Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in international gold prices has raised significant market concerns, with prices dropping sharply, indicating potential further declines [1][3] Price Movement - On May 14, the London spot gold price fell by 2.1% to $3186 per ounce, continuing to decline on May 15, with expectations of breaking below the $3100 mark [1] - From May 7 to May 14, the cumulative decline in international gold prices reached 6.72%, prompting deep reflections within the precious metals market [3] Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that gold typically maintains an annual volatility of around 15%, contrasting sharply with the stock market's daily fluctuations of around 10% [4] - The recent adjustment in gold prices is linked to structural changes in the market environment, including a stabilization of geopolitical conflicts and a shift in macroeconomic policies [9] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Gold prices are significantly correlated with geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, with recent global events such as trade tensions and military conflicts driving up demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][7] - The recent easing of tensions in conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine situation and the India-Pakistan border has reduced the demand for gold, as the attractiveness of dollar assets has increased [9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term asset allocation strategy for gold, distinguishing its role from risk assets like stocks, focusing on its inflation-hedging and crisis-mitigation properties [11] - The speculative nature of recent investments in gold, driven by short-term price movements, poses risks, as true value in gold investment is realized over a longer horizon of three to ten years [11] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, fundamental factors supporting a long-term bullish outlook remain intact, including ongoing geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainties in U.S. trade policies [13][15] - The potential for a shift in the monetary policy cycle, with the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike period, could provide significant support for gold prices in the future [13]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.08% [1] - Chinese assets are witnessing a substantial surge, particularly in the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Healthcare Index, indicating a broader market recovery [3] - The A-share market is perceived to lag behind Hong Kong stocks, especially in sectors like technology, which are predominantly represented in the Hong Kong market [3] Group 2 - A-share market is expected to restart a bull market after a seven-month consolidation, with a belief that the market will rise significantly, particularly in the second half of the year [5] - The market is currently at a pivotal point, with a potential for a rally if key sectors such as liquor, securities, and real estate see significant gains [5] - There is an expectation that funds will return to the equity market, prioritizing Hong Kong stocks before A-shares catch up [5] Group 3 - The sentiment in the market is heavily influenced by emotions, with smaller investors often engaging in speculative behavior, which can lead to poor decision-making [7] - Investors are advised to maintain patience and focus on long-term strategies rather than reacting impulsively to market fluctuations [7]

但目前有的房产可能有了一定的投资价值，这个我也不知道； 我的错误观念是长期持股待涨， 没有什么持股待涨这个事情；这是投机思维。 投机和投资有着本质的区别， 如果不从内心认可，和分辨出这种区别，这辈子也做不好投资。 比如，最近指数股票下跌，如果是投资类的股票下跌，是个非常好的买入时机， 但投机者是预 测股价波动，所以认为未来还要跌，那他就会割掉，出现一个好价格。 然后投资者逆势买入，这里谁是长期胜出者，显而易见。 比如房地产崩盘，是长期投机的果，价 格已经超出普通人收入的极限了； 投机和投资没个10多年真的分不清，就一个字，需要多少磨练才分的开。 巴菲特很小就懂了，我已经40多了， 投资短期内不一定比投机赚钱，还会浮亏，但还是要分开 来，这个非常重要。 今年收益-4.59%，如果是以前我会沮丧，难过，反思，为什么做了4个月，还是负的？ 现在是关注自己买了什么，持有什么资产，持有了多少股份，什么价格买入的，这些手里的 东西到底有没有价值，未来产出多少，未来如何再次布局 比如前几年热门行业，股价涨了3年翻了2倍，按照以前我只看价格的投机思维肯定不会买， 现在我会看下这个资产未来的产出，然后分批分时买入配置，股价涨跌 ...

Group 1 - The core distinction between speculation and investment is crucial for successful investing, as investors buy undervalued assets while speculators react to price fluctuations [1][2] - Current market conditions, such as a decline in index stocks, present good buying opportunities for investors who focus on asset value rather than price movements [1][3] - The mindset of holding stocks for long-term appreciation is often a speculative approach; true investment requires understanding the underlying value and future potential of assets [1][3] Group 2 - Many individuals struggle to differentiate between speculation and investment, often leading to confusion and misjudgment in their financial strategies [2][5] - The performance of investments can vary, and focusing on the quality and future yield of assets is more important than short-term price changes [3][4] - The perception of success in investing is often tied to financial outcomes, where profits are seen as investments and losses as speculation [6][9] Group 3 - Investment strategies should be based on earning from company performance (dividends, capital appreciation) rather than merely profiting from market fluctuations [11] - The concept of arbitrage exists in a gray area between speculation and investment, as it involves exploiting price differences without necessarily relying on market predictions [11][14] - Effective trading can involve both investment and speculation, depending on the investor's strategy and market conditions [13][15]

