Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: On July 30, the coke main contract closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 4.00%. The current fundamental pressure on coke is not significant, and the expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal provides cost - side support. After a short - term correction, coke futures strengthened again [3][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The main logic for the recent rise was "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification". However, the actual impact of the industry policies remains to be verified. Since the night session last Friday, the coking coal main contract has corrected. After the policy expectations were fulfilled, coking coal futures continued to adjust widely. In the short term, the release of positive sentiment led to a phased price correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 62.81 billion yuan, including 10.1 billion yuan of general bonds and 52.71 billion yuan of special bonds [7]. - On July 30, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 5 clean coal was 86.8 US dollars/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at 95.2 US dollars/ton [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,420 yuan/ton | +7.58% | +16.39% | - 15.98% | - 28.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,390 yuan/ton | +0.72% | +19.83% | - 14.20% | - 24.86% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 yuan/ton | +20.39% | +43.35% | +5.08% | - 22.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,480 yuan/ton | +0.68% | +22.31% | - 0.67% | - 28.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,650 yuan/ton | +10.00% | +32.00% | +7.84% | - 17.09% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.5 yuan/ton | +4.00% | 1,722.0 yuan/ton | 1,632.0 yuan/ton | 54,649 | 7,422 | 29,358 | - 1,823 | | Coking Coal | | 1,117.0 yuan/ton | +2.71% | 1,172.0 yuan/ton | 1,061.0 yuan/ton | 1,748,394 | 157,517 | 307,743 | - 29,947 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including the inventories of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and others, as well as charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][15][17][20][23][26][27][28][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The coke market has strong potential. With low fundamental pressure and cost - side support from coking coal, coke futures are expected to maintain strength after a short - term correction [3][31]. - **Coking Coal**: In the short term, the market will experience wide - range adjustments due to policy expectations and the release of positive sentiment. In the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise as the industry undergoes capacity optimization and upgrading [4][32].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On July 29, the main coke contract closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.62%. The trading volume was 47,227 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. Positive news supported the low - level rebound of coke futures, but after the short - term release of optimistic sentiment, coke futures entered a phased correction due to the unverified impact of coal mine over - production rectification on coking coal output [5][30]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 29, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,120.5 points, with an intraday decline of 6.63%. The trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,177 yuan/ton. The price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification", but the actual impact of these policies remains to be verified. In the short term, there is still a risk of correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise after the capacity optimization and upgrading of the coal industry [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Real Estate**: From July 21 to July 27, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4137 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 34.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 2.1341 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On July 29, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, and all 1.0048 million tons were sold at a price of 78.5 US dollars/ton, excluding tax. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 360 days after payment, with the final supply date being July 29, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port had a current price of 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.93%. At Qingdao Port, the price was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%, a month - on - month increase of 20.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.58% [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, a month - on - month increase of 38.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.69%. The Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%, a month - on - month increase of 22.31%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.00%, a month - on - month increase of 32.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.84% [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,633 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.62%. The highest price was 1,639 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,573.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 47,227 lots, a decrease of 15,715 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,120.5 points, with a decline of 6.63%. The highest price was 1,129.5 points, the lowest was 1,050 points, the trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal (including independent coking plants, steel mills' coking plants, ports), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [14][26][29]. 