人民财讯9月18日电，当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是继2024年降息100个基点后今年的首次降息。政策制定者的预测表明未来 两次会议有望进一步降息。瑞银财富管理大中华区投资总监及亚太区宏观经济主管胡一帆对此表示，展 望未来，基准情景下，美联储到2026年第一季度有望进一步降息75个基点，预计美联储或继续优先考虑 劳动力市场的疲软，而不是通胀暂时上升的可能。在下行情景下，如果劳动力市场疲软被证明更严重或 更持久，美联储可能会降息200-300个基点，这可能会使利率低至1.0-1.5%。 ...

新华财经悉尼9月18日电（记者李晓渝）澳大利亚统计局18日公布的数据显示，经季节性因素调整， 2025年8月该国失业率维持在4.2%不变。分析人士认为，澳就业人数增长低于预期，该国劳动力市场再 次走弱。 最新数据显示，经季节性因素调整，今年8月澳大利亚就业人数环比减少5400人，同比增长约1.5%，至 1462.65万人。失业人数环比减少大约0.1%，同比增长约4.5%，至64.74万人。月度工作小时数环比减少 0.4%，就业不足率降低0.1个百分点至5.7%。 而从趋势性数据看，8月澳大利亚失业率上升至4.3%，就业人数环比增长约0.1%，同比增长约1.7%，至 1464.3万人。失业人数环比增加大约0.6%，同比增长约6.5%，至65.23万人。月度工作小时数环比增长 0.1%，就业不足率降低0.1个百分点至5.8%。 统计局劳工统计主管肖恩·克里克（Sean Crick）表示，经季节性因素调整后的8月月度工作小时数环比 减少主要是受到当月全职就业人数减少的影响。 西太平洋银行经济学家瑞安·威尔斯（Ryan Wells）表示，8月澳大利亚就业人数意外下降，低于市场普 遍预期。就业人数的3个月平均年增长率为 ...

常被称为"债券之王"的冈德拉克表示，美联储降息25个基点是"正确之举"，但他警告说，任何激进的宽松政策 都可能引发通胀，"我认为存在过度宽松的风险"。他指出，近期就业增长数据被下修，劳动力市场也出现混 乱。他预计美联储将在10月会议上再次降息。 当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，符合市场预期，这是美 联储今年以来的首次降息。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌47美分，收于每 桶64.05美元，跌幅为0.73%；11月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌52美分，收于每桶67.95美元，跌幅为 0.76%。国际油价结束三连涨。 东海期货认为，尽管利率下降通常会提振能源需求，但投资者更关注决策者对劳动力市场疲软加剧的警告。另 外此前市场已大体消化了25bp的降息预期，这导致部分针对更大幅度降息的对冲头寸被解除，美元走强也降低 了商品整体吸引力。油价近期将更关注后续库存情况，短期下方仍有支撑。 ...

机构调查显示，年轻群体和X世代（1965-1980年生）的消费支出增长尤为疲软，这与跳槽涨薪幅度缩 小的现象相吻合，预示着未来消费动能可能减弱。预计美联储将在本周采取降息措施以支撑就业市场， 投资者应密切关注劳动力市场的后续变化，这关乎消费能否持续提供经济支撑。 与此同时，美国劳工统计局发布的进口价格数据显示，8月进口价格环比上涨0.3%，较6月修正后的 0.2%涨幅进一步扩大，远超市场预期的下降0.1%。这是自1月以来的最大环比涨幅，显示外国企业在特 朗普政府关税政策实施后并未降低产品定价。非燃料进口价格环比上涨0.4%，扭转了前月的停滞态 势；燃料进口价格则环比下降0.8%，前值为上涨2.5%。同比来看，8月进口价格与去年同期持平。 在出口方面，8月出口价格环比上涨0.3%，涨幅与7月持平，且高于市场预期的零增长。非农产品出口 价格上涨0.3%，主要受消费品、非农工业供应品及材料、资本货物和机动车辆价格上涨推动。农产品 出口价格环比持平，水果价格上涨抵消了坚果和大豆价格下跌的影响。同比来看，8月出口价格上涨 3.4%，显示海外需求持续稳健。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月16日电（崔凯）美国商务 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a strong consensus among traders [1] - The upcoming summary of economic projections will provide guidance on the Fed's interest rate outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2026 and 2027, with a debate on whether there will be one or two additional cuts [2] - The previous forecast indicated two cuts with an unemployment rate projected at 4.5% by year-end, suggesting a stable unemployment outlook despite rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with payroll employment growth averaging only 30,000 per month over the last three months, raising concerns about potential further deterioration [5][6] - The market anticipates a decline in rates not only this year but also in 2026 and 2027, with federal funds futures indicating a drop to around 3% by the end of next year [7] - There is a belief that the current financial conditions are already very accommodative, and the economy is not in a severe downturn, which may temper the extent of future rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The market perceives the reasons for cutting rates as compelling, with inflation impacts from tariffs being smaller than expected and labor market weakness being significant [11] - There is uncertainty regarding how far the Fed will go with rate cuts in the medium to long term, with some market participants potentially being overly optimistic [12] - The influence of the Trump administration on the Fed's independence could lead to lower rates but also higher inflation [13] Group 4 - The upcoming meeting is expected to have a consensus on the direction of rates, with minimal dissent anticipated regarding the decision to cut rates [16][17] - The presence of diverse views within the Federal Reserve is seen as beneficial for robust debate on monetary policy frameworks [18] - The dynamics of the meeting involve discussions on the economy and monetary policy, with all members reviewing the same information, leading to generally small disagreements [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank economists expect the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts in the coming months due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Predictions - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will announce its first rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting [1] - Deutsche Bank has increased its forecast for rate cuts in 2025 to three times, while Morgan Stanley predicts consecutive cuts in September, October, December, and January, lowering the upper limit of the target rate to 3.5% [1][1] Economic Conditions - Economists note that slowing inflation and a weak labor market create space for the Federal Reserve to move towards a neutral policy stance more decisively [1] - The labor market's deterioration is expected to lead to further rate cuts in April and July of next year [1] Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of quarterly rate cuts of 25 basis points until December 2026, bringing rates below 3% [1] - Deutsche Bank's team believes there will be no further cuts next year, but sees potential for more cuts in 2026 due to inflation and labor market expectations [1]

