智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产研究发布2025中国房地产投资前景排行榜。就2025年TOP5位次变化来看， 上海、北京以绝对优势继续排名前二，两地在供给侧和需求侧方面均具有极为显著的优势。超2000万的常住 人口保障了巨大的自然住房更替需求，大量的外来人口使其拥有着巨量刚性住房需求，而大多家庭人均住房 面积不足38平方米的现况，也使其拥有着更大的住房改善空间。再加之两地在"00年代"已渡过了新房成交规 模的高位时期，早已先于全国楼市进入供求平衡的新阶段，如北京1000万平方米左右的年交易量，对于现阶 段北京存量住房规模而言，相当于住房更替周期超过80年。 两地已经连续把持全国房地产投资前景排行榜TOP2的位置达到11年，上一次有城市挑战二者地位，还是在 2015年楼市交易规模急剧扩张时的2015年，彼时广州凭借更高的交易规模超过北京跻身第二。 中国城市房地产投资前景排行榜 | | | | | 二克面瑞·研究中心 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | FE | 10 | | | 分前景 | | | 前景排名 | 能级 | ...

Group 1 - The central theme of the recent "Central Urban Work Conference" emphasizes the importance of urban development for improving people's lives, highlighting the slogan "People's city built by the people, for the people" [2][9] - The conference marks a significant decision-making event in China's urban development, with only two such meetings held under the central government since the reform and opening up [2][3] - Urbanization in China has been unprecedented in scale and speed, with 694 cities and 27 cities projected to exceed a GDP of 1 trillion yuan in 2024, contributing significantly to the national economy [3][4] Group 2 - The improvement of urban infrastructure and public services is a key focus, with an emphasis on enhancing living conditions, education, and healthcare, particularly in county-level cities [4][6] - The housing sector has seen remarkable achievements, with over 430 billion square meters of urban housing valued at approximately 430 trillion yuan, representing a significant portion of urban residents' wealth [6][7] - A large-scale urban housing security system has been established, providing over 68 million units of affordable housing, addressing the housing needs of 170 million people [7] Group 3 - Urban development goals include innovation, livability, beauty, resilience, civilization, and intelligence, reflecting the aspirations of the people for a better life [5][6] - The urbanization rate has increased from 53% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with a projected 2 billion rural residents expected to migrate to urban areas, indicating a shift towards a more integrated urban-rural development model [8][9] - The construction industry plays a crucial role in urban development, with a significant workforce of over 70 million, primarily composed of migrant workers, contributing to the urban landscape [9][10]

Core Insights - China's urbanization is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with a focus on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding them [1][3] - The urban population is projected to grow from 770 million in 2014 to 940 million by 2024, with a slower growth rate in the latter half of the decade [1][3] - The urbanization rate has increased from 55.8% in 2014 to 67% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 1.1 percentage points [1][3] Urbanization Rate Implications - The current urbanization rate of 67% indicates a shift from high-speed growth to a more stable phase, with expectations of reaching 80% by 2050 [2][3] - Historical data shows that countries typically maintain growth for several years after surpassing a 65% urbanization rate, suggesting potential for continued urbanization in China [2][3] Future Projections - Urbanization speed is expected to decline to an average increase of 0.70 percentage points per year before 2035, yet this remains above the global average [3][9] - Approximately 10 million rural residents are anticipated to migrate to urban areas annually during this period [3][9] Economic Impact - A 1 percentage point increase in urbanization rate can generate over 200 billion yuan in consumer demand and drive trillions in new investment [3][9] - Urbanization is linked to job creation, investment stimulation, and the expansion of domestic demand [3][9] Policy and Strategic Initiatives - The "Five-Year Action Plan" aims to enhance the integration of rural migrants into urban settings and improve public service accessibility [4][9] - Key actions include promoting urbanization in potential areas, developing modern urban clusters, and enhancing urban resilience [9] Challenges and Considerations - There is a significant gap between the registered urban population and the actual urban population, with a difference of about 18 percentage points [8] - The aging rural population and the hollowing out of villages are emerging challenges that require strategic resource allocation and village layout optimization [9]

