Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is facing a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market is also under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and its price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,770 yuan/ton and closed at 120,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,113 (- 10,149) lots, and the open interest was 107,897 (- 1,789) lots. The main contract showed a volatile downward trend. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and Powell's cautious statement on the December rate cut led to a short - term rebound of the US dollar, pressuring commodities, and Shanghai nickel closed slightly lower in the late session [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The mine side still has a strong attitude of holding prices, and the overall nickel ore price remains firm. The CIF tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from Indonesia's purchases in the Philippines was 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from the northern Philippine mine LNL was 43.5, unchanged month - on - month. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, and the shipping is coming to an end; the northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel iron is under pressure, and iron plants are not willing to accept the high price of raw material nickel ore. The domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia in November (phase one) is expected to fall by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was dull, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,532 (99) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,640 (- 66) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The nickel market has high inventory and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,805 yuan/ton and closed at 12,725 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,051 (+ 11,210) lots, and the open interest was 89,093 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, the main contract showed a volatile weakening trend. Overseas, the rebound of the US dollar pressured commodities; domestically, although the adjustment of real - estate policies released certain positive signals, the demand transmission of stainless steel in the real - estate field was lagging, and it was difficult to boost market confidence in the short term [3]. - **Spot**: The price was basically stable, and trading was still difficult. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 100) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 924.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, stainless steel will still face the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless steel market, with weak downstream demand recovery, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 121,180 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 73,851 (+13,460) lots, and the open interest was 121,311 (+5,022) lots. The main contract changed to 2512, showing an oscillating and declining pattern. Fed officials' hawkish signals strengthened the expectation of a continuous high - interest - rate environment, and the stronger US dollar index pressured LME nickel [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: A 1.4% nickel ore tender in the northern Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at FOB 43. There is a price difference between domestic supply and demand, and domestic factories are mostly on the sidelines. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is approaching, and northern mines are mostly tendering for shipments. Iron plants are under cost pressure and have a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories are actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,953 (-73) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,878 (+402) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2512 opened at 12,660 yuan/ton and closed at 12,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 99,210 (-26,868) lots, and the open interest was 179,530 (-4,171) lots. The contract followed the upward trend of the black sector, showing an oscillating and rising pattern. Stimulated by the decline in inventory in the afternoon, the price quickly rose to an intraday high of 12,730 yuan/ton but fell back slightly after failing to break through 12,750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Due to the continuous upward exploration of futures prices in the past two days, downstream inquiries increased slightly, but actual trading was light, and market quotes remained low. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 310 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 935.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3] - With increasing production schedules and slower - than - expected demand recovery, stainless steel prices are forecasted to stay in a weak oscillation, but recent policy guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the results of China - US trade talks need to be observed [5] Market Analysis of Nickel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 120,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 68,844 (- 7,491) lots, and the open interest was 58,658 (- 1,803) lots [1] Influence of Macro Data - China's macro data for the first three quarters showed that the GDP in Q3 was 3.545 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% (previous value: 5.2%), and other data indicated a situation of "strong supply and weak demand", causing Shanghai nickel prices to oscillate weakly [1] Nickel Ore Situation - The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The Eramen mine in the Philippines launched a new tender. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area decreased, while northern mines started to load and ship. Downstream iron plants, with reduced profits, were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remained abundant. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with a premium range of + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season, Indonesian factories had low enthusiasm for raw material procurement despite production pressure [1] Spot Market - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,868 (- 174) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (- 54) tons [2] Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,595 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,780 (+ 7,866) lots, and the open interest was 198,194 (- 4,171) lots [3] Influence of Macro Data - The real estate investment growth rate widened by 1 percentage point to - 13.9%, and the overall industry was still at the bottom - building stage. The recovery of stainless steel demand remained a long - term task [3] Spot Market - The market trading continued the light situation of the previous week, and prices remained basically stable. Under the pressure of sales, there were occasional lower quotes. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 390 - 690 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Neutral - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, creating a strong bullish momentum [2] - Gold prices have effectively broken through the $4200 level, indicating a dominant bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought territory (>80), suggesting a potential short-term technical pullback [2] - Key support levels to watch are $4200-$4195, with further support at $4180-$4172 if the first level fails [2] - The upward target is set at $4250, with a potential move towards $4300 if this level is surpassed [2] - The overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices hold above the $4180 support level, amidst a weak dollar and high global uncertainty [2] Group 2: Trading Strategy for Gold - The trading strategy focuses on a bullish layout, recommending to enter long positions when prices pull back to the $4218-$4115 range [4] - The $4200 level is identified as a critical defense line for both long and short positions; a break below this level suggests exiting the market [4] - The primary focus is on the breakout of the $4250 level, as the market remains in an upward trend [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently facing mixed factors, with short-term supply abundance putting pressure on prices, while declining Russian oil exports and cautious OPEC+ production increases may provide some support [5] - The technical outlook for WTI crude oil shows a clear bearish structure, with prices operating within a descending channel and moving averages indicating a bearish trend [5] - Key price levels to monitor include a potential drop below $58, which would lead to further support at $56.20, while a stabilization and breakout above $60 could signal a short-term rebound [5] - The current market is constrained by "oversupply" and "high inventory" pressures [5] Group 4: Demand Recovery and OPEC+ Monitoring - Short-term observations should focus on the demand recovery pace in Asian countries and the U.S.; continued weakness in demand may keep oil prices under pressure [7] - Mid-term trends will depend on OPEC+ meetings and whether stronger supply adjustment measures will be implemented, which could be a key variable in changing the current trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - The nickel market has an oversupply situation, with high inventories. The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For trading strategies, a range - based operation is recommended for single - side trading, while no specific strategies are proposed for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1][3]. - The stainless steel market is facing inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand. The stainless steel price is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and no strategies are given for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,084 (- 38,918) lots, and the open interest was 73,107 (- 1,593) lots. The oversupply pattern persists, and concerns about the escalation of China - US tariff friction have intensified. The LME inventory continues to increase, suppressing the nickel price. The trading volume and open interest both decreased, indicating reduced market trading activity and capital participation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and the price remains stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF 44, with no transactions concluded. In the Philippines, the bidding result of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in Zambales has not been released. The downstream nickel - iron price has declined, squeezing the profit of iron plants, leading to cautious procurement of nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories have started stockpiling raw materials for winter. The supply in the Indonesian market remains loose, and the October (second phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to increase by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai market sales price of Jinchuan Group is 123,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The decline in refined nickel prices has increased downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the intraday trading volume is fair. The premiums of various brands are mainly stable. The Jinchuan nickel premium remains unchanged at 2,400 yuan/ton, the imported nickel premium increases by 25 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the nickel bean premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,027 (- 245) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 (+ 1,164) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Mainly use range - based operations [3]. - **Cross - period**: None [3]. - **Cross - variety**: None [3]. - **Spot - futures**: None [3]. - **Options**: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,565 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,756 (- 59,233) lots, and the open interest was 190,251 (- 4,171) lots. It shows a similar trend to Shanghai nickel, continuing the low - level oscillation pattern and reaching a low of 12,050 yuan/ton, close to the three - month low [3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism has intensified, and spot prices have decreased, but trading remains sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (- 150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,000 (- 100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium ranges from 455 to 755 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Neutral [5]. - **Cross - period**: None [5]. - **Cross - variety**: None [5]. - **Spot - futures**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the impact of macro - events has basically subsided, nickel prices have returned to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged oversupply pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel variety, with eleven consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, the downside space for stainless - steel prices is limited. However, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, and it is expected to show an interval oscillation trend [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 66,099 (+3,446) lots, and the open interest was 45,068 (-5,353) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated slightly around the previous trading day's settlement price. After the day - session opening, stimulated by the news of continued national subsidies over the weekend, it rose slightly to the daily high of 122,110 yuan/ton but then quickly declined, and finally closed with a slight increase of 80 yuan [1] - **Nickel Ore**: A new round of quotations in the nickel ore market has been released. The FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine is 31. Affected by typhoon weather, nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas is blocked. Philippine mines maintain firm quotations. In the shipping aspect, mines in areas like Surigao are not affected. Downstream iron plants are still making losses and maintain a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market remains in a pattern of continuous supply surplus. The domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is currently at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed. The spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of various brands are slightly adjusted stably, and some delivery brands show a slight discount. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,536 (-307) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,900 (+456) tons [2] Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,615 (+21,690) lots, and the open interest was 130,017 (-4,171) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated upward. In the day - session, it further rose close to 13,000 yuan/ton and then slightly declined. The closing price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. Overall, the restart of national subsidies in China has improved the demand expectation for stainless steel, resulting in a relatively strong price trend today [3] - **Spot**: It is currently the traditional consumption peak season, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel has slightly recovered. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand is not obvious, and the monthly stainless - steel production has also increased simultaneously, resulting in the spot price not showing an obvious upward trend. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the market is filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 340 to 640 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

