在各项指数组成部分中，对当前进行重要消费的能力评估改善最为显著(上升1.9个百分点)。对家庭未来 财务状况和国家未来经济状况的评估也均有所上升(分别上升1.2个百分点和0.3个百分点)。相比一个月 前，对国家当前经济状况和家庭当前财务状况的评估则有所下降(分别下降1.5个百分点和0.2个百分 点)。 波兰中央统计局网站1月22日报道，2026年1月，波兰消费者信心与上月相比有所改善，对当前形势和未 来前景均持乐观态度。反映个人消费当前趋势的消费者信心指数(BWUK)为-9.6，比上月上升0.3个百分 点，与2025年1月相比上升5.5个百分点。 ...

尽管存在反对票，但官方表述并未释放出明确的宽松信号。政策声明继续强调经济活动保持稳健扩张，就业市场虽降温但并未恶化，通胀仍被描述为略高于 目标。这种措辞组合显示，多数决策者仍希望通过时间换取更多确定性，而非在数据尚未形成一致指向前贸然转向。FXTRADING分析认为，当前美联储 更像是在为未来政策转向做铺垫，而非立即启动行动，短期内政策不确定性主要体现在节奏而非方向。 加拿大央行维持中性立场 新西兰年末贸易回暖 新西兰12 月商品进出口规模同比均实现约 15% 的增长，使得当月录得约 5200 万新西兰元的贸易顺差，虽属温和水平，但明显优于市场此前的保守预期。 从结构上看，出口与进口同步扩张，反映出年末阶段无论是外部需求还是国内吸纳能力，均处于相对活跃状态。 从出口去向看，主要贸易伙伴贡献较为均衡。对澳大利亚和欧盟的出口增幅尤为突出，增速均达到两位数，显示区域贸易关系持续升温。与此同时，对美国 和日本的出口亦保持正增长，尽管幅度存在差异，但整体表明新西兰出口并未对单一市场形成过度依赖。进口方面，来自澳大利亚与欧盟的商品流入明显增 加，而来自美国的进口出现回落，在一定程度上缓和了进口扩张对贸易余额的挤压。FXT ...

