Group 1 - The overall economy has shown resilience despite facing uncertainties [1] - The risks associated with the Federal Reserve's responsibilities of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment are balanced [1] - The FOMC's monetary policy is in a favorable position, allowing for patience and observation [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Design and Implementation - Central banks utilize policy interest rates to influence market funding costs through adjustments to benchmark rates [2] - The interest rate corridor mechanism sets deposit facility rates (lower bound) and lending facility rates (upper bound) to guide market interest rates within a range [3] - Quantitative easing involves purchasing government bonds or mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanding to $9 trillion in 2020 [4] - In response to high inflation, the Federal Reserve initiated a balance sheet reduction plan in June 2022, selling assets at a rate of $95 billion per month [5] Group 2: Price Stability and Inflation Management - Many central banks adopt a symmetric inflation target of 2%, allowing for short-term fluctuations but requiring medium-term anchoring [6] - The Reserve Bank of India has set an inflation tolerance band of 4%±2% to accommodate the high volatility characteristic of emerging markets [7] - The Bank of Japan introduced a 2% inflation target in 2013, permitting "ultra-loose monetary policy to continue until stability is achieved" [8] - Core CPI is monitored to exclude food and energy prices, reducing short-term volatility interference [9] - In 2023, service sector inflation in the Eurozone reached 5.6%, prompting the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates [9] Group 3: Extended Functions Beyond Price Stability - Central banks act as financial stability maintainers, with the Bank of England requiring banks to increase capital reserves during economic overheating through countercyclical capital buffers [12] - The Federal Reserve conducts annual stress tests on large banks, with 2023 tests indicating that 23 banks could withstand a 10% unemployment rate shock [12] - The Federal Reserve processes an average of $3 trillion in payments daily through real-time gross settlement systems, ensuring zero-delay settlement for large transactions [13] - In 2023, the transaction volume of China's digital yuan pilot expanded to 1.8 trillion yuan across 26 cities [14] Group 4: Challenges in Policy Transmission - The zero lower bound constraint limits traditional tools when policy interest rates approach zero, necessitating reliance on unconventional tools [16] - The energy crisis in 2022 led to imported inflation in the Eurozone reaching 10.6%, surpassing local economic overheating levels [17] - The rise of digital currencies like Bitcoin undermines the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, prompting central banks to accelerate the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [18] - New Zealand's central bank became the first to incorporate climate risk into financial stability assessments, requiring banks to disclose the carbon intensity of their loan portfolios [18] Group 5: Historical Policy Missteps - The Federal Reserve's misjudgment of inflation as a temporary phenomenon in the 1970s led to a CPI peak of 13.5% in 1980 due to delayed interest rate hikes [19] - The Swiss National Bank's sudden cancellation of the euro/franc 1.20 floor in 2015 caused a 41% spike in the exchange rate, resulting in over $1 billion in forex market losses [19] - The Bank of England's rapid interest rate hikes in 2022 triggered a liquidity crisis in pension funds, forcing a temporary resumption of quantitative easing [19] Conclusion - The role of modern central banks has evolved from being mere "inflation fighters" to becoming "omni-stabilizers" of the economic system, facing challenges from the rise of digital currencies, geopolitical instability, and accelerated climate transitions [UNFX]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Musalem, emphasizes that if inflation expectations become unstable, the priority of its policy should be to ensure price stability [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policy framework is focused on maintaining price stability as a primary objective [1] - Musalem's comments highlight the importance of managing inflation expectations to prevent economic instability [1] - The statement reflects the Fed's commitment to addressing inflation concerns in its monetary policy decisions [1]

本报记者 闫立良 "随着外部环境急剧变化，同时国内房地产市场尚未企稳、物价运行持续低迷，二季度货币政策优先目标将逐步过渡到稳 就业稳增长，宽松空间明显打开。"5月20日，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，预计年内 降准降息仍有空间，但力度及节奏将根据中美关税进展、二季度出口和经济表现等关键变量相机抉择。 促进价格水平合理回归 5月7日，央行出台包括降准降息、创设并加力实施系列结构性货币政策工具在内的一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 蔡伟认为，一季度出于前期增量政策效果仍在逐渐显现、外部环境尚不明朗以及优先稳定汇率波动风险和银行息差压力等 综合考量，央行对于货币政策的总量操作较为克制，保持"适度宽松"的政策取向不变。 在后续可能的降准降息空间释放上，蔡伟分析称，降准方面，央行将配合财政协同发力，并可能通过加大买断式逆回购等 进一步补充流动性。降息方面，央行将综合考量国内外经济形势、利率风险与金融市场波动等因素。 最近三期货币政策执行报告均强调"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平"。蔡伟 表示，这说明当前物价是央行的重要关注指标。 在央行5月9日发布的 ...

