Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a treasury bond futures morning report released by Dayue Futures on June 6, 2025, covering market review, bond analysis, and future outlook [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts showed different trends. The 30 - year contract (TL2509) dropped 0.16%, while the 5 - year (TF2509) and 2 - year (TS2509) contracts rose 0.02% and 0.04% respectively [7] - The T2509 contract closed at 108.720, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 88,700 and an open interest of 293,116 [7] Group 3: Bond Analysis - Bank - to - bank major interest rates showed a mixed trend. Short - term bonds continued to warm up, with yields dropping over 1bp, while the 10 - year and above bonds were sluggish. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts rose 0.16%, 0.02%, and 0.04% respectively, but the 10 - year contract declined 0.01% [3] - On June 5, the central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were - 0.0721, - 0.0084, and - 0.0138 respectively, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was 0.6076, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] - The available deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 13,594 billion, 14,935 billion, and 23,599 billion respectively, showing a neutral position [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line was upward, showing a bullish signal [3] - The TS main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The TF main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The T main contract had a net long position with decreasing longs [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, and the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. In April, the issuance of government bonds helped accelerate the growth of social financing scale. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements. After the impact of the tariff war suspension was quickly released and the reserve - requirement and interest - rate cuts were implemented, the capital continued to be loose. With the central bank maintaining quantitative tools, the momentum for continuous adjustment in the bond market was limited. In the future, Treasury bond futures may fluctuate [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall view of "interval oscillation". The short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts is low [1]. - Overall, it is expected that treasury bond futures will mainly maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term. The bottom of treasury bond futures has strong support, but the upside space is limited [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side, and the overall view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is oscillation on the weak side, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued the oscillatory trend yesterday with narrow - range consolidation throughout the day. In the long - term, policy is moderately loose, and the current treasury bond price basically has no implied interest rate cut expectation, so the bottom of treasury bond futures has strong support. However, due to the need to wait for economic indicators to verify the policy effect, the credit demand of the domestic real - sector is weak, and the hawkish Fed's monetary policy suppresses the exchange rate, the short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts in China is low, and the upside space of treasury bond futures is limited [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of treasury bond futures is range - bound. In the short - term, they will mainly be in a consolidation phase. In the medium - to - long - term, the basis for an upward trend is relatively solid with strong bottom support [4]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to the downside". The reference view is "range - bound", and the core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, so it will mainly be in short - term sideways consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "sideways to the downside", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "range - bound". In the medium - to - long - term, due to high external uncertainties, the policy will continue to boost domestic demand, the monetary environment will be supportive, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts, so the upward basis of treasury bond futures is firm. In the short - term, the easing of external tariff wars and the need to test the effects of the central bank's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts lead to insufficient upward momentum. However, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted by policy interest rates, so the downward space is limited [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the current situation of the treasury bond futures market and predicts that the treasury bond futures may fluctuate at a high level in the future. The main reasons include the weakening of official and Caixin PMI data, the central bank's clear attitude of liquidity support, the optimistic expectation of the capital market after the May Day holiday, the impact of the US tariff on the global equity and commodity markets, and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. Meanwhile, the central bank's MLF operation and the possible reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates also affect the market [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, and the yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds mostly declined. The overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both increased, with the former rising by more than 24 basis points and the latter rising by nearly 2 basis points [3]. - On April 30, the central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.50%. After deducting the 108 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on the same day, the net investment was 422.8 billion yuan [3]. - The main contract price, change rate, trading volume, open interest, daily position increase, and CTD bonds of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures are presented in the table. For example, the price of T2506 is 109.000, with a decline of 0.06%, a trading volume of 91,800, an open interest of 320,953, and a daily position increase of 5,273 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The official and Caixin PMI data both weakened, but the central bank's attitude of liquidity support is clear, and the expectation of the capital market after the May Day holiday is relatively optimistic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the trade war and the subsequent policy trends [3]. - In April, the PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank mentioned the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates to promote the decline of the comprehensive social financing cost. The financial data in the first quarter was stable and positive. In March, the CPI declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. The central bank conducted a scaled - down and flat - price renewal of MLF [5]. 3.3 Basis Analysis - The basis of TS main contract is - 0.320, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of TF main contract is - 0.0400, also indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of T main contract is 0.0341, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of TL main contract is 0.1995, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis The balances of deliverable bonds for TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which is neutral [4]. 3.5 Market Analysis TS, TF, and T main contracts are all running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. 3.6 Main Position Analysis The net position of TS main contract is long, and the long position increases. The net position of TF main contract is long, and the long position increases. The net position of T main contract is long, but the long position decreases [5]. 3.7 Expectation Due to various factors such as the decline of PMI, the possible reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, the impact of US tariffs, and the issuance of special treasury bonds, the treasury bond futures may fluctuate at a high level in the future [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting the short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.49% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.08%. The performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good, with most yields declining [3]. - The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 28, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank has mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. Due to the central bank's cautious policy attitude and the uncertainty of subsequent fiscal policies, the volatility of the bond market may increase [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: Spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, and the performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good [3]. - **Funding situation**: On March 28, the central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts showed that the spot bonds were at a discount to the futures, which was bearish, while the basis of the TL main contract showed that the spot bonds were at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The balances of deliverable bonds for TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Market trend**: The main contracts of TS, TF, and T were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main positions**: The net positions of TS and TF main contracts were long, with an increase in long positions, while the net position of the T main contract was long, with a decrease in long positions [5]. - **Expectation**: The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method and mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond market volatility may increase due to policy and fiscal uncertainties [5]. 2. Market Review - **Contract details**: For the T2506 contract, the current price was 107.875, down 0.08%, with a trading volume of 124,200 and an open interest of 296,151; for the TF2506 contract, the current price was 105.650, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 110,400 and an open interest of 257,868; for the TS2506 contract, the current price was 102.446, unchanged, with a trading volume of 56,900 and an open interest of 150,994; for the TL2506 contract, the current price was 116.00, down 0.49%, with a trading volume of 166,100 and an open interest of 164,282 [8]. 3. Spot Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and the maturity yields of inter - bank treasury bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [9][13] 4. Basis Analysis - There are basis data for T2506, TF2506, and TS2506 CTD bonds over a period from September 2024 to February 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [15][16][17]