Core Viewpoint - Guohai Liangshi Asset Management has achieved outstanding performance, winning the top positions in both "stock strategy" and "multi-asset strategy" for the first half of the year, indicating its unique strengths and capabilities in the asset management industry [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Guohai Liangshi Futures was established in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. It is controlled by Guohai Securities and has a significant stake from Zhejiang Grain Group. The company obtained asset management qualifications in 2014 and has developed a distinctive path in asset management focused on large asset allocation and futures derivatives investment [7][8]. - The company emphasizes wealth management as one of its two strategic focuses, aiming to enhance its core competitiveness through innovative asset management practices [7]. Group 2: Team and Expertise - The asset management team is highly stable and consists of professionals with extensive experience across research, investment, marketing, and private equity. Key members have over ten years of experience in the industry [8]. - The team is well-educated, with members graduating from prestigious institutions such as Harbin Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, and New York University [8]. Group 3: Unique Strategic Framework - Guohai Liangshi employs a distinctive "321" strategic framework, which sets it apart in the asset management industry. This framework emphasizes three unique advantages of futures companies, two differentiated features, and one core value proposition [9][10]. - The three advantages include a top-down research logic, a cross-asset allocation perspective, and deep expertise in futures and derivatives [10]. Group 4: Investment System - The investment system is built on three pillars: allocation, timing, and hedging, which work together to safeguard investment portfolios [11]. - Allocation focuses on optimizing the overall risk-return profile by selecting assets with different return sources and volatility characteristics [12]. - Timing aims to enhance return potential by dynamically adjusting asset weights based on market conditions [13]. - Hedging employs various tools to manage downside risks and smooth out return curves [14]. Group 5: Core Investment Philosophies - The company has distilled three core investment philosophies based on behavioral finance and long-term practice: embracing uncertainty, understanding asymmetrical profit-loss ratios, and tail protection [15][16][17]. - These philosophies guide the company in constructing resilient portfolios that can adapt to various market environments while minimizing critical errors [18]. Group 6: Asset Strategy - Guohai Liangshi's multi-asset strategy focuses on large asset allocation and leverages futures derivatives to enhance returns while managing risks [19]. - The strategy encompasses equities, bonds, and commodities, with a focus on factor-based equity positions and derivatives trading [20]. Group 7: Commitment to Investor Experience - The company is dedicated to creating a positive investment experience for its clients by implementing its "allocation, timing, hedging" investment system and utilizing futures tools to empower large asset allocation [21].

Group 1 - The market has shown a continued upward trend, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.69%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.67%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.28% over the past week [3] - The steel sector has been highlighted as a leading performer, with a weekly increase and a cumulative excess return of over 11% since July [3][5] - The recent infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, have sparked positive expectations regarding the economic cycle, reminiscent of the 2008 stimulus measures [4][5] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a shift from institutional investment to retail trading, leading to increased volatility in the short term [5] - The recommendation is to maintain a high position in both the main board and small-cap sectors, while being prepared for potential adjustments in the future [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that the core driving variable for A-shares remains the liquidity situation, rather than just fundamental improvements [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around investment strategies, particularly focusing on market timing (择时) and stock selection (择券) within the investment banking sector. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Unpredictability**: The market is often unpredictable, and it is emphasized that investors should avoid guessing market movements. The speaker suggests that most of the time, the market behaves randomly, with a 50/50 chance of gains or losses [1][2][3]. 2. **Importance of Signal Points**: There are specific times in the year where clear signals can be identified, which differ from the usual random market behavior. These signal points are crucial for making decisive investment decisions [2][4]. 3. **Current Market Indicators**: The current market indicators are described as being around 0.35, which is considered neither high nor low. This indicates a neutral market environment where significant movements are not expected [3][4]. 4. **Communication with Clients**: The speaker stresses the importance of clear communication with clients, especially in a market that is not showing clear trends. Investors should express their strategies and the reasoning behind them effectively [5][6]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: The speaker suggests that during neutral market phases, investors should focus on stock selection strategies rather than making aggressive moves. It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio and adjust positions based on market conditions [7][8]. 6. **Performance Metrics**: The speaker mentions that their investment strategy has yielded a 64.7% success rate compared to the market's 74.7%. This highlights the importance of not overestimating one's ability to predict market movements [9][10]. 7. **Risk Management**: Emphasis is placed on the need for a clear risk management strategy, particularly for high-priced stocks. Investors should establish stop-loss levels to mitigate potential losses [12][13]. 8. **Diversification**: The speaker advocates for diversification across different technical patterns and sectors to reduce risk. This includes balancing between cyclical and technology stocks [15][16]. 9. **Mindset and Randomness**: Acknowledgment of the inherent randomness in the market is crucial. Investors should maintain a healthy mindset and not become overly stressed by market fluctuations [17]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion touches on the psychological aspects of investing, where investors may struggle with accepting uncertain market conditions. The speaker encourages a focus on strategy rather than emotional responses to market changes [5][17]. - The need for a structured approach to changing investment strategies is highlighted, suggesting that frequent adjustments may not be beneficial for larger funds [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current investment landscape and strategies.

