Market Overview - On January 28, 2026, the domestic futures market opened with mixed performance among major contracts, with lithium carbonate rising over 5% and SC crude oil increasing by 2% [3][7][8] - Other commodities such as tin, silver, asphalt, platinum, and fuel oil also saw gains exceeding 2% [3][7] Price Movements - Lithium carbonate (contract 2602 M) reached a price of 2611, reflecting a 5.19% increase [4][8] - Other notable increases included: - Tin (contract 2803 N) up by 2.65% - Copper (contract 2804 m) up by 2.50% - Asphalt (contract 2803 M) up by 2.20% [4][8] - Conversely, several commodities experienced declines: - Synthetic rubber and stainless steel (SS) fell nearly 2% - Coking coal and copper dropped over 1% [3][7] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume for lithium carbonate was reported at 182,000 contracts, with an open interest of 423,184 [4][8] - Other contracts with significant trading volumes included: - Tin (contract 2803 N) with a volume of 350 - Copper (contract 2804 m) with a volume of 2,259 [4][8] Summary of Key Contracts - Top gainers: - Lithium carbonate (2602 M): +5.19% - Tin (2803 N): +2.65% - Copper (2804 m): +2.50% [4][8] - Top losers: - Stainless steel (2603 M): -1.71% - Coking coal (2605 M): -1.15% - Coking coke (2605 W): -1.10% [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, downstream order cycles are shortened, and downstream product profits are shrinking. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [1][4] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the US Energy Secretary called for more than doubling global oil production, US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories also continued to increase more than expected. Overall oil product inventories continued to rise, and crude oil prices fell [1] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices decreased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approached, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry continued to decline, and new orders were limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,584 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,687 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,656 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.48%. The position increased by 12,150 lots to 498,932 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. The drawstring was reported at 6,250 - 6,730 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 500,000 tons week - on - week, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15/ton to $800/ton week - on - week [4]

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures continued to rise, with the main contract hitting the daily limit and increasing by 6.99% [1] - The br2603 contract showed strong performance, attributed to limited downtime in domestic butadiene facilities, maintaining high supply levels [2] - Downstream purchasing pressure remains, with production profits under significant strain, leading to an increase in inventory for some production enterprises [2] Group 2 - Demand from domestic tire manufacturers is mixed, with some companies benefiting from foreign trade orders, while others face production pressure [2] - The limited availability of domestic butadiene and ongoing export transactions provide cost support for synthetic rubber [2] - The market is expected to experience a short-term strong consolidation phase, with trade sentiment shifting as raw material prices rise [2]

Group 1 - Styrene futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7696.00 yuan, closing at 7694.00 yuan with a rise of 4.07% [1] - Newhu Futures holds a bullish outlook on styrene, citing unexpected maintenance by Asahi and positive news from the market, although there are concerns about price adjustments due to repurchased export orders [2] - Nanhua Futures indicates that the overall trend for styrene remains strong, with supply elasticity being low and valuation difficult to compress as domestic supply is expected to remain tight [3] Group 2 - The market has seen a reduction in inventory at major ports in East China to below 100,000 tons, tightening liquidity in the spot market [3] - There are rumors of operational issues at two styrene plants in the Middle East, which have led to an expansion in processing margins [3] - The focus will be on the sustainability of export increases, geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, and the downstream sector's ability to absorb high-priced raw materials [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for xylene is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract experiencing fluctuations and a price increase of approximately 2.10% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for xylene opened at 7234.0 CNY/ton and reached a high of 7414.0 CNY, with a low of 7180.0 CNY during the trading session [1]. - The overall market performance for xylene is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating positive sentiment among traders [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Newhu Futures reports that the recent rise in crude oil prices and tight supply expectations for PX have led to strong price performance and profit expansion [2]. - Despite a recent recovery in PX supply and weakening downstream demand, the overall supply-demand balance remains favorable until new production capacities are introduced in the third quarter [2]. - New Century Futures highlights that geopolitical instability and lower-than-expected crude oil exports from Venezuela are contributing to the upward pressure on oil prices, while PX supply remains relatively loose [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Wuzhou Futures indicates that high PX operating rates and seasonal maintenance in downstream PTA are expected to maintain a stockpiling trend for PX [2]. - The mid-term outlook for PX remains optimistic, with expectations of strong demand from downstream PTA after the Spring Festival, despite short-term volatility [2].

