Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly shock - based. The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and sorted out yesterday and closed slightly lower. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia led to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, so a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the long - term. However, due to the strong resilience of the macro - economy, there is a lack of necessity for an overall interest rate cut in the short - term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short - and long - term [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term treasury bond futures are mainly in shock. The driving factors include the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, and the strong resilience of the macro - economy [5].

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a slight increase of 0.04%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, with the latest price at 107.24 yuan [3] - The ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 1.31% as of October 22, 2025 [3] - The recent issuance of a government bond with a planned issuance of 55 billion yuan was fully subscribed, with an annual yield of 1.35% [3] Market Overview - As of the end of September 2025, foreign institutions held 3.78 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody amount [4] - Among the bonds held by foreign institutions, 2.00 trillion yuan were government bonds, representing 52.9% of their holdings [4] - The market has seen the entry of 11 new foreign institutional entities into the interbank bond market in September [4] Economic Context - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations has eased, leading to a reduction in risk-averse sentiment [4] - There are ongoing concerns regarding insufficient domestic demand, necessitating a supportive monetary environment to stabilize demand [4] - The pressure to achieve economic growth targets for 2025 is relatively low, indicating strong resilience in the macro economy [4] ETF Performance - The latest scale of the Bosera 30-year government bond ETF reached 17.509 billion yuan [4] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index, reflecting the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. Short - term interest rate cut expectations have cooled, but long - term policy easing expectations still support bond futures. Also, the weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short and long terms [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) have an intraday view of oscillating with a slight upward bias and a medium - term view of oscillating. The reference view is to oscillate. The GDP growth in the first three quarters reached 5.2%, reducing the short - term need for interest rate cuts. The unchanged LPR in October also cooled short - term interest rate cut expectations. However, long - term domestic demand problems still require a loose monetary environment, and the easing expectation supports bond futures. The weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, leading to insufficient upward momentum. So, short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

Core Viewpoint - If U.S. inflation data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026, thereby exerting downward pressure on yields and the dollar [1] Group 1 - Analyst Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade highlights the potential impact of U.S. inflation data on market expectations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market is at a stage of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Precious metals have prominent allocation value. For non - ferrous metals, pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities for copper after a pullback. The black - metal sector is under pressure, and its rebound depends on domestic policies. The energy - chemical sector is suppressed by crude oil and is a short - term short - allocation choice. Some agricultural products like sugar have independent long - position opportunities [2]. - Investors should follow the idea of "macro determines the direction, industry determines the variety", focus on key events such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting in late October, policy settings of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and adjust positions flexibly while strictly managing risks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Summary of Core Macro Hotspots during the National Day Holiday (1) International Macro: Loose Expectations and Geopolitical Risks - US economic data is weak, with a 32,000 decrease in September ADP employment and a drop in ISM services PMI. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October has risen to 99%, and the expected cumulative rate - cut range this year is 50 - 75 basis points. The US government shutdown has disrupted data release and increased market volatility. OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but there are concerns about long - term supply surpluses. Geopolitical risks are structurally differentiated, with the Middle East situation easing and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continuing. Trade protectionism is on the rise, with the EU and the US introducing tariff - increasing measures [6][7][9][10][11]. (2) Domestic Macro: Policy Expectations and Structural Recovery of Domestic Demand - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to set mid - to long - term policy frameworks. Industrial policies are coordinated, with plans for the steel and building materials industries. Economic data shows structural characteristics, with slow manufacturing recovery and differentiated holiday consumption. Financial data has improved marginally, and there are changes in foreign trade policies and domestic industrial adjustment [13][15][16][17]. 2. Outlook for Each Sector (1) Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - Precious metals are strong due to factors like the US government shutdown, weak economic data, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Copper has long - term support but faces short - term consumption suppression. Aluminum is relatively weak, and tin's price is affected by supply and consumption [21][22][23]. (2) Black Metals Sector - Steel has high inventory and weak demand, and its price depends on policy signals. Iron ore has a loose supply - demand pattern, and coking coal and coke are in a negative feedback loop in the industrial chain [24][25][27]. (3) Energy Sector - Crude oil is in a range - bound state with multiple factors at play, and natural gas is expected to be strong due to demand growth and supply concerns [28][29][30]. (4) Chemical Sector - Crude - oil - related products are expected to be weak, and glass is strong due to supply contraction while纯碱 is under pressure [30][31]. (5) Agricultural Products Sector - There are structural opportunities in oilseeds, policy support in grains, differentiated trends in soft commodities, and bottom - bound oscillations in livestock and eggs [32][33][35]. 3. Conclusions and Suggestions - The futures market is in a period of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Different sectors have different characteristics, and investors should focus on key events, adjust positions flexibly, and manage risks [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is that they are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The overall reference view is also volatile. This is due to the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of Treasury bond futures (TL, T, TF, TS) is volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is volatile. The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainties have increased, leading to a rise in market risk aversion sentiment, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. Macro data in September, such as inflation and financial data, are still weak, so there is an expectation of a loose monetary policy in the future, which also supports Treasury bond futures in the long run. Overall, due to the short - term increase in risk aversion and long - term loose expectations, Treasury bond futures are volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias. Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainty risk factors have continued to increase, and market risk aversion has risen, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From a macro perspective, the inflation and financial data in September were still weak. In the future, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, and there are still expectations of policy easing, which will provide strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term. Overall, affected by the short - term increase in risk aversion and medium - long - term easing expectations, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias in the short term [3][28] Summary by Directory 1 Market Review - **1.1 Treasury Bond Trends**: Information about the price trends of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 is presented, with data sources from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [7][9][12] 2 Treasury Bond Indicators - **2.1 Interest Rate Term Structure**: Diagrams of the Ministry of Finance - local bond interest rate term structure and the ChinaBond Treasury bond interest rate term structure are provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [17][18] - **2.2 Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: A diagram of central bank open - market operations is provided [21] - **2.3 Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: A diagram of the Treasury bond yield curve is provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [22] - **2.4 Market Interest Rates and Policy Interest Rates**: A diagram of market interest rates and policy interest rates is provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [26] 3 Conclusion - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias. Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainty risk factors have continued to increase, and market risk aversion has risen, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From a macro perspective, the inflation and financial data in September were still weak. In the future, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, and there are still expectations of policy easing, which will provide strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term. Overall, affected by the short - term increase in risk aversion and medium - long - term easing expectations, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias in the short term [28]

Group 1: Report's Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher. The resurgence of the tariff war has increased market risk aversion, which is favorable for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, China's economic data shows strong resilience, reducing the need for an across - the - board interest rate cut. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut between market interest rates and policy rates is weak, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. The expectation of policy easing still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On October 14, the People's Bank of China conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and an operating interest rate of 1.40%. There were no 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities on this day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. Additionally, 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On October 13, 2025, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. The sudden tariff threat from Trump last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk appetite of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which was beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is an expectation of a loose monetary policy, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, the domestic economic data shows strong resilience in the short term, and the necessity of a comprehensive interest - rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest - rate cut expectation between the market interest rate and the policy interest rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient. In general, in the short term, both the upward momentum and the downward space of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at the bottom [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On October 13, the People's Bank of China conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.4%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities in the open market that day, resulting in a net investment of 137.8 billion yuan [5] - On October 13, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first three quarters of 2025. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Among them, exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.2%. In September, the total imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% [5]