Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russian - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand slowdown in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits. Also, prepare for the September Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol currently has a high valuation and weakening supply - demand fundamentals, facing price pressure [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. The current price is not high, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position allocation on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price has rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended. Consider a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 [9]. - PVC has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is advisable to wait and see, observing whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up [10]. - For benzene ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upwards [14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [17]. - For PX, with high load maintenance and strong demand from new PTA installations, it is expected to continue de - stocking. It is recommended to consider buying on dips following crude oil [20]. - For PTA, although there will be inventory build - up in August, due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, it is recommended to consider buying on dips following PX [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.90, or 1.38%, to $64.27; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.72, or 1.06%, to $66.96; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.90 yuan, or 0.57%, to 505.9 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.03 million barrels to 423.66 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.98 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 227.08 million barrels, a 0.58% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 112.97 million barrels, a 0.50% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.24 million barrels to 19.80 million barrels, a 1.19% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 44.36 million barrels, a 2.24% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side enterprise profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventories are accelerating the build - up, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously falling [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 22 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 30 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly decreased but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to rise as plants resume operation. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer plants are starting autumn fertilizer production, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, and the seasonal pattern usually shows an upward trend in the second half of the year, along with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, up 0.46 million tons, or 0.4%; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.5 million tons, up 1.2%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48.9 million tons, down 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao was 50.85 (+ 0.29) million tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 9 yuan to 5051 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4920 (+ 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 131 (+ 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 138 (- 3) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 76%, down 3.2%; the ethylene method was 79%, up 8.7%. The overall downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 million tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 million tons (+ 3.9). Enterprise comprehensive profits reached a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure, decreasing maintenance, and high production levels. Domestic downstream operating rates were at a low level, and Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [10]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and although the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, the start - up rate of benzene ethylene has continued to rise. Port inventories have been significantly reduced, and the overall operating rate of three S products in the demand side has fluctuated upwards [14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. Traders' inventories are oscillating at a high level, and demand for agricultural films is at a low level. In August, there is a large production capacity release pressure, and the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is only 45 million tons of planned production capacity release. In the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [17]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 60 yuan to 6794 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 844 dollars, with a basis of 153 yuan (- 14) and a 9 - 1 spread of 50 yuan (+ 22) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The load of PX in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The load of downstream PTA has decreased in the short - term, but the inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates are about to end the off - season. New PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4724 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4680 yuan, with a basis of - 21 yuan (- 2) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 30 yuan (+ 10) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load decreased by 7.1%. Some plants have reduced their loads or stopped production, and new plants have been put into operation. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Inventories have been increasing, and the processing fee has limited operating space. Due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, there is less negative feedback pressure [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 15 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 28 yuan to 4491 yuan, with a basis of 80 yuan (+ 1) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 21 (+ 6) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load decreased by 0.7%, and some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 million tons, and port inventories decreased by 0.5 million tons. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of coal increased. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions and profit - taking on dips, and left - side trading for Russia's geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover, while demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. High inventory and weakening supply - demand fundamentals put pressure on prices [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. Although the current price is not high and the room for further decline is limited, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. After the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, volatility is expected to gradually decline [6]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal off - season demand, and potential under - performance of production cuts. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term [8][10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. After the anti - involution sentiment fades, prices have dropped significantly in the short - term [10]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [13]. - Polyethylene prices will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term, with high production capacity release pressure in August. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July, with the cost side likely to dominate the market under the background of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [16]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking. With a neutral valuation, there are short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [19]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season for polyester and terminal production, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [20]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong. With high overseas device loads and expected increases in arrivals, there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price:** WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1.52%, to $66.24; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.84, or 1.21%, to $68.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan, or 2.58%, to 514.3 yuan [1]. - **Data:** China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.07 million barrels to 90.85 million barrels, a 1.17% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 102.78 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 193.64 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 [4]. - **Fundamentals:** Affected by overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Supply pressure will increase as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the basis and inter - month spread are falling [4]. Urea - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract rose 24 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 17 [6]. - **Fundamentals:** Supply is slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and production is expected to increase gradually. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production for autumn is starting, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Price:** NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8]. - **Fundamentals:** Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls expect production cuts and improved demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and seasonal off - season demand. Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and natural rubber inventories are increasing [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term. Consider long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for opportunistic band trading [10]. PVC - **Price:** The PVC09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4981 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 121 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (- 1) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals:** Cost is stable, overall production capacity utilization is 76.8%, with an increase of 0.05%. Downstream demand is weak, and inventories are increasing. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level, and valuations are under pressure [10]. Benzene Styrene - **Price:** The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals:** The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. Cost support exists, supply is increasing, port inventory is decreasing significantly, and demand is oscillating upwards in the off - season [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [15]. - **Fundamentals:** Market expects an improvement in China's PMI in July, and cost support exists. Spot prices are falling, and inventory pressure is loosening. Demand is weak in the off - season, and there is high production capacity release pressure in August [15]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [16]. - **Fundamentals:** Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and production capacity utilization is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and cost is likely to dominate the market. There is limited planned production capacity release in August [16]. PX - **Price:** The PX09 contract fell 58 yuan to 6754 yuan, PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 838 dollars, the basis was 142 (- 18) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals:** PX production capacity utilization is high, downstream PTA short - term maintenance is increasing, and overall production capacity utilization is decreasing, but PTA inventory is low, and polyester and terminal production are approaching the end of the off - season. PX is expected to continue de - stocking [18][19]. PTA - **Price:** The PTA09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price fell 60 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 15 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (+4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals:** PTA production capacity utilization is decreasing, and new devices are being put into operation. Supply is expected to increase, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price:** The EG09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4389 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4455 yuan, the basis was 78 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 28 (+6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals:** Production capacity utilization is slightly decreasing, overseas device loads are high, and arrivals are expected to increase. Downstream demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down, and valuations are under pressure [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side layout for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption season [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is expected to increase, and the demand side may turn weak, so methanol may face downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply and demand are weak, and there is no significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, the price is consolidating after a decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build-up pattern. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the inventory to build up. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.34%, at $69.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.92, or 1.25%, at $72.55; INE main crude oil futures closed up 1.70 yuan, or 0.32%, at 531.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.22 million barrels to 12.75 million barrels, a 1.72% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.59 million barrels to 8.46 million barrels, a 7.47% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 24.67 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 1.33 million barrels to 45.87 million barrels, a 3.00% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of -10 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and is expected to increase, while the demand side may turn weak, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The inventory level has decreased [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +46 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. Exports are an important source of demand growth. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are consolidating after a significant decline, following the trend of industrial products [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Tire factory operating rates have declined, and the demand is in a seasonal off-season. The supply reduction may be less than expected. The inventory has increased [10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Wait and see for now, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 118 yuan to 5041 yuan, and the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 4950 (-110) yuan/ton, with a basis of -91 (+8) yuan/ton and a 9-1 spread of -135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price has increased, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply has increased, the port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand has increased slightly [14]. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton, strengthening 37 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 47 yuan/ton, strengthening 27 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased slightly, the inventory situation is mixed, and the downstream demand is weak. The cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 56 yuan to 6928 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 858 dollars, with a basis of 142 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of 64 yuan (-42) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate has decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate is high, the inventory is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates have recovered. The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan to 4808 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan to 4825 yuan, with a basis of -15 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of -32 yuan (-34) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand side is about to end the off-season, and the inventory has increased. The processing fee has limited room for operation [22]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 24 yuan to 4503 yuan, with a basis of 68 yuan (+2) and a 9-1 spread of -27 yuan (+1) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, the port inventory has decreased, and the valuation is relatively high. The fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit the upside potential of crude oil. A short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips, and left-side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when oil prices plunge [2]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.05, or 1.52%, to $70.3/barrel; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.71, or 0.98%, to $73.47/barrel; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.30 yuan, or 0.24%, to 529.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 426.69 million barrels, a 1.84% increase; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.74 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 228.41 million barrels, a 1.18% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 3.64 million barrels to 113.54 million barrels, a 3.31% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.20 million barrels to 20.04 million barrels, a 0.97% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 2.11 million barrels to 43.39 million barrels, a 4.63% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2419 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of -9 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream开工率 has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure is expected to increase marginally. MTO profits have declined again, port开工率 remains stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and methanol may face downward pressure. Port inventories have increased, year-on-year inventories are low, and overall inventory levels have decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1742 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工率 continues to decline, and enterprise profits have rebounded but are still at a relatively low level. As the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improves, the cost support for urea gradually strengthens. The开工率 of compound fertilizers has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and port inventories continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have oscillated downward after a significant correction. Supply concerns have eased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather conditions in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, and the current situation of rubber plantations may lead to a reduction in rubber production. Rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macroeconomic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the reduction in supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider a long-short spread operation on RU2601 and RU2509 [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5060 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was -99 (+73) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -137 (-13) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall开工率 of PVC is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. The demand side is weak, and downstream开工率 is at a five-year low and still in the off-season. Exports are affected by India's anti-dumping policy. The cost support has weakened. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices have both risen, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term macroeconomic positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with significant room for upward repair. The开工率 of pure benzene has declined slightly, but supply remains ample. The开工率 of styrene has continued to increase. Port inventories have increased significantly, and demand is in the seasonal off-season. It is expected that the BZN spread will repair in the short term, and styrene prices may follow the cost side and oscillate upward after port inventories are reduced [13][14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen [16]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. Spot prices have risen, and PE valuations have limited downward space. Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. Demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the overall开工率 is oscillating downward. The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward movement to high maintenance boosting inventory reduction. There is a large capacity release pressure in August, and polyethylene prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profits of Shandong refineries have stopped falling and rebounded, and the开工率 is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off-season, and downstream开工率 is oscillating downward. There is only 450,000 tons of planned capacity to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market. It is expected that polypropylene prices will follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July [17]. PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 42 yuan to 6984 yuan, and PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 866 dollars. The basis was 147 yuan (+25), and the 9-1 spread was 106 yuan (-2) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: PX开工率 remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the开工率 of the downstream is relatively high. Inventory levels are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is still small in the short term. New PTA plants are planned to be put into operation soon, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. Valuations are currently at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [19][21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4860 yuan. The basis was -10 yuan (-5), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (-4) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA开工率 is 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. Downstream开工率 has increased, and terminal开工率 has also recovered. Inventories have increased slightly. PTA processing fees have limited room for operation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [22]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 17 yuan to 4527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+4), and the 9-1 spread was -28 yuan (-3) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has increased, and downstream开工率 has also increased. Port inventories have decreased. Valuations are relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Saudi Arabian plants have all restarted, and the expected arrival volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the current market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and higher operational difficulty. It is advisable to observe more and act less. The subsequent domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also constrained by high supply. Currently, the valuation of urea is neutral to low, and it is more inclined to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large increase, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a pullback. A neutral approach with quick entry and exit is recommended [11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the postponement of Indian anti - dumping, but there are still pressures on supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of anti - dumping postponement and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment reversal should be guarded against [13]. - For benzene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price of benzene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction. The price of polyethylene is expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, with a relatively high load level. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. In the short term, the negative feedback pressure from the polyester and terminal sectors is small, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [21][23]. - For PTA, in the subsequent period, the supply side is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the room for PTA processing fee repair is limited. The demand side is under continuous pressure during the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak, but in the short term, the valuation has upward support due to lower - than - expected imports and domestic plant accidents [25]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, 2025, the front - month WTI crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.42%, at $65.42; the front - month Brent crude oil futures closed unchanged at $68.67; the front - month INE crude oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, or 1.11%, at 520.4 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 418.99 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; SPR inventories increased by 0.20 million barrels to 402.50 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.74 million barrels to 231.13 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.93 million barrels to 109.90 million barrels, a 2.74% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 20.23 million barrels, a 0.47% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.69 million barrels to 45.50 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, the 09 contract fell 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +6 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and the profit decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load increased this week, while the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid declining and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. Overall, the demand was weak. After the methanol price decline, the downstream profit was repaired but remained at a relatively low level. The methanol spot valuation was still high, and the upside was limited in the off - season [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with the cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, supporting the demand for urea. The export container collection continued, and the port inventory continued to rise. The subsequent demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU showed a sideways movement after continuous increases, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market weakened [8]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 0.54 percentage points from the previous week and 12.19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.62%, up 3.07 percentage points from the previous week and 3.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton increase, or a 0.14% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. As of July 20, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 505,600 (-19,000) tons [9][10]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,600 (-100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,795 (-10) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,800 (-5) dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9,650 (-50) yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11,600 (-100) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PVC09 contract fell 109 yuan to 5,151 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5,070 (-10) yuan/ton, the basis was -81 (+99) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was -118 (-4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Operating Rates**: The cost side remained stable, with the calcium carbide price in Wuhai at 2,250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price at 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price at 820 (0) dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.6%, a 0.6% increase; the calcium carbide method operating rate was 79.7%, a 0.5% increase; the ethylene method operating rate was 72%, a 0.9% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 40.1%, a 1% decrease. The in - plant inventory was 368,000 (-14,000) tons, and the social inventory was 657,000 (+34,000) tons [13]. Benzene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of benzene decreased, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large room for upward repair [15][16]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side: the operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was abundant. The supply side: the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the