Core Insights - The domestic futures market for natural rubber is experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract opening at 15,400.00 CNY/ton and a drop of 2.68% observed during the trading session [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of the midday close, the highest price for natural rubber futures reached 15,465.00 CNY, while the lowest was 15,050.00 CNY [1] - The total warehouse receipts for natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,220 tons compared to the previous trading day, totaling 121,670 tons [1] Export Data - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline [1] - Specific export figures include: - Standard rubber: 1.116 million tons, down 20% year-on-year - Sheet rubber: 308,000 tons, up 22% year-on-year - Latex: 556,000 tons, up 10% year-on-year [1] - Exports to China amounted to 759,000 tons, marking a 6% increase year-on-year [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 20, 2025, the rubber inventory at the Osaka Exchange was 3,466 tons, an increase of 251 tons from 3,215 tons on October 10 [1] Future Market Outlook - New Century Futures indicates that both bonded and general trade warehouses are continuing to deplete inventory, with a reduction in total port inflow [2] - Hualian Futures notes that rubber prices are adjusting in line with overall market trends, with recent rainfall and typhoons affecting rubber tapping in major production areas [2] - The demand side remains pressured by the domestic real estate market, with no improvement expected, although heavy truck sales have seen a significant increase of over 80% year-on-year in September [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - Donghai Futures Black Building Materials Weekly Strategy" [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Liu Huifeng, Wu Bingxin [2] Group 2: Soda Ash and Glass Futures Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.65%. The closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan, with a daily decrease of 3 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -0.27%. The trading volume of the soda ash main contract was 1,407,877 lots, an increase of 2231 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume of the glass main contract was 1,721,622 lots, an increase of 163,001 lots from the previous week [6]. - **Price Trends**: The report presents the historical closing price trends of the soda ash and glass main contracts, as well as the weekly price fluctuations and trading volume changes [3][4][6]. Group 3: Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: China's soda ash production has increased week - on - week, with some plants resuming operation and the operating rate rising. Soda ash is still in the capacity - launch period, and the supply pressure persists [68]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The overall capacity utilization rate of soda ash has increased. The capacity utilization rates of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process are 91.09% and 76.23% respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.67 and 0.49 percentage points, and week - on - week increase rates of 1.87% and 0.65% respectively [30]. - **Inventory**: The total factory inventory of soda ash is 170.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 tons, an increase rate of 0.09%. Among them, the heavy - soda ash inventory is 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons, a decrease rate of - 0.66%, and the light - soda ash inventory is 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons, an increase rate of 1.03% [36]. - **Profit**: The weekly profit of soda ash has decreased, and the current loss is expanding [68]. Group 4: Glass Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The number of operating glass production lines and the capacity utilization rate remained stable last week, with overall supply remaining stable and little week - on - week change [69]. - **Demand**: The order days of downstream deep - processing plants are 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days. The peak - season demand has slightly improved, but it is still not good compared to the same period last year, showing a situation of "peak season not prosperous" [69]. - **Inventory**: The report shows the inventory trends of glass in different regions and overall in China, including factory inventories and trader inventories [49][56][60]. - **Profit**: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels have decreased week - on - week [69]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - **Soda Ash**: Although the anti - involution policy is clear, there is no clear industry document issued in the soda ash industry yet. The driving force of soda ash following the policy is insufficient. Currently, the supply pressure of soda ash still exists. In the medium - to - long - term, the contradiction on the supply side is the core factor dragging down and suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a long - term bearish view [68]. - **Glass**: Glass is supported by the anti - involution policy, but the overall demand is still weak. Attention should be paid to the demand for glass during the year - end peak construction period. Short - term range trading is recommended [69].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with PTA futures experiencing a slight upward trend, closing at 4518.00 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [1] Supply Side - Yisheng Ningbo has reduced its production by 2.2 million tons, while some facilities are resuming operations, resulting in PTA operating rates at 78.8% [1] - A planned maintenance of 1 million tons by Nengtou has been postponed from October to early November [1] Demand Side - According to Hualian Futures, polyester operating rates remain stable, and the weaving industry's operating rate is unchanged [1] - Traditional peak season demand is supporting the market, with primary replenishment needs, while the sales performance of polyester filament factories is average [1] Inventory - This week, PTA factory inventory has slightly decreased, with factory inventory at 4.07 days, down 0.01 days from last week and down 0.63 days from the same period last year [1] Market Outlook - Jianxin Futures indicates that the crude oil market maintains an upward trend, providing cost support for PTA, while downstream polyester operations remain stable, leading to expectations of a narrow increase in PTA prices in the short term [1]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol remains weak, but due to the boost from macro - sentiment, ethylene glycol is expected to show a slight upward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 23rd, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract was 4060 yuan/ton, the highest was 4119 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4052 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 4086 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4095 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total trading volume was 188,925 lots, and the open interest was 334,305 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4095 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan, with an open interest of 334,305 lots, a decrease of 11,222 lots. The EG2605 contract closed at 4163 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan, with an open interest of 18,730 lots, an increase of 1,853 lots [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Last week, the operating rate of US refineries increased, boosting crude oil demand. After three consecutive weeks of inventory growth, crude oil inventories declined, and international oil prices continued to rise. On Wednesday (October 22), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.50 per barrel, up $1.26 or 2.20% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.34 - $59.83. The settlement price of the December 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.59 per barrel, up $1.27 or 2.