Core Viewpoint - China should promote economic growth to stabilize debt, maintain policy rationality and coherence, and focus on the healthy management of private sector debt to ensure debt sustainability through various dimensions such as optimizing industrial structure, strengthening policy coordination, and enhancing debt management and risk prevention, thereby achieving robust economic development [3][16]. Group 1: U.S. Government Debt Rate Evolution - The U.S. government debt rate has evolved through two main phases since the 1940s, with a decline from the 1940s to the late 1970s due to post-war reconstruction and a subsequent rise starting in the 1980s influenced by economic conditions and political factors [5][6]. - The first phase saw a decrease in debt rate due to fiscal policies aimed at reducing military and infrastructure spending, leading to budget surpluses during certain years [5]. - The second phase, beginning with Reagan's administration, marked a continuous increase in debt rate driven by large tax cuts and increased government spending, exacerbated by economic downturns and political decisions [6][7]. Group 2: Japanese Government Debt Rate Characteristics - Japan's government debt rate has shown a long-term upward trend influenced by social security expenditures and economic bubbles, with significant fluctuations during economic crises [10][11]. - The debt rate increased sharply post-1990 due to the bursting of the economic bubble, leading to extensive fiscal measures to stabilize the economy, resulting in an average annual growth of about 7.8% in debt rate during the following years [12]. - The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated Japan's debt situation, pushing the debt rate to 259%, a significant increase of approximately 22.3 percentage points from 2019 [12][14]. Group 3: Implications for China - Economic growth is the core support for debt stability, as evidenced by the U.S. and Japan's historical experiences, suggesting that China should optimize its industrial structure and promote technological innovation to enhance GDP growth and ensure debt growth aligns with economic and fiscal revenue growth [16][17]. - Policy rationality and coherence are crucial, as political interference in fiscal decisions has led to rising debt in the U.S. and Japan; thus, China should focus on long-term strategic considerations in policy-making to avoid short-term debt risks [17][18]. - The health of the private sector is key to a virtuous debt cycle, and China should manage private sector debt effectively, encouraging reasonable leverage during economic upturns and enhancing financial services during downturns to stabilize the economy [18][19]. - Ensuring debt sustainability requires a multi-dimensional approach, including optimizing fiscal revenue structures, enhancing tax collection efficiency, and improving the sustainability of social security systems to balance debt utilization and risk prevention [18][19].

软实力衰退与否，有不同视角 作为软实力概念的奠基者，他的离开正值一个微妙的时刻—— 美国的国际软实力似乎正在以一种诡异的方式，从内部被破坏。 以下文章来源于嬉笑创客 ，作者CB 嬉笑创客 . 谈创业事，谈经济，谈生活 本文来自微信公众号： 嬉笑创客 ，作者：CB，头图来自：视觉中国 国际政治的泰斗、哈佛肯尼迪学院前院长约瑟夫·奈 （Joseph Nye） 在5月6日去世，享年88岁。没有国际政治学生能够避开这位老爷子，我也一样。 但要注意，视角不同，对软实力的判读会完全不同。 对于老特的MAGA基本盘来说，美国的软实力可能正如日中天、万国来朝。对于这群人而言，原先有强大的软实力但毫不运用，就像段誉有着震古烁 今的内力储备但不知如何使用，是彻头彻尾的浪费，直到老特上台，犹如萧峰战神附体，把80%的实力打出了150%的威力，是真实软实力的大提 升。 这也是老特班子的内宣口径。 但在国关学者和其他国家来看，尽管约瑟夫·奈在历史上曾多次反思过美国的领导地位是否行将衰落，他很可能从来没像今天一样，强烈地感受到下 坡路的威胁如此迫在眉睫。在去世前，在老特的上一任期，他的看法可以用他自己的语言概括："川普担任总统四年，对我 ...

国际政治的泰斗、哈佛肯尼迪学院前院长约瑟夫·奈（Joseph Nye）在5月6日去世，享年88岁。没有国际政治学生能够避开这位老爷 子，我也一样。 软实力衰退与否，有不同视角 作为软实力概念的奠基者，他的离开正值一个微妙的时刻——美国的国际软实力似乎正在以一种诡异的方式，从内部被破坏。 但在国关学者和其他国家来看，尽管约瑟夫·奈在历史上曾多次反思过美国的领导地位是否行将衰落，他很可能从来没像今天一样， 强烈地感受到下坡路的威胁如此迫在眉睫。在去世前，在老特的上一任期，他的看法可以用他自己的语言概括："川普担任总统四 年，对我、对美国和对世界来说都很煎熬。他很难相处，因为他对国际事务的情境智力很低，而且他高度自恋，限制了他的情绪智 力。" 一个难相处的人不一定是坏的共事者。有的领导很难相处，对下要求严格、挑剔，但你知道他会让你提升进步，并且分利益的时候 公平甚至大方，你不太会有怨言。但如果这个领导反复无常、苛刻且理由不能服众，很多时候让人觉得只是为了挑刺而挑刺，以批 评来立威，你不会敬佩，也不会想追随。 对外和对内不在自己阵营的人，老特无疑都是那个"难相处"的人。如果对内还有整体国力提升这样的业绩可以交待，对外 ...

