华源证券近日发布贵金属双周报：黄金下跌后有所反弹，白银震荡上行。近两周，伦敦 现货黄金下跌1.08%至3331.90美元/盎司，上期所黄金下跌0.20%至777.06元/克，沪金持仓量 下跌2.57%至40.97万手；伦敦现货白银上涨2.09%至36.89美元/盎司，上期所白银上涨2.94% 至8919元/千克，沪银持仓量上涨2.97%至91.61万手；伦敦现货钯上涨8.13%至1130美元/盎 司，伦敦现货铂上涨9.49%至1384美元/盎司。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 2）众议院通过"大而美"税收与支出法案。美国国会众议院以218票赞成、214票反对的 表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。特朗普定于7月4日即美国"独 立日"当天签署该法案，使其生效。最终通过的法案版本长达869页，规模约3.4万亿美元。 根据美国国会预算办公室分析，延长减税措施在未来十年将带来超过4.5万亿美元支出成 本，参议院版本将使美国赤字增加近3.3万亿美元，债务上限提高5万亿美元。 3）非农数据超预期，强劲增长主要来自于政府部门，降息预期有所下降。美国劳工统 计局公布的数据显示，美国非农数据好于预期，失 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Trump 2.0 era represents a significant shift in U.S. domestic and foreign policy, characterized by aggressive economic measures and a departure from multilateralism [1][2][3] - Trump 2.0 is marked by a series of controversial actions, including large-scale deportations, threats to international territories, and the imposition of a "Trump tax" on over 60 countries, which has severely impacted the post-World War II global trade system [2][3] - The article suggests that Trump's approach is not merely chaotic but reflects a strategic intent to reshape the global order to prioritize U.S. interests, potentially leading to a fragmented international landscape [1][5][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for a "tax-debt" style of imperialism under Trump, where the U.S. seeks to impose high tariffs and sell interest-free bonds to other nations, aiming to alleviate its own economic burdens while extracting resources from global partners [6][7] - It highlights the changing dynamics of global power, with Russia regaining status as a significant player while Europe is losing its influence, as evidenced by the ongoing Ukraine conflict and the shifting geopolitical landscape [7][9] - China's position is portrayed as steadily rising, with its diplomatic stance during the Ukraine conflict earning it respect and recognition as a responsible global power, contrasting with the U.S. approach [9][10] Group 3 - The article posits that the world is moving towards a multipolar era, where the traditional U.S.-centric global order is disintegrating, leading to increased competition and potential conflicts among major powers [10][11] - It emphasizes the need for a new global order characterized by "competitive coexistence," where major powers engage in rivalry while avoiding total conflict, suggesting a complex interplay of competition and cooperation [13][14] - The future of the Trump 2.0 era remains uncertain, with questions about its lasting impact on global politics and economics, indicating a need for ongoing observation and analysis [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Gold is rated as "Buy" by Huayuan Securities, focusing on its dual business of gold and antimony, with strong growth potential driven by both internal and external factors [1][5]. Investment Highlights - Hunan Gold is one of the top ten gold producers in China and a global leader in antimony mining, with production capacities of 100 tons/year for gold and 40,000 tons/year for antimony, along with 25,000 tons/year for refined antimony [2]. - The company plans to produce 72.48 tons of gold and 39,500 tons of antimony in 2025, projecting a sales revenue of 43.5 billion yuan, representing significant increases of 56% for gold and 35% for antimony compared to 2024 [2]. - Historical performance shows steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.36% in revenue and 16.03% in net profit from 2021 to 2023. In 2024, revenue is expected to reach 27.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.46%, and net profit is projected to be 847 million yuan, up 73.08% [2]. Growth Drivers - Internal growth is supported by the construction of the Gansu Jiaxin project, which is expected to enhance gold production capacity. The project is set to begin construction in May 2024, with a design capacity of 500,000 tons/year [3]. - External growth opportunities include potential resource injections from the Pingjiang gold resource project, which could significantly boost production in the medium to long term [3]. Market Dynamics - The gold and silver prices are expected to rise due to factors such as "Trump 2.0" and interest rate cuts, providing strong upward momentum for gold prices [4]. - The antimony market is anticipated to face a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices expected to rise due to limited supply from major producers like China and Russia, alongside increasing demand from various industries [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.101 billion yuan, 2.403 billion yuan, and 2.781 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.59, 11.89, and 10.27 [5].