Market Overview - On January 21, synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract rising significantly by 2.86% to 11,850.0 yuan/ton [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 100-150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a tentative rise in pricing [1] - As of January 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in the inventory of butadiene rubber futures to 24,330 tons, down by 1,700 tons from the previous trading day [1] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted a decline in butadiene production, with upstream profits expanding. Although polybutadiene production remains high, weak spot prices are compressing profits. Rising overseas butadiene prices provide some support for polybutadiene rubber prices. The market is expected to remain volatile under pressure, with a potential stabilization in the short term, but external macro risks such as tariffs should be monitored [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted that domestic polybutadiene production facilities have seen minimal shutdowns, maintaining high supply levels. Strong demand for butadiene and rumors of export transactions have significantly increased production costs. However, downstream resistance to high prices has led to notable discrepancies in negotiations. Both production and trade inventories have increased, and while production profits are under pressure, there are no signs of supply reductions. The operating rate of domestic tire manufacturers has improved significantly week-on-week, with expectations for stable production schedules [3]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a downward trend, with coking coal futures showing weak performance and a decline of approximately 2.29% [1] - The main coking coal futures contract opened at 1175.0 yuan/ton, fluctuating between a high of 1176.0 yuan and a low of 1142.0 yuan during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Financial institutions indicate that domestic coal mine operations have returned to normal, leading to an increase in coking coal production and a rise in the enthusiasm of independent washing plants [2] - Demand for coking coal is recovering due to winter storage replenishment needs from coking steel enterprises, but the coking coal 2605 contract has broken below the 10-day moving average support, suggesting a short-term oscillating trend [2] - The market is advised to monitor production and safety inspections at coal mines, as well as the procurement pace and iron water production changes from downstream [2] - In the context of weak terminal demand and increased maintenance at steel mills, both iron water production and operating rates have declined, leading to a buildup of coking coal inventory at steel mills, which suppresses raw material demand [2] - Despite expectations for winter storage replenishment before the Spring Festival, the overall supply-demand imbalance remains prominent, with coking coal prices expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Styrene: Not specified - Propylene: Not specified - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - PVC: Not specified - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PX: Not specified - PTA: Not specified - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - Glass: Not specified - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows complex trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products face supply shortages, while others are affected by cost, demand, and policy factors [2][3][5] - There are risks such as demand shrinkage due to downstream profit pressure and supply - demand imbalance in the market, and at the same time, there are also potential investment opportunities in some products [2][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined, with tight supply in the short term and limited support from the demand side due to high raw material costs. There is a risk of demand shrinkage [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were volatile. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand has been pre - consumed, and the upward - driving force for supply - demand fundamentals is insufficient [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rose due to port de - stocking and refinery production cuts. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong [3] - Styrene futures rose. The market is in a tight - balance state, with expected port de - stocking, low enterprise inventory, and export support [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are expected to decline due to weak cost support and inventory accumulation. There may be investment opportunities in the second quarter, but it depends on downstream demand [5] - Ethylene glycol is affected by new domestic production and overseas shutdowns. There may be short - term improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip production has decreased, and the processing margin has improved, but there is still long - term capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Although there is port de - stocking, demand has decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile and stalemate. There is support from reduced imports in the first quarter [6] - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also risen. The short - term market may decline slightly, but it is likely to be strong within a range as agricultural demand starts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices weakened. Production capacity utilization has declined, and cost has increased. It is expected to reduce production capacity this year, and the price center may rise [7] - Caustic soda is in a weak state, with high inventory pressure. The industry is generally in a loss, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory pressure is still high, supply pressure is large, and downstream demand is weak. A high - short strategy is recommended [8] - Glass prices declined due to ignition plans. The industry is de - stocking, but there may be an increase in supply. The order situation is poor, and there may be seasonal inventory accumulation [8]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping to 2211.00 yuan, a decrease of 1.60% [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, domestic maintenance operations are stable, keeping supply at high levels, while Iranian supply remains low [1] - Demand is affected by reduced operating rates at MTO facilities in Zhejiang, with load dropping below 70% in East China, and attention is on the restart plan for Ningbo Fude [1] - January imports have significantly decreased, but MTO facility loads have also declined, leading to continued pressure on port inventory [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Everbright Futures expects methanol to maintain bottom oscillation due to the current supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical situation [1] - Yide Futures suggests that methanol may continue to operate within a range, with slight decreases in domestic operations and some facilities temporarily halted [1] - The future outlook remains uncertain, with potential impacts from Iranian geopolitical issues and inventory changes, indicating a possible continuation of range-bound trading [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy chemicals showed a significant decline, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures main contract opening at 4203.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of approximately 2.71% [1] - The highest price for LPG futures reached 4208.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 4115.00 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Petrobras (Brazilian National Oil Company) projected a total oil and gas production of 2.99 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2025, exceeding its targets [2] - The Russian Ministry of Finance reported that the country's budget received 8.48 trillion rubles (approximately 108 billion USD) in oil and gas tax revenue last year, marking a 24% decrease from 2024 and the lowest level since 2020 [2] - The EIA reported that as of January 9, the total U.S. natural gas inventory was 31,850 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 710 billion cubic feet from the previous week, but an increase of 330 billion cubic feet year-on-year, reflecting a 1.0% increase [2] Group 3 - Market outlook for LPG futures indicates a bearish trend, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a downward price adjustment expected [3] - Zhonghui Futures noted that the cost side of oil prices has increased uncertainty in the short term, while the overall market sentiment remains bearish [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted that short-term supply and demand pressures are manageable, but volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, is expected to result in wide fluctuations in LPG prices [3]