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.38 - $64.17 [8]. - In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot (October bottom) negotiation price this week was 4189 - 4190 yuan/ton, up 79.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price before November 7 was 4168 - 4170 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for late November was 4168 - 4173 yuan/ton. The basis of the current spot (October bottom) was at a premium of 94 - 95 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before November 7 was at a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis for late November was at a premium of 73 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [8]. - The inventory of liquid ports in East China showed a downward trend, decreasing by 0.27 million tons or 0.14% compared to the previous period. The breakdown of inventory changes was as follows: ethylene glycol decreased by 2.30 million tons, methanol increased by 1.20 million tons, styrene decreased by 0.05 million tons, pure benzene increased by 1.20 million tons, diethylene glycol decreased by 0.43 million tons, toluene increased by 0.76 million tons, and xylene decreased by 0.65 million tons [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18].

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 4434.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4488.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.59% [1] - Major producers are reducing output due to various reasons, leading to a slight decrease in supply, while demand remains lukewarm despite the traditional peak season [1] - The processing fee for PTA is at a low level, indicating an overall undervaluation, but the long-term supply-demand outlook is pessimistic, suggesting a continuation of the current oscillating market pattern [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations of increased PTA maintenance, the polyester production load is anticipated to decline during the traditional off-peak season, resulting in a weak supply-demand outlook for PTA [2] - The cost side shows that PX loads remain high in Asia and domestically, putting pressure on PXN, while crude oil prices are fluctuating [2] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for PTA are weak, with recent news indicating a potential easing of US-China trade tensions, warranting attention to the progress of US-China economic negotiations [2]

Group 1: General Information - The report is a MEG daily report dated October 15, 2025 [1][2] Group 2:行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures contract EG2601 closed at 4061 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan, with a position of 337402 contracts, a decrease of 4571 contracts; EG2605 closed at 4149 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan, with a position of 10255 contracts, an increase of 2301 contracts [7] - On the 14th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4111, with a high of 4111, a low of 4042, a settlement price of 4072, and a close of 4061, down 51 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 155748 lots, and the position was 337402 lots [7] - Currently, the overall fundamentals of ethylene glycol have few drivers. After the macro - level pressure decreases, it is expected that ethylene glycol may rebound slightly at a low level in the short term [7] Group 3: Industry News - Trade tensions may ease, and there is hope for a cease - fire in the Gaza region, leading to a rebound in international oil prices. However, the prospect of oversupply limits the upward trend. On Monday (October 13), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.49 per barrel, up $0.59 or 1.00% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59 - $60.17; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.32 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.90 - $63.95 [8] - In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation price this week was 4127 - 4129 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price for late October was 4129 - 4131 yuan/ton, and for late November was 4129 - 4131 yuan/ton. The current spot basis was at a premium of 66 - 68 yuan/ton over EG2601, the basis for late October was at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601, and the basis for late November was at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market was 4120 - 4160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading atmosphere in the Zhangjiagang spot market was relatively cold, and the spot price continued to decline slightly [8] - The negotiation range in the Dongguan ethylene glycol market was 4150 - 4180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Dongguan market followed the price trend of the Zhangjiagang market, and the negotiation range decreased slightly [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]

Market Review - The main contract for ferrosilicon closed flat at 5768 CNY/ton, while the spot price in Tianjin was 5670 CNY/ton, down by 30 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises nationwide was 43.19%, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous week; the average daily output was 29,175 tons, down by 315 tons, marking an 8-week low [2] - On October 9, a group tendered silicomanganese alloy pricing: Hubei at 5790 CNY/ton for 400 tons; Jiangsu at 5760 CNY/ton for 500 tons; Guangdong Heyuan at 5860 CNY/ton for 800 tons, all cash inclusive of tax to the factory [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted a slight decrease in supply from production areas, but absolute values remain high; inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel tenders has not fully commenced, leading to a cautious industry outlook. Overall, while cost support for prices is strong, upward drivers remain limited, suggesting a potential for price fluctuations after a rapid release of short-term bearish sentiment, recommending short positions to exit [4] - Southwest Futures indicated that recent ferroalloy production remains high, with weak demand recovery, likely continuing the oversupply situation. Current low costs limit downward space, with support in low ranges gradually strengthening; low manganese ore inventory may lead to supply reduction expectations causing disturbances, and under low cost conditions, opportunities for long positions may arise if the spot market falls into a loss zone [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand and cost drivers of ethylene glycol (MEG) are insufficient at present. With the approaching National Day holiday, market participants are leaving the market to wait and see. It is expected that MEG may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 29th, the main contract of MEG futures opened at 4,215 yuan/ton, with the highest at 4,245 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4,209 yuan/ton, the settlement price at 4,225 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 115,895 lots, and the open interest was 320,886 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with an open interest of 320,886 lots, a decrease of 5,154 lots; the EG2605 contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with an open interest of 5,070 lots, an increase of 177 lots [7]. 