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：考虑到我们面临的物价稳定风险的平衡状况，季度降息的速度过快。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain caution in its interest rate actions, emphasizing the need for stability in the current economic environment [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Actions - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that interest rates can be kept at current levels to ensure price stability [1] - The ECB has already cut rates seven times, with economists and markets anticipating a further 25 basis point cut in June [1] - While several policymakers support this potential cut, Schnabel refrained from confirming any specific actions, stating that future developments remain uncertain [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The uncertainty stemming from the Trump trade war casts a shadow over the economic outlook [1] - Schnabel highlighted the significant differences in the short-term and medium-term impacts on inflation, noting that falling energy prices and global economic slowdown should suppress inflation in the short term [1] - However, she warned that the situation could reverse in the medium term [1] Group 3: Currency Confidence - The recent appreciation of the euro should be interpreted as a signal of confidence in the currency [1] - Schnabel urged Europe to seize the opportunity presented by this confidence in the euro [1]

被视为下一任美联储主席热门人选的前美联储理事凯文.沃什警告称，如果美联储无法防止因关税引发 的物价上涨演变为持续性通胀，那么责任应由央行承担，其信誉也将受到严重挑战。 沃什在斯坦福大学的一场活动上表示："如果中央银行声称外部因素导致物价水平上升，并由此驱动通 胀结果，那某种程度上是在承认自身失职。"他进一步指出："这其实是在说，美联储缺乏足够的公信力 去阻止通胀发生。" 随着特朗普推动新一轮关税政策，经济学家普遍预期关税将推高商品价格，并可能拖慢经济增长速度。 对此，美联储主席鲍威尔以及多位官员已多次表达担忧，认为关税带来的不确定性可能引发通胀和失业 的双重风险。 回顾近年来的通胀演变，美国通胀在2021年迅速攀升，当时正值新冠疫情冲击全球供应链，企业在需求 激增中难以应对，物价节节攀升。美联储当时曾判断通胀是"暂时性的"，这一判断后来被证明过于乐 观。随后在2022年和2023年，美联储大幅加息以遏制通胀。 目前美联储所偏好的通胀指标，核心个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)自2022年高点超过7%之后大幅回落， 但仍未回归其2%的长期目标。 政策制定者强调，他们的关键任务是引导和稳定公众的通胀预期，防止因关税造 ...

威廉姆斯表示："如今，无论经济冲击、政府政策变化，还是全球化与去全球化的波动如何，央行都认 识到维持物价稳定是它们的职责：它们是物价稳定的捍卫者。"他补充道，通过有效履行其使命，"央行 赢得了公众的信任"。 尽管失业率上升和通胀风险加剧，美联储官员本周仍决定维持基准利率不变。政策制定者正在等待更明 确的数据，以评估大规模关税措施对经济的实际影响。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，将通胀预期稳定在政策制定者目标附近是央行工作的"基石"。 威廉姆斯在准备于冰岛雷克雅未克会议上发表的讲话稿中指出，对央行官员而言，一个"关键教训"就 是"保持良好锚定的通胀预期的重要性，特别是在不确定性极高时期"。 威廉姆斯此番表态正值美联储面临其双重使命——维持物价稳定和实现充分就业——可能产生冲突的关 键时刻。根据纽约联储最新调查，4月美国消费者对中期通胀预期急剧上升，同时家庭对就业市场的看 法也趋于悲观。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普正持续向政策制定者施压，要求通过降息来抵消关税政策对经济增长和劳动 力市场的负面影响。 威廉姆斯的言论表明，他特别关注美联储使命中的通胀管理职责。这与美联储主席鲍威尔近期表态相呼 应。鲍威尔曾强调，没有价格稳 ...

Group 1: Price Stability and Trends - The supply of essential goods in Anhui province is sufficient and prices remain stable ahead of the May Day holiday, with 577 "benefit vegetable basket" stores operational [1] - Grain and oil prices are generally stable, with retail prices for four types of rice and flour remaining at 2.49 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged from last week and last month [1] - Pork prices are under pressure, with retail prices for various cuts averaging 16.16 yuan, 12.24 yuan, and 14.95 yuan per 500 grams, showing a week-over-week decline of 1.1% and 0.89% for lean pork and back seat pork respectively [1] Group 2: Meat and Vegetable Price Movements - Beef, lamb, and chicken prices show slight fluctuations, with retail prices for beef, lamb, and chicken at 34.35 yuan, 31.51 yuan, and 11.22 yuan per 500 grams respectively, with chicken down 0.53% week-over-week [1] - Vegetable prices have been declining for four consecutive weeks, with an average price of 2.19 yuan per 500 grams, down 3.52% from last week and 5.6% from the same month last year [2] - Egg prices have slightly increased to 4.37 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.69% from last week and 0.46% from the same month last year [3] Group 3: Fish Price Trends - Freshwater fish prices are stable with slight increases, as retail prices for crucian carp and silver carp are 13.06 yuan and 5.46 yuan per 500 grams respectively, showing week-over-week increases of 0.31% and 1.3% [3]