流动性缺口

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债市启明|3月流动性展望:银行负债压力何时缓解
中信证券研究· 2025-03-04 00:10
Core Viewpoint - The liquidity gap in March is expected to narrow significantly compared to February, indicating a potential marginal improvement in the funding environment, contingent on the central bank's stance and policy direction during the Two Sessions [1][4]. Group 1: March Liquidity Gap Observations - The overall net financing from government bonds in March is projected to be approximately 1,100 billion [2]. - The expected fiscal revenue and expenditure gap for March is around -1,200 billion [2]. - Excluding MLF and reverse repos, the liquidity gap is anticipated to decrease significantly from February, suggesting a potential marginal improvement in the funding situation [2][4]. Group 2: Bank Liability Pressure - There is considerable pressure on banks' liabilities, particularly due to the outflow of long-term funds, which cannot be fully resolved through market behavior alone and requires regulatory support [3]. - The cautious approach of the central bank in monetary policy may lead to a release of easing signals if the Two Sessions effectively boost market confidence and alleviate the rapid decline in long-term bond rates [3]. - Conversely, if the economic recovery does not show significant pressure, the central bank's focus may remain on stabilizing the exchange rate and preventing risks [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity situation in March will largely depend on the central bank's attitude, especially considering that fiscal expenditures typically occur at the end of the month and the ongoing pressure on bank liabilities [4]. - Continuous observation and tracking of the policy direction from the Two Sessions and the central bank's monetary policy usage in March are essential [4].
深度 | 紧资金,何时休?——3月流动性展望【财通宏观•陈兴团队】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-03-03 15:00
核 心 观 点 年初以来,资金面维持紧平衡状态,尤其是短端利率明显抬升。那么,一季度政府债供给还剩多少?3月流动 性缺口有多大?资金面后续会改善么? 政府债供给多少? 国债方面, 参考1-2月同类型国债单只发行规模,我们预计3月国债或将发行1.4万亿元,考 虑7122亿元的到期量,国债净融资规模或近6500亿元。 地方债方面, 我们预计3月地方政府新增债和普通再融 资债规模分别为4100亿元和4200亿元;今年特殊再融资债发行进度已近半,3月特殊再融资债发行规模或约 4500亿元,则地方债发行总规模近1.3万亿元,净融资规模约1.2万亿元。 总的来看,我们预计3月国债和地方 债发行分别约1.4万亿元和1.3万亿元,政府债净融资规模合计超1.8万亿元。 资金面会改善么? 从资金供需的角度看,3月政府债净供给规模较高,缴准规模增长也对流动性构成扰动,而 提现回流对流动性有一定补充,在排除逆回购和MLF到期因素的情况下, 我们预计3月流动性缺口约2600亿 元,资金面存在一定的压力。 往后看,"两会"后资金利率有望和往年类似趋于转松,央行净投放也将边际增 加,随着后续国债发行规模提升,政府债供需失衡或边际缓解。在政 ...