Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating import tariffs imposed by the United States on various trading partners, particularly focusing on the significant increases in tariffs against China and other countries, which could lead to the highest actual tariff rates in over a century [2][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - The U.S. has proposed a "reciprocal tariff" plan, imposing tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% on various countries, with a specific 34% tariff on China [2][6]. - If implemented, the actual tariff rate on all U.S. imports could rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to approximately 26%, marking a significant increase [2][3]. - The tariffs on China alone could exceed 70% when combined with previous tariffs from 2018, indicating a severe escalation compared to the trade war initiated in 2018 [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in tariffs is expected to exacerbate inflation in the U.S., which is already experiencing high inflation rates, potentially leading to higher consumer prices [9][10]. - The effectiveness of increased tariffs in generating substantial government revenue is questioned, as exporters may reduce shipments to the U.S. if profitability declines [9][10]. - The challenges of revitalizing U.S. manufacturing are highlighted, particularly due to the high labor costs compared to emerging economies, making it difficult to compete effectively [9][10]. Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is likely to harm not only the U.S. economy but also increase the risk of a global economic recession due to disrupted supply chains and rising transaction costs [10][11]. - Historical context is provided, noting that the current geopolitical tensions and economic disparities have roots in long-standing global dynamics, including the rise of China and the decline of traditional Western powers [11][13]. Group 4: China's Response and Strategy - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has implemented a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, indicating a restrained approach while leaving room for negotiation [6][22]. - The article emphasizes the need for China to reduce reliance on external demand and focus on domestic consumption to stabilize its economy amid rising tariffs [22][24]. - The shift towards enhancing domestic demand is underscored, with the government prioritizing consumption as a key strategy to counteract the negative effects of tariffs [32][34]. Group 5: Future Economic Strategies - The article suggests that China should strengthen regional alliances and enhance trade cooperation with countries in Southeast Asia and South America to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [25][29]. - It advocates for a focus on domestic economic reforms, including income redistribution and fiscal policy adjustments to stimulate consumption and support lower-income groups [39][41]. - The potential for monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, is discussed as a means to alleviate economic pressures resulting from the trade war [42][44].

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 关税加码背后的深层原因 年初至今，美国对他国的进口关税税率不断加码，尽管关税政策朝令夕改，但税率则超乎想象地往上加。如美方近日 公布的所谓"对等关税"方案，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，拟对中国加征 34% 关税，对欧盟、越南、中国 台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、柬埔寨等贸易伙伴征收 20% 到 49% 不等的 关税，对任何贸易伙伴的最低对等税率也为 10% 。 近年来中国对美顺差的占比已下降 来源： Wind ，中泰证券研究所 为此，我国也采取了向原产于美国的所有商品加征 34% 的进口关税，鉴于美方是在今年对中国加征 20% 关税基础 上再加征 34% 的，说明中方加征的关税属于克制的回应，且留有谈判余地。 特朗普再度当选总统之后，他的施政方略围绕着 MAGA ，即对外加征关税以获得 5000 亿美元以上的关税收入，又 能重振美国的制造业；对内通过政府效率部（ DOGE ）来精简机构、裁减公务员以节省开支、提高效率。同时，限制 移民、国内减税等政策可以起到鼓励投资、保护就业的作用。 特朗普任期与历任总统行政 ...