Group 1: C-REITs Market Overview - As of June 16, 2025, a total of 66 C-REITs have been listed, with a cumulative market value exceeding 200 billion yuan [2][7] - In 2024, 29 C-REITs were issued, with a total issuance scale of 65.6 billion yuan; the C-REITs total return index reached 1117.87 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 14.69% [2][7] - The approval of the first two data center public REITs marks an expansion of underlying asset types, indicating a shift towards new infrastructure assets [2][7][11] Group 2: Data Center REITs Characteristics - Data center REITs differ significantly from traditional property REITs in terms of operational models, revenue stability, and valuation logic [2][9] - The operational model of data centers relies heavily on specialized operational capabilities and continuous technological upgrades, with a focus on reducing energy consumption [8][9] - Revenue stability is enhanced by high customer concentration, long lease terms, and high customer retention rates, making them attractive to investors [9][10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to actively participate in the offline issuance of the newly approved data center REITs to secure potential premium returns during the initial listing phase [11][12] - The unique attributes of the data center REITs, such as advantageous locations and high energy efficiency, position them as scarce assets with clear growth drivers [11][12] Group 4: Fragrance and Flavor Industry Growth - The fragrance and flavor market in China is projected to grow from approximately 43.9 billion yuan in 2023 to over 50 billion yuan by 2026, driven by the booming cosmetics industry [18][19] - The cosmetics market is expected to increase from 516.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 579.1 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% in the ODM/OEM sector from 2017 to 2023 [18][19] Group 5: Gold Mining Sector Insights - The company, Zhaojin Mining, is positioned as a leading gold mining enterprise in China, with gold resources expected to reach 1,446.16 tons and production of 26.4 tons in 2024 [22][23] - The company's revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.97% and 250.49% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [24][26] - The strategic focus on both domestic and international gold mining projects is expected to enhance resource potential and profitability [25][26]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing protests in Los Angeles, highlighting the chaotic environment under "Trump 2.0" and the sense of disorder that has emerged [3][4]. - It contrasts the previous era of uncertainty with the current state of disorder, indicating that the new developments are disconnected from past rules and expectations [4]. - The article mentions various conflicts involving Trump, including his interactions with Zelensky, international trade, China, Harvard, and California, illustrating the breadth of issues under his administration [4]. Group 2 - The piece emphasizes that the term "disorder" encapsulates the current political climate, suggesting a lack of a coherent path forward compared to the previous uncertainty [4]. - It notes that the rapid succession of events and conflicts reflects a significant shift in the political landscape, with unpredictable outcomes becoming the norm [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [6][7] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices continuing to oscillate while silver has recently reached a new high. Over the past two weeks, the London spot gold price decreased by 0.08% to $3,339.90 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price increased by 0.40% to ¥783.24 per gram. The London spot silver price rose by 9.34% to $36.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver price increased by 7.10% to ¥8,850 per kilogram [6][11] - Key factors influencing the market include the escalation of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, the lack of substantial outcomes from the second round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data. The recent surge in silver prices to a 13-year high is attributed to these factors [6][7] - Looking ahead, the "Trump 2.0" narrative and the expectation of interest rate cuts are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices. The upcoming U.S. economic data from May to July will be crucial for market direction [6][7] Price Trends - Recent price movements show that the London spot gold price fell by 0.08% to $3,339.90 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price rose by 0.40% to ¥783.24 per gram. The London spot silver price increased by 9.34% to $36.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver price rose by 7.10% to ¥8,850 per kilogram [11][12] - The holding volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 7.56% to 421,700 contracts, while the holding volume for Shanghai silver increased by 13.29% to 1,039,500 contracts [11][12] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [6][7][25] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a potential for rate cuts in September [6][7] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report highlights the changes in holdings and trading volumes for both gold and silver, indicating a significant increase in silver holdings while gold holdings have decreased [46][52] Internal and External Price Differences - The internal and external price differences for gold and silver have shown an increase, with the gold internal-external price difference rising to ¥13.82 per gram and the silver internal-external price difference to ¥504.44 per kilogram [63]