1. Core View on Urea - On June 20, 2025, the urea price plummeted due to multiple factors [3] - The domestic urea production capacity has been continuously expanding, with an expected new capacity (including replacement) of 6.6 million tons/year in 2025. The total production capacity may exceed 75 million tons/year by the end of the year, with a stable daily output of over 200,000 tons and an operating rate of around 87% [4] - The demand is weak. In agriculture, during the summer top - dressing season, grass - roots procurement is cautious, and the procurement volume is only 70% of previous years. Industrial demand is also poor, with the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises dropping significantly to around 37% [4] - As of June 11, the national urea enterprise inventory reached 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 13.7%. Urea exports are strictly controlled, and the port - gathering speed is slow, with an export expectation of less than 2 million tons this year, which is difficult to relieve the domestic inventory pressure [5] - The decline in raw material coal prices weakens the cost support, and the production costs of coal - based and gas - based enterprises have decreased simultaneously, giving enterprises more room to cut prices [5] 2. Technical Analysis of Different Futures 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Rumors that Trump will decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks have led to a decline in international oil prices. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week [8] 2.2 Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains unchanged, and it is only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] 2.3 Iron Ore - The supply has increased month - on - month, the pig iron output has weakened seasonally, and the ports have returned to inventory accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, pay attention to the important support below and view it with a fluctuating perspective [15][16] 2.4 Glass - The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, the factory inventory is still at a high level, the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and a fluctuating view is adopted [19][20] 2.5 Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle East situation, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be fluctuating or slightly stronger. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in the period of medium - term seasonal production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and take short positions with a light position [21]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18% and the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index fell by 0.92% during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Open Source Securities recommends a combination of Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and Ximai Food, highlighting that Shanxi Fenjiu faces short-term demand pressure but has strong mid-term growth potential [2] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing its dividend payout ratio, indicating a long-term positive outlook [2] - Ximai Food is expected to improve profitability due to stable growth in its oat business and better raw material costs [2] Industry Recommendations - Zheshang Securities suggests focusing on leading liquor companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Kweichow Moutai, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Yingjia Gongjiu [3] - Recommendations for consumer goods include companies that focus on cost control and new consumption trends, such as Ximai Food and Weifang Zhai [4] Macro Events - Japan's rice prices surged by 98.4% year-on-year in April, marking the highest increase since 1971, with the average price of 5 kg of rice reaching 4268 yen [5] - In Sudan, food prices increased by 124% year-on-year in April, with significant rises in wheat and goat prices, exacerbated by currency devaluation [7] Company News - The white wine industry in Renhuai showed strong growth in the first quarter, with significant improvements in production capacity and quality [8] - Huaren Beer faced challenges with a 0.76% decline in revenue and an 8.03% drop in net profit, attributed to market contraction and extreme weather [14] - Gujing Gongjiu was involved in a legal case concerning a 166,000 yuan execution notice, raising concerns about compliance management [12] Price Trends - High-end liquor prices have seen a significant decline, with key products like Wuliangye and Moutai dropping below 1000 yuan, reflecting a market correction [10] - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with a shift from capital-driven to consumer-driven dynamics [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current absolute price of industrial silicon has reached a historical low, but due to weak end - market demand and high inventory, the industrial silicon market will remain weak in the short term [2]. 3. Key Points from Different Aspects Market Price - This week, the industrial silicon market showed a downward trend in both spot and futures prices. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon is 9,500 - 9,900 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 10,200 - 10,600 yuan/ton. On Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8,780 yuan, down 0.85%, with an increase of 10,449 lots in positions, the current open interest was 193,100 lots, and the trading volume was 8.356 billion yuan [1]. Supply - In the supply side, small factories in the north have increased their production cut - back efforts, mostly with 12,500KVA furnaces. However, the gradual start - up in the south has offset some of the production reduction, resulting in limited week - on - week fluctuations in weekly supply. The start - up in the southern production areas is slowly recovering, but some small and medium - sized manufacturers still lack confidence in resuming production and are mostly in a wait - and - see mode. In the short term, the supply is still concentrated in the north. A large northern factory plans to conduct maintenance soon, and the production cut situation is unclear. Despite the current low - level start - up, there is still an expectation of increased national production during the wet season [1]. Demand - For the downstream polysilicon plants, the powder single - tender prices released this week decreased by about 500 - 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The supply of silicon material enterprises decreased slightly this week, but with the decline in terminal installation demand, the prices of components and cells dropped rapidly, and market expectations weakened significantly. The price of organic silicon DMC showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the mainstream opening price at 11,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The growth rate of new capacity of organic silicon monomers has slowed down significantly, and monomer plants have taken turns to cut production. The aluminum alloy ingot price is weak, and the spot market shows weak supply and demand, with low trading volume [1]. Inventory - On April 25, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 69,502 lots, a decrease of 859 lots in a single week, but the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a high level [1].