投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 焦煤：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的相关文件，核查范围覆盖 山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产区。该文件是煤炭行业在本轮反 内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后续供应格局。不过，炼焦 煤主产区山西省在经过 2024 年的"三超整治"后，超产现象得到有效遏 制，因此本轮生产情况核查影响有待持续跟踪。整体来看，随着利多因素 不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升温，驱动焦煤主力合约大幅上行，但需警惕情 绪释放后的短期回调风险。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 黑色金属 | 日报 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 供应扰动再现，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 成本支撑强劲，焦炭持续上行 | 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：偏多思路 核心逻辑：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿 生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的消息，核查范围覆盖山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产 区。若该传闻为真，则将是煤炭行业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后 续供应格局。此外，我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目开工，也将拉动国内水泥、 钢材的长期需求。综上，随着利多因素不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升温，驱动焦煤主 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 超产整治扰动再现，煤焦维持强势运行 核心观点 焦炭：市场再传煤矿超产整治，焦煤供应收缩预期升温，带动焦炭期货大 幅走强。7 月 21 日，焦企因亏损开启焦炭现货第二轮提涨，期货市场带动 现货氛围好转。另外，近日我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目 开工，将长期拉动国内水泥、钢材终端需求，叠加反内卷题材持续发酵， 焦炭市场氛围整体乐观，主力合约维持强势运行。 焦煤：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的消息，核查范围覆盖山 西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产区。若该传闻为真，则将是煤炭行 业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后续供应格局。 此外，我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目开工，也将拉动国内 水泥、钢材的长期需求。综上，随着利多因素不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升 温，驱动焦煤主力合约大幅上行，建议维持偏多思路，关注后续国内外政 策动态。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is an oscillating approach. For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is also an oscillating approach [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: supported by strong expectations, coking coal continues to rise [1] - For coke 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: dominated by bullish factors, coke oscillates and strengthens [1] Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, and the supply side has increased marginally in the first two weeks of July. However, driven by positive news such as the US delaying the tariff exemption period and the domestic "anti - involution rectification", the market sentiment has continued to improve, driving the futures price to rebound. After General Secretary Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the market's bearish sentiment has temporarily receded. Currently, the market sentiment is good, and with the Politburo meeting in July, strong expectations dominate the market, and coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. On the night session of July 17, the main coke contract continued to operate strongly. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.25%. The cost support has strengthened, driving up the expectation of a price increase for coke. In the futures market, the supply and demand of coke have both declined, but the market is mainly driven by strong expectations. Affected by multiple positive news at home and abroad, the main coke contract maintains a strong operation and may continue to oscillate upward [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The summer national coal trading conference was held, indicating stable coal supply and demand. The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5%-6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption for 2025, with an overall balanced power supply and demand situation [1] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise, leading to a strong coal price trend. The report suggests that the long-term outlook for the sector remains optimistic, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 628 RMB/ton, up 1.06% week-on-week. The average price of mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi was 475 RMB/ton, unchanged [2] - The average temperature in 28 major cities was 31.67°C, indicating a typical seasonal pattern [3] Production and Capacity - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 62.3%, a 2.6 percentage point increase week-on-week but down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 89.90%, down 0.39 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory Levels - As of July 11, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port were 5.6 million tons, down 1.75% week-on-week but at a high level for the same period. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was 26.89 million tons, down 2.36% week-on-week [4] Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have stable earnings with an "Accumulate" rating. For instance, China Shenhua's EPS is forecasted to be 2.5 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 15 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various policies and regulatory measures across multiple sectors, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies. It details the government's efforts in promoting economic development, stabilizing the market, and enhancing regulatory efficiency. For example, the government is promoting "anti -内卷" governance, advancing "two - heavy" construction projects, adjusting fiscal and monetary policies, and making targeted adjustments in the real estate and financial sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro -基调 - Central government deploys "anti -内卷" governance in multiple industries, with various departments taking actions. A total of 4218 policies hindering unified market and fair competition have been cleared [8][9][13] - 8000 billion yuan of "two - heavy" construction project lists have been fully released, covering both "hard investment" in key fields and "soft construction" reform measures [9] - The government increases support for employment stability and raises the basic pension for retirees. The unemployment insurance stabilization and job - expansion return ratio for small, medium, and large enterprises is adjusted, and the pension for retirees is increased by 2% [10] - The "Child - Rearing Subsidy System Implementation Plan" is announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year [11] 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal incremental reserve policies are expected to be introduced in a timely manner, aiming to promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Possible measures include issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and establishing new policy - based financial instruments [14] - The Ministry of Finance adjusts the issuance rhythm of treasury bonds in the third quarter. Some varieties' issuance time is advanced, and the scale of some ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is adjusted [15] - The scope of special bonds' investment expands, from traditional infrastructure to public services, industrial upgrading, and debt resolution. Three departments allow local special bonds to be used for zero - carbon park construction [16] 3.3 Monetary Policy - The "moderately loose" monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite