Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Railway Group Limited (00390) [1][7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's valuation is expected to recover due to the optimization of financial statements and the performance of its resource segment [6][18] - It emphasizes the improvement in new contract signings and the robust backlog of orders, ensuring stable long-term growth [6][16] - The resource segment is noted for enhancing profitability and cyclicality resistance, with significant reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum [6][25] - The report points out the attractive dividend yield of H-shares compared to A-shares, indicating a clear discount in valuation [6][33] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 1,263.41 billion RMB - 2024: 1,160.31 billion RMB - 2025E: 1,156.73 billion RMB - 2026E: 1,164.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 1,179.18 billion RMB - The expected growth rates are: - 2023: +9.45% - 2024: -8.16% - 2025E: -0.31% - 2026E: +0.65% - 2027E: +1.29% [5][36] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 33.48 billion RMB - 2024: 27.89 billion RMB - 2025E: 25.16 billion RMB - 2026E: 24.95 billion RMB - 2027E: 25.85 billion RMB [5][36] Order and Contract Insights - The company has signed new contracts amounting to 2.73 trillion RMB in 2021, 3.03 trillion RMB in 2022, 3.10 trillion RMB in 2023, 2.72 trillion RMB in 2024, and 1.58 trillion RMB in 2025 (Q1-Q3), with a year-on-year growth of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% respectively [6][16] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts worth 7.54 trillion RMB, ensuring stable revenue for the upcoming years [6][16] Resource Segment Performance - The resource utilization segment's revenue from 2021 to 2025 (Q1-Q3) is as follows: - 2021: 5.96 billion RMB - 2022: 7.50 billion RMB - 2023: 8.37 billion RMB - 2024: 8.16 billion RMB - 2025 (Q1-Q3): 6.22 billion RMB - The segment's gross margin is reported at 59.45% for 2025 (Q1-Q3) [6][25] Valuation and Market Comparison - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 999 billion RMB for 2026, translating to 1,102 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current market cap of 945 billion HKD [6][41] - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 4.2X for 2025 and 4.0X for 2026 [6][41]

钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 终端延续弱势 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 钢材周报 一、交易数据 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：1-11月份，全国房地产开发投资78591亿元， 同比下降15.9%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积656066 万平方米，同比下降9.6%。房屋新开工面积53457万平 方米，下降20.5%。房屋竣工面积39454万平方米，下降 18.0%。新建商品房销售面积78702万平方米，同比下降 7.8%。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量182万吨，环比增加3万吨，表需 209万吨，增加6万吨，厂库140万吨，减少1万吨， ...

每经记者｜周逸斐 段思瑶 每经编辑｜金冥羽 陈星 "现在订单供不应求，客人直接到工厂催单，这在以往难得一见。"谈及今年的销量，中国重汽的一位销售负责人陈珂（化名）喜形于色。 数据也证实了这一点。中汽协最新数据显示，11月我国重型货车销量11.3万辆，同比增长65.4%，实现八连涨。 在本次销售热潮中，新能源重卡成为新引擎。 公开数据显示，11月份，国内新能源重卡市场共计销售2.8万辆，同比增长178%，前三季度销量同比增长184%。 "订单太多，但产能供不上，我们只能优先保障核心客户的需求。"陈珂清楚地记得，这场重卡市场的变局始于去年。 他告诉每经记者："从2024年10月到现在，我们就没闲过。原先的一班制生产满足不了需求，部分地区生产车间已经改成两班制。" 中国重汽旗下的一家齿轮公司上演着同样的景象。在大月生产压力下，该公司提高产能，变速箱总成装机量同比增长66%，总成单班产量超610台。 为何重卡销量上涨如此明显？本轮行情的"主角"为什么是新能源重卡？围绕这些问题，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）进行了深入调查。 1 订单太多、产能不足，客户直接去厂里催单 车间的热火朝天也直接反映在企业销量上。第 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 建筑 11 月狭义基建投资环比改善，2026 年 财政/投资定调积极 本周投资建议： 1-11 月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）44.40 万亿元，同比下降 2.6%，扣除房地产开发投资后的项目投资增长 0.8%；其中，11 月固 定资产投资（不含农户）下降 1.03%。1-11 月，狭义基建、广义基建 投资完成额累计同比分别为 1.10%和 0.13%，环比 1-10 月分别 +1.20pct、-1.38pct，11 月狭义基建投资环比改善。在基建三大分项 中，电热气水投资仍旧维持两位数增长，1-11 月，电热气水投资同比 增长 10.70%，交通运输、仓储和邮政业投资同比微降 0.10%，水利、 环境和公共设施管理业投资同比减少 6.30%。在基建各主要细分行业 中，1-11 月铁路运输业投资仍维持同比增长，为 2.70%。 根据国家发改委，党的二十届四中全会通过的《建议》将扩大有效投 资列为"建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局"的重点任务之一。 《建议》提出，"十五五"期间，坚持"实施一批、前期一批、储备一批、 谋划一批"，为扩大有效投资提供坚实的项目支撑；加强"十五 ...

