Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easing period. If there is marginal deterioration in these two aspects, it will drive up the price of gold in the short - term. If they remain stable, the market risk appetite may not decline significantly, and gold may need time to adjust and accumulate strength [1][3]. - The gold - silver ratio fluctuates around the 90 level. The short - term recovery of market risk appetite supports the silver price, but the decline of the gold price drags down the silver price. Without the resonance of their attributes, silver is difficult to have excess performance and is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short - term [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump is dissatisfied with the US - Japan auto trade deficit and may impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The negotiation deadline is July 9. The Japanese negotiation representative extended the stay in the US, but the US has not unified its stance. Japan's holding of over one trillion US Treasuries may be a bargaining chip. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote US - Canada trade negotiations, showing its dependence on the US as US - Canada trade accounts for 20% of Canada's GDP [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the tariff issue may return to the level of April 2. A wave of trade agreements is expected to be signed intensively in the last week before July 9. He also pointed out that no inflation pressure caused by tariffs has been observed, but there may be a one - time price adjustment [2]. - Germany's preliminary June CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and was flat month - on - month (expected 0.2%, May final 0.1%). The preliminary harmonized CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and increased 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, May final 0.2%) [2]. Price Logic - The price of precious metals continued to fluctuate and adjust during the day. The recent rise in risk appetite has put pressure on the gold price. Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has slightly increased, it is difficult to drive the gold price significantly. The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [34, 38] [3].

Core Viewpoint - Recent weak labor market data may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a shift towards a more accommodative policy stance, although it may still be too early for such a change [1] Group 1: Labor Market Data - The employment situation remains highly unstable, with questionable job data and significant revisions underway [1] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may delay any policy changes until July, indicating a cautious approach to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, is approaching a potential turning point in its policy, but immediate changes are not anticipated [1] - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may postpone addressing the labor market issues for another month, similar to past budgetary practices in Washington [1]

Market Overview - Optimism in Wall Street has increased due to positive U.S. employment data, overshadowing uncertainties in trade negotiations [1] - Asian markets have seen a rise in investor risk appetite following a clear political situation in South Korea [1] - European and Asian stock markets are generally up, contributing to MSCI global stock index reaching a historical high [1][3] U.S. Employment Data - U.S. ADP employment numbers for May increased by 37,000, falling short of the expected 114,000 [10] - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped by approximately 20 points, and U.S. stock futures declined [10][15] Stock Market Performance - The KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 2.7%, entering a technical bull market, with a 20% increase from its April low [5] - European stocks showed slight gains, with the DAX index up by about 1% and the CAC 40 index rising by 0.7% [13] - U.S. stock index futures were mixed, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down by approximately 0.1% [2][16] Bond and Commodity Markets - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by about 5 basis points [7] - Spot gold prices saw a slight increase, while oil prices remained nearly unchanged [9][10] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrency prices were mixed, with Bitcoin experiencing a minor decline of about 0.3% [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the labor market data highlights the inherent weakness of the New Zealand economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives suggests that it is "completely reasonable" for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 50 basis points at some point, indicating concerns about the labor market and a potential recession [1] Labor Market Insights - Labor market data indicates that the economy is gradually slipping into a recession, highlighting the need for potential monetary policy adjustments [1]