智通财经APP获悉，美国波士顿联储主席柯林斯周二表示，在通胀压力预计于明年开始缓解的背景下， 她对今年进一步降息持开放态度。 柯林斯也承认经济环境充满不确定性，既可能出现通胀顽固，也可能伴随就业市场恶化，但她强调此前 最担忧的"通胀上行风险"已经有所减弱。 宏观数据方面，美国劳工部最新数据显示，8月职位空缺基本持平，为723万个，仅比7月修正后的721万 个略有增加。自2022年初峰值以来，职位空缺已明显回落，并在过去一年维持在相对稳定区间。 这一趋势显示出劳动力需求趋于平衡，但也伴随雇主招聘减少、失业者找到新工作所需时间延长的迹 象。美联储主席鲍威尔在9月降息时就曾警告就业市场显露疲软，虽然部分官员对此保持警惕，但仍担 忧高企的通胀水平限制了政策进一步宽松的空间。 柯林斯在纽约外交关系协会的一次讲话中指出："今年可能适度进一步下调政策利率是合适的，但前提 是数据要支持这种决定。"她重申了对本月初美联储降息25个基点的支持，认为在恢复物价稳定的同 时，保持政策"温和紧缩"有助于兼顾就业市场的风险。 与此同时，美国消费者信心数据也不容乐观。9月谘商会消费者信心指数下降3.6点至94.2，为五个月低 点，且低于市 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 29 Sep 2025 日本必需消费可选消费 Japan Staples Discretionary 日本消费行业 8 月跟踪报告：消费者信心反弹，饮料板块"旺季不旺" Consumer confidence rebounded, while beverages saw a sluggish peak season amid extreme high temperatures | 芮雯 Raven Rui | 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen | Qiao Xu | 季屏子 Pingzi Ji | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | raven.w.rui@htisec.com | hongwei.wen@htisec.com | qiao.xu@htisec.com | pz.ji@htisec.com | [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：通胀压力缓解，消费者信心反弹。8 月日本消费者信心指数回升至 34.9，高于 7 月的 3 ...

研究报告 Research Report 28 Sep 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 东南亚消费行业 8 月跟踪报告：各市场股指纷纷收涨，印尼泰国及新加坡通胀放缓 Stock Indexes Rose in ASEAN, Inflation Slowed in Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 PE(2025E) PE(2026E) 资料来源： Factset, HTI Related Reports 东南亚消费行业 7 月跟踪报告：领先指标喜忧参半，越南及泰国消费估值 提升 Leading indicators are a mixed bag, while consumer valuations are up in Vietnam and Thailand (31 Aug 2025) 80 100 120 140 160 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Prices - International platinum prices surged, with London gold rising 0.29% to $3759.895 per ounce, London silver increasing 2.46% to $45.994 per ounce, marking a new high since May 2011, international palladium up 1.7% to $1305.3 per ounce, and international platinum up 3.61% to $1611.52 per ounce [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with previous values, while the overall PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% compared to 2.6% previously [2][4] - Personal income in August grew by $95.7 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while personal consumption expenditure rose by $129.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, both exceeding prior expectations by 0.1 percentage points [4] Group 3: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 55.1 in September, a decrease of about 5% from August, with the current economic conditions index dropping from 61.7 to 60.4, and the consumer expectations index falling from 55.9 to 51.7 [5] - Nearly 70% of U.S. consumers expect inflation to exceed income growth in the coming year, while about 65% anticipate an increase in unemployment rates [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for decisive and preemptive interest rate cuts to address worsening labor market issues [7][8] - Recent data indicates a significant increase in labor market vulnerability, prompting calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has increased, with strong economic data complicating the outlook for potential rate reductions [10] Group 5: Gold Price Forecasts - Several institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting spot gold prices could exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, and Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [11] - The potential impact of U.S. government shutdown risks and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold's long-term investment appeal [11]