3.2. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the continuous attacks on a certain European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the prospect of additional sanctions by the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints were triggered. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest in nearly two months. Brent crude futures rose for four consecutive trading days and exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since August. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the November 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42; the settlement price of the November 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [8]. - **MEG Market in Zhangjiagang**: The spot negotiation price of MEG in Zhangjiagang this week (before September 30) was 4,288 - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation price before October 10 was 4,292 - 4,293 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price in late October was 4,294 - 4,296 yuan/ton. The basis of the current week's spot (before September 30) was at a premium of 64 - 66 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before October 10 was at a premium of 68 - 69 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis in late October was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601. The mainstream transaction price of the MEG market in Zhangjiagang was 4,280 - 4,310 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the macro factors are bullish, but there is still a probability of short - term OPEC bearish news. When China faces the issue of holiday positions, long - term positions are not considered cost - effective. Short - term long positions in crude oil should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's final statement [3]. - For methanol, the supply side has a decline in start - up and lower corporate profits, with subsequent marginal increase in domestic supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals have improved marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. - For urea, the futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. - For natural rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. - For polypropylene, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For p - xylene (PX), the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For purified terephthalic acid (PTA), the supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - For ethylene glycol (EG), the domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.49%, to 491.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 35.00 yuan/ton, or 1.21%, to 2918.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.16%, to 3475.00 yuan/ton. In Europe, gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while fuel oil and naphtha inventories decreased [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro factors are bullish, but there is a short - term OPEC bearish risk. Long positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's statement [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 2 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained flat, and southern Shandong rose by 5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 105. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 29 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has a decline in start - up and lower profits, with subsequent marginal increase in supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a small number of regions seeing price drops. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 5 yuan to 1669 yuan, with a basis of - 69. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 51 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit production, the seasonality usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand expectation is improving. Bears think the macro expectation is uncertain, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply improvement may be less than expected. As of September 25, 2025, the all - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.04%, and the semi - steel tire production load was 74.52%. As of September 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.1 million tons, or 1% [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 38 yuan to 4897 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 157 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79%, with an increase of 2%. The downstream start - up rate was 47.8%, with a decrease of 1.5%. Factory inventory and social inventory increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6949 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The basis was - 49 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 117.5 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 73.2%, with a decrease of 0.20%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted start - up rate was 42.79%, with a decrease of 2.07% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The basis was 1 yuan/ton, and the upstream start - up rate was 80.73%, with a decrease of 0.74%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 43%, with an increase of 0.08% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 77.05%, with an increase of 2.32%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 51.45%, with an increase of 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. P - Xylene (PX) - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 18 yuan to 6656 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 814 dollars. The basis was 20 yuan. The 11 - 1 spread was 22 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 86.7%, with an increase of 0.4%, and the Asian load was 78%, with a decrease of 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The PXN was 209 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread was 104 dollars [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4646 yuan. The East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4590 yuan. The basis was - 74 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 1.1 million tons to 209 million tons. The spot processing fee rose 19 yuan to 211 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 14 yuan to 294 yuan [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 33 yuan to 4213 yuan. The East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4294 yuan. The basis was 61 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 63 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.1%, with a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 708 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 713 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 617 yuan [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35].