3.5 Future Outlook The views on coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term correction risk and long - term improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The price of caustic soda futures continues to rise, driven by policy expectations, industry chain resonance, and cost support from low liquid chlorine prices, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Expectations - Recent market discussions around "anti-involution" reforms have led to a rebound in commodity markets, with supply-side reform expectations boosting market confidence [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to implement a new growth plan for ten key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity [1]. Group 2: Industry Chain Resonance - The chemical industry outlook has improved due to policies aimed at phasing out outdated hazardous chemical production processes, leading to significant price increases in upstream and downstream products such as alumina, coking coal, and soda ash [2]. - Coking coal prices are rising, providing strong cost support for caustic soda, while alumina, a major downstream product, is experiencing price increases due to policy expectations and structural supply-demand imbalances [2]. Group 3: Current Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, 2025, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, with production at 809,700 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase [4]. - Liquid caustic soda inventory is at 383,900 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.56%, while flake caustic soda inventory is at 24,000 tons, also reflecting a month-on-month increase [8]. Group 4: Demand Side - The alumina industry maintains a high production level, supporting caustic soda demand, while the viscose staple fiber sector is also showing slight improvements in production and operating rates [12]. - Non-alumina demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with some resistance to high prices from certain enterprises [12]. Group 5: Cost and Profit Analysis - Liquid chlorine prices in Shandong are maintaining a low level, providing some cost support for caustic soda production [17]. - The overall profit margins for the chlor-alkali industry are at a low point but have shown slight recovery, although rising coal prices and high electricity loads may increase production costs [17]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Short-term market sentiment is driven by expectations of phasing out old production facilities, with improved downstream operations and a potential increase in inventory replenishment as the market atmosphere warms [21]. - Future attention should be given to the impact of new production capacity and the implementation of anti-involution policies on the supply side, as well as the potential negative effects of further declines in liquid chlorine prices on caustic soda costs and profits [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea. Coking coal remains strong due to over - production rectification support, and coke operates at a high level due to strong cost support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, on July 22, there were documents on coal mine production verification and rectification of over - producing coal mines in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang. This will change the subsequent supply pattern of coking coal. However, the over - production in Shanxi has been curbed after the "Three - Over Rectification" in 2024, so the impact of this policy needs continuous tracking. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment is optimistic, driving the main contract of coking coal to rise significantly [5]. Coke (J) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The news of coal mine over - production rectification has increased the expectation of coking coal supply contraction, driving the coke futures to strengthen. On July 21, coke enterprises started the second round of price increase for coke spot due to losses, and the futures market has improved the spot atmosphere. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project has started, which will boost the long - term demand for cement and steel. The anti - involution theme continues to ferment, and with the positive news from the demand side, the coke market is optimistic, and the main contract maintains a strong operation [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 焦煤：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的相关文件，核查范围覆盖 山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产区。该文件是煤炭行业在本轮反 内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后续供应格局。不过，炼焦 煤主产区山西省在经过 2024 年的"三超整治"后，超产现象得到有效遏 制，因此本轮生产情况核查影响有待持续跟踪。整体来看，随着利多因素 不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升温，驱动焦煤主力合约大幅上行，但需警惕情 绪释放后的短期回调风险。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 黑色金属 | 日报 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 供应扰动再现，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 成本支撑强劲，焦炭持续上行 | 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：偏多思路 核心逻辑：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿 生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的消息，核查范围覆盖山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产 区。若该传闻为真，则将是煤炭行业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后 续供应格局。此外，我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目开工，也将拉动国内水泥、 钢材的长期需求。综上，随着利多因素不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升温，驱动焦煤主 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 超产整治扰动再现，煤焦维持强势运行 核心观点 焦炭：市场再传煤矿超产整治，焦煤供应收缩预期升温，带动焦炭期货大 幅走强。7 月 21 日，焦企因亏损开启焦炭现货第二轮提涨，期货市场带动 现货氛围好转。另外，近日我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目 开工，将长期拉动国内水泥、钢材终端需求，叠加反内卷题材持续发酵， 焦炭市场氛围整体乐观，主力合约维持强势运行。 焦煤：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的消息，核查范围覆盖山 西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产区。若该传闻为真，则将是煤炭行 业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后续供应格局。 此外，我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目开工，也将拉动国内 水泥、钢材的长期需求。综上，随着利多因素不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升 温，驱动焦煤主力合约大幅上行，建议维持偏多思路，关注后续国内外政 策动态。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is an oscillating approach. For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is also an oscillating approach [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: supported by strong expectations, coking coal continues to rise [1] - For coke 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: dominated by bullish factors, coke oscillates and strengthens [1] Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, and the supply side has increased marginally in the first two weeks of July. However, driven by positive news such as the US delaying the tariff exemption period and the domestic "anti - involution rectification", the market sentiment has continued to improve, driving the futures price to rebound. After General Secretary Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the market's bearish sentiment has temporarily receded. Currently, the market sentiment is good, and with the Politburo meeting in July, strong expectations dominate the market, and coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. On the night session of July 17, the main coke contract continued to operate strongly. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.25%. The cost support has strengthened, driving up the expectation of a price increase for coke. In the futures market, the supply and demand of coke have both declined, but the market is mainly driven by strong expectations. Affected by multiple positive news at home and abroad, the main coke contract maintains a strong operation and may continue to oscillate upward [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The summer national coal trading conference was held, indicating stable coal supply and demand. The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5%-6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption for 2025, with an overall balanced power supply and demand situation [1] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise, leading to a strong coal price trend. The report suggests that the long-term outlook for the sector remains optimistic, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 628 RMB/ton, up 1.06% week-on-week. The average price of mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi was 475 RMB/ton, unchanged [2] - The average temperature in 28 major cities was 31.67°C, indicating a typical seasonal pattern [3] Production and Capacity - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 62.3%, a 2.6 percentage point increase week-on-week but down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 89.90%, down 0.39 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory Levels - As of July 11, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port were 5.6 million tons, down 1.75% week-on-week but at a high level for the same period. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was 26.89 million tons, down 2.36% week-on-week [4] Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have stable earnings with an "Accumulate" rating. For instance, China Shenhua's EPS is forecasted to be 2.5 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 15 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various policies and regulatory measures across multiple sectors, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies. It details the government's efforts in promoting economic development, stabilizing the market, and enhancing regulatory efficiency. For example, the government is promoting "anti -内卷" governance, advancing "two - heavy" construction projects, adjusting fiscal and monetary policies, and making targeted adjustments in the real estate and financial sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro -基调 - Central government deploys "anti -内卷" governance in multiple industries, with various departments taking actions. A total of 4218 policies hindering unified market and fair competition have been cleared [8][9][13] - 8000 billion yuan of "two - heavy" construction project lists have been fully released, covering both "hard investment" in key fields and "soft construction" reform measures [9] - The government increases support for employment stability and raises the basic pension for retirees. The unemployment insurance stabilization and job - expansion return ratio for small, medium, and large enterprises is adjusted, and the pension for retirees is increased by 2% [10] - The "Child - Rearing Subsidy System Implementation Plan" is announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year [11] 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal incremental reserve policies are expected to be introduced in a timely manner, aiming to promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Possible measures include issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and establishing new policy - based financial instruments [14] - The Ministry of Finance adjusts the issuance rhythm of treasury bonds in the third quarter. Some varieties' issuance time is advanced, and the scale of some ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is adjusted [15] - The scope of special bonds' investment expands, from traditional infrastructure to public services, industrial upgrading, and debt resolution. Three departments allow local special bonds to be used for zero - carbon park construction [16] 3.3 Monetary Policy - The "moderately loose" monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite the stable economic performance in the first half of the year, the central bank will continue its supportive stance due to external challenges, insufficient domestic demand, and the real - estate market adjustment [19] - In June, the central bank did not conduct treasury bond trading but actively injected liquidity through multiple tools at the end of the quarter, with a total injection of 6560 billion yuan [19] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issues a new batch of QDII quotas worth 3080 million US dollars, and the scope of domestic investors in the Bond Connect "South - bound Link" is expanded to non - banking institutions [20] 3.4 Financial Supervision - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs are approved and fully subscribed in one day, with a total scale of 30 billion yuan [23] - The "pension loan" product is suspended, and China Merchants Bank is approved to establish a financial asset investment company with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan [24] - Bank wealth management valuation rectification faces a "mid - year assessment", and investors will face net - value fluctuations after the rectification [25] - The long - term assessment mechanism for state - owned commercial insurance companies is improved, with a new 5 - year cycle indicator added to the "net asset return rate" assessment [27] 3.5 Real Estate Policy - Local governments are encouraged to use real - estate regulation policy autonomy to promote the real - estate market's recovery and increase investment in new urbanization using "two - heavy" and "two - new" funds [29] - Guangzhou plans to support "commercial - to - public housing loan conversion" to relieve residents' repayment pressure. When the housing provident fund loan - to - deposit ratio is below 75%, the conversion can be initiated [30] - Jingmen, Hubei promotes the spot - housing sales policy. Newly - transferred high - quality real - estate development land will be preferentially developed using the spot - housing sales model starting from January 1, 2026 [31] 3.6 Tariff Policy - The US lifts the export license requirements for three major global chip - design software suppliers to China [34] - China and the US are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, and US and Chinese officials are expected to meet in August to discuss trade issues [34] - The US "reciprocal tariff" is postponed to August 1. The US plans to impose tariffs on multiple countries, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Starting from August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all imported copper [35][36]