Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is facing a complex situation, with recent fluctuations in its exchange rate against the US dollar and mixed signals from government officials regarding intervention strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Dynamics - Following a significant rebound on January 23, the yen has started to reverse its gains, dropping nearly 0.6% on February 2, reaching a low of 155.69 against the dollar, effectively giving back about half of its previous week's gains [1]. - The yen's exchange rate had previously strengthened, breaking through seven levels since January 23, peaking at 152.19, the first time it reached this range since early November 2025 [1]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet ruled out any US intervention to support the yen, reaffirming a strong dollar policy, which has put additional pressure on the yen [1][2]. Group 2: Government and Economic Perspectives - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi indicated that a weak yen could provide significant opportunities for export-oriented industries, suggesting that the government is not overly concerned about the current exchange rate levels [2]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported no direct intervention in the yen's exchange rate as of January 28, indicating a wait-and-see approach [2]. - The upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 could influence future monetary policy, with expectations that if Takashi is re-elected, she may continue to promote a weak yen policy alongside loose monetary measures [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while government intervention can stabilize market sentiment in the short term, the yen's fundamental weaknesses remain, particularly due to geopolitical risks affecting Japan's asset stability [5]. - The potential for joint intervention in the currency market is considered low, but single interventions by Japanese authorities have occurred in the past [3].

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中金研究，作者：李刘阳等 图表1：汇率预测表 (上段为中枢、下段为区间) 一个月中枢：6.92 ► 1月：人民币对美元继续保持持续的升值，对一篮子货币则明显走跌，CFETS指数较12月底贬逾1%，中间价整体保持较快的升值速率。从外部环境来 看，美元指数先升后跌，并在月末再度回升，全月下跌较多，带动非美货币的普遍升值。内部因素来看，人民币汇率升值预期的稳固及季节性的延续带动 汇率稳步升值，中间价亦保持了较快且稳定的升值速率，不过大行以一定力度买入美元，对汇率的升值节奏起到了一定的限制作用。 2月重要事件展望 新提名的美联储主席沃什的政策态度1月末，随着前美联储委员凯文沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，美元在月末强劲反弹并暂时遏止住了1月中达沃斯以 来的连续下跌势头。沃什被认为是美联储主席候选人中相对最鹰派的一个，他过去主张美联储缩减资产负债表，并反对过量化宽松。白宫选择他至少在短 期内减少了市场对于美联储独立性的疑虑，并为美元的信用提供了支持。在2月份，他将会去国会听证以求提名获得认可。我们可能会看到他继续强调美 联储的独立性等原则。这可能会给美元带来进一步的利好。不过，我们并不认为沃什会比鲍威 ...

日本财务省周五公布的数据证实，在1月大部分时间里，当局并未直接干预汇市。尽管日元在此期间从接近160关口显著升值至154区间，但其反弹 主要源自市场对美日可能采取联合行动的担忧，而非实际干预操作。 交易员报告显示，纽约联邦储备银行的询价操作实际推动了日元走强。相比日本单独行动，美日联合干预的潜在威胁具有更强的市场影响力，能 更有效地引导汇率方向并对投机交易形成压制。 日本财务大臣片山皋月近期多次援引去年9月的日美货币协议，强调可能与美国协调行动。她在周二日元进一步升值后对记者表示： 数据显示，从去年12月29日至今年1月28日，日本并未动用任何资金进行外汇干预。这与2024年春季的情况形成鲜明对比，当时为达成类似幅度调 整，日本曾投入近10万亿日元（约650亿美元）进行干预。 这一策略为即将于2月8日面临大选考验的高市早苗政府赢得了宝贵的缓和空间，因为日元贬值推升的通胀一直是选民不满的主要焦点。然而分析 师警告，此种依赖美国政策配合的策略存在显著脆弱性，难以持续复制；一旦日元再度逼近160，日本或将不得不启动规模更大的实际干预。 值得注意的是，美国财政部长贝森特周三已明确表态，美国"绝对没有"在货币市场中抛售 ...

日本财务省周五公布的数据显示，在涵盖1月大部分时间的最新月度期间，日本政府没有进入外汇市 场。 注：日本央行账户变动未就该国上周五是否干预汇市提供明确证据。 财务省：12月29日至1月28日期间，没有资金用于干预外汇市场。 责任编辑：郭明煜 注：日本央行账户变动未就该国上周五是否干预汇市提供明确证据。 责任编辑：郭明煜 日本财务省周五公布的数据显示，在涵盖1月大部分时间的最新月度期间，日本政府没有进入外汇市 场。 财务省：12月29日至1月28日期间，没有资金用于干预外汇市场。 ...

