存储涨价
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东方证券:存储涨价情绪持续升温 持续看好国产存储产业链
智通财经网· 2025-09-23 07:17
Group 1 - Micron has decided to suspend quotes for DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, and LPDDR5X, with industry rumors suggesting a potential price increase of 20%-30% for channel storage products [1][2] - The supply-demand balance is shifting towards a seller's market, leading to a price surge for DDR4 and LPDDR4X starting from Q2, which is expected to continue into the first half of next year [1][2] - The supply of DDR5 and LPDDR5X is expected to tighten in the second half of the year due to HBM capacity constraints and the transition between old and new processes, resulting in a comprehensive price increase in the DRAM market [1][2] Group 2 - NAND storage price increase sentiment is rising, with SanDisk announcing price hikes, leading to a rapid increase in industry and channel market prices [1][2] - Flash wafer prices have risen by 1.82%-6.25%, with the highest weekly increase for SSD 256GB in the industry market reaching 8.62% [1][2] - The supply side is implementing price increase strategies for certain NAND resources, significantly raising the urgency for industry clients to procure, with expectations of continued price increases for enterprise storage in Q4 due to rising demand [1][2] Group 3 - Samsung's 12-layer stacked HBM3E has successfully passed NVIDIA certification, positioning itself in the HBM supply chain [3] - Samsung aims to develop the next-generation HBM4 technology, achieving a data transfer rate of 11Gbps, making it the first company to reach this milestone [3] - As original manufacturers increase investment in HBM competition and reduce niche DRAM capacity, domestic Tier 2 niche DRAM suppliers are expected to gain greater market space [3] Group 4 - The storage market remains robust, with domestic advanced storage capacity continuously expanding, driven by AI servers and terminals, alongside opportunities for domestic substitution [4] - Relevant stocks in the storage industry include: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), Puran (688766.SH), Demingli (001309.SH), Baiwei Storage (688525.SH), Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ), Langke Technology (300042.SZ), Dongxin Co. (688110.SH), Jiangbolong (301308.SH), Hengshuo Co. (688416.SH), Wanrun Technology (002654.SZ), Deep Technology (000021.SZ), Tongyou Technology (300302.SZ), Juchen Co. (688123.SH), and Lianyun Technology (688449.SH) [4]
江波龙(301308):存储涨价周期核心标的,TCM模式+企业级存储+自研主控构筑长期高毛利高壁垒
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-20 15:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 115.2 CNY, reflecting an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core player in the storage price increase cycle, benefiting from both price and volume growth in the storage market, with expected quarterly performance improvements in 2025 [1]. - The company is recognized as a leader in domestic substitution, with significant growth projected in enterprise-level storage products, forecasting revenues of 922 million CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 666.3% [2]. - The self-developed controller technology is establishing a technical barrier, enhancing the company's profitability and operational efficiency through its TCM model, which integrates supply chain management and customer relationships [3]. - The investment thesis highlights a dual logic of "cycle + growth," with short-term benefits from storage price increases, medium-term revenue growth from domestic enterprise storage, and long-term profitability through self-developed chips and TCM model [4]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 23.05 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 32% [5]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is revised down to 480 million CNY, with subsequent years showing significant growth to 1.61 billion CNY in 2026 and 2.08 billion CNY in 2027 [5]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 2.41 billion CNY, reflecting a strong operational performance [5]. Market Position - The company ranks third in China for enterprise-level SATA SSD total capacity in 2024, showcasing its capability in eSSD and RDIMM product design and supply [2]. - The company has successfully adapted its PCIe SSD and SATA SSD series to multiple domestic CPU platforms, expanding its customer base across various industries [2].