Group 1 - Gold prices reached around $4050, continuing a strong oscillating trend supported by recent U.S. market data indicating slowing job growth and low consumer confidence [1] - The latest employment data showed a weak performance, with over 150,000 layoffs reported in October, the highest for this period in over 20 years, reflecting a slowdown in labor market growth [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with a nearly 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which lowers the holding cost of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2 - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the consumer confidence index to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, indicating increased economic uncertainty and rising demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - There are potential pressure factors in the market, as some U.S. government operations may resume, which could alleviate short-term economic risks and reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The main contradiction in the gold market is the interplay between interest rate expectations and risk appetite, with recent weak employment data and declining consumer confidence providing support for gold prices [4] Group 3 - Technically, XAU/USD is trading around $4050, with short-term support at $4020 and resistance at $4080, indicating a strong momentum but potential for pullback as it approaches resistance [2] - Observers are closely monitoring the dollar's performance and U.S. monetary policy information to assess potential price changes and market volatility characteristics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The December monetary policy will be a "real balancing act" between employment and inflation targets, as inflation remains high without signs of decline, while the economy shows some resilience [1] Economic Conditions - Many Americans are struggling with housing and other living costs, indicating economic pressure on the middle and lower-income groups [1] - There is evidence that these groups are facing issues related to economic affordability, which poses risks to consumer confidence and spending [1]

Group 1 - The market is currently under the shadow of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, leading to weakened economic data and increased risk aversion, with gold prices holding above $4,000 [1][2] - Gold prices rose to $4,002 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying and a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level since mid-2022 [1][2] - The World Gold Council reported a net inflow of 54.9 tons into gold ETFs in October, indicating a significant return of institutional funds [1] Group 2 - The euro gained some strength against the dollar, with the EUR/USD rising to around 1.1560, despite a decrease in Germany's trade surplus to €15.3 billion, reflecting ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone [2] - The U.S. stock market faced pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 200 points, marking a three-week low, as consumer confidence weakened and the AI sector experienced volatility [2] - The ongoing government shutdown, now in its 38th day, has led to the suspension of certain social welfare programs, impacting low-income groups and contributing to cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by high uncertainty due to the government shutdown, weakening consumer confidence, and rising corporate layoffs, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and safe-haven demand are supporting gold prices [3] - Short-term focus will be on the progress of government reopening and upcoming CPI data, which may influence the direction of the dollar and gold [3] - Investors are advised to monitor macro policy signals and data changes that could affect global risk appetite, while maintaining flexible multi-asset allocation and position management strategies [3]

Core Insights - The federal government shutdown has significantly impacted consumer sentiment in the US, bringing it to a near record low in November 2025, with the consumer sentiment index dropping to 50.3 from 53.6 in October, which is nearly three points below economists' expectations [1][2]. Consumer Sentiment - The consumer sentiment index's current level of 50.3 is the lowest since June 2022 and the lowest reported since at least 1978, indicating widespread concern among consumers about the economy due to the prolonged government shutdown [2]. - The decline in consumer sentiment is noted to be widespread across various demographics, including age, income, and political affiliation, reflecting a broad-based loss of confidence [3]. Employment Data - ADP reported that private employers added 42,000 new jobs in October, which, while better than expected, represents a significant slowdown compared to the three-month moving average of 188,000 jobs [4]. - Additionally, US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, marking a 175% increase from the previous year and the highest level of layoffs for any October since 2003 [4]. Economic Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the current economic management is leading to a loss of faith among Americans, as households face record debt and rising prices, contributing to the low consumer sentiment [5][6].

Market Overview - Major US stock indices opened lower and subsequently declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.62%, Nasdaq down 1.71%, and S&P 500 down 1% [1] - Large tech stocks experienced significant drops, with Nvidia and Tesla falling over 4%, while Google and Meta dropped over 2%, and Amazon fell over 1% [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - Most popular Chinese stocks declined, with Xpeng Motors down over 7%, Alibaba, NIO, and Bilibili down over 3%, and Weibo and iQIYI down over 2% [4][5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a significant downturn, with nearly 240,000 people liquidated in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin fell 2.74%, dropping below the $100,000 mark [5][6] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's preliminary report for November indicated that US consumer confidence hit a three-year low at 50.3, below expectations of 53 and the previous value of 53.6 [8] - The current economic conditions index dropped 6.3 points to 52.3, marking a historical low, while the consumer expectations index fell to a six-month low of 49 [8][9] - Concerns about rising unemployment have increased, with 71% of respondents expecting the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, more than double from the previous year [10] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has raised concerns about its impact on the economy, particularly affecting consumer sentiment across various demographics [8][11] - The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has suspended benefits due to funding exhaustion, affecting approximately 42 million people, marking the first time in 60 years that benefits have been halted during a government shutdown [12]

