外汇干预

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日本财务大臣加藤胜信:日本持有大量美国国债作为外汇储备的一部分,这是事实,尽管这是为了有足够的资金在需要时进行外汇干预。
news flash· 2025-05-01 21:38
Core Viewpoint - Japan holds a significant amount of US Treasury bonds as part of its foreign exchange reserves, which is intended to ensure sufficient funds for foreign exchange interventions when necessary [1] Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, confirmed the country's substantial holdings of US Treasury bonds [1] - The purpose of holding these bonds is to maintain adequate funds for potential foreign exchange interventions [1]
【UNFX课堂】央行政策对外汇价格的影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 06:35
Group 1 - Central bank policies are a primary driver of foreign exchange markets, influencing currency supply and demand, market expectations, and economic fundamentals, which in turn affect exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Interest rate adjustments directly impact borrowing costs, influencing capital flows and currency values; for instance, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a nearly 20% surge in the US dollar index, reaching a 20-year high [4][24] - Quantitative easing (QE) increases money supply and can lead to currency depreciation, as seen when the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE during the pandemic caused a 12% drop in the dollar index [7][6] Group 2 - Central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling currencies to influence exchange rates; for example, Japan's Ministry of Finance warned about potential intervention to stabilize the yen [11][9] - Forward guidance from central banks can shape market expectations regarding future policy directions, with hawkish signals typically strengthening the currency and dovish signals weakening it [12][13] Group 3 - The transmission of central bank policies to the foreign exchange market occurs through various channels, including interest rate parity, capital flows, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment [16][22] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on employment and inflation, making the US dollar a global safe-haven currency, while the European Central Bank's policies are primarily aimed at inflation control, impacting the euro's value [24][25] Group 4 - Recent policy shifts, such as the Federal Reserve's transition to aggressive rate hikes from late 2021, have led to significant market reactions, including a rise in the dollar index and a peak exchange rate against the yen [24][1] - The Bank of Japan's unexpected adjustment of its yield curve control policy in December 2022 resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the dollar, breaking a long-term depreciation trend [26][2] Group 5 - Future challenges for central banks include the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical factors that may influence monetary policy and currency dynamics, such as the trend of "de-dollarization" among various nations [32][34] - The interconnectedness of markets necessitates that traders consider policy analysis alongside technical factors and liquidity management to navigate extreme market conditions effectively [38][37]
前美联储副主席:市场高估了广场协议的作用
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-30 05:46
4月29日,前美联储副主席、债券巨头Pimco全球经济顾问理查德·克拉里达(Richard Clarida)在英国 《金融时报》发表题为《广场协议和卢浮宫协议的真正教训(The real lessons from the Plaza and Louvre accords)》的专栏文章,对1985年广场协议和1987年卢浮宫协议进行了深入剖析,并"纠正"了长期以来 人们对这两项协议成功因素的普遍认知。 Clarida表示,大家普遍认为1985年的广场协议和1987年的卢浮宫协议之所以成功,主要是靠各国联合出 手干预外汇市场,这才让当时过分强势的美元贬值,也缩小了美国的巨额贸易逆差。 但他认为,这其实是个"神话",或者说,是个流传甚广的误解。 Clarida强调,真正起决定性作用的,其实是当时美国国内的货币政策和财政政策调整。 从事后看,这两个协议确实达到了目标:到1987年,美元确实有序贬值了;到1989年,美国贸易逆差占 GDP的比重也减少了三分之二。 文章指出,而正是因为这个结果,很多人,甚至一些专业人士都觉得,是各国央行联手在外汇市场上买 卖美元(也就是所谓的"干预"),才促成了美元贬值和贸易平衡。 Cl ...
金十整理:瑞郎一路狂飙 瑞士两难之下是选择拥抱“负利率”还是冒险干预汇市?
news flash· 2025-04-28 09:25
金十整理:瑞郎一路狂飙 瑞士两难之下是选择拥抱"负利率"还是冒险干预汇市? 经济面临重重难关 1. 瑞郎升值:避险资金无视基本面涌入瑞郎,仅在4月,瑞郎兑美元汇率一度上涨了9%。 2. 通胀低迷:最新数据显示,瑞士通胀年率仅为约0.3%,已经处于央行0%至2%目标范围的低端。 3. 国际贸易依赖:瑞士人口只有900万,是一个严重依赖进出口的市场经济国家,出口部门占GDP的近 70%。瑞郎升值将不利于出口,并加剧通缩压力。 4. 面临高额关税:美国对瑞士实施的对等关税税率为31%,高于欧盟对瑞士的税率。综合外媒报导,瑞 士对美出口额占总出口的10%以上。 5. 前景阴云密布:据瑞士国家银行的最新预测,2025年瑞士的GDP增长率预计在1%至1.5%之间,显著 低于其历史平均水平1.8%。 负利率还是外汇干预?陷入两难... 1. 政策空间有限 抑制瑞郎升值"黔驴技穷" 瑞士政策利率已经达到0.25%,若经济状况进一步恶化,剩下的常规弹药就所剩无几了,进一步降息将 走向负利率。 2. 高盛集团:预测瑞士央行将在9月之前连续两次降息25个基点,使政策利率降至-0.25%。 3. 机构调查:大多数机构预计瑞士将把利率 ...
国际货币基金组织:对亚洲政策制定者来说,外汇灵活性将是抵御冲击的关键缓冲,但在波动性加剧的情况下,外汇干预可能会发挥作用。
news flash· 2025-04-24 13:18
国际货币基金组织:对亚洲政策制定者来说,外汇灵活性将是抵御冲击的关键缓冲,但在波动性加剧的 情况下,外汇干预可能会发挥作用。 ...