Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen and other first-tier cities is experiencing a notable recovery, with significant sales performance in April, driven by strong demand and supportive policies [2][3][10]. Group 1: Shenzhen Market Performance - The Hongshan Huafu project in Shenzhen sold 184 units within an hour of its launch, marking it as the second "daylight plate" of the year [1][5]. - In April, Shenzhen's new home sales reached 4,751 units, a year-on-year increase of 68%, while second-hand home sales were 6,266 units, up 27% [2]. - The strong sales in Shenzhen reflect a robust demand for affordable housing, supported by favorable policies [5][16]. Group 2: Overall Market Trends - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou is also showing high transaction volumes, indicating a sustained recovery trend [3][6][7]. - The "small spring" phenomenon in March has continued into April, with many cities maintaining high sales levels [4][10]. - Despite the overall positive trend, some cities have seen a decline in sales compared to March, highlighting a mixed performance across different regions [11][12]. Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for a stable real estate market, with expectations of further policy support to enhance housing supply and stabilize prices [13][14][16]. - The upcoming housing exhibition in Shenzhen aims to promote quality projects and maintain market enthusiasm [15]. - Analysts predict that the real estate market will continue to recover in the second quarter, driven by ongoing policy measures and increased supply of quality housing [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but gives individual ratings for each black commodity: steel - narrow - range adjustment; iron ore - repeated oscillations; coking coal - consolidation; coke - consolidation; manganese silicon - oscillation; ferrosilicon - oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on April 25, 2025, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and future trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures fell slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. This week, rebar production decreased slightly, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped significantly. Considering short - term tariff war relief and domestic policy expectations, as well as raw material and finished - product support, it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 dropped 0.96% to 720.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices also fell. Supply showed a slight increase in global shipments, while demand saw an increase in molten iron production and a rise in port inventory. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures dropped 0.68% to 956 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. With policy support expectations, it is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures dropped 0.28% to 1590.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports declined. Supply production is stable, and demand is supported by high - level blast furnace operation. It is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices declined, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. With a decrease in supply in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5658 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market sentiment is weak. With continued production cuts in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, as well as profit, spread data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, etc [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][43] - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [52][53]