Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the conclusion of the UK-US trade agreement, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs have eased, but the Sino-US tariff negotiations are still unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US began in Oman. Fundamentally, global oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, US commercial crude oil inventories are lower than in previous years, and the number of US shale oil drilling rigs has declined rapidly after the oil price drop. Recently, the BW spread has narrowed. Global refinery profits are recovering, but actual refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates have recovered first, and the inventory of US gasoline and diesel is still low. Coupled with the elimination of refining capacity limiting supply, there is support for gasoline and diesel cracking. It is expected to maintain a pattern of strong gasoline and weak diesel in the near future. Domestic refinery operating rates have slightly declined, gasoline and diesel inventories have significantly decreased, and refinery profits have improved. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement of macro sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the US-Iran negotiations achieve unexpected progress. In the medium and long term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply-demand surplus [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From April 30 to May 9, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased from $58.21 to $61.02, an increase of $1.11; Brent crude oil prices increased from $61.06 to $63.91, an increase of $1.07; Dubai crude oil prices increased from $67.74 to $63.83, an increase of $0.83. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - **US-Russia Gas Negotiations**: Washington and Moscow officials are discussing US assistance in resuming Russian gas sales to Europe. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Europe significantly reduced Russian gas imports, causing Gazprom to lose $7 billion in the following year. Trump's push for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict increases the possibility of a thaw in gas relations [4]. - **ConocoPhillips Cuts Spending**: ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion (calculated at the midpoint of its guidance range) while keeping its production forecast unchanged after crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel. WTI crude oil has fallen about 18% this year and is still below $60. US oil company executives said they need an average oil price of $65 to make a profit [4]. - **Citi Lowers Brent Forecast**: Citi Research lowered its three - month forecast for Brent crude oil from $60 to $55 per barrel due to the restart of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the market supply will increase, and Brent prices may fall to $50. If no agreement is reached, prices may rise to $70 or higher. Citi believes the probability of a final agreement is 60% [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week Ended May 2)**: US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a decrease of 0.46%; the four - week average supply of US oil products was 19.756 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.15%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.056 million barrels per day, an increase of 558,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week; EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels (expected - 1.6 million barrels, previous value - 4.003 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 937,000 barrels) [5][6]. - **China's Oil Market**: This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased. China's gasoline and diesel production both declined, including both major and local refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel both declined and did not reach the production - sales balance. This week, the inventory of gasoline and diesel decreased by more than 4%, including major refineries, local refineries, and social inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries rebounded month - on - month [6].

Price Overview - As of May 6, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong ranges from 3450 to 3690 CNY per ton, with prices in East China at 3500 to 3570 CNY and in South China at 3330 to 3500 CNY [1] - On May 7, the national asphalt price list shows various brands and their respective prices, with the average price for 70 asphalt around 3560 to 3590 CNY per ton in Shandong province [2] Futures Market - The main contract for asphalt futures closed at 3432.00 CNY per ton on May 7, reflecting a 2.66% increase, with a daily trading volume of 233,614 contracts [2] Inventory and Production - As of May 6, the total asphalt inventory across 104 social warehouses nationwide is 1.917 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [2] - The operating rate for downstream asphalt production has increased, with road asphalt production rising by 4.5 percentage points to 24.5%, although it remains at a relatively low level [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Galaxy Futures, the rebound in oil prices and the relatively stable supply-demand fundamentals for asphalt have led to a recovery in prices, with the asphalt/oil price spread widening [4] - Refinery profits are improving, and attention is drawn to the potential for supply recovery and the sustainability of demand, with a short-term outlook indicating a fluctuating market for asphalt [4]