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of asset allocation in investment decisions, suggesting that approximately 90% of investment returns come from successful asset allocation rather than individual stock selection or timing the market [1][3]. - The article highlights that the market is unpredictable, and there are no permanently profitable assets or effective investment strategies, reinforcing the notion that proper asset allocation can help navigate through different market cycles [3][4]. - Asset allocation is defined as the process of distributing investment funds across various asset classes based on individual investment goals, risk tolerance, investment horizon, and market conditions, rather than merely diversifying investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that asset allocation is a personal expression of one's understanding of the world, risk perception, and life goals, rather than merely a numerical game [2][4][5]. Group 1: Investment Tools and Strategies - Investors can utilize three main investment tools: asset allocation, stock selection, and market timing, with asset allocation accounting for over 90% of the volatility in institutional portfolio returns [2]. - Different investment strategies reflect individual preferences and risk tolerance, leading to diverse asset allocation choices among investors [3][4]. Group 2: Personalization of Investment Portfolios - Investment portfolios serve as a reflection of an individual's values and future aspirations, with choices influenced by personal experiences and environmental factors [3][5]. - The article highlights that there is no absolute right or wrong in investment choices, as they are based on different cognitive frameworks and risk perceptions [4]. Group 3: The Role of External Opinions - Investors often face pressure from external opinions, which can lead to unnecessary adjustments in their portfolios; successful investing relies on deep insights and steadfast beliefs rather than frequent trading [3]. - The article suggests that maintaining a clear understanding of one's investment philosophy can reduce the impact of external criticism [5]. Group 4: The Snowball Three-Factor Method - The Snowball Three-Factor Method promotes long-term investment through diversification across assets, markets, and timing, aiming for diversified sources of returns and risk mitigation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of flexible allocation funds, particularly highlighting the success of the Yimin Service Leading fund in navigating market volatility through strategic position management, which resulted in significant excess returns during turbulent market conditions [1][4][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Strategy - On April 7, during a significant market downturn where over 2900 stocks hit their daily limit down, many active equity products fell over 10%, but the Yimin Service Leading fund maintained a net value change of 0, successfully avoiding losses [4]. - The fund's stock position was only 0.89% at the end of the previous year, but it increased its position to nearly 20% during the first quarter as market conditions improved, demonstrating effective timing and position management [4][6]. - The fund's net value remained stable with minimal fluctuations from June 2023 to the end of the year, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions, with a focus on bank deposits and bond funds [4][7]. Group 2: Flexibility and Market Sensitivity - The flexible allocation nature of the Yimin Service Leading fund allows for significant adjustments in position, making it more responsive to short-term market fluctuations, which is particularly advantageous for smaller funds [6][7]. - Many flexible allocation funds typically adopt a neutral position strategy, maintaining stock positions between 40% to 60%, but in high-pressure performance situations, they may adjust positions to enhance net value elasticity [7]. Group 3: Timing Debate - The ongoing debate about market timing remains relevant, with some fund managers emphasizing the difficulty of timing and opting for a focus on stock selection instead [2][8]. - The performance of different funds can vary significantly based on timing decisions, as illustrated by the contrasting results of two funds managed by the same team due to differing timing strategies [8][10].