Supply Perspective - The peak of "absolute increment" in China's real estate supply has passed, transitioning from an expansion phase to a stock phase[3] - The average number of residential units per household reached 0.70 for commercial housing and 1.17 for residential housing by 2023, indicating a shift towards quality and spaciousness in housing[14] - The per capita new housing starts per thousand people dropped to approximately 4.9 in 2023 and is expected to decline further to 3.8 in 2024, reflecting a rationalization of new supply[25] Demand Perspective - Urbanization has driven significant housing demand, with the urbanization rate reaching about 64.6% in 2023, indicating potential for further growth[36] - The age group of 25-44 years, which constitutes the main purchasing demographic, has seen a decline in its proportion of the total population from 34.4% in 2003 to 28.2% in 2023[38] - The proportion of the population aged 65 and above has increased from 8.4% in 2003 to 15.4% in 2023, indicating a rising demand for elderly housing solutions[38] Investment Opportunities - Despite a pessimistic narrative surrounding the real estate market, there are structural opportunities driven by urbanization, aging population, and a shift towards quality housing[3] - The demand for high-quality housing is increasing, with a notable preference for "good houses" across various buyer demographics[3] Risks - Potential data discrepancies and changes in policy environments could impact market dynamics[4] - External economic factors and systemic risks within the financial system remain critical considerations for the real estate market[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity of synchronizing urbanization with agricultural modernization, highlighting the importance of both urban and rural development for national strength [1][4] - The recent Central Urban Work Conference advocates for the continued urbanization of agricultural transfer populations and the coordinated development of cities and towns, which is crucial for understanding urban-rural relationships [1][2] - Historical examples illustrate that poor management of urban-rural relationships can lead to agricultural stagnation, unemployment, and urban slums, indicating that resolving rural issues is vital for urban growth [1][2] Group 2 - From 2012 to 2024, China's urbanization rate is projected to rise from 53.1% to 67%, with the urban population increasing from 720 million to 940 million, reflecting significant changes in rural areas influenced by urban civilization [2] - The urbanization process involves the migration of agricultural populations to cities, necessitating a balance between land use for urban development and the preservation of agricultural land [2][3] - The development approach should not aim to transform rural areas into urban-like environments but rather to enhance rural characteristics and respect farmers' choices regarding their living conditions [3][4] Group 3 - The need for strict farmland protection is emphasized to ensure that agricultural modernization is not compromised by industrialization and urbanization [3] - Urban and rural development should focus on improving residents' sense of happiness and security, with cities promoting green and low-carbon initiatives while rural areas prioritize ecological livability [3] - The integration of urban and rural planning, infrastructure, and public services is essential for fostering a new pattern of urban-rural integration [4]

Consumption Insights - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 56.6% of GDP in 2024, with household consumption at 70.6% and government consumption at 29.4%[9] - The nominal growth of final consumption expenditure in 2024 was only 3.9%, the second-lowest since 1995, while actual growth was 3.7%[26] - Government consumption expenditure growth was particularly weak, with a nominal increase of just 0.7% in 2024, compared to a 5.0% increase in household consumption[26] Economic Factors - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 44.5% in 2024, down from over 50% in most years since 2011[25] - The decline in household consumption growth is attributed to slowing income growth, particularly in property and transfer income, which saw declines of 5.44% and 5.00% respectively[36] - The wealth effect has weakened due to a downturn in the real estate market, impacting consumer spending[46] Policy Recommendations - Short-term strategies to boost consumption include enhancing government fiscal capacity, increasing transfer income for residents, and improving the nominal growth environment[57] - Long-term strategies focus on reforming income distribution systems and promoting urbanization as key drivers for consumption growth[57] - Strengthening fiscal policy is essential, as local government leverage reached a historical high of 36.8% by early 2025, indicating a need for central government intervention[58] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 88% and the consumer expectation index at 89.5% as of May 2025, both below the neutral level of 100%[47] - The Engel coefficient for urban residents was 28.8% in 2024, indicating a rise in basic consumption needs relative to total consumption[49]

