韩元兑美元近期下跌，正接近重要心理关口1500，这一关口仅在1997年全球金融危机和亚洲货币危机期 间才被跌破。据称，韩国国家养老金服务机构已出售美元以支撑韩元，而韩国券商已决定停止新的海外 股票营销。 来源：新华财经 周四，韩国财政部警告外汇波动性加剧，并表示将在必要时迅速采取措施，同时政府放松了外汇规定， 以提振在岸美元流动性。 据《韩国经济日报》援引韩国总统府知情人士言论报道，韩国总统府政策室长金容范（Kim Yong- beom）与七大公司举行紧急会议，讨论外汇相关问题。这些公司包括三星电子、SK、现代汽车、LG、 乐天、韩华和现代集团。预计总统府将与出口商讨论相关措施，鼓励企业将持有的美元兑换为韩元。 ...

韩元兑美元近期下跌，正接近重要心理关口1500，这一关口仅在1997年全球金融危机和亚洲货币危机期 间才被跌破。据称，韩国国家养老金服务机构已出售美元以支撑韩元，而韩国券商已决定停止新的海外 股票营销。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月18日电周四，韩国财政部警告外汇波动性加剧，并表示将在必要时迅速采取措施，同 时政府放松了外汇规定，以提振在岸美元流动性。 据《韩国经济日报》援引韩国总统府知情人士言论报道，韩国总统府政策室长金容范（Kim Yong- beom）与七大公司举行紧急会议，讨论外汇相关问题。这些公司包括三星电子、SK、现代汽车、LG、 乐天、韩华和现代集团。预计总统府将与出口商讨论相关措施，鼓励企业将持有的美元兑换为韩元。 ...

【导读】韩国要打一场韩元保卫战？ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下韩元危机的消息。 12月14日，在韩元持续贬值的情况下，韩国政府紧急召开外汇市场应对会议，连同保健福祉 部、产业通商资源部也一并参与。 近期，韩元兑美元汇率延续贬值态势，韩国政府因此在周末召集紧急会议研究对策。 有分析师称，若韩元继续走弱、逼近"每1美元兑1500韩元"这一具有强烈心理意义的关口，韩国可能会 加大干预力度。该水平自2009年以来未再出现。 虽然会议结果并未对外发布单独声明，但政府在休息日的下午临时召集紧急会议，被解读为 外汇市场波动已到了不容忽视的程度。 本月，韩元兑美元平均汇率已突破1470韩元， 创下金融危机以来的最高月度水平。12月 12 日，韩元汇率在夜盘交易中，盘中一度跌至1美元兑1479韩元。 出席会议的包括具允哲副总理、金融委员会委员长（主席）李亿元、韩国银行行长李昌镛、 金融监督院院长李灿镇、总统室经济增长首席秘书官河俊庆，以及保健福祉部第一副部长李 斯兰、产业通商资源部产业政策室长朴东一。 此次会议参与范围超出通常的外汇主管部门，连保健福祉部与产业部也出席，外界认为这是 为了更全面地盘点与外汇供需相关的因 ...

他说："我们看到了一些可以归因于干预措施所产生的变化。但这也可能受到其他因素的影响。" 据瑞银基于资产负债表数据所做的计算，瑞士央行在10月份并没有进行外汇市场干预，当时瑞士法郎走 势出现逆转。瑞银经济学家Florian Germanier估计，瑞士央行在当月的外汇交易规模在2000万法郎(约合 2500万美元)的买入额到5000万法郎(约合5.1亿美元)的卖出额之间。这些数字远低于该行第二季度51亿 法郎的支出额。 瑞士央行会在每个季度结束后的三个月后公布其市场交易数据。这意味着10月至12月这一时间段的官方 数据要到2026年3月底才会公布。 Germanier表示："没有迹象表明瑞士央行进行了干预。"这个范围并不能表明官员们曾有所行动——而 在他们采取行动的时期，资产负债表数据则表明其力度要大得多。" 10月份，欧元兑瑞郎的汇率一度接近0.92，这一水平在许多交易员看来具有重要意义。随后汇率出现逆 转，这引发了人们的猜测，认为政策制定者曾出售货币以抑制瑞郎汇率上涨。但他们最终显然没有采取 这一行动，这与瑞士央行过去大规模抛售瑞郎的举动相比，表明其如今更倾向于采取更为审慎的干预措 施。 Germanier ...