美国财政部的一句话，正在削弱日元最后一道"心理防线"。 据追风交易台，野村在最新外汇策略报告中指出，美国财政部长贝森特公开否认美方正在进行外汇干预，等于间接拆掉了此前压在美元/日元上的"干预预期 锚"，令市场在做空日元时，少了一层顾忌。 从市场反应看，这一表态并非象征性。1月28日贝森特在CNBC直言"Absolutely not"之后，美元/日元迅速反弹，从152.7附近拉升至153.8一线，几乎抹去此前 因"纽约联储查价"传闻引发的跌幅。 真正被击穿的，并不是点位，而是"干预预期" 此前一周，美元/日元从160附近快速回落，很大程度并非基本面逆转，而是市场高度警惕两件事： 美方是否已通过纽约联储"查价"，为联合干预铺路 日本财务省（MOF）是否已悄然入场买入日元 另一条防线来自日本自身。 但野村强调，贝森特的表态实质上弱化了第一条假设。即便纽约联储确实进行过查价，那也只是流程性动作，并不等同于已经、或即将干预。 结果是：美元/日元的"政策风险溢价"被迅速压缩，做空日元重新变成一笔"性价比更高"的交易。 日本是否已经干预？数据给出的答案是：证据不足 野村通过日本央行每日资金账户数据估算发现，在美元/日元大幅 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen experienced a significant drop last week, followed by an unexpected surge this week, with the exchange rate nearing 160 yen per dollar on the 23rd and rising to the 152 yen per dollar range by the 28th [1] - The decline in the yen's value was attributed to concerns over Japan's fiscal situation following Prime Minister Kishi's announcement of early elections, leading to a sell-off in Japanese government bonds and a spike in bond yields [1] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting did not provide any supportive signals for the market, resulting in a further decline in the yen's value [1] Group 2 - The volatility in the Japanese financial market has drawn the attention of U.S. authorities, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressing concerns over the impact of Japanese bond sales on U.S. bonds [2] - Analysts suggest that U.S. and Japanese financial authorities may have collaborated to intervene in the currency market, leading to the yen's recent appreciation [2] - Reports indicate that the Federal Reserve conducted a currency inquiry, which is seen as a strong signal of market intervention, contributing to the yen's rise [2] Group 3 - Some market analysts believe that the crisis in the Japanese financial market is not over, with ongoing concerns about the potential "Kishi shock" due to aggressive fiscal policies [3] - The Japanese government's debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 240%, raising fears that tax cuts and increased spending will exacerbate the debt burden and further devalue the yen [3] - There are comparisons being made to the "Truss shock" in the UK, with warnings that the impact of Kishi's fiscal policies could be even more severe for Japan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has weakened the last psychological defense of the yen, leading to a reduction in intervention expectations and making shorting the yen a more attractive trade [1][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Yellen's statement on January 28, the USD/JPY pair rebounded sharply from around 152.7 to 153.8, erasing losses caused by rumors of a "New York Fed price check" [1]. - The market's focus has shifted from intervention speculation to the fundamental strength of Japan's economy [5][10]. Group 2: Intervention Expectations - Yellen's denial of intervention has diminished the perceived "policy risk premium" associated with USD/JPY, making shorting the yen more appealing [3]. - There is insufficient evidence to suggest that Japan has intervened in the currency market, as data from the Bank of Japan shows no significant yen-buying activity during recent declines [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Factors - The market is now assessing three key areas regarding Japan's fundamentals: fiscal policy, inflation expectations, and monetary policy [5]. - The upcoming elections and the lack of clarity on funding for tax cuts could create downward pressure on the yen if fiscal expansion continues without a clear financing plan [5]. - Rising domestic inflation expectations have been found to correlate with a weaker yen, indicating that even without widening interest rate differentials, the yen remains under pressure [6]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Implications - Short-term, Yellen's comments may reduce expectations for immediate rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, but if USD/JPY approaches the 150 level again, the Bank may find it challenging to maintain its current stance [8]. - The weakening of the yen is becoming a significant variable in the Bank of Japan's response function, potentially leading to increased rate hike expectations if the yen depreciates too quickly [8][9].

智通财经APP注意到，美国财政部长贝森特在周三宣扬强势美元政策。就在前一天，美国总统特朗普的言论曾导致美元暴跌，贝森特的表态为美金提供了支 撑。 贝森特在接受采访时表示，"美国始终奉行强势美元政策，""但强势美元政策意味着要建立正确的基本面，"他说，"如果我们拥有稳健的政策，资金自然会 流入。" 贝森特还表示，美国"绝对没有"在货币市场进行干预以抛售美元并买入日元。当被问及美国是否可能采取此类措施时，他表示："除了重申我们拥有强势美 元政策外，我们不作评论。" 他的言论引发了美元在周三的广泛反弹，但到了周四亚洲早盘，部分涨幅已经回落，彭博美元现货指数下跌 0.2%。此前在周二，该指数因特朗普表示他对 货币贬值感到满意而出现暴跌。 "贝森特似乎在试图平息市场焦虑的情绪，"德国中央合作银行外汇与货币政策主管索尼娅·马滕表示。"虽然美国总体上可能欢迎美元走软，但货币的快速贬 值显然也不符合其利益。" 宏观策略师塔蒂亚娜·达里认为："在特朗普总统昨晚的言论引发历史性的美元下跌后，财政部长贝森特克制的措辞似乎是在安抚市场，但这不太可能显著改 变美元的看跌轨迹。" 有关美国可能加入日本政府行列抛售美元、买入日元的猜测在上 ...

