Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governor stated that foreign exchange interventions are primarily focused on the most liquid markets, specifically the US dollar and euro markets [1] Group 1 - The SNB emphasizes the importance of liquidity in foreign exchange interventions [1] - The US dollar and euro are identified as the main currencies for intervention activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The monetary policy authority in Taiwan has received recommendations from the United States to conduct foreign exchange interventions in a limited manner, allowing the exchange rate movements to reflect the economic fundamentals [1] Group 1 - The U.S. suggests that Taiwan's foreign exchange interventions should be restrained [1] - The emphasis is on allowing the exchange rate to mirror the underlying economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant appreciation of the Swiss Franc is creating deflationary pressures in Switzerland, complicating the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) ability to intervene due to the current U.S. administration's stance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by global market volatility and a flight to safety [3][4]. - The strong Swiss Franc has led to a decrease in import prices, contributing to a 2.4% year-on-year decline in import prices and a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, marking Switzerland's first return to deflation since the pandemic [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Response - The SNB may be forced to consider reintroducing negative interest rates as a response to the strong Swiss Franc, which could further lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to -0.25% by the end of the year [5][6]. - The SNB ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy in 2022, but the current economic conditions may necessitate a reconsideration of this stance [5][6]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Intervention Challenges - The SNB's ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market is complicated by the U.S. government's potential response, as any direct intervention could lead to accusations of currency manipulation, reminiscent of the 2020 designation by the U.S. Treasury [6][7]. - The current geopolitical climate and the U.S. administration's trade policies make it difficult for the SNB to utilize foreign exchange interventions without facing significant repercussions [6][7].

Group 1 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that the amount of foreign exchange intervention from April 28 to May 28 was zero [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, emphasizes the importance of holding sufficient foreign exchange reserves to respond to rapid fluctuations in exchange rates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Foreign Exchange Reserves - Japan's current level of foreign exchange reserves is not excessive [1] - Following foreign exchange interventions, there has been a significant reduction in foreign exchange reserves [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) continues to buy US dollars to defend the currency peg, injecting HKD 60.543 billion due to the prolonged strong side of the peg at 7.75 against the USD [2] - Since last Friday, the HKMA has absorbed USD 7.812 billion in sell orders, raising the banking system's balance to HKD 161.384 billion [2] - The HKMA's total injections since last week amount to HKD 116.614 billion, with the recent interventions attributed to the weakening USD and concerns over trade agreements [2] Group 2 - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) experienced its largest increase since 1988, rising by 5% on Monday, prompting local authorities to address speculation about the currency's surge [3] - Taiwan's trade negotiation office clarified that the US did not request the TWD to appreciate, and recent negotiations did not involve foreign exchange policy [4] - Concerns among local exporters regarding the TWD's strength are rising, particularly affecting companies like TSMC, which saw a 1.3% drop in stock price [4] Group 3 - Taiwanese insurance companies hold approximately TWD 575 billion in US government bonds, with many lacking adequate hedging against a weakening USD, leading to potential losses [5] - The recent surge in TWD has led to a significant increase in trading volume, reaching the highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis [4] - Taiwan has been placed on the US Treasury's currency monitoring list, and the TWD's appreciation may be viewed as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japan holds a significant amount of US Treasury bonds as part of its foreign exchange reserves, which is intended to ensure sufficient funds for foreign exchange interventions when necessary [1] Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, confirmed the country's substantial holdings of US Treasury bonds [1] - The purpose of holding these bonds is to maintain adequate funds for potential foreign exchange interventions [1]