Group 1: Market Performance - Gold stocks in Hong Kong showed strong performance, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Lingbao Gold rising over 8%, and Shandong Gold increasing over 6% [1] - In the A-share market, Huayu Mining and Sichuan Gold both rose over 6%, while Hunan Gold increased over 5% [2][3] Group 2: Gold Prices - International gold prices rebounded significantly, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,387.09 per ounce, marking the highest level since April 23 [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also surged, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry priced at 1,026 yuan per gram, an increase of 28 yuan from the previous day [5][6] Group 3: Influencing Factors - Key factors influencing gold prices include changes in Trump's tariff policies, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical risks [8] - The market is anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance the attractiveness of gold as an investment [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to rise due to persistent geopolitical risks and the potential for further interest rate cuts [9] - The combination of "rate cut trades" and ongoing trade tensions under the "Trump 2.0" scenario is expected to provide strong support for gold prices in the long term [9]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold price reached a high of 3500 USD before a short-term adjustment, with recent declines attributed to easing tariffs and geopolitical tensions [4][6] - The report highlights that the U.S. President's comments on the Federal Reserve and the signing of an executive order to alleviate tariffs on imported cars have contributed to market fluctuations [6][7] - The long-term outlook remains bullish for gold, driven by expected interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, with central bank purchases providing strong support for gold prices [7] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Recent price movements include a 1.69% drop in London spot gold to 3249.70 USD/oz and a 1.36% decline in Shanghai gold to 780.30 CNY/g, while silver prices saw slight increases [11][12] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and inflation rates, which could impact gold prices [6][7] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report notes a decrease in trading volumes for both gold and silver, with Shanghai gold holdings down 2.45% to 413,600 contracts and Shanghai silver holdings down 5.74% to 851,200 contracts [11][12] Domestic and International Price Differences - The gold price difference between domestic and international markets increased, with the domestic gold price gap rising to 28.43 CNY/g [62] Futures Basis - The international gold basis (spot-futures) increased to 2.30 USD/oz, while the domestic gold basis rose to -0.80 CNY/g [70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the differing core objectives behind the policies of China and the United States, leading to inconsistent market volatility between the two countries [3][4][10] - The report identifies the underlying issue of capital erosion in the U.S. economy, which is driving economic output outflow, rather than merely focusing on trade deficits and manufacturing repatriation [4][14][34] - The analysis reveals that by the end of 2024, the U.S. net foreign liabilities are projected to reach approximately $26.23 trillion, accounting for about 89.88% of nominal GDP, marking a historical high since the Bretton Woods system [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report outlines the core goals and pathways of "Trump 2.0," indicating that reducing trade deficits will take precedence, with expectations of continued high-tier tariffs and policies to promote domestic manufacturing [5][34][35] - The 4.25 Politburo meeting highlights the importance of "bottom-line thinking" in response to external shocks, focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and exports to other countries as key strategies [6][39][43] - Investment strategies should focus on "self-controllable" technology and military industries, domestic consumption, and gold as a hedge against external uncertainties, with specific sectors identified for investment opportunities [6][44][43]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various investment opportunities and risks associated with different sectors. Core Insights - The report highlights three major industry trends for the year: breakthroughs in private technology, defensive assets under stable policies, and safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical tensions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Private Technology Breakthroughs - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in China's technology sector, particularly in internet leaders, computing power, and robotics. The low-cost AI wave brought by DeepSeek is expected to significantly reduce AI deployment costs, benefiting downstream industries such as internet, new energy vehicles, and robotics. However, the overall diffusion of these technologies is limited, and investors should avoid excessively high valuations in small-cap tech stocks [6][7]. 2. Defensive Assets - Under stable macroeconomic policies, defensive assets such as bonds and dividend-paying stocks (e.g., utilities) are highlighted. The report anticipates that the overall profitability of A-shares will face significant growth pressure in 2025 due to new capacity pressures in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors, compounded by global trade risks. Dividend-paying assets are seen as stable with low valuations, providing strong safety margins [7][8]. 3. Safe-Haven Assets - The report discusses the potential rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, non-ferrous metals, and military-related industries due to increased geopolitical tensions and the "America First" policy under Trump 2.0. The weakening of the dollar and rising long-term inflation may enhance the appeal of gold as an anti-inflation asset. Additionally, the demand for construction machinery and equipment is expected to remain strong as countries expand their manufacturing capabilities [8].