沪金收盘上涨2.08%，报收800.56元/克，再次打破800大关。 散户投资者的在线民意调查结果显示，179票中68%看好上涨，17%预测下跌，16%预期整固。 8月来随着多个国家和美国达成贸易协议后对市场情绪影响减弱，且关税收入一定程度对冲通胀上升的 影响对美元资产形成支撑，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化、政府赤字压力在高利率背景下较大，且关税 带来的负面影响增加，市场避险需求仍存。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在3450 美元的前 高存在阻力需酝酿更强的突破驱动，关注美俄乌领导人会晤后对俄乌停战的推动进程和美联储主席鲍威 尔在央行年会中的表态，金价仍在 3300-3400 美元区间窄幅波动，建议在价格回调到位阶段低位通过黄 金看涨期权上构建牛市价差策略。 目前对于接下来黄金的上涨普遍偏乐观，黄金价格日内出现上涨。 来看华尔街对黄金的看法。 期货公司观点 华尔街分析师展现出空前的乐观态度，14位参与者中86%预计下周金价将继续上涨，无一人看跌，剩余 14%认为将横盘整理。 广发期货： ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with over 85% probability for a 25 basis points cut in September, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and often leads to a weaker dollar, creating a dual benefit for gold [2] - Political tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, as President Trump attempted to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, who subsequently filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to do so, potentially leading to quicker and prolonged low interest rates that could drive safe-haven investments into gold [2] - Despite a decline in initial jobless claims and a rebound in corporate profits indicating economic resilience, uncertainty continues to drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, while a buoyant market allows investors to hedge potential risks through gold, creating a new norm of simultaneous gains in both stocks and gold [2] - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. July Core PCE Price Index year-on-year, personal spending month-on-month, and the Chicago PMI for August [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a rebound after a dip, with a strong bullish trend indicated by three consecutive bullish candles, and the short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day) displaying a clear upward divergence, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [5] - Key support levels to monitor include the 5-day moving average around 3395; if this level holds, the bullish trend remains intact, while a drop below could see stronger support at the 10-day moving average around 3365 [6] - The primary resistance level is focused around 3423/3425, which is a confluence of recent highs and an upward trend line; a breakout above this level could lead to further resistance at 3439 and 3452 [7] - The four-hour chart indicates a current upward trend with an "ascending wedge" pattern, which could either continue or reverse depending on whether the price holds above the lower support line of the wedge [9]

Group 1 - Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged false statements in mortgage documents [1] - The dismissal is perceived as a direct attack on the Federal Reserve's independence and its decision not to lower interest rates, which may negatively impact the credibility of the US dollar [1] - The price of gold is expected to benefit in the long term due to the implications of Trump's actions, with the price of gold closing at 781.12 yuan per gram, up 0.28% [1] Group 2 - Following trade agreements between multiple countries and the US, market sentiment has weakened, providing some support for dollar assets despite deteriorating US economic data and significant government deficit pressures [3] - The international gold price is currently facing resistance at the previous high of 3450 USD, with ongoing market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising negative impacts from tariffs [3] - Gold prices are fluctuating within the range of 3300-3400 USD, with recommendations to construct bullish spread strategies using gold call options during price corrections [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $3336.80 per ounce, reaching a daily low of $3323.42, and later peaking at $3358.05 before closing at $3332.63, resulting in a daily range of $34.63 and a decline of $4.17, or 0.12% [3] - Market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical developments, including the positive expectations surrounding the Russia-US-Ukraine meeting and Hamas agreeing to a new ceasefire proposal, which have reduced the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the gold market's reaction to the recent meeting between Trump and Putin was minimal, indicating that gold prices are likely to remain within a certain range until the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2]