Group 1 - Central bank policies are a primary driver of foreign exchange markets, influencing currency supply and demand, market expectations, and economic fundamentals, which in turn affect exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Interest rate adjustments directly impact borrowing costs, influencing capital flows and currency values; for instance, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a nearly 20% surge in the US dollar index, reaching a 20-year high [4][24] - Quantitative easing (QE) increases money supply and can lead to currency depreciation, as seen when the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE during the pandemic caused a 12% drop in the dollar index [7][6] Group 2 - Central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling currencies to influence exchange rates; for example, Japan's Ministry of Finance warned about potential intervention to stabilize the yen [11][9] - Forward guidance from central banks can shape market expectations regarding future policy directions, with hawkish signals typically strengthening the currency and dovish signals weakening it [12][13] Group 3 - The transmission of central bank policies to the foreign exchange market occurs through various channels, including interest rate parity, capital flows, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment [16][22] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on employment and inflation, making the US dollar a global safe-haven currency, while the European Central Bank's policies are primarily aimed at inflation control, impacting the euro's value [24][25] Group 4 - Recent policy shifts, such as the Federal Reserve's transition to aggressive rate hikes from late 2021, have led to significant market reactions, including a rise in the dollar index and a peak exchange rate against the yen [24][1] - The Bank of Japan's unexpected adjustment of its yield curve control policy in December 2022 resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the dollar, breaking a long-term depreciation trend [26][2] Group 5 - Future challenges for central banks include the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical factors that may influence monetary policy and currency dynamics, such as the trend of "de-dollarization" among various nations [32][34] - The interconnectedness of markets necessitates that traders consider policy analysis alongside technical factors and liquidity management to navigate extreme market conditions effectively [38][37]

4月29日，前美联储副主席、债券巨头Pimco全球经济顾问理查德·克拉里达（Richard Clarida）在英国 《金融时报》发表题为《广场协议和卢浮宫协议的真正教训（The real lessons from the Plaza and Louvre accords）》的专栏文章，对1985年广场协议和1987年卢浮宫协议进行了深入剖析，并"纠正"了长期以来 人们对这两项协议成功因素的普遍认知。 Clarida表示，大家普遍认为1985年的广场协议和1987年的卢浮宫协议之所以成功，主要是靠各国联合出 手干预外汇市场，这才让当时过分强势的美元贬值，也缩小了美国的巨额贸易逆差。 但他认为，这其实是个"神话"，或者说，是个流传甚广的误解。 Clarida强调，真正起决定性作用的，其实是当时美国国内的货币政策和财政政策调整。 从事后看，这两个协议确实达到了目标：到1987年，美元确实有序贬值了；到1989年，美国贸易逆差占 GDP的比重也减少了三分之二。 文章指出，而正是因为这个结果，很多人，甚至一些专业人士都觉得，是各国央行联手在外汇市场上买 卖美元（也就是所谓的"干预"），才促成了美元贬值和贸易平衡。 Cl ...

金十整理：瑞郎一路狂飙 瑞士两难之下是选择拥抱"负利率"还是冒险干预汇市？ 经济面临重重难关 1. 瑞郎升值：避险资金无视基本面涌入瑞郎，仅在4月，瑞郎兑美元汇率一度上涨了9%。 2. 通胀低迷：最新数据显示，瑞士通胀年率仅为约0.3%，已经处于央行0%至2%目标范围的低端。 3. 国际贸易依赖：瑞士人口只有900万，是一个严重依赖进出口的市场经济国家，出口部门占GDP的近 70%。瑞郎升值将不利于出口，并加剧通缩压力。 4. 面临高额关税：美国对瑞士实施的对等关税税率为31%，高于欧盟对瑞士的税率。综合外媒报导，瑞 士对美出口额占总出口的10%以上。 5. 前景阴云密布：据瑞士国家银行的最新预测，2025年瑞士的GDP增长率预计在1%至1.5%之间，显著 低于其历史平均水平1.8%。 负利率还是外汇干预？陷入两难... 1. 政策空间有限 抑制瑞郎升值"黔驴技穷" 瑞士政策利率已经达到0.25%，若经济状况进一步恶化，剩下的常规弹药就所剩无几了，进一步降息将 走向负利率。 2. 高盛集团：预测瑞士央行将在9月之前连续两次降息25个基点，使政策利率降至-0.25%。 3. 机构调查：大多数机构预计瑞士将把利率 ...