Group 1 - Economists from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at a faster pace in the coming months due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank has increased its forecast for rate cuts in the remainder of 2025 to three times, up from its previous expectation [1] - Morgan Stanley economists anticipate consecutive rate cuts at four meetings until January of next year [1]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利经济学家团队最新预测显示，美联储将在明年1月前的连续四次会议上 实施降息操作，这一判断基于通胀持续放缓及劳动力市场显现疲软态势，为该央行加快宽松步伐提供了 空间。市场普遍预期美联储将在下周会议上完成首次降息，幅度为25个基点，交易员们已押注10月和12 月会议将进一步降息。 对于本月是否应进一步降息50个基点，大摩的经济学家持反对态度，理由是当前失业率仍处相对低位， 且联邦基金利率在去年下调1个百分点(100个基点)后，目前已更接近中性水平，无需采取更激进举措。 该团队进一步预测，进入一月之后，美联储将会暂时按兵不动，先观察通胀在第一季度惯常出现的上 行'噪音'。他们写道："等这股噪音散去，我们预期随着劳动力市场继续恶化，美联储将在4月和7月进 一步降息。" 值得注意的是，尽管当前降息速度预测较此前"今年9月起、每季度降息25个基点至2026年底、利率降至 3%以下"的版本明显加快，但摩根士丹利仍维持最终利率水平的预测不变。 尽管市场定价显示多数投资者认为美联储在12月后将暂停降息，2026年首次降息或于4月启动，但摩根 士丹利却提出不同路径——预计借贷成本将在今年9月、10月、 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation data for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the largest rise since January, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, with significant increases in housing costs and food prices, particularly a 4.5% surge in tomato prices [2][3] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims reaching the highest level since October 2021, suggesting a potential increase in layoffs and a shift in the labor market balance [2][3] Group 2 - The interplay of rising inflation and a weakening labor market presents a complex policy challenge for the Federal Reserve, with a low probability of a significant rate cut in September [3] - The increase in inflation is attributed to the transfer of rising costs from tariffs on imported goods to consumers, raising concerns about potential stagflation risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential decision-making should no longer be viewed through the lens of preventive rate cuts, but rather as a race against a "slightly lagging" curve, with the possibility of a more significant rate cut and dovish signals than expected due to persistent weak employment and increasing political pressure [4][11]. Group 1: Political Shift vs Economic Shift - Fed Chair Powell has undergone a significant political shift, moving from confidence in the labor market to concerns about its slowdown, influenced by political dynamics rather than purely economic data [5][11]. - The political cost of maintaining "price stability" is rising, leading to expectations of a more aggressive rate cut in September [4][18]. Group 2: Employment Data and Its Implications - The recent downward revisions in employment data, including a significant adjustment of 91,100 jobs, provide Powell with a strong data-driven rationale for a substantial rate cut [13][15]. - The credibility of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is declining, with officials expressing concerns over the reliability of employment data, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [12][13]. Group 3: Rate Cut Consequences - A potential rate cut of 50 basis points in September and a total of 100 basis points by year-end are plausible, despite inflation concerns, as the political cost of maintaining current policies increases [18][20]. - The long-term implications of rate cuts could lead to "re-inflation" risks, complicating the fiscal landscape and potentially undermining the Fed's independence [19][20].