来源：读懂财经 ©读懂新能源原创/出品 作者：杨扬 编辑：夏益军 特斯拉活成了所有汽车股都羡慕的样子。 虽然业绩绝大部分都是由汽车业务贡献，但AI能力的溢出，让它孵化出了FSD、Robotaxi和人形机器人 等一系列愿景宏大、短期内又难以证伪的科技业务。 这也使特斯拉的身份悄然转变，从一家制造企业变成了科技公司。目前，特斯拉市盈率（TTM）高达 280倍，而全球销量第一的丰田仅8倍。 特斯拉打了个样，有没有其他汽车股也能成为"下一个汽车科技股"？ 国内新势力的科技属性也在增强，理想正视图成为一家"具身智能公司"，小鹏则试图通过已发布的机器 人和飞行汽车，布局"物理AI"。 那它们能成为中国版的特斯拉吗？ 本文持有以下观点： 1、汽车基本盘是支撑AI愿景的基础。转型科技公司需要巨大投入，这就要求新势力在红海竞争中必须 具备稳定的自我造血能力。只有证明销量可持续、利润能稳住，新势力才有向科技股升级的可能。 2、规模领先是跳板。与美国的技术创新驱动不同，国内企业的成功公式更多依托规模与成本优势实现 快速市场渗透。具身智能的终局大概率是消费级产品，规模领先的企业更有可能构筑竞争力，实现商业 化闭环。 "大家好，我是李 ...

Core Insights - The AI industry is entering a rapid change cycle, with 2025 being a pivotal year for the development of large models, particularly with the emergence of DeepSeek, which is reshaping the global landscape and promoting open-source initiatives [1][10][18] - The dual-core driving force of AI development is characterized by the United States and China, each following distinct paths, with key technologies accelerating towards engineering applications [1][10][11] - Despite advancements in model capabilities, challenges in real-world application remain prevalent, indicating a shift in focus from "large models" to "AI+" [1][10][19] Group 1: Global Large Model Landscape - The global large model development is driven by a dual-core approach, with the U.S. leading in closed-source models and China focusing on open-source models [10][11][13] - OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google represent the leading trio in the large model arena, each adopting differentiated strategic paths [17] - DeepSeek's emergence marks a significant breakthrough for China's large model development, showcasing the potential of open-source models [18][19] Group 2: Key Technological Evolution - The evolution of large models is marked by four major technological trends: native multimodal integration, reasoning capabilities, long context memory, and agentic AI [22][24] - Native multimodal architectures are replacing text-centric models, allowing for seamless integration of various modalities [23] - Reasoning capabilities are becoming a core feature of advanced models, enabling them to demonstrate their thought processes [24][26] Group 3: Industry Chain and Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure is still dominated by Nvidia, with a slow transition towards a multi-polar ecosystem despite the emergence of alternatives like Google’s TPU and AMD’s chips [47][48] - The AI industry is shifting from reliance on a few cloud providers to a more collaborative funding model, with Nvidia and OpenAI acting as dual cores driving the ecosystem [51][52] Group 4: Application Layer Opportunities - Large model companies are positioning themselves as "super assistants" while also aiming to control user entry points through various products and services [53][54] - Independent application companies can find opportunities in vertical markets that require deep industry understanding and complex workflow integration [55][56] - The evolution of AI applications is moving towards intelligent agents capable of autonomous operation, indicating a significant shift in application development paradigms [61][62]

邓思邈 李根 发自 纽凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 韩旭变了。 文远知行创始人、CEO韩旭，现在是 "全球Robotaxi第一股" 的董事长，并且刚实现了港交所挂牌上市——双重资本认可。 文远知行的Robotaxi落地也全球开花结果，通行八国。在广州、北京、南京、苏州、鄂尔多斯、阿布扎比、苏黎世、新加坡，都 有"WeRide"标识的无人驾驶出租车运营……按商业化落地的Robotaxi车队规模来排名，文远知行即便不是 全球最大也是最大之一 。 一度被百炼千锤的文远知行，现在可谓苦尽甘来。 但以诗人性情闻名的CEO韩旭，现在无意谈论"Robotaxi格局"、拒绝预测"X年后谁还能在牌桌上"，甚至表态Robotaxi也好任何AI黑科技落地 也好—— "少关注一些竞争对手，多关注一些市场和用户反馈。" 韩旭的变化不光是言辞之变，更早之前的 美股IPO上市 ，他甚至没去现场，朋友圈也找不到一张庆祝的纪念照片。港股挂牌去了，但没有典 型的上市庆祝，重点转发了一条 "三年不减持" 的公告，表明决心。 如果对文远知行堪称坚韧的创业历程熟悉，对韩旭"不服比一比"的耿直风格了解，就能感知到变化之大反差之强烈。 这些计 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中信建投指出，科技属性及新兴成长方向是核心主线。广州车展期间，多车企发布2026年新款车型，广 汽与华为合作品牌"启境"上市175天大定突破1.8万台，2026年华为新车大年值得关注。小鹏、广汽、长 安等车企展出自研机器人产品，2026年伴随特斯拉FSD V14、Robotaxi、Optimus等技术迭代量产，汽车 及机器人作为物理AI核心应用有望催生产业趋势拐点，整车科技属性或重估。 智能汽车ETF（159889）跟踪的是CS智汽车指数（930721），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及智能化技 术、汽车零部件及服务等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映智能汽车相关上市公司证券的整体 表现及行业发展趋势。 ...