Core Insights - Public REITs have emerged as a new growth point for the public fund industry, with a total market value exceeding 200 billion yuan in just four years since their launch in 2021, serving as a vital link between capital markets and infrastructure construction [1][2] Group 1: Public REITs Overview - Public REITs, or publicly offered infrastructure securities investment funds, allow ordinary investors to participate in infrastructure investments by breaking down large projects like highways and wind farms into smaller shares, thus enabling low-threshold investment opportunities [2] - The value of public REITs lies in their ability to "activate" dormant infrastructure assets and connect capital with new projects, creating a virtuous cycle of investment, operation, exit, and reinvestment [2] Group 2: Operational Structure - Public REITs utilize a dual-layer structure of "public fund + asset-backed securities," focusing on underlying infrastructure assets, with returns derived from stable cash flows and potential appreciation in the secondary market [3] - The management of public REITs involves a clear division of responsibilities, with fund managers overseeing the overall strategy while external operators manage daily operations, ensuring asset quality and stable returns for investors [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - High-quality underlying assets are fundamental to the success of public REITs, with ICBC Credit Suisse's REITs focusing on core values in transportation infrastructure and green energy [4] - The G18 Rongwu Expressway, part of the national highway network, serves as a key asset for the Hebei Expressway REIT, projected to achieve a cash distribution rate of 9.48% in 2024, indicating strong revenue potential [4] - The ICBC Mongolian Clean Energy REIT targets green investments through an inland wind power project, contributing to ecological protection while providing returns to investors [4] - The company is also diversifying its REIT product matrix by actively reserving various asset types such as parking lots, affordable rental housing, and industrial parks to meet different investor needs [4]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 10月15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年前11个月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元， 同比下降2.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降5.3%。 浙商证券首席分析师李超对《华夏时报》记者表示，投资当月同比已连续6个月转负，低于市场预期。 当前，固定资产投资连续下行的状态为多年来罕见。对此，刚刚落幕的中央经济工作会议明确，要"推 动投资止跌回稳"；全国发展和改革工作会议也要求，多措并举促进投资止跌回稳，这项工作仅次于首 位的"十五五"规划编制。 "往后看，中央经济工作会议点名推动投资止跌回升，因此对2026年投资端增速不宜过分低估。我们预 测，2026年一季度固投同比增速或达2.8%，预计广义基建和制造业投资同比增速均有望超过5.0%，带 动投资端实现开门红。"李超表示。 市场人士表示，接下来要关注财政方面增量政策的可能性，以及政策性金融工具对实物工作量的拉动。 下降趋势年内或仍持续 11月当月，狭义基建投资同比降幅继续扩大0.8个百分点至-9.7%，广义基建投资同比降幅收敛0.2个百分 点至-11.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) [8][33] Core Insights - The report highlights that the construction industry is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by local government debt management and the implementation of key national projects [7][14] - CRCC's new contract signing has shown marginal improvement, with a robust backlog of orders ensuring steady long-term growth [7][17] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure [7][21] - The H-shares of CRCC are trading at a significant discount compared to A-shares, making them more attractive from a dividend yield perspective [7][25] - The report projects CRCC's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 21.4 billion, RMB 21.7 billion, and RMB 22.2 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 3.1X, 3.2X, and 3.1X [7][29] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for CRCC are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,137.99 billion - 2024: RMB 1,067.17 billion - 2025E: RMB 1,092.29 billion - 2026E: RMB 1,114.13 billion - 2027E: RMB 1,133.25 billion - The expected growth rates are 3.80%, -6.22%, 2.35%, 2.00%, and 1.72% respectively [3][30] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: RMB 26.10 billion - 2024: RMB 22.22 billion - 2025E: RMB 21.41 billion - 2026E: RMB 21.69 billion - 2027E: RMB 22.23 billion - The corresponding growth rates are -2.19%, -14.87%, -3.62%, 1.30%, and 2.51% [3][30] Market Data - As of December 15, 2025, CRCC's closing price is HKD 5.51, with a market capitalization of HKD 748.23 billion [4][8] - The H-shares are trading at a P/E ratio of 3.6X and a P/B ratio of 0.25X, indicating a significant discount compared to A-shares [7][25] Order and Contract Insights - CRCC's cumulative new contract amounts from 2021 to 2025Q3 are as follows: - 2021: RMB 2.82 trillion - 2022: RMB 3.25 trillion - 2023: RMB 3.29 trillion - 2024: RMB 3.04 trillion - 2025Q1-3: RMB 1.52 trillion - The new contract signing has shown a year-on-year growth of 10.39%, 15.09%, 1.51%, -7.80%, and 3.08% respectively [7][17]

