Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong, with the main contract price rising in a volatile manner and hitting a new high at the end of the month. The spot price first declined and then rose sharply, with regional supply - demand differentiation leading the market. The market's bullish sentiment was strong, but towards the end of the month, the upward momentum slowed. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Caution is needed for a potential market decline [5][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong. As of November 28, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a trading volume of 550,428 lots and an open interest of 959,620 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 447.75 cents/bushel, up 0.56% [5][12][17]. (2) Spot Price - In November, the national average corn price was 2,237 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In the Northeast, prices were strong; in North China, prices were high due to tight supply - demand; in the sales areas, prices continued to rise. The price increases in different regions were significant [7][21][23]. (3) Basis - As of November 28, the basis of the Dalian corn main contract was 46 yuan/ton. In November, the basis recovered from a low and expanded, with the increase in spot prices exceeding that of futures prices [25]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Multiple aspects of information are included, such as China's corn imports from Russia, grain production in India, corn consumption and exports in the US, grain exports in Ukraine, corn planting progress in Argentina and Brazil, and corn procurement results of Sinograin [27][28][31]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Sinograin Corn Auction - In November, Sinograin conducted 74 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 1,168,999 tons and an actual成交 volume of 415,790 tons, a成交 rate of 35.57%. It also conducted 4 corn sales auctions, with all 8,539 tons planned for trading being sold. There were no two - way trading or imported corn auctions [43][45]. (2) North - South Port Corn Inventory - As of November 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.156 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9025 million tons. The domestic and foreign trade corn inventories at Guangdong Port were 284,000 tons and 315,000 tons respectively [51]. (3) Feed Enterprise Inventory - As of November 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, up 3.73 days from October, a month - on - month increase of 15.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [55]. (4) Feed Market - In October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, down 4.2% month - on - month and up 3.6% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed decreased year - on - year [58]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Inventory - As of November 26, the total corn inventory of major domestic corn processing enterprises was 2.698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% [62]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Consumption - In November 2025, the estimated corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 5.93 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons from the previous month and 50,000 tons from the same period last year [67]. (7) Deep - processing Enterprise Startup Rate - In November, the startup rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise. The total output of 60 corn starch production enterprises was 1.3885 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 109,500 tons. The startup rate was 64.03%, up 5.05% month - on - month and down 6.3% year - on - year [71]. (8) Deep - processing Enterprise Profit - In November, the profits of corn starch enterprises improved. The average profits of corn starch hedging by - products in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month [77]. (9) Import and Export - In October 2025, the corn import volume was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500.00% and a year - on - year increase of 43.10%. The export volume was only 52,607 tons [80]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - In November, the average national corn starch price was 2,690 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from October. The firm corn price provided support, and the decline in syrup demand was offset by other industries. The rising prices of cassava and wheat starch boosted the substitution demand for corn starch [88]. (2) Pigs - In November, the average pig slaughter price was 11.67 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from October, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.57%. The market was in a downward trend, and although there was some support from pickling demand in December, supply - side pressure remained [92]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - The corn futures and spot prices rose in tandem in November, but the upward momentum slowed towards the end of the month. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Attention should be paid to the potential market decline. - Operational strategy: For single - side trading, gradually reduce long positions to avoid high - level callback risks; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][93][94].

Z0015545 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-24 生猪价格重心下行，玉米盘面突破 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 生猪 上周生猪期货延续下行趋势，LH2601 合约报收 11350 元/吨， 较前周结算价下跌 3.73%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.74 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.22 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 21 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-135.9 元/头，环比下降 21.09 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-234.63 元/头，环比下降 28.99 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.23，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格先跌后稳，市场供应相对宽松，散户扛 价惜售情绪较弱，周初价格再度下跌；随着气温下降，局部需求有 所回暖，养殖场成交好转，生猪价格止跌趋稳。目前来看，养殖端 低价抵触情绪升温，但整体出栏压力仍存，同时终端需求暂未有较 大提升，屠宰部分虽有增加，但供应增量大于需求增量，需求端支 撑有限，生猪供应过剩的局面仍在，预计短期生猪价格反弹发力， 持续关注养殖场出栏节奏及出栏情绪变化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market continued to be strong this week, with the upward trend slowing down. Supply convergence was the main driving factor, and the downstream's price - raising purchases promoted the price increase. The market has deviated from the state of strong supply and weak demand during the supply season. The price may be stable with intermittent pressure at the end of the year [1][2]. - The corn starch market was also strong this week. The increase in raw material prices provided support, and the supply was tight in some areas, leading to a slight increase in starch prices. However, the recovery of corn prices led to a contraction in industry profits [2]. - CBOT corn futures closed higher this week, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract, supported by good domestic demand and the expected reduction in yield per unit [2][63]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Corn supply was in the stage of inventory consumption, and the peak of concentrated selling pressure had passed. The supply - structure problem in North China caused by