Group 1 - The weakening of the yen, combined with expectations of large-scale economic stimulus, supports the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - Domestic demand remains resilient due to strong wage growth and improved household confidence, with economic growth expected to return to positive territory in Q4 [1] - The likelihood of a rate hike during the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 18-19 has increased, and the yen is currently undervalued, potentially strengthening before the meeting [1] Group 2 - Japanese government bonds may see rising yields due to market expectations that the economic stimulus measures will exceed forecasts, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening policy, initiated in August 2024, aims to reduce its holdings of Japanese government bonds, leading to a significant decrease in domestic bank purchases [1] - The government is worried about the yen's depreciation, particularly if the USD/JPY approaches 160, which may prompt foreign exchange intervention [2]

Group 1 - The Japanese government is closely monitored by forex traders as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, with expectations of potential intervention in the yen due to low liquidity conditions [1][2] - Historical data indicates that Japanese authorities often intervene during low liquidity periods to maximize the impact of their actions with less capital [1][2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is hovering around a 10-month high of 157.90, but the recent verbal warnings from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki have temporarily halted the yen's depreciation [1][3] Group 2 - The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday will significantly reduce market liquidity, creating an ideal environment for potential forex intervention by Japanese authorities [2] - The Ministry of Finance is responsible for deciding when to intervene, while the Bank of Japan executes the operations, indicating a structured approach to managing the yen's value [3] - Analysts suggest that the yen has found temporary support at current levels, but its ability to maintain this support largely depends on whether the Japanese authorities take action during this "golden window" [4]

Rick Santelli with the Bond Report. Rick, it appears that uh John Williams may have saved Christmas. >> Well, I'm not sure about that.It certainly seems to me like there's a lot of other moving parts here, but it definitely moved the probabilities on the ease and the probabilities have gone from basically 30% up into the close to 70 and it's backed off but right under 70%. But I think the real story is h how the interest rate complex is shadow boxing uh the equity side and mostly when it goes higher. Now if ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan has issued its strongest warning yet regarding the recent volatility of the yen, with the finance minister indicating that intervention is a potential response to curb the yen's continued decline [1][4]. Group 1: Government Actions and Statements - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed deep concern over the extreme and rapid fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, stating that appropriate actions will be taken against disorderly movements, including potential intervention [1][4]. - The government is expected to announce a significant economic stimulus package, funded by an additional budget of 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD), which is the largest since the reduction of pandemic-era measures [4][5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the 160 yen per dollar level, as the Japanese authorities have previously intervened in this range [3][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - The dollar briefly fell to 157.20 yen following the finance minister's comments but rebounded, remaining near its highest level since January [1]. - Analysts suggest that the yen is becoming a speculative tool, with market sensitivity to Japanese officials' comments diminishing, and macroeconomic factors supporting a weaker yen [4][6]. - There is speculation that Japan may intervene before the yen reaches the 160 mark, as the government believes it has sufficient foreign reserves to act if necessary [5][9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Japan has previously intervened in the market four times last year to support the yen, costing approximately 100 billion USD, and has spent around 173 billion USD since 2022 on interventions [9]. - The Japanese government emphasizes that intervention will only occur in response to sudden, disorderly, or speculative fluctuations in the market [9][11]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest since 2008, reflecting market optimism about the Japanese economy despite concerns over fiscal stability [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Korea [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The South Korean won has fallen 6% over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. - The USD/KRW exchange rate is nearing the historical high of 1487.45, with the won recently trading at 1468.77 [1][3]. - The recent announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year has added pressure to its value [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors have sold a net $5.2 billion worth of South Korean stocks this month, despite the KOSPI index reaching historical highs [3]. - The announcement of the 24-hour trading policy did not generate positive market sentiment, as the KOSPI index fell by 2.3% on the day of the announcement [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under pressure to intervene in the foreign exchange market, with its governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed [4]. - The central bank's cautious stance contrasts with other Asian economies that have recently cut interest rates to support their currencies [5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected South Korea's economic growth at only 0.9% this year, the lowest among major Asian economies [5]. - The yield on 10-year South Korean government bonds has risen to a 16-month high, indicating market expectations of an end to the current monetary easing cycle [5]. Group 5: Potential Strategies - Market participants speculate that one feasible strategy for the Bank of Korea to support the won could involve the national pension fund selling US dollars, a tactic previously employed [6]. - The National Pension Service of Korea has engaged in significant transactions to rebalance its portfolio, including selling dollars to purchase domestic stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won is approaching its lowest point since 2009, creating pressure on the Bank of Korea to protect the currency as it nears a critical exchange rate level against the US dollar [1][3] Group 1: Currency Performance - The won is approximately 1% away from breaking the level of 1487.45 per US dollar, which would mark the lowest point since March 2009 [1] - The won has depreciated by 6% over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia [3] Group 2: Central Bank Response - Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong indicated a willingness to intervene if excessive volatility occurs, but downplayed the current weakness, suggesting that the market is overly sensitive to global uncertainties [1] - Unlike Japan's authorities, who have only issued verbal warnings regarding yen depreciation, the Bank of Korea has taken a more cautious and traditional approach [3] Group 3: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects South Korea's economic growth rate at 0.9% for this year, the slowest among Asian countries [3] - The Bank of Korea has maintained interest rates since a cut in May, contrasting with other regional countries [3] Group 4: Capital Flows - One potential strategy for supporting the won is for national pension institutions to sell US dollars, a tactic previously employed by the South Korean government [3] - Foreign investors have net sold $5.2 billion in local stocks this month, contributing to capital outflows and increased overseas investments by residents [3]