所以我现在在a股更偏向于套利者的身份，投机已经完全不参与了，价值投资也是得过且过，我现在每 年主要就靠期指贴水在a股混个低保，要是来了行情逢高一出，算下来期望年化10-12%，性价比还可 以。 后台很多人问过我期指的事，我以前有过科普视频，本来是个小众金融工具，可能因为我的推介多拉了 几万人。但我后来也意识到了不妥之处，不是所有人都能像我这样有纪律性，经常会有一些人滚着滚 着，突然遇到剧烈波动的行情就忍不住情绪上头，加仓投机，最后给自己输到泥潭里去。 核心关键在于你是怎么看待a股的，我总结了三大特征：很好玩、浪费时间、不挣钱，只要你理解了， 就能心平气和的看待a股。 nba三分球比赛有个规则，某一个位置可以连投5球，前面4个是普通篮球，最后一个是彩球，普通球进 了算1分，最后那个彩球进了算2分。 写到这你们肯定知道我想暗示什么，周五下跌是真的坏， 跌一 天算三天。 有些财务比较宽松的人，也不图在a股暴富，随缘理财，输赢不论，就图个好玩，他就能在a股十几年如 一日的获得快乐。有些人入市就是为了快速实现财务自由，进场就是钻营各类投机，这条路上有少数人 能笑到最后，但大多数都成了路两边的肥料。 前面横盘震荡一个月， ...

a股里真的是有一批坏种，2024年最后一天都不给人好好过，今天才1.34万亿的量也能砸成这鸟样，中位数下跌2.52%，又搞的市场愁云惨雾的。 本来前几天市场已经差不多五五开，今天这一跌把很多今年收益在岸边缘的股民又踹下水，截止12月31日收盘，今年累计上涨的股票2203个，占比 40.9%，全市场中位数下跌5.52%，前几天我估计赚钱的股民大概有55%左右，今天跌完肯定不到50%了。 a股唯一从来不让人失望的事情，就是让人失望。 通常到了年底就是各类投资总结，坦率讲我今年还行，我前几天不是贴过一个大类资产收益表吗，表上前三的我都有持仓，尤其前两个我的仓位还不低。 倒也不是我多有前瞻性，美股和区块链我玩了都差不多有10年了，一开始放进去的钱没那么多，涨着涨着就变多了。 | TOP2 | TOP1 | | TOP3 | TOP4 | TOP5 | TOP6 | TOP7 | 1068 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2024 BTC | 美股 | | AHG | 国债 | 汇率 | 原油 | 房价 | | 29.4% ...

无趣的时代可能反而是好的时代，虽然没有太多的杀戮征伐，但也有属于自己的冒险故事。 特约作者｜Value Gamer 编辑丨宋玮 中国资本市场波澜壮阔的捕鲸时代已经结束了，对投资者来说，未来将是一个略显 "无趣" 的陆地耕种时代。已经习惯在喧嚣巨浪中捕鲸的冒险家，可能无法 立刻适应略显安静的陆地，但无趣的事物中往往隐藏着有趣的本质。 一. 伯克希尔·哈撒韦的历史 伯克希尔·哈撒韦的历史可以上溯到北美洲的捕鲸行业。 事实上，捕鲸业是 19 世纪美国的核心产业之一，直到世纪后期才逐渐被纺织业所替代。伯克希尔·哈撒韦的总部所在地新贝德福德，曾经像新英格兰地区王冠 上的钻石那样闪闪发光。曾几何时，那些从它的港湾出发去捕杀抹香鲸的渔船使它成为北美洲最富裕的城市。到 1854 年，每年捕鲸的产生收入 1200 万美 元，这让新贝德福德成为在南北战争之前美国人均收入最高的城市。在后世实控伯克希尔·哈撒韦的斯坦顿家族的祖先，就曾是新贝德福德捕鲸业的一个首 领。 作为一个在 16 世纪才兴起的商业化产业，捕鲸业的投资模式与我们今天所熟悉的风险投资行业很接近，甚至连收益分配方式也很相似（风险投资行业的 carry 机制就来源于捕鲸 ...