1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, the Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. - For urea, the import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. - For polypropylene, although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 1.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.33%, to 428.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 18.00 yuan/ton, or 0.73%, to 2479.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.27%, to 2925.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a draw of 2.10 million barrels in crude oil arrival inventory to 205.11 million barrels, a build of 0.58 million barrels in gasoline commercial inventory to 89.62 million barrels, a build of 0.42 million barrels in diesel commercial inventory to 92.56 million barrels, and a build of 1.00 million barrels in total refined oil commercial inventory to 182.18 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had various changes. The main futures contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 2293 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 265 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had changes, and the overall basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 1778 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and rubber prices fluctuated upwards. There were different views from bulls and bears. The total inventory of natural rubber in China increased, and the tire start - up rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 155 yuan to 4919 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 78.6%, with an increase of 1.4%. The inventory in factories and society increased [7]. - **Strategy View**: The overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased while that of pure benzene increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 130 yuan/ton to 6579 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 93 yuan/ton to 6423 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 80 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the inventory in production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7336 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic plants restarted and expanded production. The PTA load increased. The import volume from South Korea to China in December increased, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5150 yuan. The PTA load increased, and some plants restarted and increased production. The downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan to 3838 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly. Some domestic and overseas plants had operation changes. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [2]. - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [4]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative expectations for the urea fundamentals are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, with a temporary wait - and - see attitude. It is recommended to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historically low level, with relatively small short - term valuation pressure. However, the reduction in supply is limited, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and no anti - dumping duties are expected, there is still off - season pressure. Overall, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term before significant production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The production of styrene is increasing, and its port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the downward space for PE valuation still exists. The overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level, providing support for prices. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply glut may ease. There are no capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the pressure on the supply side will be relieved. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price of the futures contract is expected to bottom out after the supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, the current PX load remains high, and there are many maintenance activities for downstream PTA. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern. Although the valuation has increased significantly, the supply - demand situation of both PX and downstream PTA will be strong next year. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips should be considered in the medium term [28]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the polyester fiber profit is under pressure. The load of the industry will gradually decline due to the off - season. After a short - term inventory reduction, PTA is expected to enter an inventory - building period during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips should be considered in the medium term [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load of the industry is still relatively high. Although the expected import volume in January will decline, the decline is limited, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of new capacity. The valuation is currently moderately low compared to the same period in previous years. In the absence of further production cuts in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 14.80 yuan/barrel, a 3.39% decline, at 421.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures contracts of related refined oil products also declined: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 29.00 yuan/ton, a 1.18% decline, at 2427.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton, a 2.20% decline, at 2891.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels, a 15.07% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels, a 0.81% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels, a 5.60% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels, a 15.18% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels, a 4.43% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels, a 1.00% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions showed changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions had the following changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by - 10 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 68 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 19 yuan/ton, at 1768 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated within a narrow range. The bulls of natural rubber RU were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, believing that the weather and the current situation of rubber plantations in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production growth, and the seasonality of rubber usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. The bears were pessimistic due to weak demand, believing that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the expected postponement of EUDR and the supply benefits might be less than expected. The tire operating rate showed marginal deterioration. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with slower shipments and higher inventory pressure. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with slower shipping rhythms and higher inventory pressure. As of December 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 million tons, a 3 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 2.5% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons, a 3.4% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons, a 1% increase; the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14800 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1875 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1875 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8650 (+200) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11050 (+50) yuan [9][10][11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell by 41 yuan to 4764 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 284 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 131 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 690 (- 13) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 78.4%, a 0.1% decrease, and the ethylene method was 79.3%, a 5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and the social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 83.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.5 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the basis was 211 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 142.