Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias. Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainty risk factors have continued to increase, and market risk aversion has risen, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From a macro perspective, the inflation and financial data in September were still weak. In the future, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, and there are still expectations of policy easing, which will provide strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term. Overall, affected by the short - term increase in risk aversion and medium - long - term easing expectations, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias in the short term [3][28] Summary by Directory 1 Market Review - **1.1 Treasury Bond Trends**: Information about the price trends of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 is presented, with data sources from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [7][9][12] 2 Treasury Bond Indicators - **2.1 Interest Rate Term Structure**: Diagrams of the Ministry of Finance - local bond interest rate term structure and the ChinaBond Treasury bond interest rate term structure are provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [17][18] - **2.2 Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: A diagram of central bank open - market operations is provided [21] - **2.3 Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: A diagram of the Treasury bond yield curve is provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [22] - **2.4 Market Interest Rates and Policy Interest Rates**: A diagram of market interest rates and policy interest rates is provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [26] 3 Conclusion - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias. Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainty risk factors have continued to increase, and market risk aversion has risen, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From a macro perspective, the inflation and financial data in September were still weak. In the future, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, and there are still expectations of policy easing, which will provide strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term. Overall, affected by the short - term increase in risk aversion and medium - long - term easing expectations, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias in the short term [28]

Group 1: Report's Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher. The resurgence of the tariff war has increased market risk aversion, which is favorable for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, China's economic data shows strong resilience, reducing the need for an across - the - board interest rate cut. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut between market interest rates and policy rates is weak, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. The expectation of policy easing still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On October 14, the People's Bank of China conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and an operating interest rate of 1.40%. There were no 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities on this day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. Additionally, 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货延续底部震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均高开，全天小幅收涨。消息面，上周五特朗普突发关税 威胁，资本市场风险偏好快速回落，避险情绪升温，利多国债期货。从宏观 基本面的角度来看，目前国内需求有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来需要偏宽 松的货币环境，政策宽松预期仍存，对国债期货构成较强支撑。不过短期内 国内经济数据表现较强韧性，短期内全面降息的必要性有所不足，目前市场 利率与政策利率直接隐含的降息预期较弱，国债期货上行动能也有所不足。 总的来说，短期内国债期货上行动能与下行空间均有限，以底部震荡整理为 主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar is experiencing a decline after a strong performance last week, with the dollar index falling below the 98.00 mark, indicating a need for market momentum [1] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report released on Friday was interpreted positively by the market but failed to provide any significant stimulus for the dollar [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts is still present, which has diminished the recent upward momentum of the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has indicated that a weak labor market is a concern, suggesting that soft employment data could lead to a weaker dollar [3] - This week is pivotal with key employment data releases, including JOLTS job openings and weekly initial jobless claims, culminating in the employment data on Friday [3] - If employment data is unexpectedly strong, it could reset market positions and invigorate the dollar [3] Group 3 - The outcome of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership contest in Japan is crucial, as the winner could provide political cover for the Bank of Japan to take action [4] - A victory for candidate Koizumi could clear uncertainties and potentially lead to interest rate hikes as early as October [4] - The upcoming short-term economic survey will be a critical test of Japan's economy's readiness for higher interest rates amid tariff pressures [4] Group 4 - The market risks this week are primarily driven by US labor data and the political situation in Japan [4] - The dollar is at a crossroads, facing potential declines if employment data is weak, while the yen may gain strength from political clarity [4] - A single data release or political vote could significantly alter the market landscape this week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing upward momentum, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and safe-haven demand due to potential U.S. government shutdown risks. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of September 29, the spot silver price is trading at $46.92 per ounce, with a daily high of $47.17 and a low of $45.92 [1] - The silver price opened at $46.07 per ounce today [1] - The latest prices for various silver products include: - Silver T+D at 10,878 yuan per kilogram - Paper silver at 10.741 yuan per gram - Shanghai silver futures at 10,939 yuan per kilogram [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with the previous value, while the month-on-month increase is 0.2% [3] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.6% previously [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, a decline of approximately 5% from August [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [3] - For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with cumulative probabilities for rate cuts of 25 basis points at 32.2% and 50 basis points at 64.9% [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The silver market is supported by safe-haven demand as traders prepare for potential U.S. government shutdown risks [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest maintaining a bullish stance on silver, with key support levels at $45.50 and $45.00, and resistance levels at $47.00 and $48.00 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data in China shows characteristics of "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. The demand from downstream processing enterprises is in the recovery period of the peak season, but the order recovery is slow. The spot market is expected to remain quiet, with domestic inventory increasing and LME inventory rising while the spot premium drops significantly. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range trading [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,730 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,680 dollars/ton, down 275 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 24,273 lots, down 1,844 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,149 lots, down 369 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, up 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 160 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,310 tons, down 92 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,760 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 132 dollars/ton, down 97.02 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 261,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 265,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 176,650 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in August slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in August was 5.2%, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's economic data in August shows "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", increasing the expectation of a new round of policy easing. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th (Eastern Time). Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [3] 3.7 Key Points to Note - There is no news today [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a paradox where bad economic news leads to positive market reactions, driven by strong expectations of future policy easing [1][2]. Group 1: Unusual Phenomenon - Bad economic data is now interpreted as good news for the market, as it increases the likelihood of central banks easing monetary policy [2]. - Examples include: - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll data leading to a stock market surge due to increased rate cut probabilities [2]. - A country's CPI inflation data declining unexpectedly, resulting in a stock market rise as it suggests potential early rate cuts [2]. - Geopolitical risks causing both gold and Bitcoin to rise, driven by heightened risk aversion and expectations of central bank liquidity [2]. Group 2: Deep Analysis - There is a fundamental shift in three core logics: - Central bank policy priorities have shifted from "anti-inflation" to "anti-recession," indicating a readiness to ease when recession risks outweigh inflation concerns [3]. - Liquidity expectations are now overshadowing corporate earnings fundamentals, leading to higher asset valuations even amid declining profits [4]. - Institutional investors are strategically positioning themselves to benefit from anticipated policy shifts rather than waiting for economic data to improve [5]. Group 3: UNFX Strategy Perspective - Different investor styles require distinct strategies: - Trend followers should respect market trends and avoid countering the prevailing market sentiment, even if valuations seem unreasonable [6]. - Value investors should maintain focus on individual stocks with stable cash flows and reasonable valuations, without overreacting to short-term market fluctuations [8]. - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid linear extrapolation of current market logic and remain cautious of potential policy disappointments that could lead to market reversals [9][10].

