Group 1: Market Performance - Gold stocks in Hong Kong showed strong performance, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Lingbao Gold rising over 8%, and Shandong Gold increasing over 6% [1] - In the A-share market, Huayu Mining and Sichuan Gold both rose over 6%, while Hunan Gold increased over 5% [2][3] Group 2: Gold Prices - International gold prices rebounded significantly, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,387.09 per ounce, marking the highest level since April 23 [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also surged, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry priced at 1,026 yuan per gram, an increase of 28 yuan from the previous day [5][6] Group 3: Influencing Factors - Key factors influencing gold prices include changes in Trump's tariff policies, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical risks [8] - The market is anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance the attractiveness of gold as an investment [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to rise due to persistent geopolitical risks and the potential for further interest rate cuts [9] - The combination of "rate cut trades" and ongoing trade tensions under the "Trump 2.0" scenario is expected to provide strong support for gold prices in the long term [9]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold price reached a high of 3500 USD before a short-term adjustment, with recent declines attributed to easing tariffs and geopolitical tensions [4][6] - The report highlights that the U.S. President's comments on the Federal Reserve and the signing of an executive order to alleviate tariffs on imported cars have contributed to market fluctuations [6][7] - The long-term outlook remains bullish for gold, driven by expected interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, with central bank purchases providing strong support for gold prices [7] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Recent price movements include a 1.69% drop in London spot gold to 3249.70 USD/oz and a 1.36% decline in Shanghai gold to 780.30 CNY/g, while silver prices saw slight increases [11][12] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and inflation rates, which could impact gold prices [6][7] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report notes a decrease in trading volumes for both gold and silver, with Shanghai gold holdings down 2.45% to 413,600 contracts and Shanghai silver holdings down 5.74% to 851,200 contracts [11][12] Domestic and International Price Differences - The gold price difference between domestic and international markets increased, with the domestic gold price gap rising to 28.43 CNY/g [62] Futures Basis - The international gold basis (spot-futures) increased to 2.30 USD/oz, while the domestic gold basis rose to -0.80 CNY/g [70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the differing core objectives behind the policies of China and the United States, leading to inconsistent market volatility between the two countries [3][4][10] - The report identifies the underlying issue of capital erosion in the U.S. economy, which is driving economic output outflow, rather than merely focusing on trade deficits and manufacturing repatriation [4][14][34] - The analysis reveals that by the end of 2024, the U.S. net foreign liabilities are projected to reach approximately $26.23 trillion, accounting for about 89.88% of nominal GDP, marking a historical high since the Bretton Woods system [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report outlines the core goals and pathways of "Trump 2.0," indicating that reducing trade deficits will take precedence, with expectations of continued high-tier tariffs and policies to promote domestic manufacturing [5][34][35] - The 4.25 Politburo meeting highlights the importance of "bottom-line thinking" in response to external shocks, focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and exports to other countries as key strategies [6][39][43] - Investment strategies should focus on "self-controllable" technology and military industries, domestic consumption, and gold as a hedge against external uncertainties, with specific sectors identified for investment opportunities [6][44][43]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various investment opportunities and risks associated with different sectors. Core Insights - The report highlights three major industry trends for the year: breakthroughs in private technology, defensive assets under stable policies, and safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical tensions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Private Technology Breakthroughs - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in China's technology sector, particularly in internet leaders, computing power, and robotics. The low-cost AI wave brought by DeepSeek is expected to significantly reduce AI deployment costs, benefiting downstream industries such as internet, new energy vehicles, and robotics. However, the overall diffusion of these technologies is limited, and investors should avoid excessively high valuations in small-cap tech stocks [6][7]. 2. Defensive Assets - Under stable macroeconomic policies, defensive assets such as bonds and dividend-paying stocks (e.g., utilities) are highlighted. The report anticipates that the overall profitability of A-shares will face significant growth pressure in 2025 due to new capacity pressures in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors, compounded by global trade risks. Dividend-paying assets are seen as stable with low valuations, providing strong safety margins [7][8]. 3. Safe-Haven Assets - The report discusses the potential rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, non-ferrous metals, and military-related industries due to increased geopolitical tensions and the "America First" policy under Trump 2.0. The weakening of the dollar and rising long-term inflation may enhance the appeal of gold as an anti-inflation asset. Additionally, the demand for construction machinery and equipment is expected to remain strong as countries expand their manufacturing capabilities [8].