报告显示，反映德国消费者信心的经济前景、收入预期和购买倾向三项核心指标均实现环比上升。与去 年同期相比，消费者对未来12个月德国经济前景的乐观程度显著提升，他们普遍认为经济正逐步摆脱低 迷状态，重回温和增长轨道。其中收入预期指标的改善，主要源于今年初法定最低工资标准上调，这一 政策调整有效改善了国内消费环境。 捷孚凯专家罗尔夫·比克尔表示："德国消费者信心在经历上月明显下滑后有所回升，但整体仍处于偏低 水平，此轮改善趋势能否持续仍待观察。持续的地缘政治紧张局势以及贸易冲突升级，可能再次对市场 情绪构成冲击，因此当前回暖基础尚不稳固。" 德国市场研究机构捷孚凯1月28日发布的报告显示，该国消费者信心先行指数在年初大幅走弱后迎来回 升，2月该指数较1月修正后的数据上升2.8点，至负24.1点。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 自1980年以来，捷孚凯每月针对约2000名德国消费者开展信心指数问卷调查，该指数作为预测德国经济 走势和居民消费趋向的先行指标，长期以来受到市场关注。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "High-level oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend strength being an integer within [-2, 2] [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Electronic Disk Data**: - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin yesterday was 451,160, with a daily increase of 6.07%, and the closing price of the night session was 436,450, with a decrease of -3.26%. The trading volume was 351,975, a decrease of 213,201 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 55,071, a decrease of 162 [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of tin yesterday was 54,865, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The trading volume was 1,437, an increase of 264 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 24,818, an increase of 612 [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The futures inventory of Shanghai tin was 8,553, a decrease of 71 compared to the previous day. The inventory of LME tin was 7,085, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of -0.38% compared to the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 428,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin was 426,300, a decrease of 10,500 compared to the previous day [2]. - The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was -243, an increase of 2 compared to the previous day. The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 254,790, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 960, a decrease of 6,270 compared to the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 414,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 418,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day [2]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 282,750, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous day. The price of 60A solder bar was 270,250, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - US consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2014, with a more pessimistic view of the economy and employment [4]. - The Japanese Finance Minister stated that if necessary, Japan will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions regarding exchange - rate fluctuations [4]. - Meta has reached an agreement with Corning, a supplier to Apple, and will pay $6 billion for data - center optical cables [4]. - India has cancelled tariffs on over 90% of EU goods and provided an import quota of 250,000 cars [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to reach a new high, and silver is aiming for 100. Copper prices are likely to be strong due to the decline of the US dollar. Zinc and tin are expected to trade in a high - level range. Lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Aluminum is expected to perform strongly, with an increase in alumina maintenance. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and palladium is expected to rise slowly. The situation of nickel in Indonesia remains uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices are supported by the rise of ferronickel due to concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, Comex gold 2602 rose 2.11% to 4938.40, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell 0.49% to 1083.56. For silver, Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51% to 96.215, and Shanghai silver 2602 rose 0.82% to 23370. Gold ETF holdings increased by 2 to 1079.66. Shanghai gold inventory increased by 2019 to 102009 kg, and Comex gold inventory (previous day) increased by 6979 to 36142880 troy ounces. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 11727 to 589052 kg, and Comex silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 4162840 to 422313658 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump downplayed the risk of dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to the lowest level since May 2014. The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise 3% and spot gold to rise over 2%. The US government shutdown is approaching [4][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai copper's main contract closed at 102600, up 0.71%, and the night - session price dropped 1.01% to 101560. London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13024, down 1.21%. Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 406 to 144908, and London copper inventory increased by 1825 to 172350 [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating TC/RC for 2026. A Chilean copper mine was fined, and a copper - gold mine in northern Chile stopped production. Road blockades at some mines in Chile were lifted [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai zinc's main contract closed at 24950, up 0.91%. London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3351, up 2.51%. Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 624 to 28312 tons, and London zinc inventory decreased by 775 to 110550 tons [14]. - **News**: The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in January, and there is uncertainty about future rate cuts [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai lead's main contract closed at 17000, down 0.41%. London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2036, up 0.05%. LME lead inventory decreased by 2425 to 211175 tons [17]. - **News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai tin's main contract closed at 451160, up 6.07%, and the night - session price dropped 3.26% to 436450. London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54865, up 0.68%. Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71 to 8553 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since 2014. The Japanese finance minister said that they will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions on exchange - rate fluctuations if necessary [21][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24305, up 90. LME aluminum 3M closed at 3213, up 17. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 79.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The average domestic alumina price was 2649, down 4 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: UBS said that rising metal and memory prices will erode the profits of electric vehicle enterprises. The US government shutdown is approaching [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [26]. Platinum and Palladium - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he is not worried about dollar depreciation. The "Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path of resuming rate cuts is unclear. Trump said the US has sent a large naval fleet towards Iran. The Hungarian central bank governor said Hungary may consider increasing the proportion of gold in central bank reserves [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai nickel's main contract closed at 146110, up 730. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14540, down 105 [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target and benchmark price formula. Some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation [33][34][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

Core Insights - UK independent retailers showed stronger sales performance during the recent Christmas trading period, contrasting with weaker demand from larger high-street chains [1][4] - The overall retail sector in the UK experienced mixed results, with some smaller outlets growing while larger retailers faced declines [2][4] Retail Sales Trends - Retail sales volumes in Great Britain saw a modest increase of approximately 0.4% in December, following declines in October and November, although sales volumes for the three-month period to December fell by about 0.3% [3][6] - Larger retailers experienced a sales drop of 1.6%, while smaller independents grew by 6.4%, indicating a fragmented market [4][6] Consumer Behavior and Economic Context - Consumer behavior during the holiday season favored unique or local stores, while larger retailers struggled due to subdued discretionary spending and weaker demand for traditional Christmas gifts [5][6] - The retail sector's performance is influenced by broader economic factors, including ongoing cost-of-living pressures and shifts in consumer confidence, with many households prioritizing essential spending over discretionary purchases [6][7] Sales Composition - Total retail sales volumes increased compared to the previous year, primarily driven by higher sales of essentials rather than a broad-based strength across all retail categories [7]