precipitation was prominent, and downstream demand was strong. The supply - demand structure was moving towards balance, and prices continued to rise [1]. - The price performance of different regions was differentiated. The Northeast region was stable with a weakening upward trend, the South Port was stable, and North China showed differentiation, with Shandong having the strongest upward trend [1]. - The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, standing above the 2200 - yuan mark [1]. - In the short - term, factors such as state - reserve purchases, low channel inventory, and reduced imports supported price increases. In the long - term, there was a tight supply - demand expectation, but in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might have a negative impact on corn feed demand [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The end of the retracement was more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continued to increase. The 01 contract continued to rise after consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether it could break through the annual - line pressure [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should pay attention to the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory could consider hedging part of their inventory at high prices [8]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: There were no recommended basis and spread strategies for now. For cross - variety arbitrage, it was not suitable for operation for the time being, and for the pig - grain ratio, arbitrage should be on the sidelines [8][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Corn hedging short positions were recommended to be reduced, and virtual inventory could be established at low prices (waiting to enter the market below 2100 yuan) [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: State - reserve purchases continued, the selling progress was fast, and farmers were reluctant to sell. Cold weather was conducive to grain storage, and the US government might introduce a subsidy plan [23]. - **Negative Information**: The IGC raised the global corn production forecast for 2025/26, and there were news of the release of old wheat and continuous auctions of imported corn [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Pay attention to the price changes and transaction results of CNGC's procurement and auctions, the price - supporting strength of state - reserve purchases in the Northeast, and whether price increases would stimulate selling pressure [23]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, and the starch market strengthened after adjustment. The trading volume of starch increased while the position decreased [24]. - **Fund Flow**: The total position and trading volume of the 01 contract of corn changed little, and the total position of the 01 contract of starch decreased slightly while the trading volume increased [25]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of Jinzhou Port was in a reasonable range and weakened slightly. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of corn continued to narrow, and the starch - corn spread widened [34][43][59]. - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures closed higher, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract [63]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between Dalian corn and US corn weakened this week [65]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking - Planting profit was better than last year, especially in the Northeast. Trade profit was improving, while deep - processing profit showed a slight decline [67]. - The basis of Jinzhou Port was neutral to weak, and the spot - futures price resonance increased. There was hedging profit for far - month contracts, but it was not recommended to enter the market for hedging [67]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The increase in domestic prices was smaller than that in foreign prices, and the import profit changed little [69]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, and the annual surplus in 2025/26 was expected to be 3.55 million tons [73]. - **Global**: The global supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, but the inventory - consumption ratio was decreasing [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Supply was gradually decreasing, and the selling pressure in the Northeast would be smaller. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China decreased, and there might be a shortage of high - quality corn [75]. - Procurement enthusiasm remained high, and state - reserve purchases were firm. Import volume decreased significantly, and the negative impact was not obvious [75]. - Port inventory increased slightly in the North and decreased in the South, and overall inventory was still at a low level [77]. - In the US, corn harvest was almost over, and there was a possibility of reducing yield per unit [79]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Consumption demand was good, and feed demand was supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening. However, in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might affect corn feed demand [81]. - Deep - processing demand was in a good state, but the growth trend was slowing down. Corn starch market was strong, alcohol demand remained high, and sugar - deep - processing products showed a slight recovery [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the corn futures market showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, with the main contract reaching a phased high on Friday. The market sentiment was relatively strong. In the short - term, the market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation. The current strong reluctance of farmers to sell and the obstruction of corn circulation, along with the significant depletion of downstream enterprise inventories and the release of rigid restocking demand, provide support for corn prices. However, the sharp increase in imported corn arrivals in October and the increasing expectation of wheat auctions may have an indirect impact on the corn market demand [8][79]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - The price of the domestic corn futures main contract C2601 first declined and then rebounded last week. As of the close on Friday, it was reported at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, with a trading volume of 823,020 lots and an open interest of 949,440 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 437.75 cents per bushel last week [14][19]. (2) Spot Price - The national average weekly price of corn last week was 2,243 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton. In the Northeast, prices in Jilin and Liaoning rose. In North China, some enterprises raised prices to attract supply. In the southern ports, prices increased, while in the northern ports, prices were stable after an initial rise [24]. (3) Basis - As of last Friday, the basis of corn in Dalian area against the main contract was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and it was at the historical average level seasonally [26]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Ukraine