Core Viewpoint - OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have agreed to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking an early end to the previously set voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day due to concerns over potential supply disruptions related to Russia [1] Group 1: Production Decisions - Eight member countries of OPEC+ have been increasing production since April, with an increase of 138,000 barrels per day, followed by an increase of 411,000 barrels per day from May to July, exceeding their planned targets [1] - The planned increase for August is 548,000 barrels per day, indicating a continued effort to restore market share [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The decision to increase production is attributed to healthy economic conditions and low inventory levels [1] - Despite the increase in production, crude oil prices remain high due to seasonal demand growth, with Brent crude futures closing near $70 per barrel on August 1, up from approximately $58 per barrel in April [1] Group 3: Future Meetings and Considerations - The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for September 7, where discussions may focus on managing the current voluntary production cut arrangement of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which is planned to be maintained until the end of next year [1] - Industry insiders suggest that the decision to continue increasing production next month could potentially lead to a decline in oil prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of volatility, and an intraday view of weak volatility [1][5] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - frame Views - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is weakly volatile, and the reference view is a weak run [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ started to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the production increase has not reached the target. OPEC's June production increased by 349,000 barrels per day, and the 8 countries in the agreement's production - increase period increased production by 394,000 barrels per day [5] - Macro - environment: Macro sentiment has weakened due to Trump's proposed tariff collection in the US, and supply pressure is prominent. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Market Performance and Forecast - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]

随着石油输出国组织（OPEC+）再度大幅增产，该组织提前一年完全逆转2023年11月由核心成员国实 施的220万桶/日自愿减产措施。不过比起眼下，市场更关注的是OPEC+未来的决策：另一批高达每日 166万桶的供应量目前仍处于暂停状态，原计划将持续至2026年底。关于这部分产能的未来，OPEC+代 表并未给出更多确定性。官员们表示，联盟是否会继续恢复这部分产量将取决于市场状况。下一次评估 会议定于9月7日举行，在此之前，市场的猜测和观望情绪或将持续。 再度大幅增产 石油输出国组织3日发表声明说，OPEC和非OPEC产油国中的8个主要产油国决定9月日均增产54.7万 桶。沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举行 线上会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 声明说，鉴于当前市场基本面稳健，石油库存处于低位，8国决定调整产量。同时，8国将根据市场情况 灵活调整增产节奏，以维护石油市场稳定。上述国家8月日均增产54.8万桶。上述8国2023年11月宣布日 均220万桶的自愿减产措施，此后减产措施多次延期，于2024年12月延长至2025年3月底。8国今年3月决 定自4月1日起 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】8月4日早盘亚洲交易时段，因欧佩克+（OPEC+）同意9月再次大幅提高原油产量，油价有所下滑。 路透社数据显示，布伦特原油期货下跌43美分，跌幅0.62%，报每桶69.24美元；美国西得克萨斯中质原油期货报每桶66.94美元，下跌39美分，跌幅0.58%。 此前，这两个原油期货合约在周五收盘时均下跌约每桶2美元。 欧佩克+在会后声明中表示，经济形势向好、库存处于低位是其做出这一决定的原因。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）分析师Helima Croft在一份报告中指出："自4月以来的实际增产幅度小于公布的数字，且增产原油主要来自 沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。"（闻辉） 欧佩克+于周日达成协议，9月将原油日产量提高54.7万桶，这是其一系列加速增产举措中的最新动作，旨在夺回市场份额。路透社报道指出，此次增产标志 着欧佩克+最大规模的减产份额已全部提前逆转，此外，阿联酋的产量还将单独增加，增幅约为250万桶/日，约占全球需求的2.4%。 ...

Core Insights - The macro uncertainty in the crude oil market has increased in August, with geopolitical tensions easing but tariff negotiations remaining unpredictable [1] - OPEC+ has completed its exit from the production cut plan and is likely to accelerate production in August, leading to significant supply pressure [1] - Despite the supply pressure, the current demand during the consumption peak season is expected to provide support for prices, making it difficult for oil prices to decline significantly [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has shown a lack of actual motivation to increase production at current price levels, with June's actual production increase falling short of expectations [1] - The short-term outlook suggests that while oil prices may rise due to seasonal demand, the supply pressure will limit the upside potential [1] - The main contract price for crude oil is expected to range around a specific level, with a recommendation to maintain long positions, targeting a resistance level near 520 [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of the peak season, crude oil demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to new macro and geopolitical positives [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: The JMMC meeting did not make suggestions on OPEC's production policy. Attention should be paid to whether the eight countries will continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day. Trump set a new 10 - 12 - day deadline for Russia. If no agreement is reached, secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russian oil. From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. The sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US needs further observation. OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the withdrawal of the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6][7] 2. Industry News - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member states to fully comply with quotas. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery action [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with different data sources such as wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][31] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, but the actual release of crude oil production is slow, leading to a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. The SC2509 contract opened at 517 for the week, reached a high of 520, a low of 500, and closed at 512, with a weekly decline of 2.9 or 0.56%. In the short term, it shows a fluctuating pattern [4] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [6] - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and there is still 282,000 barrels per day left to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target [6] - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth [3][7][31] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). According to IEA data, last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading volume was stable at 4.68 million barrels, while the daily export volume of refined oil decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [8] - In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil export volumes were at an abnormally low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's export volume showed a downward trend, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity [8] - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap of Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel starting from September 2. As of July 6, 2025, the average daily export volume of Russian seaborne crude oil in the four - week period decreased by 3% compared with the previous four weeks, indicating a continuous weakness in Russian crude oil exports [8] 2.3 United States: Stable Production - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active rigs in the U.S. was 415, a decrease of 7 compared with the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 168, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week [9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that the U.S. crude oil production will decrease to about 13.37 million barrels per day next year, down from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year [9] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - IEA's June monthly report: It is expected that global production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. The global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast of non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 was lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected that the supply growth of non - OPEC+ countries will reach 920,000 barrels per day by 2026 [16] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day compared with the previous forecast, reaching 2.1 million barrels per day [16] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply of countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory: Decrease - According to OPEC's monthly report, preliminary data showed that as of April 2025, the commercial inventory of OECD's crude oil and liquids was 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [17] - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 3.369 million barrels (- 0.41%) compared with the previous week; the strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels (- 0.05%) compared with the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 419 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels (- 0.75%) compared with the previous week; the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 21.863 million barrels, an increase of 455,000 barrels (+2.13%) compared with the previous week [17] 2.6 Consumption: Weak - OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, maintaining the expected growth of 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA report showed that the recent oil demand has slowed down significantly, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 704,000 barrels per day, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 722,000 barrels per day [21] - As of June 27, the U.S. refined oil processing fee was $346 per ton, while the processing fee of Asian refineries was low at $170 per ton. In the week of July 24, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 313.57 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.79% [22] - In April, the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the operating rate of European refineries was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10%. As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the crude oil processing volume of U.S. refineries was 16.936 million barrels per day, an increase of 87,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 95.50%, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous week. As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of major refineries in China was 81.21%, the same as the previous week. As of July 23, 2025, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.04%, an increase of 0.88% compared with the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth. If the production returns to the full - quota level, there will still be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, the actual release of crude oil production is slow, and the crude oil price shows a weak and fluctuating trend. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are currently experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and seasonal demand factors [1][9][10] - Oil prices have shown a significant rebound from $64 to over $78 in a short period, but have since stabilized in a narrow range of $64-$69 for nearly a month [1][3] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, which exceeds market expectations and marks a new phase in global oil supply dynamics [7][8] Group 2 - Seasonal demand is providing short-term support for oil prices, particularly due to tight diesel supply and increased agricultural and travel-related consumption during summer [3][10] - The EU has approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on oil product imports, but the market response has been muted, suggesting skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures [5][6] - There are discrepancies in reported production increases from OPEC+, with significant differences in estimates from various sources, indicating potential challenges in accurately assessing supply impacts [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but uncertainties remain in the post - ceasefire situation [1] - The market has factored in OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025, yet the market is tight during the peak season [1] - Considering the peak consumption season and potential threats to Russian oil supply, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Suggest a strategy of buying on dips [1] - The retaliatory action by Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down geopolitical risks, but issues such as the cease - fire implementation, Iran's nuclear materials, and US sanctions on Iran's oil exports need attention [1] - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude oil inventories at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased [1] - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, and is discussing a pause in further production increases from October [1] - OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years, indicating less optimism about future demand [1] - Trump has postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st, and attention should be paid to US trade negotiations [1] - The US sanctions on Russia pose a threat to Russian oil supply, and combined with the peak season in the downstream, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.08% to 516.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 509.1 yuan/ton and a high of 520.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2032 to 12,929 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA has lowered the forecast of US crude oil production in 2025 by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the forecast of global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 [3] - IEA has lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - OPEC has maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - US EIA data shows that crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 11 [3] Supply - side and Demand - side - OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day, and production in June 2025 increased by 219,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 11 [4] - US crude oil product supply decreased, with gasoline and diesel demand decreasing on a weekly basis [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term due to rising refining processing rates to meet summer travel and power generation demand, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential further sanctions on Russia. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an expected increase in crude oil supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [2][28]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were volatile and slightly bullish. The SC2509 contract opened at 497, reached a high of 513, a low of 490, and closed at 503, with a weekly increase of 5.1 or 1.05% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **OPEC**: On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative production recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day target. The IEA increased its forecast of global oil supply this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and Saudi Arabia shows signs of accelerating production release, resulting in continuous supply pressure [5]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were at abnormally low levels, and its refined oil exports dropped to an eight - month low due to government policies. The decline in exports has raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity and increased supply - tight sentiment in the European and American markets [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [7]. - **Americas' Production Increase**: The IEA expects global oil production capacity to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. OPEC says that the supply from non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [14]. - **Inventory**: In May, global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%), strategic inventory by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%), commercial inventory by 7.07 million barrels (+1.69%), and Cushing area inventory by 464,000 barrels (+2.24%) [15]. - **Consumption**: OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, while the IEA has lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US refinery crude processing volume decreased, and refinery operating rates declined. Refinery processing fees showed different trends in different regions, and refinery operating rates were at a low level in some areas [18][21][23]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short term, rising refining processing rates, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential sanctions on Russia provide support for crude oil prices. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an increase in supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [28].