Group 1: Silver and Gold Price Predictions - Citigroup raised its three-month silver price forecast to $150 per ounce from $100, citing a recent surge of over 30% in silver prices, which currently trade above $110, with potential for a further 30-40% increase in the coming weeks [1] - Goldman Sachs noted that the volatility in silver prices is expected to persist, while maintaining a significant upward risk for its year-end gold price target of $5,400 [1] - Deutsche Bank projected that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce under a weakening dollar scenario, with potential to challenge $6,900 based on past performance [2] - The Royal Bank of Canada indicated that gold's upward momentum is far from peaking, with a year-end target of $7,100 per ounce due to geopolitical instability and central bank demand [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - HSBC highlighted that the sudden spike in U.S. interest rate volatility poses a significant risk to the bond market, although it is not expected to occur in the short term [4] - HSBC also pointed out that the attractiveness of Japanese government bonds is diminishing compared to other developed market sovereign debts, predicting a rise in long-term Japanese bond yields ahead of the upcoming elections [5] - Deutsche Bank forecasted that copper prices could peak at $13,000 per ton in Q2 due to tightening supply-demand dynamics, but may face a correction later in the year [8] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Various Sectors - Galaxy Securities emphasized investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, military trade, and intelligent equipment, driven by high demand growth in the next five years [12] - Huatai Securities expressed optimism for household energy storage, driven by rising electricity prices and the need for efficient energy solutions [13] - CITIC Securities projected a continued weak supply-demand balance in the coal industry into 2026, but with potential for improved profitability under supportive policies [14] - CITIC Securities also noted that the price of copper-clad laminates is expected to rise, with significant room for margin improvement [15] - CITIC Securities highlighted the potential for stable sales in the liquor industry during the upcoming Spring Festival, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investments [16] - CITIC Securities identified the commercial aerospace industry's growth as a driver for increased demand in satellite communication markets, projecting significant market growth by 2035 [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Macro Environment** with a focus on currency fluctuations, particularly the **US Dollar (USD)**, and its implications for various markets and economies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Weakness**: The USD has weakened sharply, with the DXY index dropping to **96.2**, a decline of **0.9%**. This is attributed to President Trump's comments indicating he is unconcerned about the dollar's decline, suggesting it should "just seek its own level" [5][2][1]. 2. **Market Reactions**: The weakening dollar has led to a sell-off in long-end rates as market participants speculate on potential FX interventions. The US 10-year yield rose to **4.24%**, an increase of **2.6 basis points** [5][2][1]. 3. **Safe-Haven Assets**: Investors are migrating towards safe-haven currencies and gold, which has increased by **3%** to nearly **$5,200/oz**. The Swiss Franc (CHF) gained **2%** against the USD, while the Euro (EUR) surpassed **1.20**, a high not seen since 2021 [5][2][1]. 4. **Oil Prices**: Brent oil prices climbed by **3%** to nearly **$68/bbl** due to weather-related supply disruptions, with US oil production reportedly losing up to **2 million barrels per day**, approximately **15%** of national output [5][2][1]. 5. **Inflation Expectations**: Rising oil prices and a weakening USD have boosted inflation expectations, leading to a steepening of the US rates curve. Long-end rates underperformed, while front-end rates strengthened following a miss in consumer confidence data [5][2][1]. 6. **Emerging Markets Performance**: Emerging market currencies, particularly in Latin America, have outperformed amid the dollar's decline. The Brazilian Real (BRL) appreciated by **1.9%** against the USD [5][2][1]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Government Shutdown Speculation**: Prediction markets are pricing in a potential partial government shutdown, with Senate Republicans hesitant to pass the Homeland Security funding bill separately from other unpassed funding bills [5][2][1]. 2. **Japanese Yen (JPY) Movements**: The JPY gained **1.3%** to approximately **152.6 per USD** as Japan's Finance Minister reiterated intentions to coordinate FX actions with the US [8][2][1]. 3. **UK Fiscal Concerns**: Long-end gilts sold off due to fiscal concerns following the UK government's announcement of tax breaks for businesses, indicating potential instability in the UK bond market [8][2][1]. 4. **Central Bank Actions**: The Bank of Chile (BCCh) maintained its policy rate at **4.50%**, signaling a flexible stance that may allow for future cuts, while the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept its rate at **6.50%** but hinted at possible cuts if conditions stabilize [10][14][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic environment's impact on currencies, commodities, and market expectations.