has completed 84% of its planned grain harvest area as of November 13, with a harvest of 47.937 million tons [27]. - The EU's 27 - country grain exports from July 1 to November 9 increased by 16% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 32% [27]. - The US Department of Agriculture's November report adjusted the US 2025/26 corn production, export, and ending inventory. The global corn production, usage, and export were also adjusted, with a slight decrease in ending inventory [27][28]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting progress as of November 12 was 36.6% of the expected area, slightly behind last year [28]. - There were various results from China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auctions and procurement in different regions from November 17 - 21 [29][30][31]. - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending November 13 was 2.053932 million tons, exceeding market expectations [30]. - Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting progress was 85% as of November 13, and the expected export volume in November is 6.36 million tons [30][34]. - South Korea's feed - related enterprises had multiple corn procurement activities [31][33][35]. - The IGC raised the 2025/26 global corn production forecast by 1 million tons to 129.8 million tons [36]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's Corn Auction - There were 17 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 200,916 tons and an actual成交 volume of 65,705 tons, a成交 rate of 32.7%. There were 2 sales auctions, with a 100%成交 rate. There were no trading in two - way and imported corn auctions [39][41]. (2) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of November 20, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 26.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 days, or 2.42%, but a year - on - year decrease of 9.58% [44]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - As of November 20, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.727 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.02% [50]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3831 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.34 million tons week - on - week. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [54]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup - Last week, the processing volume, output, and startup rate of the corn starch industry all decreased slightly. The weekly processing volume was 612,400 tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons from the previous week; the output was 315,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; and the weekly startup rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% [59]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Due to the rise in corn raw material prices, the production profit of downstream deep - processing enterprises decreased. The hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with the previous week [64]. (7) Import and Export - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons, or 43.1%. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.84 million tons, or 90% [67]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,691 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. Prices in different regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang had different changes [71][73]. (2) Pigs - Last week, the spot and futures prices of pigs continued to decline. The national average pig slaughter price was 11.55 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg, or 2.04%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.39% [78]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 (1)后市展望 - The short - term corn market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation, supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, restocking demand from downstream enterprises, but affected by increased imports and wheat auction expectations [79]. (2)操作策略 - For unilateral trading, hold long positions cautiously and verify the effectiveness of the 2,200 - yuan key level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The actual supply pressure may be less than last year. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China, and many are stocking up there. New - grain sales are fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The corn main 2601 contract rebounded and was adjusted under pressure near 2190. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The basis of corn strengthened slightly, and the futures price was at a discount. The starch main 2601 contract was slightly adjusted, and the basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly [5]. Supply - side Situation - **New - grain sales and production**: The national corn output increased to 3 billion tons, 5 million tons higher than the same period last year. As of November 20, the total national grain - sales progress was 27%, 2% faster year - on - year. If the sales progress continues, the expectation of tight supply later will increase [5]. - **Port inventory**: As of November 14, the corn inventory in the northern ports continued to rise to 117 million tons, but was significantly lower than the same period last year. The inventory of domestic and foreign - trade corn in Guangdong Port decreased [6]. - **Grain substitution and imports**: The wheat - corn price difference remained above 200, without substitution advantages. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level, but there was a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed demand**: Pig farming was in a large - scale loss, but the short - term inventory was difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg - chicken farming continued to lose money. However, feed demand was strong. In October, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was good. Starch processing enterprises continued to make profits, with a relatively high operating rate. Alcohol processing enterprises were in a large - scale loss, but the operating rate rose again. The operating rates of downstream starch - sugar and paper - making enterprises were relatively stable [7]. External Market Situation The U.S. corn on the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The U.S. government ended the shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report slightly reduced the U.S. corn yield per unit and output, but the ending inventory increased slightly, with relatively large supply pressure. The global corn ending inventory decreased slightly, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture report was neutral [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, China's corn production is expected to reach 300 million tons for the first time in history. With the harvest almost complete, the supply - demand structure is gradually moving towards balance. In the long - term, there is a tight supply expectation under mild production increase pressure, weakening import pressure, and stable demand [1]. - In the short - term, the corn market has shown a strong performance due to reduced supply and downstream price - raising purchases. However, the price may face intermittent pressure as the