小鹏汽车总部 在汽车圈，有一种不常见 的反转，叫"何小鹏式"的回归 。 如果将时间轴拨回两年前，那是小鹏汽车最至暗的时刻——包括G9上市的波折、外界对其组织与产品 节奏的质疑等等。但商业世界的魅力就在于其非线性：两年后的今天，小鹏以一个更清晰、更成熟的姿 态完成了反弹。 近日，小鹏发布了一份极具结构反转意义的Q3财报：营收203.8亿元，同比增长翻倍；交付量11.6万台 创历史新高；毛利率达到20.1%，这是智能电动车行业的关键转折点。 在残酷的汽车制造业，20%的毛利意味着企业不仅具备稳定的经营效率，也意味着其技术、品牌与产品 组合开始形成新的商业回报 。它意味着企业不再是在卖车糊口，而是真正跨入了"品牌溢价"和"健康造 血"的安全区。特斯拉跨越这条线用了十几年，比亚迪在规模效应的加持下才稳住阵脚，而小鹏在经历 了短暂的阵痛后，以一种垂直起跳的姿态站上了这条线。 这份财报不仅是财务层面的翻身仗，更是一种充满"野心" 的表现。它向世界宣告：那个曾经被贴上"理 工男"、"技术宅"标签的小鹏，已经彻底完成了基因突变——从一家苦哈哈的造车新势力，进化为全球 物理AI基础设施提供者。 拒绝"卖铁皮"的估值逻辑：华尔街 ...

Core Viewpoint - NIO's founder and CEO Li Bin emphasized the company's commitment to focusing solely on the automotive business and not diversifying into other sectors, particularly in response to the competitive landscape of new energy vehicles [2][12][14]. Financial Performance - NIO expressed confidence in achieving profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a target for full-year profitability in 2026 [6][11]. - In Q3 2025, NIO reported a significant reduction in adjusted net losses to 2.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 38% year-over-year and 33.7% quarter-over-quarter [7]. - The company’s revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is projected between 32.758 billion yuan and 34.039 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.9%, marking the highest quarterly gross margin in three years [8][9]. Product Strategy - NIO plans to launch new high-margin models, including the all-new ES8 and the L90, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth and improved gross margins [11]. - The company is focusing on organic growth and optimizing financial metrics such as gross profit and gross margin, with the current vehicle gross margin at 14.7%, up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [8][9]. Market Position - NIO currently holds less than 2% of the global automotive market share, indicating significant room for growth within the automotive sector [14]. - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on electric vehicle products and services, distancing itself from ventures into AI and robotics, despite recognizing the potential in those markets [12][16]. Competitive Landscape - NIO's strategy contrasts with other new energy vehicle manufacturers like XPeng and Li Auto, which are exploring AI and robotics, with XPeng's CEO claiming a 99.999% probability of achieving profitability in Q4 2025 [7][8]. - Li Bin acknowledged the potential of the robotics market but reiterated that NIO's current priority is to solidify its position in the automotive industry [16].