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the first ten months [2] - The central economic work conference proposed measures to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," including increasing central budget investment and optimizing local government special bond management [4] Group 2: Real Estate Investment - National real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [4] - New commercial housing sales area was 78,702 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year; sales amount was 75,130 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [5] - The decline in real estate investment is attributed to weakened support measures and cash flow issues in the market, leading to a lack of confidence among developers [5][6] Group 3: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% year-on-year from January to November, but the growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [6] - The decline in manufacturing investment growth is influenced by external economic conditions, constraints on overcapacity industries, and reduced impact from last year's large-scale equipment updates [6] - The current downturn is seen as a necessary adjustment after years of rapid growth in manufacturing investment, with expectations of negative growth in December [6]

财政部将于12月12日开展2025年到期续作特别国债发行。 12月10日，财政部发布《关于2025年到期续作特别国债(一期和二期)发行工作有关事宜的通知》，拟于12日在全国银行间债券市场面向 有关银行定向发行2025年到期续作特别国债7500亿元，发行过程不涉及社会投资者，个人投资者不能购买。 财政部有关负责人明确表示，2025年到期续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债相对应，不增加财政赤字。 今年以来，中央财政不仅继续发行1.3万亿元超长期国债，更大力度支持"两重"项目建设以及加力扩围实施"两新"政策。今年中央财政还 专门发行5000亿元特别国债，为大型商业银行注入资本金。 近日召开的中央政治局会议明确明年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。展望"十五五"开局之年，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，基 建投资在"十五五"开局之年随着大型项目开工有望提速，但高度依赖中央财政支持力度。中央财政或通过超长期特别国债承担更多支出 责任以确保实物工作量。 校对：杨舒欣 本次财政部拟发行的2025年到期续作特别国债(一期)、(二期)，期限品种分别为10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元，在操作方式上依然 ...

财政部将于12月12日开展2025年到期续作特别国债发行。 12月10日，财政部发布《关于2025年到期续作特别国债（一期和二期）发行工作有关事宜的通知》， 拟于12日在全国银行间债券市场面向有关银 行定向发行2025年到期续作特别国债7500亿元 ，发行过程不涉及社会投资者，个人投资者不能购买。 财政部有关负责人明确表示，2025年到期续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债相对应，不增加财政赤字。 近日召开的中央政治局会议明确明年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。展望"十五五"开局之年，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，基建投资 在"十五五"开局之年随着大型项目开工有望提速，但高度依赖中央财政支持力度。中央财政或通过超长期特别国债承担更多支出责任以确保实物 工作量。 本次财政部拟发行的2025年到期续作特别国债（一期）、（二期），期限品种分别为10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元，在操作方式上依然参照 此前多次特别国债续作方式。 2007年，经国务院同意和全国人大常委会批准，财政部发行了1.55万亿元特别国债，作为中国投资有限责任公司的资本金来源。期限主要为10 年、15年，2017年起陆 ...