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 71.275 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.725 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase; the operating rate of PS was 59.40%, a 4.90% increase; the operating rate of EPS was 52.56%, a 0.76% increase; the operating rate of ABS was 69.40%, a 0.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6449 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6435 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the basis was - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.2%, a 0.36% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.07 million tons, a decrease of 8.79 million tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.69%, a 0.16% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 49.07 million tons, a decrease of 4.26 million tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 17.72 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 6.63 million tons, a decrease of 0.24 million tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 119 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous week [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell by 50 yuan to 7210 yuan, the PX CFR price fell by 9 US dollars to 884 US dollars, and the basis was - 54 yuan (- 29) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB. The 3 - 5 spread was - 2 yuan (+4). The operating rate of PX in China was 90.6%, a 2.4% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 80.9%, a 1.4% increase. Domestically, Fujia Dahua restarted and expanded its capacity. The operating rate of PTA was 78.1%, a 5.6% increase; Dushan Energy and Zhongtai restarted, and Weilian Chemical increased its production. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 43.3 million tons of PX to China in December, a 4.2 - million - ton increase from the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (+2), South Korea's PX - MX was 146 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 US dollars (+1) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell by 64 yuan to 5046 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 65 yuan to 5030 yuan, the basis was - 49 yuan (- 3), and the 5 - 9 spread was 90 yuan (- 10). The operating rate of PTA was 78.1%, a 5.6% increase; Dushan Energy and Zhongtai restarted, and Weilian Chemical increased its production. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, a 0.4% increase; Hengyi's 55 - million - ton chemical fiber and China Resources' 30 - million - ton bottle - grade chip restarted, while Yisheng's 25 - million - ton bottle - grade chip, Hengyi's 55 - million - ton filament, and Sanfangxiang's 50 - million - ton bottle - grade chip were under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 5% to 74%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 1% to 59%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 26 was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 13 yuan to 336 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 31 yuan to 316 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell by 71 yuan to 3732 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 41 yuan to 3640 yuan, the basis was - 126 yuan (+15), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 90 yuan (+3). On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.7%, a 0.4% increase; among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 75.9%, a 1.4% decrease, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 72.5%, a 1.5% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Tianye's plant resumed operation after an accidental shutdown, Huayi restarted, and Henan Coal Industry replaced the catalyst; among the petrochemical plants, Far East Union restarted; overseas, the plant of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, shut down. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, a 0.4% increase

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: Current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year. Although short - term downside risks remain, due to geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long on dips [3]. - Urea: The current domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - Rubber: The current situation calls for a neutral approach and temporary observation. Partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [14]. - PVC: Fundamentally, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, supply reduction is limited, production is at a historical high, and domestic demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, strong sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, the strategy is to go short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [16]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. Before the first quarter of next year, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - Polyethylene: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - induced decline to production mismatch. Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - Polypropylene: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - PX: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern. In the short - term, there is a large expected component in the market, so beware of correction risks. In the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [27]. - PTA: In the short - term, supply will maintain high - level maintenance. Demand for polyester and chemical fibers is under pressure, and due to the off - season, the load will gradually decline. After short - term inventory depletion, PTA will enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage. In the short - term, beware of corrections due to over - expectation, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: The overall load is still relatively high. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue, and in the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. Valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Detailed Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Futures Prices: As of the last trading day of the holidays, the INE main crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% decline, at 432.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 37.00 yuan/ton (1.49%) at 2447.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton (2.17%) at 2935.00 yuan/ton [1]. - European ARA Data: Gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels (15.07% MoM), diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels (0.81% MoM), fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels (5.60% MoM), naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels (15.18% MoM), aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels (4.43% MoM), and the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels (1.00% MoM) [1]. Methanol - Spot Price Changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - Spot Price Changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 59 yuan/ton [5]. - Futures Price: The main contract changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 1749 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - Price Movement: Rubber prices were in a sideways consolidation. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand [10][11]. - Tire Industry: As of December 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, down 2.46 ppts from last week and 0.02 ppts from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, up 0.98 ppts from last week but down 5.05 ppts from the same period last year. Tire inventories were under high pressure [12]. - Inventory: As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 million tons, a 2.5% increase MoM. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons (3.4% increase), and that of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons (1% increase). The inventory in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons [12]. - Spot Prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14650 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1855 (- 5) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1860 (0) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8350 (0) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11000 (0) yuan [13]. PVC - Futures and Spot Prices: The PVC05 contract fell 5 yuan to 4805 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 305 (+5) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 134 (- 1) yuan/ton [15]. - Cost and Supply: The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 745 (0) dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 703 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase MoM; the calcium carbide method was 78.4% (0.1% decrease), and the ethylene method was 79.3% (5% increase) [15]. - Demand and Inventory: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease MoM. Factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Price and Basis: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active contract was 5463 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 123 yuan/ton (24 - yuan expansion). The spot price of styrene rose 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 6791 yuan/ton, and the basis was 109 yuan/ton (40 - yuan strengthening) [18]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.05 million tons to 13.88 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase. The operating rate of PS was 59.40% (4.90% increase), EPS was 52.56% (0.76% increase), and ABS was 69.40% (0.70% decrease) [18]. - Profit: The BZN spread was 133.37 yuan/ton (4 - yuan decrease), and the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 76.1 yuan/ton (40 - yuan increase) [18]. Polyethylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 6472 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 6375 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (1 - yuan weakening) [21]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 82.27%, a 0.82% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.79 million tons to 37.07 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 2.76 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease MoM. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton (2 - yuan narrowing) [21]. Polypropylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 27 yuan/ton to 6348 yuan/ton, the spot price was unchanged at 6275 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 73 yuan/ton (27 - yuan weakening) [23]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 75.65%, a 1.76% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.45 million tons to 53.33 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.24%, a 0.56% decrease MoM. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton (16 - yuan narrowing) [23][24]. PX - Futures and Spot Prices: The PX03 contract fell 56 yuan to 7260 yuan, PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 893 dollars, and the basis was - 25 yuan (+42). The 3 - 5 spread was - 6 yuan (+10) [26]. - Load and Inventory: China's PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. In December, South Korea exported 28.3 million tons of PX to China, a 0.8 - million - ton increase YoY. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease MoM [26]. - Valuation and Cost: PXN was 355 dollars (- 1), South Korea's PX - MX was 143 dollars (- 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 89 dollars (+3) [26]. PTA - Futures and Spot Prices: The PTA05 contract fell 34 yuan to 5110 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 5095 yuan, the basis was - 46 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan (- 18) [29]. - Load and Inventory: The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. On December 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease [29]. - Valuation and Cost: The spot processing fee of PTA rose 4 yuan to 349 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 347 yuan [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Futures and Spot Prices: The EG05 contract fell 44 yuan to 3803 yuan, the East China spot price fell 13 yuan to 3681 yuan, the basis was - 141 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan (- 9) [31]. - Supply and Demand: The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 10.7 million tons, and the East China departure on December 30 was 1.1 million tons. The port inventory was 73 million tons, a 1.4 - million - ton increase [31]. - Valuation and Cost: The naphtha - based profit was - 829 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 925 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 188 yuan. The cost of ethylene was flat at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 540 yuan [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improved supply - demand conditions, lower inventory, and support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. At low prices, consider buying on dips [5][6]. - For rubber, the price is oscillating weakly. Bulls and bears have different views. The current strategy is neutral, with a partial closing of the hedge of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 recommended [8][9][11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show low comprehensive corporate profits, high supply, and weak domestic demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [11][13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [15][16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and high - level inventory reduction, consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [18][19]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus expansion and seasonal oscillation in downstream demand, the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [20][21]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the short - term, beware of correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [23][24]. - For PTA, after short - term destocking, it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. In the short - term, beware of over - expectation correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for long - buying opportunities [25][27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline, at 434.80 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. European ARA weekly data showed mixed changes in refined oil inventories, with a 1.49% overall increase in refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had varying declines. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2161 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was 137 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices remained unchanged, with a total basis of - 25 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 1735 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating higher. With improved supply - demand conditions, lower inventory, and support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. At low prices, consider buying on dips [5][6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple previously strong varieties declined, and the rubber price oscillated weakly. The tire开工率 showed mixed changes, and the domestic natural rubber social inventory increased [8][10]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy is neutral, with a partial closing of the hedge of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 recommended [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 55 yuan to 4777 yuan. The cost - side prices were mostly stable. The overall开工率 was 77.2%, with a 0.2% decline. The downstream开工率 was 44.5%, with a 0.9% decline. Factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals show low comprehensive corporate profits, high supply, and weak domestic demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged, with an expanded basis. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with a strengthened basis. Supply - side开工率 increased, and demand - side开工率 showed mixed changes. Port inventories of both increased [15]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6453 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decline. The spot price rose 50 yuan to 6340 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The downstream average开工率 decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and high - level inventory reduction, consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6274 yuan/ton, an 18 - yuan decline. The spot price was unchanged at 6250 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 decreased slightly, and inventory showed mixed changes. The downstream average开工率 decreased [20]. - **Strategy**: With expected supply surplus expansion and seasonal oscillation in downstream demand, the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 286 yuan to 7270 yuan. PX CFR fell 28 dollars to 891 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. Import volume increased, and inventory increased [23]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the short - term, beware of correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 158 yuan to 5122 yuan. The East China spot price fell 110 yuan to 5065 yuan. The load decreased slightly, and some plants had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased, and inventory decreased. The spot and futures processing fees increased [25][26]. - **Strategy**: After short - term destocking, it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. In the short - term, beware of over - expectation correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for long - buying opportunities [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan to 3817 yuan. The East China spot price rose 21 yuan to 3687 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased, and port inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy**: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to build a bottom while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [9] - For rubber, a neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] - For polypropylene, there is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.27% decline, at 441.