Core Insights - The performance of four listed new energy vehicle companies in China, namely Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, NIO, and Li Auto, shows significant divergence in their third-quarter results for 2025, highlighting the competitive landscape in the market [1] Sales Performance - Leap Motor achieved sales of 173,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, leading the market - Xpeng Motors sold 116,000 units, up 149.3% year-on-year - Li Auto's sales reached 93,200 units, a decline of 39.0% year-on-year - NIO sold 87,100 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [2] Revenue Data - Li Auto led in revenue with 27.4 billion yuan, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 36.2% - NIO reported revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year - Xpeng Motors generated revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a 101.8% increase year-on-year - Leap Motor's revenue was 19.45 billion yuan, reflecting a 97.3% year-on-year growth [2] Profitability - The profitability landscape showed "one profit and three losses" among the four companies - Leap Motor achieved a net profit of 150 million yuan, marking consecutive quarterly profitability - Xpeng Motors reported a net loss of 380 million yuan, significantly reduced from 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year - Li Auto recorded a net loss of 620 million yuan, down from a profit of 2.8 billion yuan last year - NIO's net loss was 3.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.2% from 5.06 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Gross Margin Analysis - Xpeng Motors led with a gross margin of 20.1%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year - Li Auto's gross margin was 16.3%, which adjusted for the recall costs of the Li MEGA model, would be 20.4% - Leap Motor reported a gross margin of 14.5%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year - NIO's gross margin stood at 13.9%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Technological Innovation - The four companies are actively pursuing technological innovations, particularly in the field of physical AI - Xpeng Motors plans to launch three Robotaxi models by 2026 and aims for mass production of humanoid robots by the end of the year - Li Auto has invested heavily in AI, with a monthly usage rate of its VLA driver model reaching 91% and an expected annual R&D expenditure of 12 billion yuan, with over 6 billion yuan allocated to AI [4] - Leap Motor emphasizes self-research and development, achieving significant advancements in core components and technologies [4] Competitive Strategies - NIO continues to enhance its battery swap technology to create a differentiated competitive advantage and is accelerating its overseas market expansion [5] - Industry experts indicate that the third-quarter financial data reflects a new phase of differentiated development among Chinese new energy vehicle companies, with technology innovation, cost control, and globalization being critical success factors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market has weak expectations for automotive stimulus policies and overall production and sales volume for next year, indicating a weakening of the automotive cyclical attributes. The core focus is shifting towards technology attributes and emerging growth directions [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market's anticipation for automotive stimulus policies and production/sales volume for next year is low [1] - The cyclical nature of the automotive industry is diminishing, leading to a focus on technology and growth sectors [1] Group 2: Future Trends - The year 2026 is highlighted as a significant year for new vehicles from Huawei, which is worth monitoring [1] - Companies like Xiaopeng, GAC, and Changan showcased self-developed robotic products during the auto show, indicating a shift towards integrating robotics in the automotive sector [1] - The upcoming technological iterations and mass production of Tesla's FSD V14, Robotaxi, and Optimus in 2026 are expected to create a turning point in the industry, with automotive and robotics as key applications of physical AI [1] - The technological attributes of automotive stocks may undergo a re-evaluation as these trends develop [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market has weak expectations for automotive stimulus policies and overall production and sales volume for next year, indicating a weakening of the automotive cyclical attributes. The core focus is on technology attributes and emerging growth directions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Guangzhou Auto Show has opened, with multiple automakers unveiling new models for 2026 [1] - GAC has launched the brand "Qijing" in collaboration with Huawei, marking the eighth brand created through partnerships between Huawei and automakers [1] - The Zun界 S800 has achieved over 18,000 pre-orders within 175 days of its launch, demonstrating rapid brand momentum [1] Group 2: Technological Developments - Companies such as XPeng, GAC, and Changan showcased self-developed robotic products during the auto show [1] - XPeng recently released its second-generation VLA large model and humanoid robot Iron, boosting market expectations [1] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be significant for new vehicle launches from Huawei, especially with the expected advancements in Tesla's FSD V14, Robotaxi, and Optimus technologies [1] Group 3: Industry Implications - The integration of automotive and robotics as core applications of physical AI is expected to catalyze a turning point in industry trends [1] - The technological attributes of automotive stocks may undergo reassessment as these advancements unfold [1]

Financial Performance - Li Auto reported total revenue of 27.4 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-over-year decline of 36.2% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 9.5% [1] - The company incurred a net loss of 624.4 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan in the same period last year and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan in the previous quarter [1] - Adjusted net loss was 359.7 million yuan, down from a net profit of 3.9 billion yuan year-over-year and 1.5 billion yuan quarter-over-quarter [1] Management Insights - Li Auto's management emphasized a return to a startup mentality and outlined a ten-year product and technology roadmap, focusing on AI-driven product design [2] - The company anticipates that products equipped with the M100 chip will be delivered in 2026, fundamentally transforming user experience [2][3] - The management highlighted the importance of time in transitioning to new technologies and products, indicating that significant improvements may take time to materialize [2] Technology and Product Development - Li Auto is focusing on self-research in the three core areas of electric drive, battery, and electronic control, achieving key breakthroughs [4] - The company has developed a full-stack self-research capability in battery technology, emphasizing fast charging and safety [4] - Li Auto plans to mass-produce its self-developed 5C battery next year, enhancing battery safety and user charging experience [4] Market Strategy and Challenges - The company is addressing supply chain challenges by implementing a dual-supplier model for battery supply starting November, aiming to increase monthly production capacity of the i6 model to 20,000 units by early next year [6] - Li Auto's management acknowledged the impact of reduced delivery volumes on cash flow, attributing it to delivery pressures and shortened supplier payment cycles [6][7] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth of the NEV market, projecting a penetration rate of 55%-60% by 2026 [8] Future Outlook - Li Auto is preparing for changes in replacement subsidy policies and increased vehicle purchase taxes, with strategies to mitigate short-term impacts while enhancing user value through technological advancements [8] - The 2026 L series will feature significant upgrades based on user feedback and core technology accumulation, aiming to strengthen the brand's position in the extended-range vehicle market [9][10] - The company is committed to delivering a historical breakthrough in delivery volumes in 2026, leveraging product strength and user value to navigate market uncertainties [8] AI and Innovation - Li Auto's VLA model has been fully deployed across its models, showing significant improvements in user experience and driving performance [12] - The company is continuously iterating on the VLA model, with upcoming updates aimed at enhancing safety and decision-making capabilities [12] - Li Auto is developing its self-research AI inference chip, expected to launch commercially next year, which aims to significantly reduce costs while improving performance [14]