当地时间9月26日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨299.97点，涨幅0.65%；纳指涨0.44%；标普500指数涨0.59%。 热门科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨超4%，微软、亚马逊涨幅不足1%，甲骨文跌超2%。金属与采矿、汽车股涨幅居前，世纪铝业涨超7%，泛美白银、美国黄 金公司、黄金资源涨超4%，Lucid、福特汽车涨超3%。加密矿企、稀土概念跌幅居前，Hut 8跌近5%，TeraWulf跌超1%。艺电收涨15%，创最近六年来最 佳单日表现，报道称沙特主权财富基金PIF和银湖资本考虑将其私有化。 特斯拉报440.40美元，涨幅4.02%，市值为14643.96亿美元。其市值一夜增加约566亿美元（约合人民币4038亿元）。 有评论指出，美国8月核心PCE通胀基本维持稳定，这可能会让美联储继续保持此前既定的降息节奏。美国商务部报告称，8月PCE物价指数环比上涨 0.3%，年化整体通胀率为2.7%。剔除食品和能源后更受关注的核心PCE物价指数环比上升0.2%，年化率为2.9%。 尽管美联储的通胀目标是2%，但这些数据不太可能改变政策制定者的方针——他们上周曾表示预计在年底前还将进行两次25个基点的降息。 美联储官 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases after a period of high volatility, with the upcoming PCE price index being a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. The Reuters survey anticipates a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for August PCE [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut, the dollar has been appreciating slightly. Despite expectations of further rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, the pace of these cuts will largely depend on upcoming economic data [3] - Federal Reserve officials continue to comment on the recent rate cut decision, with varying opinions on the necessity and speed of further cuts. The labor market remains a focal point, with recent unemployment claims data indicating a decrease, suggesting that companies are hesitant to lay off employees despite economic uncertainties [4] Market Trends - The current trend for silver is characterized as a price consolidation phase, with support and resistance levels being monitored for potential trading strategies. The dollar index is also showing signs of a fluctuating downward trend [6][9] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of a consolidation range, with support identified at 44.30. The MACD indicator indicates a downward trend, and market activity appears to be decreasing, warranting cautious trading approaches [9]

Joining us now with more on the market, Stephen Parker, JP Morgan uh private bank, co-head of global uh investment strategy. I I'll I guess I'll start with in a similar vein to with with Katie Stockton. She's um obviously looks at at technicals.You're more fundamentals. There's probably no one that that doesn't or hasn't heard that the market is fully valued. I think even uh Jay Powell intimated as much the other day also said that that doesn't necessarily mean that the market's ready to go down either beca ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - US consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since May, with a preliminary index of 55.4 for September, down 4.8% from August and down 21% year-on-year [1][4] - The current economic conditions index for September is 61.2, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, while the consumer expectations index is at 51.8, down 7.3% month-on-month and 30.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Domestic economic conditions in China remain stable, with industrial production growing by 5.2% year-on-year in August [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - There has been a continuous inflow of imported copper, but expectations for domestic copper supply are decreasing, leading to a build-up in electrolytic copper inventories [1][4] - As of September 15, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons, with inventory rising in regions outside Shanghai [3] - The average price for SMM 1 electrolytic copper is reported between 80,780 and 81,100 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in the premium over the previous trading day [3][5] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - The supply of aluminum has seen a slight increase, while terminal consumption is recovering; however, high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption [1][4] - As of September 15, the domestic mainstream consumption area for electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 63.7 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous week [3][6] - The price for SMM A00 aluminum is reported at 20,950 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan from the previous trading day [3][6]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 15 日 黄金：下修非农就业 白银：突破上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪金2510 | 834.22 | 0.41% | 834.00 | 0.39% | | | 黄金T+D | 830.34 | 0.51% | 830.50 | 0.12% | | | Comex黄金2510 | 3680.70 | 0.20% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3642.37 | 0.30% | - | - | | | 沪银2510 | 10035 | 2.42% | 10051.00 | 1.22% | | ...

与此同时，美国消费者信心指数在9月份跌至近年来的低点。密歇根大学的调查显示，消费者信心指数 为55.4，比上月下降4.8%，同比下降幅度达到21%。消费者当前经济状况指数和预期指数皆呈下降趋 势，进一步表明美国经济面临诸多挑战，包括商业环境不确定性以及劳动力市场和通胀风险日益增加。 反映消费者对经济的担忧所带来的影响不能忽视。调查显示近60%的消费者担忧关税问题，这表明贸易 政策继续在影响公众的经济信心。消费者对未来一年通胀预期保持不变，但长期通胀预期连续两个月上 升，这可能会影响未来经济政策和消费者行为。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：美股情报站） 据知情人士透露，苹果公司内资深人工智能高管Robby Walker计划离职。这一消息引发了科技界的广泛 关注。作为直接向苹果人工智能主管John Giannandrea汇报的少数高管之一，Walker曾负责Siri项目。今 年早些时候，这一职责转移至软件主管Craig Federighi名下，然而Siri的改进因推迟而面临挑战。在卸任 后，Walker转而负责开发新的人工智能网页搜索技术，该项目旨在竞争市场上其他人工智能系统如 Perplexity和ChatGPT，计 ...