"奈游走在理论研究和政策制定之间，这一经历使他对美国外交政策的运作机制有着独到的见解。"《金 融时报》评论称。报道援引美国前高级情报官员和政策制定者韦德宁的话称，奈既能进行高度理论化的 国际关系思考，又能将其转化为实际政策。 据肯尼迪政府学院创始院长艾利森称，奈最为自豪的是他曾通过双重途径为阻止核战争作出的贡献：既 以学者身份担任"避免核战争"项目联合主席进行智力输出，又以官员角色在克林顿政府中付诸实践。 在学术方面，奈提出的最著名的概念是"软实力"。1990年，他在自己所著的《注定领导世界：美国权力 性质的变迁》一书中创造了"软实力"一词，用来描述国家所具有的除经济及军事力量外的第三方面实 力，主要是文化、价值观、意识形态及民意等方面的影响力。至今"软实力"仍是国际关系专业教科书中 必备的术语。他也是国际关系理论中"新自由主义"学派的代表人物。 【环球时报报道 记者 白云怡 李艾鑫】美国哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院7日发布公报称，学院前院长、美 国知名政治学者约瑟夫·奈于6日去世，享年88岁。据英国《金融时报》、新加坡《联合早报》等媒体报 道，"软实力"概念提出者约瑟夫·奈是国际关系领域最杰出的思想家和实践者之一 ...

Economic Overview - Germany's economy has been in stagnation since 2021, with predictions of continued recession through 2025, marking it as potentially the largest crisis since World War II [1][2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a GDP growth of only 0.3% in 2025, placing Germany at the bottom among major economies [1][2] - The manufacturing sector, particularly the automotive industry, is facing significant challenges, including layoffs and reduced investment [2][10] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The automotive industry, a key pillar of the German economy, is experiencing a collapse, with Volkswagen announcing a plan to cut 10,000 jobs [2][10] - Manufacturing job vacancy rates have dropped to their lowest since the 2009 financial crisis, indicating a shrinking labor demand [2][4] - The shift towards electric vehicles is hindered by rising costs and competition from Chinese manufacturers, impacting traditional German automotive firms [10][19] Trade and Export Dynamics - Germany's export model is under threat, with a notable decline in exports to China, down 9.7% year-on-year in 2024 [3][4] - The trade surplus with the U.S. has reached a record €65 billion, raising concerns about potential tariffs from the U.S. government [6][19] - The overall trade-to-GDP ratio fell to 90.11% in 2023, a decrease of 9.77% from the previous year, reflecting a downturn in international trade [8][19] Labor Market and Employment - The labor market is showing signs of strain, with job vacancies decreasing by 23% and unemployment expected to rise to 3.5% by the end of 2024 [14][21] - Despite a slight increase in disposable income, consumer confidence remains low, leading to reduced spending and further economic stagnation [13][14] Structural Economic Issues - Germany's reliance on exports and traditional manufacturing is becoming increasingly unsustainable, with a need for diversification and innovation [12][19] - The country faces significant challenges from rising energy costs and geopolitical instability, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [9][18] - The economic model has been criticized for its over-reliance on external markets, making it vulnerable to global economic fluctuations [12][19] Policy and Economic Management - The current economic management approach, heavily influenced by neoliberal policies, has been criticized for failing to address underlying structural issues [11][22] - There is a call for increased public investment and a reevaluation of fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand and economic growth [28][29] - The need for a shift towards a more balanced economic model that prioritizes long-term stability over short-term gains is emphasized [26][29]

Group 1 - The book "Nora in China: The Shaping and Evolution of the New Female Image, 1900-1930s" discusses the influence of Ibsen's play "A Doll's House" on Chinese women's liberation and identity during the early 20th century [1][2] - The character Nora serves as a model for women's self-liberation, inspiring intellectuals concerned about national strength and identity [2] - The book explores various interpretations of Nora's story in China, including themes of self-rescue, resistance to marriage, and career aspirations, highlighting women's journey towards independence [2] Group 2 - The book "Transitional Labor: Delivery Riders in the Platform Economy" examines the precarious nature of gig work, particularly focusing on delivery riders who often view their jobs as temporary or transitional [3][4] - The research indicates that the delivery economy has grown significantly, with riders becoming a common sight even in smaller cities, driven by algorithmic systems and surveillance capitalism [5] - The study concludes with concerns about the dignity and safety of individual laborers, emphasizing the fragmented helplessness experienced by riders in the gig economy [5] Group 3 - The book "The Cigarette Company: A Study of Sino-American Tobacco Trade, 1870-1930" analyzes the rise of cigarette consumption and its ties to capitalism, particularly through the lens of the British American Tobacco Company [10][11] - It details the establishment of the company's branches in China and the intricate "Bright Leaf Tobacco Network," illustrating the pervasive influence of cigarette culture across various social and cultural domains [12] - The book emphasizes the ongoing relevance of its themes, particularly regarding the establishment and functioning of networks in the context of capitalist expansion [12]