the stable economic performance in the first half of the year, the central bank will continue its supportive stance due to external challenges, insufficient domestic demand, and the real - estate market adjustment [19] - In June, the central bank did not conduct treasury bond trading but actively injected liquidity through multiple tools at the end of the quarter, with a total injection of 6560 billion yuan [19] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issues a new batch of QDII quotas worth 3080 million US dollars, and the scope of domestic investors in the Bond Connect "South - bound Link" is expanded to non - banking institutions [20] 3.4 Financial Supervision - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs are approved and fully subscribed in one day, with a total scale of 30 billion yuan [23] - The "pension loan" product is suspended, and China Merchants Bank is approved to establish a financial asset investment company with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan [24] - Bank wealth management valuation rectification faces a "mid - year assessment", and investors will face net - value fluctuations after the rectification [25] - The long - term assessment mechanism for state - owned commercial insurance companies is improved, with a new 5 - year cycle indicator added to the "net asset return rate" assessment [27] 3.5 Real Estate Policy - Local governments are encouraged to use real - estate regulation policy autonomy to promote the real - estate market's recovery and increase investment in new urbanization using "two - heavy" and "two - new" funds [29] - Guangzhou plans to support "commercial - to - public housing loan conversion" to relieve residents' repayment pressure. When the housing provident fund loan - to - deposit ratio is below 75%, the conversion can be initiated [30] - Jingmen, Hubei promotes the spot - housing sales policy. Newly - transferred high - quality real - estate development land will be preferentially developed using the spot - housing sales model starting from January 1, 2026 [31] 3.6 Tariff Policy - The US lifts the export license requirements for three major global chip - design software suppliers to China [34] - China and the US are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, and US and Chinese officials are expected to meet in August to discuss trade issues [34] - The US "reciprocal tariff" is postponed to August 1. The US plans to impose tariffs on multiple countries, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Starting from August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all imported copper [35][36]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment is good, and the coking coal futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong operation [2] - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at the 2460 level [3] - The short - term hog price is expected to be slightly weak, and range trading is recommended [5] - The palm oil price is expected to be weak in the short - term [5] - The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with strong technical support in the 2900 - 2920 range [6] - The iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and short - term long positions are recommended on dips [7] - The rebar futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 1260 level [9] - The PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 7115 level [10] - The crude oil is bearish at high levels [11] - Short - term short positions on PTA at high levels are recommended [11] - Caution is advised regarding the rubber's rebound, and it is better to wait and see [12] - The short - term decline space of short - term treasury bonds is limited, and the stock - bond seesaw should be monitored [13] - Whether the medium - and long - term treasury bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen, and the July Politburo meeting should be watched [13] - The silver is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] - The gold will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern, and the dollar - gold seesaw is the main logic [14] Group 3: Summaries by Variety Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that coke daily output, capacity utilization, and inventories of coke, coking coal, and injection coal have changed. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, but the futures price has rebounded due to positive news [2] Caustic Soda - In Shandong, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda has increased, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has declined. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [3] Hog - The agricultural product wholesale price index shows an increase in pork and egg prices. However, due to supply - demand game and increasing supply pressure, the hog price is expected to be slightly weak [5] Palm Oil - Malaysia's June palm oil production decreased, imports increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Soybean Meal - Brazil's expected July soybean and soybean meal exports have increased, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to trade concerns and oil mill situations [6] Iron Ore - Global and Australian - Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. Demand has also shown some changes, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Rebar - Rebar production has decreased, inventory has continued to decline slightly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to policy expectations [8] Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward trend, production has decreased, and inventory has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9] Polypropylene - The price of polypropylene has increased, the capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has changed. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Crude Oil - OPEC is discussing pausing further production increases, and demand has been revised down. The price is bearish at high levels [11] PTA - The price of PX and PTA and relevant cash - flow costs are given. Due to weak demand and a weakening crude oil, short - term short positions at high levels are recommended [11] Rubber - The prices of Thai and Hainan rubber raw materials are provided. Supply is increasing slowly, and demand is weak. Caution is advised regarding the rebound [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term interest rates have changed, indicating tight short - term liquidity. The short - term decline space is limited [13] Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Local governments have issued a large amount of replacement bonds, and fiscal policies are active. Whether the bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen [13] Silver - Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The silver price has broken through the oscillation range, and the short - term is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] Gold - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has decreased, and the dollar index has risen. Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The gold price will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern [14]