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while fuel oil and total refined oil inventories decreased [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 2161 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was 40 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas increased. The main futures contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. Buying on dips is recommended [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose significantly. There are different views among bulls and bears. The start - up load of domestic tire enterprises showed different trends, and social inventory increased [11][12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 75 yuan to 4832 yuan. The overall start - up rate decreased slightly, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased. Supply - side start - up rate increased, and port inventory increased. Demand - side start - up rate decreased [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 75 yuan/ton to 6465 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 26 yuan/ton to 6292 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, production and trader inventories decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 198 yuan to 7556 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. PTA load decreased, and import volume increased [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 128 yuan to 5280 yuan. The PTA load decreased slightly, and some plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and inventory decreased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 28 yuan to 3846 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and port inventory increased [31] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there are still pressures in the future due to high imports and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies [3]. - For urea, the market continues to oscillate higher. The demand has improved in the short term, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently having a neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended. It is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong domestic supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, the load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market performance: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.68%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 2.00 yuan/ton, or 0.08%, to 2,480.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 14.00 yuan/ton, or 0.47%, to 3,014.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory data: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.70 million barrels to 6.27 million barrels, a 10.08% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 2.29 million barrels, a 14.25% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 10.38 million barrels, an 8.95% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.10 million barrels to 18.94 million barrels, a 10.00% decline [1]. Methanol - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Hebei decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively, while Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 2,172 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 24 yuan [2]. - Strategy: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port inventory will decline, but there are future pressures. The fundamentals have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Hubei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 1,735 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: The market oscillates higher. The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand has improved, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Rubber - Market performance: Bulls believe in factors such as limited production growth due to weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, the seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the off - season demand, and the possible under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.152 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,000 tons, a 2.5% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,000 tons, a 2.8% increase. The total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 494,200 (+94,000) tons [9][10]. - Strategy: A neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended, and it is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market performance: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4,781 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,480 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (-7) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.4%, a 2.1% decline from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decline. The factory inventory was 329,000 tons (-16,000), and the social inventory was 1.057 million tons (-3,000) [12]. - Strategy: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, and in the medium term, shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products on the demand side was 40.60%, a 1.67% decline [16]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,408 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 112 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 17,200 tons to 487,800 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 35,600 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decline [19]. - Strategy: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, a 120 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 120 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 537,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 90,000 tons to 198,300 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 67,500 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decline [21]. - Strategy: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX - Market performance: The PX03 contract fell 8 yuan to 7,294 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 901 dollars. The basis was 24 yuan (+43), and the 3 - 5 spread was 16 yuan (-4). The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period; the Asian load was 78.9%, a 0.4% decline. Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, and some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. In mid - and early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 283,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons [24]. - Strategy: The load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. PTA - Market performance: The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan to 5,094 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan to 5,015 yuan. The basis was - 19 yuan (-2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 78 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom load decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 2.15 million tons, a 19,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee rose 17 yuan to 309 yuan [26]. - Strategy: The supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The EG05 contract rose 195 yuan to 3,818 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 3,573 yuan. The basis was - 13 yuan (-8), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 62 yuan (+19). The ethylene glycol load was 72%, a 2% increase. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure was 12,000 tons on December 23. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 995 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1,064 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan [28]. - Strategy: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29].

