因为最近的美国就业报告显示，就业市 场招聘低迷，失业率上升。而续请失业金人数上升表明，失业的美国人越来越难以找到新的工作。这一 趋势与失业率从7月份的4.2%升至8月份的4.3%的情况相符。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的保护主义贸易政策对企业造成打击。美国平均进口关税提高至一个世纪以来 的最高水平。美国政府8月初报告称，过去三个月，就业岗位平均每月增加3.5万个。第二季度美国国内 需求增速为2022年第四季度以来最慢的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate that policymakers are more concerned about high inflation risks than the slowdown in the labor market, leading to a slight increase in the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes reveal that "most participants believe the risks of inflation rising are greater than the risks of a slowdown in the labor market" [1] - The meeting occurred prior to the release of July's non-farm payroll data, which underperformed expectations [1] - Analysts from Danske Bank suggest that the Fed's minutes may be "somewhat outdated," resulting in a limited market reaction [1] Group 2: Market Focus - Current market attention is shifting towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday [1]

唐纳德.特朗普总统在社交媒体上再次批评美联储维持利率稳定的决定。特朗普还表示，他正在考虑就 美联储总部大楼的翻修项目对这位美联储主席提起诉讼。该项目的成本超支已引发外界关注。 从市场定价来看，全球利率概率模型显示投资者已充分计入9月降息预期，并预计年末将迎来第二次降 息。美国劳工部最新经济数据为这一预期提供支撑：7月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)环比上涨0.3%，与市 场预测值完全吻合，其中受关税影响的相关商品价格涨幅保持温和，未显现显著通胀压力。与此同时， 劳动力市场呈现放缓迹象，修正后的就业数据显示，过去三个月平均新增非农岗位数为疫情以来最低水 平。 值得注意的是，在CPI数据发布后，部分市场参与者开始押注更激进的政策调整，9月降息50个基点的 预期有所升温。 野村证券经济学家在最新研报中指出，美联储或将在9月货币政策会议上启动降息周期，首次下调幅度 为25个基点，随后于12月和次年3月各实施一次同等幅度降息。 尽管当前市场分析师对美联储政策路径的预期中值显示，未来三个月存在25个基点的降息空间，但机构 间对具体操作时点的判断仍存分歧，野村等部分投行认为实际政策调整可能延后至今年末。 美国财政部长斯科特.贝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates soon due to a slowing labor market and the assessment that tariffs pose only a short-term threat to inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation has been gradually decreasing in the absence of tariffs, and with the economic slowdown and restrictive monetary policy, inflation is expected to continue its downward trend [1] - Although tariffs may temporarily raise inflation, their long-term impact is unlikely to be significant [1] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, and further slowdown in this area is concerning [1] - A decline in the labor market can happen quickly and severely, indicating potential risks for the economy [1] Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The current economic indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policies in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in the labor market is not surprising, as indicated by both labor department data and private sector data telling a consistent story [1]