Group 1: Market Stability and Policy Expectations - The market's future focus will be on the return of overseas volatility and domestic policy expectations, especially with the Fed's interest rate cut window opening and the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft being discussed[2] - The official manufacturing PMI has been below the growth line for five consecutive months, increasing the likelihood of monetary easing measures such as rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[4] - The youth unemployment rate has significantly increased, indicating urgent policy responses to stabilize employment are necessary[4] Group 2: Economic Trends and Risks - The overseas market has seen a decline in volatility, but recent geopolitical tensions and fiscal risks in Europe and Japan may lead to renewed market fluctuations[3] - The pressure for fiscal expansion and concerns over bond supply may further increase interest rates and liquidity pressures[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is expected to provide clearer signals for industry policy direction, with a focus on new productivity drivers[5] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies is underway, with 30 measures being promoted to stimulate consumer spending[4][13] - Risks include potential policy outcomes falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]

Core Insights - The recent rally in the A-share market is fundamentally different from previous short-term spikes, driven by improved liquidity, a shift in capital allocation, and expectations of policy easing, with increasing investor confidence in the long-term macroeconomic outlook [1][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have risen approximately 11% and 8% year-to-date, respectively, with significant acceleration since late June [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3700 points, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade since 2015, while the CSI 300 Index also broke through 4200 points, a level previously seen only briefly in September 2024 and January 2023 [3] Key Indicators for Sustainability - Investors should focus on four key signals to assess the sustainability of the current rally: changes in bond yields, policy catalysts, second-quarter earnings performance, and potential government interventions [3][4] - The current market momentum is expected to continue into the summer, with the CSI 300 Index potentially targeting a bullish goal of 4700 points in the short term [3][5] Liquidity Improvement - Domestic liquidity conditions are steadily improving, as indicated by Morgan Stanley's proprietary "Free Liquidity Indicator," which turned positive in June 2025 and remained positive in July, primarily due to funds flowing into the corporate sector from government bond issuances [3][4] Bond Yield Trends - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have risen to 1.78% and 2.11%, respectively, reflecting a positive shift in investor expectations regarding the economic outlook [3][4] Policy Factors - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China are accumulating positive effects, boosting market sentiment and enhancing investor expectations for price stability and improved supply-demand dynamics [4] - Anticipation of new local and gradual real estate easing measures in the coming months is also contributing to market optimism [4] Earnings Performance - The A-share market achieved its first quarter of earnings in line with expectations in Q1 2025, and if the trend of profit growth continues, it could signify a clearer turning point for the market [4] Government Intervention - Current margin financing balances exceed 2 trillion yuan (approximately 290 billion USD), but the proportion of free-float market value is slightly below the ten-year average, suggesting a lower likelihood of strong government intervention in the short term [5] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on A-shares since June, expecting continued outperformance compared to offshore markets [5]