Core Insights - The article highlights strong seasonal demand for fresh masa in Los Angeles, with thousands queuing at Amapola market despite rising prices, indicating resilience in traditional cultural food [1] Group 1 - There is a significant cultural tradition associated with masa, which drives consumer behavior during the holiday season [1] - The increase in prices has not deterred consumers, showcasing the strong demand for this product [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. - For PTA, the supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed up 8.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.92% increase, at 440.90 yuan/barrel. China's crude oil weekly data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 206.16 million barrels, a 0.14% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 15 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, closing at 2156 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 179 yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Hubei by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23 yuan/ton, closing at 1721 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 31 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were in an oscillating consolidation. The buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. The long - side believed in limited rubber production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations in China, while the short - side cited uncertain macro expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 147 yuan, closing at 4738 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 318 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 128 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease. Factory inventory was 32.9 million tons (-1.6), and social inventory was 105.7 million tons (-0.3) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5315 yuan/ton with no change, and the active contract closed at 5425 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6509 yuan/ton, a 31 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products decreased by 1.67% to 40.60% [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. Polyolefin (Polyethylene and Polypropylene) Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 6296 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6300 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 million tons to 48.78 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons to 3.56 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% month - on - month decrease [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6158 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.07 million tons to 53.78 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons to 19.83 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 6.75 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. Polyester (PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol) PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 44 yuan, closing at 7302 yuan. The CFR price of PX increased by 4 dollars to 896 dollars. The Chinese PX operating rate was 88.1% with no change, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, a 0.4% month - on - month decrease. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days were 28.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, a 4.8 - million - ton month - on - month increase [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 42 yuan, closing at 5082 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 70 yuan to 4955 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease. The downstream operating rate was 91.2% with no change. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 million tons, a 1.9 - million - ton month - on - month decrease [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 112 yuan, closing at 3623 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 3563 yuan. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, a 2% month - on - month increase. The port inventory was 71.6 million tons, a 3 - million - ton month - on - month increase [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. Import arrivals will remain high, and port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It's expected to trade in a low - level range, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve needs and higher compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. - For natural rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it's advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.10 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 429.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 2.01%, to 2439.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 46.00 yuan/ton, or 1.59%, to 2931.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 424.42 million barrels, while SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 412.17 million barrels. Gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene inventories all increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was - 198 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. The port inventory is decreasing, but future pressure remains. The supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 38 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 62 yuan/ton to 1708 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and the buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 million tons as of December 14, 2025, up 2.9 million tons, or 2.6% [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 28 yuan to 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4430 (+30) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 278 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.4%, down 0.5%. Factory inventory was 34.4 million tons (+1.8), and social inventory was 105.9 million tons (unchanged) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5290 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5381 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6385 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.11%, down 0.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.21 million tons to 13.47 million tons [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6476 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, down 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 million tons, up 1.72 million tons, and the trader inventory was 3.56 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6279 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, down 1.66%. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 million tons, up 0.07 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.83 million tons, down 0.9 million tons, and the port inventory was 6.75 million tons, down 0.07 million tons [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. Polyester PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 90 yuan to 6862 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 6 dollars to 840 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 79.3%, up 0.7%. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 13.9 million tons, down 0.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, up 4.8 million tons month - on - month [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 64 yuan to 4748 yuan. The East China spot price rose 45 yuan to 4650 yuan. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 215 million tons as of December 12, down 1.9 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 9 yuan to 3767 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 3667 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 72%, up 2%. The port inventory was 84.4 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32].

Seasonal Demand Shifts: The conclusion of the Diwali festival in India, a major global gold consumer, also contributed to a reduction in physical demand, removing one of the key supporting tailwinds for the price.Uncertainty Over Federal Reserve Policy: While expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts initially fueled gold's rally, ongoing uncertainty and a lack of precise data (partially due to a U.S. government shutdown in late fall) have contributed to market indecisiveness. The CME Group' ...