北京时间11月7日晚，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿前，道指下跌0.40%，纳指下跌1.55%，标普500指数下跌0.93%。 | 唯品会 | -0.27% | -0.050 | 0.029 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us VIPS | -1.31% | -0.240 | | | 微博 | -2.11% | -0.223 | 0.079 | | us WB | -0.76% | -0.080 | | | 阿里巴巴 | -3.48% | -5.839 | 0.149 | | US BABA | -2.92% | -4.900 | | | 京东 | -1.99% | -0.635 | 0.039 | | us JD | -1.81% | -0.580 | | | 腾讯音乐 | -4.82% | -1.075 | -0.199 | | US TME | -2.38% | -0.530 | | | 小鹏汽车 | -7.16% | -1.710 | 0.059 | | US XPEV | -3.18% | -0.760 | | | 理想汽车 | | -1.91% -0.385 | 0. ...

每经编辑｜段炼 北京时间11月7日晚，美股三大指数集体低开，随后跳水。截至发稿，道指下跌0.62%，纳指下跌1.71%，标普500指数下跌1%。 英伟达、特斯拉等暴跌 比特币跳水，24万人爆仓 大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达、特斯拉一度跌超4%，谷歌、Meta跌超2%，亚马逊跌超1%，苹果上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，小鹏汽车跌超7%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，微博、爱奇艺跌超2%，京东、理想汽车跌超1%。 | 唯品会 | -0.27% | -0.050 | 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us VIPS | -1.31% | -0.240 | | | 微博 | | -2.11% -0.223 | 0.07% | | us WB | -0.76% | -0.080 | | | 阿里巴巴 | -3.48% | -5.839 | 0.14% | | US BABA | -2.92% | -4.900 | | | 京东 | | -1.99% -0.635 | 0.03% | | us JD | -1.81% | -0.580 | | | 腾讯音乐 | -4.82% | -1 ...

Group 1 - The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index for November is reported at 50.3%, significantly lower than the expected 53 and the previous final reading of 53.6% [1] - The current conditions index is at 52.3%, marking a notable decline and approaching historical lows not seen since the late 1970s [2] - One-year inflation expectations have increased from 4.6% to 4.7%, the highest since August, while the 5 to 10-year inflation expectations have decreased from 3.9% [2] Group 2 - The market reaction to the soft sentiment and inflation numbers has been muted, indicating that investors may not be as responsive to these indicators as in the past [3] - The interest rate complex shows slight changes, with the 2-year yield at 3.55% and the 10-year yield at 4.09%, reflecting minimal movement from previous weeks [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in U.S. consumer confidence, reaching its lowest level in over three years due to economic uncertainties stemming from government shutdowns and persistent high prices affecting household finances [1][2] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index dropped from 53.6 in October to 50.3 in November, marking a new low since June 2022 and falling short of most economists' expectations [1] - The index measuring current economic conditions fell by 6.3 points to 52.3, the lowest recorded level, indicating rising public concern over the potential impact of government shutdowns on economic activity [1] Group 2 - A continuous increase in the number of consumers reporting rising living costs and high prices has been observed for five consecutive months, underscoring the ongoing inflationary pressures on household spending [1] - Long-term inflation expectations have eased slightly, with consumers anticipating an average inflation rate of 3.6% over the next 5 to 10 years, which is the lowest in three months; however, short-term inflation expectations have risen slightly [1] - In November, 71% of consumers expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, double the proportion from a year ago, reflecting heightened concerns about job security [2] Group 3 - The index reflecting personal financial conditions has dropped to its lowest level in six years, while the purchasing conditions for commodities have worsened to the worst level since mid-2022 [1] - The index measuring future expectations has fallen to 49, a six-month low, indicating a pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the economy [2] - The ongoing government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, leading to a lack of clarity about the true state of the economy, making consumer confidence surveys a limited reference point [2]

Core Insights - US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in over three years in early November, primarily due to concerns over the economic outlook exacerbated by government shutdowns and high prices [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The preliminary consumer confidence index for November fell from 53.6 in October to 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [1] - The current economic conditions index decreased by 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3, reflecting growing concerns about the impact of government shutdowns [1] Group 2: Demographic Trends - Confidence declined across various age, income, and political groups, indicating a widespread sentiment of pessimism among consumers [1] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Consumers have mentioned rising prices for the fifth consecutive month, although long-term inflation expectations have decreased, with a projected average inflation rate of 3.6% over the next five to ten years, the lowest in three months [1] - There was a slight increase in expectations for inflation over the next year [1] Group 4: Financial Pressures - Consumers are feeling financial pressure from multiple sources and anticipate a continued weakening of the labor market, which they believe will affect their personal financial situations [1]