纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价23日收于每盎司4518.20美元，涨幅为 1.09%。 技术层面，2月黄金期货多头的下一个上涨目标是突破4600美元的强劲阻力价位。空头的下一个短期下 跌目标是跌破4300美元的技术支撑价位。 由于地缘政治紧张局势加剧，尤其是美国与委内瑞拉关系紧张，市场避险需求本周占据主导地位。黄 金、白银价格当日再次上涨，并再创历史新高。 3月白银期货多头的下一个上涨目标是突破75美元强劲技术阻力价位。空头的下一个下跌目标是跌破65 美元的强劲支撑价位。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格收于每盎司71.585美元，涨幅为4.4%。 美国总统特朗普警告委内瑞拉总统马杜罗不要挑战美国，并誓言要扣押从超级油轮上缴获的石油。 今年以来，黄金价格已连续50个交易日创下历史新高，黄金价格已飙升70%，有望创下自1979年以来最 大年度涨幅。白银价格今年迄今已上涨超过130%。 美国商务部23日公布的数据显示，美国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长4.3%，创两年 来最高增速，高于第二季度的3.8%和此前3.3%的预期。消费支出增长3.5%，为今年迄今为止最高增 幅。报告 ...

技术层面，2月黄金期货多头的下一个上涨目标是突破4600美元的强劲阻力价位。空头的下一个短期下 跌目标是跌破4300美元的技术支撑价位。 3月白银期货多头的下一个上涨目标是突破75美元强劲技术阻力价位。空头的下一个下跌目标是跌破65 美元的强劲支撑价位。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格收于每盎司71.585美元，涨幅为4.4%。 美国总统特朗普警告委内瑞拉总统马杜罗不要挑战美国，并誓言要扣押从超级油轮上缴获的石油。 今年以来，黄金价格已连续50个交易日创下历史新高，黄金价格已飙升70%，有望创下自1979年以来最 大年度涨幅。白银价格今年迄今已上涨超过130%。 美国商务部23日公布的数据显示，美国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长4.3%，创两年 来最高增速，高于第二季度的3.8%和此前3.3%的预期。消费支出增长3.5%，为今年迄今为止最高增 幅。报告符合货币政策鹰派的观点，不希望美国进一步降息。 然而，美国商务部当日公布的美国耐用品新订单报告则令人失望，10月份环比下降2.2%至3074亿美 元，远低于9月份向上修正后的0.7%的增幅。这一降幅也超过了市场预期的1.5%。 新华财经纽约12月23日 ...

基本面方面，国内电解铝供应端未出现明显扰动。当前，电解铝新建产能的产量释放仍需时日，12月份 整体产量增长受限。需求方面，由于今年春节相对较晚，再加上新能源需求展现出较强韧性，整体消费 状况尚可，电解铝社会库存亦尚未完全进入累积阶段，且库存水平仍处于低位，这为铝价提供了一定支 撑。但下游开工下滑，元旦临近，高铝价也在一定程度上抑制了下游的采购意愿，下游入市买货的积极 性低迷，现货贴水幅度持续扩大，削弱了持货商的挺价信心。 因此，短期来看，消费或将走弱，预计今日现货铝价将呈下跌态势。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 【铝期货市场】：中东局势爆燃激化避险担忧，隔夜伦铝震荡下挫，最新收盘报价2941美元/吨，收跌 15美元，跌幅0.49%，成交量15068手减少6526手，持仓量680116手减少3218手。晚间沪铝弱势震荡， 主力月2602合约最新收盘价报22135元/吨，跌105元，跌幅0.47%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月20日伦铝最新库存量报519600公吨，较上个交易日持平。 长江铝业网讯：12月22日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭 ...

12月15日，沪金期货价格强势上涨，截至发稿主力合约报982.16元/克，涨幅1.82%。 渣打银行：预计黄金价格将于2026年再创新高，预计2026年黄金均价4,488美元/盎司，2026年第四季度均价为4,750美元/盎司。 光大期货：美联储为呵护金融市场流动性购买短债的动作以及缩表结束扩表预期成为推动金价再次走强的诱因，但结合对美联储1月降息预判以 及近期地缘政治走向，黄金推涨动力也并不强劲，整体来看或依然维系区间震荡内走势。 【消息面汇总】 金瑞期货：在降息周期已确认、市场流动性宽松的背景下，黄金的中期"定价锚"更偏向实际利率下行与避险需求抬升。从边际变化看，美联储降 息节奏与市场定价之间仍存在分歧，若后续数据使市场重新接受"降息放缓甚至暂停"，那么金价就容易出现深度回调。整体来看，明年美联储货 币政策有望继续保持宽松，且央行购金行为将继续，黄金中长期仍有较好的上涨前景。 力拓白银公司完成对秘鲁中部玛丽亚诺尔特金银铅锌矿产项目的收购。 机构观点 消息人士：马里法官已将3吨被扣押黄金归还巴里克矿业。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：上周金价呈现上行态势，纽约金由周初的 4200 美元，拉升至周末的 4300 美元。上周最 核心的驱动因素是美联储 12 月议息会议。会议决定降息 25 基点，此外美联储宣布将重启资产负债 表扩张，共同打压美元并提振黄金。整体美联储表现偏鸽，短期市场风险偏好与流动性均明显回升， 资产普涨。周五夜盘，宏观氛围急转直下，海外股市和商品普跌，金价也呈现冲高回落态势，短期流 动性下降明显。短期市场在美联储议息会议后先涨后跌，已充分消化议息会议带来的影响，多空博弈 明显加剧，市场避险需求在短期快速上升，这也是为什么金价上周呈现明显的上行趋势且周五收盘仍 处于周内的高位。短期纽约金突破 4300 美元，上行动能较强，可持续关注 4300 美元关口支撑。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数连续九个月萎缩 •特朗普：已经敲定下一任美联储主席人选 •加密货币价格大幅下跌 •瑞典智库：2024年美国军工企业收入占全球百强近一半 •日本两年期国债收益率升至2008年以来最高水平 •受市场整体避险需求回升等因素影响，加密货币价格12月1日显著下跌。美国加密货币交易平台"比特 币基地"数据显示，截至美东时间12月1日8时50分，比特币价格在过去24小时下跌6.57%，跌至8.57万美 元。美联储观察顾问公司创始人兼首席投资官本·埃蒙斯表示，近期比特币抛售行情持续造成市场紧张 情绪，预计将会出现更多的清盘。 •瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所1日发布报告说，2024年全球百强武器制造和军事服务公司总收入为 6790亿美元，其中美国公司收入3340亿美元，占到总额的近一半。去年，全球武器制造和军事服务公司 收入达到斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所有记录以来的最高水平，这主要源于俄乌冲突、巴以冲突、全球和 地区地缘政治紧张加剧以及各国军费开支持续走高。 •德国总理默茨1日与到访的波兰总理图斯克共同会见记者时说，就乌克兰危机，欧洲国家面临"重要的 几天和几周"， ...

