Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Egypt signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance bilateral financial cooperation and promote local currency settlement, amidst growing trade and shared challenges between the two nations [1] Group 1: Bilateral Financial Cooperation - The memorandum aims to deepen practical cooperation in areas such as bilateral currency swaps and settlements, payment system connectivity, investment and financing in financial markets, and mutual establishment of financial institutions [1] - The cooperation is expected to provide more efficient and convenient services for trade and investment between Chinese and Egyptian enterprises [1] Group 2: Trade Growth and Strategic Partnership - Bilateral trade between China and Egypt is steadily increasing, reflecting a positive momentum in financial and economic collaboration [1] - The partnership is positioned to further consolidate and deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Egypt [1]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Egypt aims to enhance bilateral financial cooperation and promote the use of local currencies in transactions [1] Group 1: Bilateral Financial Cooperation - The memorandum focuses on strengthening cooperation in areas such as monetary policy frameworks, financial markets, and payment systems [1] - It emphasizes business exchanges and information sharing between the two central banks [1] Group 2: Local Currency Settlement - The agreement aims to enhance cooperation in local currency settlement, promoting the use of local currencies in current account transactions and direct investments between China and Egypt [1] Group 3: Central Bank Digital Currency and Innovation - The memorandum includes collaboration in central bank digital currencies and digital innovation, covering information exchange and project cooperation [1] - This arrangement is expected to improve communication and policy coordination in relevant fields, creating a better environment for financial cooperation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced the elimination of wheat export tariffs effective July 9, 2025, marking the first removal of such restrictions since their implementation in 2021, which is expected to significantly impact global grain pricing and agricultural trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The removal of the wheat export tariff is a response to domestic pressures, including protests from farmers against high tariffs and the need to manage a record expected production of 84.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season [3][4]. - Prior to this adjustment, the wheat export tariff threshold had increased from 17,000 rubles per ton to 18,000 rubles per ton, with a drastic reduction in tariffs observed in July [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The immediate market reaction included a 1.2% drop in wheat futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, while European grain traders adjusted their procurement strategies in the Black Sea region [3]. - Countries such as India and Egypt accelerated their forward contract locking in response to the policy change, indicating a shift in international purchasing behavior [3]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The zero-tariff policy may pressure competitors like Ukraine in the global market, potentially leading to increased agricultural subsidies in the U.S. through legislative measures [3][4]. - The elimination of the ruble-based tariff system could encourage a shift towards local currency settlements in commodity trading, posing a challenge to the dollar-dominated international trade framework [4]. - Historical precedents suggest that similar policy changes could lead to significant market volatility, as seen with a 280% surge in corn exports following a tariff adjustment in 2024 [4].

Currency Market Overview - The Euro is trading slightly lower against the US Dollar around 1.1765 during the European session [1] - The Australian Dollar is accelerating its decline towards 0.6500 in the Asian session [1] - The US Dollar is showing positive momentum against the Canadian Dollar, rising to the range of 1.3920-1.3925 [1] - The US Dollar has rebounded above 144.50 against the Japanese Yen [1] - The British Pound has increased for the fourth consecutive day against the US Dollar [1] Key News on Currencies Japanese Yen - Fitch Ratings states that a significant reduction in auto tariffs is necessary for a trade agreement between Japan and the US [2] - Moody's maintains that the Bank of Japan is likely to continue raising interest rates, but weak wage data complicates the situation [2] Australian Dollar - ING reports that ongoing inflation slowdown opens a window for the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider rate cuts [3] - Analysts warn that strong employment data in Australia raises concerns for the Reserve Bank's dovish stance [3] Other Economic Indicators - Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased to $152.6 billion at the end of June [4] - Thailand's consumer price index in June fell more than expected [4] - President Putin calls for expanded local currency settlements and proposes the creation of a new BRICS investment platform [4] - Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will adopt a "dovish pause" this week to allow for economic assessment [4] Technical Analysis - The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) remains in the upper half of an ascending regression channel, with the RSI around 60 indicating a bullish tendency, though lacking momentum [5] - Key resistance levels for EUR/USD are at 1.1840 and 1.1900, while support levels are at 1.1740, 1.1700, and 1.1630 [5] - The USD/JPY is forming a symmetrical triangle, with the 50-day EMA at 144.90 acting as immediate resistance [5] - A breakout above this area could pave the way for a bullish trend towards the triangle's upper boundary at 146.50-147.00 [5] Australian Dollar Technicals - If the AUD/USD breaks the 0.6535-0.6545 range, it will activate a double top pattern, confirming a deeper correction with a target at 0.6510 [6] - For a bullish trend to resume, the price must break above the July 1 and 2 highs at 0.6590, targeting the Fibonacci extension levels at 0.6610 and 0.6640 [6] Upcoming Economic Data - Eurozone May retail sales data is scheduled for release at 17:00 [7] - The US global supply chain pressure index for June will be released at 22:00 [7]

