Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The price of BU main contract on 7/10 was 3629, with a daily change of 6 and an interval change of 58 [4]. - The price of BU06 on 7/10 was 3370, with a daily change of 16 and an interval change of 100 [4]. - The price of BU09 on 7/10 was 3629, with a daily change of 6 and an interval change of 58 [4]. - The price of BU12 on 7/10 was 3447, with a daily change of 7 and an interval change of 70 [4]. - The price of BU03 on 7/10 was 3384, with a daily change of 1 and an interval change of 69 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on 7/10 was 176,852, a decrease of 46,382 from the previous day and a decrease of 30,278 from the interval [4]. - The open interest on 7/10 was 471,972, an increase of 2,951 from the previous day and a decrease of 12,902 from the interval [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end price in the Shandong market on 7/10 was 3580, a decrease of 20 from the previous day and an increase of 20 from the interval [4]. - The low - end price in the East China market on 7/10 was 3670, with no daily change and an increase of 20 from the interval [4]. - The low - end price in the South China market on 7/10 was 3600, with no daily and interval change [4]. - The low - end price in the North China market on 7/10 was 3750, with no daily and interval change [4]. - The low - end price in the Northeast market on 7/10 was 3850, with no daily change and a decrease of 50 from the interval [4]. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis on 7/10 was - 49, a decrease of 26 from the previous day and a decrease of 38 from the interval [4]. - The East China basis on 7/10 was 41, a decrease of 6 from the previous day and a decrease of 38 from the interval [4]. - The South China basis on 7/10 was - 29, a decrease of 6 from the previous day and a decrease of 28 from the interval [4]. - The 03 - 06 spread on 7/10 was 14, a decrease of 15 from the previous day and a decrease of 31 from the interval [4]. - The 06 - 09 spread on 7/10 was - 259, an increase of 10 from the previous day and an increase of 42 from the interval [4]. - The 09 - 12 spread on 7/10 was 182, a decrease of 1 from the previous day and a decrease of 12 from the interval [4]. - The 12 - 03 spread on 7/10 was 63, an increase of 6 from the previous day [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread on 7/10 was - 97, a decrease of 21 from the previous day and a decrease of 59 from the interval [4]. - The asphalt Ma Rui profit on 7/10 was - 157, a decrease of 18 from the previous day and a decrease of 53 from the interval [4]. - The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on 7/10 was 419, a decrease of 10 from the previous day and a decrease of 46 from the interval [4]. - The import profit (South Korea - East China) on 7/10 was - 153, with no daily change and an increase of 12 from the interval [4]. - The import profit (Singapore - South China) on 7/10 was - 961, an increase of 2 from the previous day and a decrease of 7 from the interval [4]. Related Prices - The Brent crude oil price on 7/10 was 70.2, with no daily change and an increase of 1.4 from the interval [4]. - The gasoline market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 7831, with no daily change and an increase of 81 from the interval [4]. - The diesel market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 6788, a decrease of 23 from the previous day and a decrease of 19 from the interval [4]. - The residue oil market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 3625, an increase of 10 from the previous day and a decrease of 15 from the interval [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices rose significantly, reaching a multi - year single - day maximum increase on Friday with an enlarged intraday amplitude. The geopolitical risk soared due to the Israel - Iran conflict, and the risk of oil price increase remains high. The fundamental support for oil prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it is expected that the absolute price will fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From June 10 - 16, 2025, WTI decreased by 1.21, BRENT decreased by 1.00, and DUBAI decreased by 0.59. SC increased by 11.70, and OMAN increased by 0.03. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3]. 2. Daily News - Germany, France, and the UK are ready to talk with Iran about its nuclear program. Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israel. Trump warned Iran and said the US could facilitate an Iran - Israel agreement. Iran will no longer notify the IAEA in advance about its nuclear activities. Israel's actions against Iran are expected to last for weeks with US acquiescence, and US military intervention may lead to a qualitative change in the Middle - East situation [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 6, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 3644000 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 40300 barrels, and the SPR increased by 23700 barrels. US domestic crude production increased by 20000 barrels per day. The number of oil rigs decreased by 3 to 439, and the number of fracturing wells decreased by 4 to 182. US EIA gasoline inventories increased by 1504000 barrels. In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, and both gasoline and diesel production increased. Refinery profits showed a rebound and recovery trend [4][5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices. The risk of oil price increase remains high due to the lack of an end - condition for Israel's attacks and Iran's counter - attacks. The fundamental support for oil prices is weak, but there are also some positive factors such as the start of domestic refinery operations and the expectation of reserve replenishment. It is expected that the absolute price will fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices have shown a strong performance, with the fundamental situation tightening on a sequential basis. Geopolitical risks have escalated, leading to increased fluctuations in crude oil spreads and stronger absolute prices. WTI has outperformed Brent and Dubai. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have increased, while US commercial inventories have decreased more than expected, and the number of US oil rigs has significantly declined. On the negative side, leading data on the US job market shows signs of cooling, and the latest apparent demand for US gasoline and diesel has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of terminal product demand. This week, refining margins in Europe and the US have declined on a sequential basis, while those in Asia have remained high. Saudi Arabia and other countries have lowered their official selling prices to Asia in July to multi - year lows, and there are market rumors that Saudi Arabia intends to push OPEC+ to continue increasing production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to consolidate market share. Recently, the valuation repair of Brent and WTI crude oil has been realized, and the focus has shifted to whether geopolitical risks (such as the US - Iran and Israel - Palestine situations) will substantially escalate. High - altitude opportunities for absolute prices can be monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle East tensions have sharply escalated, with the US partially evacuating its personnel. Trump has expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran nuclear deal, and Iran has warned of potential strikes on US military bases. The US military has authorized the voluntary departure of military families from the Middle East, and the scale of the US mission in Iraq has been reduced. Israel's military has been on high alert, and the UK has warned of potential "military activity escalation." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander - in - Chief has stated that upgraded missiles are ready for any battle [3][4][5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 90,000 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a decrease of 0.63%), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (an increase of 0.2%). This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with major refineries seeing increases in both, and independent refineries seeing decreases in both. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries increased for gasoline and decreased for diesel. Gasoline and diesel inventories in China decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a sequential basis, and that of local refineries improved on a sequential basis [6]. 3.3 Weekly Data - From June 5 to June 11, 2025, WTI increased by 3.17, Brent increased by 2.90, and Dubai increased by 1.93. SC decreased by 1.70, and Oman increased by 2.61. Other related products also showed various price changes, such as a 20.00 decrease in domestic gasoline prices and a 192.00 decrease in domestic gasoline - Brent differentials [3].

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20 cents to settle at $62.69 per barrel, a gain of 0.32%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 13 cents to settle at $65.54 per barrel, a gain of 0.20%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 0.87% at 465 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump said he had a 2 - hour call with Putin, and "Russia - Ukraine will immediately start negotiations for a cease - fire and more importantly, to end the war". Putin said the call was rich and candid, and Russia advocates a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis [1] - Goldman Sachs is cautious about the oil price outlook. It maintains its forecast for Brent/WTI crude oil prices at $60/$56 for the rest of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, lower than forward prices. It has raised its forecast for Iranian crude supply to 3.6 million barrels per day from the second half of 2025 to 2026 [1] - The EU Commission's trade commissioner will propose to G7 finance ministers to lower the current $60 per - barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. EU officials suggest reducing it to $50 per barrel [1] - Trump's tax - cut bill, worth trillions of dollars, got approval from a key House committee, but faced obstacles earlier due to demands from conservative Republicans [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Global refinery profits have significantly recovered recently, with gasoline and fuel oil crack spreads rebounding and diesel crack spreads also rising. Reasons include supply disruptions at refineries, strong demand in Africa and Latin America, reduced exports from some major countries, and refinery closures in the US and Europe. In the short - term, crack spreads will remain firm [2] Group 3: Strategy - The short - term outlook for oil prices is neutral, and a medium - term short position is recommended [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from May 7 - 13, 2025 - WTI crude oil rose from $58.07 to $63.67, an increase of $1.72 [3] - BRENT crude oil increased from $61.12 to $66.63, a gain of $1.67 [3] - DUBAI crude oil went up from $61.53 to $65.45, rising by $1.06 [3] - SC decreased by 2.80, OMAN increased by 1.12, and SC - BRT dropped by 1.98 [3] - Domestic gasoline price increased by 30.00, and domestic diesel price rose by 59.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT decreased, Singapore 380 - BRT changed, and上期所FU - BRT decreased by 10.45 [3] -上期所BU - BRT decreased by 11.21, and HH natural gas decreased by 0.030 [3] - BFO increased by 1.06 [3] Group 3: Daily News - BofA: Saudi Aramco can quickly increase oil production at low cost, potentially raising daily output from about 9.4 million barrels to about 12 million barrels within weeks, with an estimated $12 billion increase in operating cash flow for every additional 1 million barrels per day [3] - Trump: Hopes to reach an agreement with Iran; if Iran refuses, will apply maximum pressure and reduce Iranian oil exports to zero [4] - Goldman Sachs: Given recent trade easing, expects an upward risk of about $3 - $4 per barrel for Brent/WTI crude oil prices in the remainder of 2025, with forecasts of $60/$56; 2026 price forecasts are $56/$52 [4] - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9 was 4.287 million barrels, against an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels [4] - Iran - EU nuclear talks: Iran will hold talks with European parties in Istanbul on Friday. European powers may start the "snap - back sanctions" in August if no substantial agreement is reached [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US EIA Data for the Week Ending May 2 - US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day [6] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day [6] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decline [6] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase [6] - US EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.6 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.003 million barrels [6] - US EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels, against an expected - 1.271 million barrels and a previous value of 937,000 barrels [6] China's Market Situation - This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries declined. China's gasoline and diesel production decreased, with both major and local refineries seeing drops in production and sales rates, and none achieving production - sales balance. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased by over 4%. Major refineries' and local refineries' comprehensive profits rebounded [7] Group 5: Weekly View - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the Anglo - American trade agreement reached, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs eased, but the China - US tariff negotiation remains unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of Iran - US nuclear talks started in Oman [7] - Fundamentally, global oil products seasonally accumulate inventory. US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years. After the oil price decline, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs decreased rapidly, and the BW spread narrowed recently. Global refinery profits are recovering, but refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates recovered first, and US gasoline and diesel inventories are still low. With refining capacity elimination restricting supply, gasoline and diesel cracking has support, and it is expected to maintain a situation of stronger gasoline than diesel in the near term [7] - In China, refinery operating rates decreased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly, and refinery profits recovered. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement in macro - sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran - US talks achieve unexpected progress. In the long - term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the conclusion of the UK-US trade agreement, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs have eased, but the Sino-US tariff negotiations are still unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US began in Oman. Fundamentally, global oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, US commercial crude oil inventories are lower than in previous years, and the number of US shale oil drilling rigs has declined rapidly after the oil price drop. Recently, the BW spread has narrowed. Global refinery profits are recovering, but actual refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates have recovered first, and the inventory of US gasoline and diesel is still low. Coupled with the elimination of refining capacity limiting supply, there is support for gasoline and diesel cracking. It is expected to maintain a pattern of strong gasoline and weak diesel in the near future. Domestic refinery operating rates have slightly declined, gasoline and diesel inventories have significantly decreased, and refinery profits have improved. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement of macro sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the US-Iran negotiations achieve unexpected progress. In the medium and long term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply-demand surplus [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From April 30 to May 9, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased from $58.21 to $61.02, an increase of $1.11; Brent crude oil prices increased from $61.06 to $63.91, an increase of $1.07; Dubai crude oil prices increased from $67.74 to $63.83, an increase of $0.83. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - **US-Russia Gas Negotiations**: Washington and Moscow officials are discussing US assistance in resuming Russian gas sales to Europe. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Europe significantly reduced Russian gas imports, causing Gazprom to lose $7 billion in the following year. Trump's push for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict increases the possibility of a thaw in gas relations [4]. - **ConocoPhillips Cuts Spending**: ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion (calculated at the midpoint of its guidance range) while keeping its production forecast unchanged after crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel. WTI crude oil has fallen about 18% this year and is still below $60. US oil company executives said they need an average oil price of $65 to make a profit [4]. - **Citi Lowers Brent Forecast**: Citi Research lowered its three - month forecast for Brent crude oil from $60 to $55 per barrel due to the restart of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the market supply will increase, and Brent prices may fall to $50. If no agreement is reached, prices may rise to $70 or higher. Citi believes the probability of a final agreement is 60% [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week Ended May 2)**: US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a decrease of 0.46%; the four - week average supply of US oil products was 19.756 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.15%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.056 million barrels per day, an increase of 558,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week; EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels (expected - 1.6 million barrels, previous value - 4.003 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 937,000 barrels) [5][6]. - **China's Oil Market**: This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased. China's gasoline and diesel production both declined, including both major and local refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel both declined and did not reach the production - sales balance. This week, the inventory of gasoline and diesel decreased by more than 4%, including major refineries, local refineries, and social inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries rebounded month - on - month [6].

Price Overview - As of May 6, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong ranges from 3450 to 3690 CNY per ton, with prices in East China at 3500 to 3570 CNY and in South China at 3330 to 3500 CNY [1] - On May 7, the national asphalt price list shows various brands and their respective prices, with the average price for 70 asphalt around 3560 to 3590 CNY per ton in Shandong province [2] Futures Market - The main contract for asphalt futures closed at 3432.00 CNY per ton on May 7, reflecting a 2.66% increase, with a daily trading volume of 233,614 contracts [2] Inventory and Production - As of May 6, the total asphalt inventory across 104 social warehouses nationwide is 1.917 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [2] - The operating rate for downstream asphalt production has increased, with road asphalt production rising by 4.5 percentage points to 24.5%, although it remains at a relatively low level [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Galaxy Futures, the rebound in oil prices and the relatively stable supply-demand fundamentals for asphalt have led to a recovery in prices, with the asphalt/oil price spread widening [4] - Refinery profits are improving, and attention is drawn to the potential for supply recovery and the sustainability of demand, with a short-term outlook indicating a fluctuating market for asphalt [4]