银2602合约关注区间：11700-12500元/千克。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 达成实质性停火的难度较大，若后续停火方案取得实质性进展，或阶段性削弱市场避险需求。短期而言， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 贵金属市场缺乏明确的利多因素，美联储降息预期或继续反复，金价或以区间震荡运行为主。中长期而言 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 ，美国债务压力持续加剧，投资者对美元信心趋于转弱，黄金作为美元信用对冲的首选资产仍具备吸引力 免责声明 ，叠加央行逢低购金持续介入，对长期金价形成结构性支撑。沪金2602合约关注区间：920-960元/克；沪 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 贵金属产业日报 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated more sharply during the session, while silver prices continued a strong rebound. The employment market's downward risk has significantly increased, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, slightly higher than before [3]. - The U.S. Senate passed the temporary appropriation bill, which eases concerns about short - term market liquidity shortages but implies an increase in U.S. government debt, which is positive for gold prices. Looking ahead, the market is pricing in weak employment data and moderate inflation expectations in advance, and the weakening dollar may boost precious metals. The escalating Middle East geopolitical situation provides safe - haven support, while the optimistic expectation of the U.S. government reopening may weaken safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, in the long - term, the increasing U.S. debt risk is in line with the long - term bullish logic for gold [3]. - Technically, the daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The key resistance level for London gold is between $4150 - $4200, and the strong support is at $4000. The focus range for the SHFE gold 2512 contract is 900 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2512 contract is 11500 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract was 945.76 yuan/gram, down 3.12 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract was 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 193 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of SHFE gold were 124540 lots, down 5806 lots; those of SHFE silver were 235542 lots, up 1957 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the SHFE gold main contract were 107081 lots, down 3280 lots; those of SHFE silver were 128005 lots, up 8146 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 583060 kilograms, down 8824 kilograms [3]. 现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The SMM gold spot price was 943.9 yuan/gram, down 6.4 yuan; the SMM silver spot price was 11991 yuan/kilogram, up 88 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the SHFE gold main contract was - 1.86 yuan/gram, down 3.28 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract was - 82 yuan/kilogram, down 105 yuan [3]. Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15088.63 tons, unchanged [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 30.92%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.03%, up 0.08% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 24.6%, up 2.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 24.61%, up 2.65% [3]. Industry News - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday [3]. - The U.S. "small non - farm" data warned again. From the four - week period ending on October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45000 jobs last month (excluding government employees), which is the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023 [3]. - The optimism of U.S. small businesses dropped to a six - month low. The NFIB data showed that due to deteriorating profits, the optimism index of U.S. small businesses in October dropped 0.6 points to 98.2 [3].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 87,816 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1][2] - On November 3, gold futures opened at 924.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 927.28 CNY and a low of 911.18 CNY, closing at 922.58 CNY with a 0.47% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day was 341,261 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 5,518 contracts to 151,373 contracts [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October has positively impacted the market, alongside progress in US-China trade negotiations, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion [2] - The US has decided to cancel the 10% tariff on Chinese goods, while the 24% retaliatory tariff will remain suspended for another year, with China adjusting its countermeasures accordingly [2] - Both parties have agreed to extend certain tariff exclusion measures, indicating ongoing negotiations in the trade relationship [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices have experienced a rapid decline, with gold dropping by 2.88% and silver by 4.37% as of October 17, 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $4,239.84 per ounce, while spot silver is at $51.895 per ounce [2]. - Year-to-date, international gold prices have surged approximately 60% [5]. Group 2: Risk Warnings - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a warning regarding the recent volatility in international precious metal prices, urging members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [5]. - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have also advised investors to rationally manage their precious metal investments in light of increased market risks [7]. Group 3: Market Drivers - Analysts attribute the recent surge in gold prices to factors such as the excessive issuance of the US dollar, which has led to a decline in the credibility of US Treasury bonds, and the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration, increasing market demand for safe-haven assets [9]. - Concerns over US-China trade relations and the potential for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve are also driving up gold prices, as these factors contribute to a weakening dollar [10].