Investment News - The Hong Kong government reported that the stock market rose by 18% last year, with a strong momentum expected to continue into 2025, as the number of IPO applications in Hong Kong is rapidly increasing, with fundraising exceeding 107 billion HKD in the first half of the year [4] - In the first half of 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange received 115 IPO applications, maintaining a steady acceptance pace, with 97 applications in June alone, accounting for over 80% of the total [4] - Since the announcement of the "merger and acquisition guidelines" on September 24, 2024, there have been 23 cases of A-share companies announcing mergers and acquisitions aimed at IPOs, with 31 focusing on core business integration and 9 on cross-industry mergers [4] Company Movements - Meituan and Taobao have launched aggressive promotions, distributing numerous food delivery coupons, including significant discounts, while JD.com also issued millions of exclusive coupons [6] - NIO's founder and CEO Li Bin announced that the starting price for the Lido L90 will be below 300,000 RMB, with the vehicle set to be available for pre-sale starting July 10 [6] - Roma Technology and Anker Innovations have announced recalls of over 1.2 million power bank products due to safety hazards from battery contamination [6]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the escalating trade tensions between the US and its allies, particularly India, in response to Trump's proposed tariff increases from 50% to 70% [2][4] - India has reacted strongly against the US tariffs, refusing to accept the proposed 70% tariff and retaliating by filing a complaint with the WTO while also imposing tariffs on US agricultural products [4][6] - The situation has led to a significant shift in India's foreign policy, as it seeks to strengthen ties with BRICS nations and explore alternative trade agreements, indicating a strategic pivot away from reliance on the US [8][10] Group 2 - Japan and South Korea are also feeling the pressure, with Japan advocating for negotiations instead of tariffs, while South Korea is caught between maintaining US relations and appeasing China [10][11] - Southeast Asian countries are reacting to the shifting trade dynamics, with Thailand imposing tariffs on Vietnamese goods, and German companies expanding production in India to mitigate supply chain risks [11][12] - The overall trade landscape in Asia is becoming increasingly volatile, with countries adjusting their strategies in response to US tariff threats and the evolving geopolitical climate [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Russian President Putin called for the expansion of local currency settlements and proposed the creation of a new investment platform for BRICS countries during the 17th BRICS summit [1] Group 1: Currency and Settlement Initiatives - Putin proposed the establishment of an independent settlement and custody system within the BRICS framework [1] - He emphasized the goal of increasing the share of settlements in rubles and currencies of "friendly countries" to 90% by 2024 [1] Group 2: Investment and Economic Cooperation - The proposal includes increasing the scale of bilateral investments among BRICS member countries [1] - A new investment platform for BRICS countries was suggested to facilitate this increase [1] Group 3: Additional Proposals - Putin proposed the establishment of a carbon market partnership, an arbitration investment center, a fair competition platform, and a permanent tax secretariat within the BRICS framework [1]

巴西总统卢拉：金砖国家银行的项目中有31%采用了本币结算。 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the recent U.S. tariff increases are ineffective and that the trend of re-globalization is irreversible [1][3] - It discusses the anxiety in the U.S. regarding its declining global dominance, which has led to current tensions, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [3][4] - The article highlights that the U.S. has shifted from multilateralism to a more transactional approach, which reveals a lack of strategic coherence [3][4] Group 2 - It points out that the U.S. manufacturing sector's decline is not solely due to trade agreements but is a result of a deep transformation of American capital over the past 40 years [4][5] - The article notes that while the U.S. continues to produce high-end and advanced technology products, these sectors are capital-intensive and cannot replace the jobs lost in labor-intensive manufacturing [4][5] - It mentions that emerging economies are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, particularly in the context of regional trade agreements [5][6] Group 3 - The article concludes that the U.S.-China trade dispute reflects a broader historical trend towards multipolarity and diversification of global reserve currencies [5][6] - It asserts that the world is not experiencing de-globalization but is instead advancing re-globalization under new conditions and rules [5][6]

Group 1 - Russia's financial reserves have significantly decreased from 10 trillion rubles to 6 trillion rubles in just two months, indicating a severe fiscal crisis [1] - The average daily expenditure of Russia in the ongoing conflict is over 400 million USD, approximately 30 billion RMB, highlighting the financial strain of military operations [3] - The energy export sector, previously a major revenue source for Russia, is under pressure due to Western sanctions, with the IMF predicting a mere 0.3% GDP growth for Russia this year, suggesting economic stagnation [5][7] Group 2 - Russia is actively seeking to enhance energy cooperation with China, with the Russian Energy Minister frequently visiting China to discuss potential projects [9] - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project is a focal point for Russia, aiming to transport natural gas to China, but the financial terms proposed by Russia may be seen as excessive by China [11][13] - China is shifting from emotional cooperation to interest-based cooperation, emphasizing the need for mutually beneficial agreements rather than one-sided concessions [15][25] Group 3 - Russian energy companies are facing a significant decline in net profits, dropping from 1.445 trillion rubles to 789.5 billion rubles year-on-year, reflecting a severe downturn in the energy sector [20] - High domestic interest rates and a rapidly increasing debt burden are exacerbating Russia's financial challenges, with 20% benchmark interest rates and a 14% annual debt growth rate [21] - The reliance on Chinese markets for energy exports is seen as a potential lifeline for Russia, but sustainable cooperation must be based on shared interests and risk-sharing [23][27]