Core Insights - The central urban work conference marks a shift in China's urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urban development [1] - The focus is on "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," requiring tailored strategies for different regions based on population dynamics [2][3] Group 1: Urbanization Trends - China's urbanization rate stands at 67%, significantly lower than the over 80% in developed industrialized countries, indicating potential for continued urban growth [2] - The transition from rapid to stable urbanization is influenced by institutional reforms and demographic changes, particularly the aging rural population [2][3] Group 2: Regional Strategies - Cities experiencing population inflow should activate idle land and buildings to alleviate housing pressure and enhance public services [2][3] - Regions with population outflow need to consider land reduction and ecological restoration, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Reforms in household registration and land use are essential to facilitate population mobility and improve public service distribution [5] - The integration of urban and rural areas through policy changes can enhance living conditions and attract residents [5][6] Group 4: Urban Development Models - The concept of urban areas is evolving from administrative boundaries to integrated urban agglomerations, promoting collaboration between large cities and surrounding smaller towns [6][9] - Future urban planning should focus on balancing the agglomeration effects of large cities with their carrying capacity, leveraging technological advancements [6][7] Group 5: Quality of Life and Services - Enhancing urban livability through improved public services, environmental quality, and diverse lifestyle offerings is crucial for retaining population [13][14] - The development of service industries in large cities can drive economic growth and improve overall living standards [12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and oscillating trend. The market's expectation of "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" has failed. The static fundamental contradictions are not obvious at present, and the market still needs to pay attention to further policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July. At the same time, it is necessary to track the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - The short - term trend of iron ore prices is strong with oscillations, and attention should be paid to risk control after increased fluctuations. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in market sentiment and the macro - realization nodes [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in speculation and pay attention to price fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [14][15]. - The short - term price of glass is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term. The short - term price of soda ash rebounds due to market sentiment, but the fundamental supply - demand contradiction still exists in the medium term, and the trend is expected to be weak [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 96,689 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract position was 2.137057 million lots, a decrease of 16,795 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 62,501 tons, a decrease of 2086 tons. The main contract position was 1.549973 million lots, a decrease of 16,803 lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products oscillated weakly. The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. The inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a low level in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 773.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.78% (+6.00), and the position increased by 21,689 lots to 690,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.1402 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 758 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.95% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable in the latest period. Australia's shipment continued to decline due to port maintenance, Brazil's shipment increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 2.3981 million tons. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory continued to increase [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated slightly lower, closing down 0.59% at 5750 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 140 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) oscillated lower in the morning and accelerated its decline in the afternoon, closing down 1.57% at 5408 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations. The fundamental situation points downward, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, weakening future demand, and downward adjustment space for the cost of manganese ore and electricity [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) oscillated lower, closing down 1.14% at 8685 yuan/ton. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 265 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The industrial silicon still faces problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe on Wednesday was 1164 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period. The short - term price is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1195 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.884 million tons, an increase of 20,600 tons (1.11%) from the previous week. The demand is still weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term, with large inventory pressure. The short - term price rebounds due to market sentiment, but the trend is expected to be weak in the medium term [18].

当前房地产市场仍处于调整期，销售和新开工持续低迷，政策虽密集出台，但效果有限，市场 信心尚未修复。受此影响，建筑钢材需求承压，房地产对钢需的拉动作用明显减弱。与此同时， 钢材消费结构正在发生变化，基建、制造业、城市更新等领域成为支撑钢材需求的新增长点。 预计未来钢材总需求将呈现缓慢回落态势，但结构性亮点仍存，行业重心逐步从"量的增长" 转向"质的优化"。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 赵 航（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 黑色金属研究 | 钢材 近日，市场传闻 7 月中旬或将召开规格较高的中央城市工作会议，部分消息指出会 议可能涉及"棚改"内容的重启，尽管实质仍聚焦于"城市更新"。受此影响，房 地产相关股票及成材期货价格均出现较为明显的反应。然而，与 2015 年召开的城 市工作会议相比，此次 2025 年的会议在政策表述上已体现出显著差异。 2015 年，棚改货币化安置政策开始全面推行，核心在于通过货币补偿方式引导被 征 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 中央城市工作会议快评 城市发展迈入新阶段 经济研究·宏观解读 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 解读： 城市工作会议由来已久，本次是第五次。第一次是 1962 年在北戴河举行的第一次全国城市工作会议，主 要讨论城市基本定位与问题，背景是大规模工业化带来的城市人口迅速扩张带来生活等用品供给不足，会 议的主要指示是集中力量组织生产。 表1：历次城市工作会议梳理 | 年份 | 会议 | 简介 | 背景 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 《关于当前城市工作若干问题的指示》：已经 ...