benzene operating rate continued to rise. The benzene port inventory increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products increased [16]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The black sector showed a pull - back after a rise, and the cost side still provided support. The polyethylene spot price increased, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The trader inventory fluctuated at a high level, weakening the price support. In the seasonal off - season, the agricultural film orders were at a low level and fluctuated, and the overall operating rate decreased. In July, the ethylene plant of Huizhou ExxonMobil was put into operation, and the polyethylene price was expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate was expected to gradually recover, with the propylene supply gradually returning [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In the demand side, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July was expected to be bearish [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PX09 contract fell 26 yuan to 6,860 yuan, the PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 842 dollars, the basis was 71 (+14) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 84 (-12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China was 81.1%, a 0.2% decrease; the Asian load was 73.6%, unchanged. In terms of plants, Shenghong reduced its load due to a problem with the upstream plant, the overseas plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and Tianjin Petrochemical planned to shut down. The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. In July, South Korea exported 238,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 5,000 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a 165,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PTA09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4,784 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 4,810 yuan, the basis was 2 (0) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (-6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the EG09 contract fell 11 yuan to 4,436 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4,501 yuan, the basis was 62 (+2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 0 (+6) yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side: the ethylene glycol load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease, with the synthetic gas - based load at 70.2%, a 2.9% decrease, and the ethylene - based load at 63.8%, a 0.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The expected import arrival was 157,000 tons, and the departure from East China on July 22 was 5,000 tons, with the inventory out - flow increasing. The port inventory was 533,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton decrease [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off - season in mid - August will limit its upside potential. A short - term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the upstream start - up continues to decline, and the overseas supply - side interference is gradually digested. The demand is weak overall. After the price decline, the downstream profit has slightly recovered, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short position within the sector [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase, so the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - Rubber (NR and RU) has been rising strongly, and the overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has followed the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure in the future [13]. - In the case of benzene ethylene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the short term, the geopolitical impact has subsided, and the BZN spread may be repaired [16]. - For polyethylene, the EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.32, a 0.47% decline, at $67.3; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, a 0.60% decline, at $69.23; INE main crude oil futures closed up 15.20 yuan, a 2.94% increase, at 532 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventories increased by 0.53 million barrels to 10.05 million barrels, a 5.52% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 13.13 million barrels, a 4.66% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 6.50 million barrels, a 0.49% increase; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.52 million barrels to 5.42 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.43 million barrels to 6.36 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 41.46 million barrels, a 0.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2365 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +20 [4]. - **Analysis**: The upstream start - up continues to decline, and the profit slightly drops. The overseas device start - up returns to a medium - high level. The demand is weak overall, and the downstream profit has slightly recovered after the price decline, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers starts to pick up as they enter the autumn fertilizer production stage, and exports are still ongoing. The price has support at the bottom, but the upside is restricted by high supply [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously and strongly [8]. - **Analysis**: The overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. The long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4937 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4840 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-1) [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall start - up rate of PVC has increased. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the market is expected to face pressure [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene have both increased, and the basis has weakened [16]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, and the supply of benzene ethylene has also increased. The port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [16]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has increased [18]. - **Analysis**: The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased [19]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 68 yuan to 6810 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 839 dollars. The basis was 104 yuan (-15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan (+6) [21]. - **Analysis**: The maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan to 4780 yuan, the basis was 29 yuan (+5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan (-14) [23]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 4 yuan to 4376 yuan, the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 4433 yuan, the basis was 59 yuan (-3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan (-1) [24]. - **Analysis**: The overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24].

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The cost-side oil price is expected to have room for an upward trend. The asphalt market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. In the later stage, the focus will be on the support of seasonal demand. The single-side price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate upward following the oil price [6]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2509, the opening price was 3,602 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,628 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,656 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,599 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.3%, and the trading volume was 185,700 lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3,553 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,572 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,601 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,548 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the trading volume was 38,700 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in the North China market declined slightly, while prices in other regions remained stable. The rigid demand for asphalt was weak, and the spot market maintained a cautious and wait-and-see attitude [6]. - Supply: In the East China region, Jinling Petrochemical stopped asphalt production, and Xinhai Petrochemical is expected to resume asphalt production in the late - stage after switching to producing residual oil this week. In addition, Shengxing Petrochemical in Shandong will intermittently switch to producing residual oil next week. It is expected that the average operating load rate of asphalt plants will decline next week [6]. - Demand: There will be relatively less rainfall in the northern regions later, which will support demand to some extent. The focus will be on seasonal demand support [6]. 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. Although the truck - transport price of Guangzhou Petrochemical's asphalt decreased, the refinery mainly shipped export cargoes recently, and the truck - transport resources were relatively limited. The social inventory quotes remained stable due to the high inventory cost [7]. - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3,660 - 4,070 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The strong performance of international oil prices and asphalt futures in the intraday trading boosted the spot market sentiment. Although the terminal demand for asphalt was weak, resulting in low trading volume among traders, the prices of traders and refineries remained stable [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [9][10][17][18]