在连续二十几期的情绪观察之后，不知道读者是什么体会，我自己总结了一下主要是以下几点： 因此，比较稳妥的策略是： 关于情绪指标的延伸阅读： 关于动量指标的延伸阅读： 《 RSR（RSV、RPS）和趋势模板的背景含义 》 市场的日常是非理性的，因此会有波动起伏；市场又是很理性的，因为非理性终究要回归。 所谓循环和规律，只是对历史数据的统计归纳，如果生搬硬套必然犯刻舟求剑的毛病。总结用归纳法，实战用演绎法。交易演绎法，不是用归纳得到的经 验去求必然因果，而是不断评估大局和局部的胜率和赔率，更新自己的对策，西洋学说称之为贝叶斯主义。 择时的本质是情绪管理。 市场起伏在统计学上有迹可循，始终循环，但不简单重复； 方向可以预期，但无法准确预测，尤其无法预测涨跌幅度； 大多数周期，回撤比上涨要快，也即浮盈很容易变成浮亏； 胜率在情绪爬升期，赔率在情绪冰点，情绪高温区二率皆输； 动量背离是情绪反转前兆，动量的本源就是情绪; 情绪的最小张力单元就是TR，向上或者向下突破TR预示情绪反转； 1. 冰点抓胜率和赔率双赢，极端超卖区域的快速反弹； 2. 40周期情绪爬升过程中，抓更短周期的情绪回落点的胜率（埃尔德的三重滤网）； 3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of three-year holding period funds has significantly decreased, with only 14 products established in 2023 and 2024, contrasting sharply with previous years when many high-value funds were launched [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Issuance Trends - The number of three-year holding period funds has sharply declined, with only 11 products established in 2023 and 3 in 2024, indicating a cautious approach from public funds due to market volatility [2][3]. - In the years 2020 to 2022, the issuance of three-year funds peaked, with 21, 38, and 17 products launched respectively, including several large-scale funds exceeding 10 billion [3]. Group 2: Performance of Newly Established Funds - Most of the newly established three-year funds have achieved positive returns, with notable performances such as Dachen Zhi Xin's nearly 30% increase and Yinhua's over 23% rise since inception [4]. - The funds that were launched during market lows have benefited from better timing, contrasting with the poor performance of funds issued at market highs [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - Fund managers emphasize the importance of timing in investment, suggesting that funds should be launched during market lows to capitalize on valuation advantages [4][6]. - Despite the overall positive performance of newly established funds, many have missed out on trending sectors like artificial intelligence, focusing instead on stable, long-term investments [5][6].

从本质上来说，任何投资决策都是预测未来。无论你决定购买股票，卖出债券，或者坐拥现金，其实都是基于你对未来做出的判断之上的决策。因此有很多 人认为，如果想要获得好的投资回报，投资者一定要有超凡的预测未来的能力。那么问题来了：事实确实是这样么？ 在分析这个问题之前，我们先来看张图。 图表 1 ：市场对美联储基准利率的预测总是错 数据来源：彭博社，Apollo Chief Economist 上图展示了自2008年以来美联储基准利率的历史（绿色实线）。站在现在回头看，我们可以看到一条非常清晰的历史路径：美联储在2008年金融危机后，立 刻大幅度降息至零，并将零利率水平一直保持到2016年。在2016到2020年间，美联储慢慢逐步升息。然后到了2020年，COVID疫情发生后，美联储再次将利 率降到零。从2022年开始，为了应对通胀压力，美联储又快速将基准利率提到5%左右。 很多人可能没有意识到的是，市场对于美联储未来利率的预测（上图中虚线）， 从来没有正确过 。举例来说，在2008到2016年间，美联储利率始终保持在 零，然而同期市场的共识是：美联储很快就会升息。很少有人会预料到，零利率会整整持续8年。 接下来，让 ...