Group 1 - 80% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue consolidating in the coming week, with only 10% bullish and another 10% bearish, indicating a mixed outlook on future gold prices [1] - Retail investors show stronger optimism, with 63% of 183 participants in an online poll predicting a rise in gold prices, while 18% expect a decline and 19% foresee a consolidation [1] - The closing price of gold in Shanghai increased by 0.32%, reaching 777.66 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., which may support dollar assets and put pressure on prices [3] - The deterioration of U.S. economic data in July has raised the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while ongoing trade tensions in some countries have increased market demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, with resistance at the previous high of 3450 USD, suggesting a need for stronger momentum to break through [3] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to increase volatility in gold prices, but there remains potential for a price surge, with recommendations to construct a bull spread using call options during price pullbacks to reduce long position costs [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated a potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current rates should be lowered by 150-175 basis points [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains strong, a rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate [1] - The recent comments from U.S. officials, including former President Trump, have provided support for gold prices, with spot gold closing up 0.31% at 778.7 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., with tariff revenues potentially offsetting inflationary pressures, thus supporting dollar assets [3] - The deterioration of U.S. economic data in July has increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in September, while ongoing trade frictions continue to elevate market risk aversion [3] - The future influence of Fed officials' attitudes and U.S. inflation data on the market is expected to increase, leading to potential volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3450, indicating a need for stronger breakout drivers [4] - Despite macroeconomic news increasing gold price volatility, there remains potential for a price surge, suggesting a bullish strategy through low-cost call options during price pullbacks [4]

Group 1 - Global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of over $1 billion (approximately 15 tons) last week, with North American funds being the primary driver, while European and Asian funds experienced slight net outflows [1] - Asset management funds increased their long positions by 15,000 contracts, raising their net long position to 45.7% of total open interest, while reducing their net short positions to 11.5%, the lowest level since gold prices stabilized [1] Group 2 - On the domestic market, gold prices rose by 0.08%, closing at 777.72 yuan per gram [2] - Market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., leading to a potential support for dollar assets, while U.S. economic data deterioration has increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, heightening market risk aversion [4] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3,450, with expectations of potential upward movement if a stronger breakout occurs [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength due to the weakening US economy and rising market risk - aversion demand [1]. - Copper is also seen as having short - term strength as the domestic market atmosphere warms up and copper prices stabilize and rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: On Friday night, New York gold rose and then fell, with the main contract price dropping from around $3500 to around $3450. The price difference between New York gold and London gold once widened to $100 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US has added 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars to the tariff - imposed category, causing the New York gold market to differ from London and Shanghai. Short - term New York gold is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper - edge pressure of the range [3]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded, with a significant upward movement on Friday night [4]. - **Core Logic**: The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar index are positive for copper prices, but the risk of overseas recession trading needs to be watched. The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up, which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of copper prices. In the off - season of the industry, high upstream production, weak downstream demand, and copper inventory accumulation are negative for copper prices. Overall, macro factors are positive and industrial factors are negative, and copper prices are expected to remain strong [4]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The US labor market has been cooling since April with a risk of further weakening. Fed officials hint at approaching rate - cut timing, and Trump's political pressure has raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 90%, which is beneficial for precious metal prices. Trump's new round of tariffs on multiple countries is about to be implemented, and poor US economic data have increased market risk - aversion, supporting precious metal prices. Gold is expected to continue its strong performance, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Silver will generally follow gold but may be less resilient under the concern of a new economic recession [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: There is still a certain probability of the Fed cutting rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases will continue, and the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.2% to $3366.77/ounce, London silver spot rose 0.3% to $37.34/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.2% to $3421.00/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.3% to $37.37/ounce. In the Chinese market, AU2510 rose 0.1% to 782.5 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 0.4% to 9075 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) rose 0.2% to 778.8 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.4% to 9045 yuan/kg [3]. - The price differences and ratios also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 3.7 yuan/gram on August 5, 2025, with a - 14.4% change from August 4, 2025 [3]. Position Data - From August 1 to August 4, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.18% to 954.8 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.23% to 15021.8737 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased 9.84% to 281241 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased 2.15% to 57645 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, SHFE gold inventory rose 0.33% to 36009 kg, and SHFE silver inventory fell 1.45% to 1157291 kg. On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.20% to 38793597 ounce, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.01% to 506602109 ounce [3]. Market News and Analysis - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US originally scheduled for August 7 for six months. Trump announced a significant increase in tariffs on India due to India's "substantial" imports of Russian oil. Fed's Daly said the time for the FOMC to cut rates is approaching, and there may be more than two rate cuts [4]. - On August 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.26% to 782.5 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.82% to 9075 yuan/kg [4].