Core Insights - The leading economic indicators in the U.S. declined again in October and November, primarily driven by weak consumer confidence and a decrease in new orders [1] - Despite a strong actual GDP growth of 4.4% in Q3 2025, the leading indicators suggest a potential economic slowdown in 2026 [1] Economic Indicators - The main factor contributing to the decline in leading indicators is weak consumer confidence, with new orders being a secondary factor [1] - Other indicators remained relatively stable in November, with a notable positive contribution from labor market data, such as initial jobless claims and weekly hours worked in manufacturing [1]

Group 1 - The initial earnings reports from U.S. companies indicate a cautious outlook due to geopolitical uncertainties affecting travel demand and consumer spending [1] - Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have expressed concerns about the impact of global tensions on their profitability and travel demand [1] - Consumer goods companies like Procter & Gamble and McCormick report that consumers are maintaining a cautious spending attitude, reflecting broader economic uncertainties [1] Group 2 - 3M's earnings outlook fell short of market expectations, leading to its largest single-day stock drop since April of the previous year, highlighting ongoing uncertainties in the consumer and automotive sectors [1] - Industrial distribution and logistics companies, such as Fastenal and JB Hunt, reported earnings below expectations, indicating continued pressure in the industrial sector [1] - Despite a generally positive economic backdrop, with 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, corporate management's pessimistic statements contrast sharply with these indicators [1] Group 3 - The political landscape and trade policy changes under the Trump administration are complicating corporate planning, as CEOs face challenges in forecasting annual performance [2] - McCormick's CEO noted that inflation, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties are exerting pressure on the company's core market, contributing to disappointing earnings forecasts [2] - Procter & Gamble anticipates sales growth in the next six months despite external disruptions, including the impact of government shutdowns on low-income consumer purchasing power [3] Group 4 - Airlines like United Airlines are experiencing significant negative impacts on ticket bookings due to military actions in Venezuela, which could disrupt their previously positive operational outlook [3] - The Trump administration's policy measures, such as high tax refunds and potential stimulus, may provide short-term relief for consumers, potentially boosting consumer confidence [4] - The focus on consumer relief initiatives, including credit card interest rate caps, is part of a broader strategy to support low-income households and stimulate spending [4]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected increase in UK retail sales in December provides a boost to the economy during the critical holiday season [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - UK retail sales rose by 0.4% month-on-month in December, following a decline of 0.1% in November [1] - This data exceeded economists' average expectations, which had predicted a decline of 0.1% [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in the UK saw a slight increase in January, although overall sentiment remains low due to weak perceptions of the economic outlook [1] Group 3: Government Budget Impact - The autumn budget announcement in November may have provided some relief to households, as the government avoided raising income taxes and outlined plans to reduce household energy bills starting in April [1]

Core Viewpoint - UK retail sales showed a rebound during the key holiday season, with consumer confidence seemingly boosted by the Labour government's budget announcement in November last year [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In December, the seasonally adjusted retail sales in the UK recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, ending a two-month decline [1] - This performance exceeded economists' expectations, who had predicted sales would remain flat for the month [1] Group 2: Government Budget Impact - The budget announced by UK Chancellor Reeves on November 26 included tax increases, but most measures were not as severe as anticipated and will take effect later in Parliament [1] Group 3: Online Retail Trends - Online retail, particularly in jewelry, performed strongly in December, indicating higher demand for gold and silver [1]