selling peak at the end of the year tests its resilience [1]. - The corn starch market has also run strongly this week, supported by rising raw material prices, good order shipments, and tight local supply [1]. - The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week, but the bearish November supply - demand data led to a sharp decline on Friday, erasing most of the gains from Monday to Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: In the Northeast, state reserve purchases support the market, and in North China, the reluctance to sell has reduced short - term supply. The downstream's price - raising purchases have supported the weekly strength of the corn market. China's corn production increase is certain, and the market is still digesting the price pressure from the production increase. The corn price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [7]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: China's corn supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With a sharp reduction in corn and substitute grain imports and a possible decrease in high - quality corn production in North China, the medium - term supply - demand structure may tighten. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth - quarter supply peak, and buyers should pay attention to the participation opportunities at the price bottom [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The sign of the end of the pull - back is more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continues to increase. Technically, the 01 contract is supported at the 2100 - yuan mark and rebounds along the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should be aware of the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory can consider partial inventory hedging at high prices to avoid pull - back risks [8]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - **Basis strategy**: The spot and futures prices are moving in sync, with a weaker increase in the production area. The port basis fluctuates narrowly, and no strategy is recommended [8]. - **Monthly spread strategy**: The decrease in spot supply has led the near - month 01 contract to perform strongly, narrowing the spread between near - and far - month contracts. The "sell near, buy far" strategy is temporarily withdrawn for observation [8]. - **Hedging arbitrage strategy**: Due to the fundamentals of soybeans and corn, it is not suitable for inter - variety arbitrage. The wheat - corn spread has narrowed but is still outside the substitution range. The starch - corn spread has little change, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now. The pig - grain ratio's rebound space is uncertain, and arbitrage is on hold [11][12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.25% and a volatility percentile of 38.4%. For starch, it is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a volatility of 7.81% and a volatility percentile of 15.39% [18]. - **Risk strategies for the fourth quarter**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts, with corresponding scenarios, hedging tools, trading directions, and suggested entry intervals [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: State reserve purchases continue to support the market, the early sales progress is fast, and farmers' reluctance to sell has reduced the effective circulating grain sources. Terminal enterprises have to raise prices to increase arrivals [19]. - **Negative information**: The increase in U.S. corn supply pressure due to the bearish USDA supply - demand report, and the possible increase in selling pressure after the price rises [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the price increase stimulates an increase in selling pressure [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures market has continued to strengthen this week. The main 01 contract rose 1.68% to 2185 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest, a slight increase in trading volume, and an increase in registered positions. The starch market has also strengthened in sync with corn, with a similar increase rate [20][21]. - **International market**: The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week but fell sharply on Friday due to bearish supply - demand data, and the rebound trend has weakened [53]. 3.3.2 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Starch - Corn Spread - **Basis structure**: After the new season started, the basis between the mainstream price at Jinzhou Port and the main contract is in a reasonable range, with little change. However, the basis in the production areas has weakened [25]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The spread between near - and far - month corn contracts has weakened this week, and the term structure has flattened. The starch basis in the main production areas has also weakened [35]. - **Starch - corn spread**: The spread has fluctuated slightly this week, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now [49]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: It is better than last year, especially in the Northeast production area [57]. - **Trading profit**: The stable and strengthening corn price is conducive to trading enterprises' purchasing and sales activities, and the inventory profit is improving [57]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The profit from corn - to - starch has slightly declined due to the rebound in corn prices and limited follow - up of starch spot prices. The profit from the corn - to - ethanol industry has continued to decline [57]. - **Disk profit**: The basis at Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. There is hedging profit for far - month contracts, but considering the bottom of the spot price, it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [57]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has increased as the domestic price has risen more strongly than the international price [59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **China's corn**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in planting area, production, import, consumption, and inventory in different years. The annual surplus is expected to be 3.55 million tons in 2025/26 [63]. - **Global corn**: The world's corn supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in beginning inventory, production, import, consumption, export, and ending inventory in different years. The stock - to - use ratio is expected to be 21.97% in 2025/26 [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is gradually decreasing from the peak. The selling pressure will be reduced as the temperature drops in the Northeast. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China has decreased due to rainfall. Although the overall supply is still high, there may be a shortage of high - quality corn [65]. - **Import**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative import of corn and corn flour was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. In September, the import was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [65]. - **Inventory**: The port corn inventory has not increased significantly, and the overall inventory is still at a low level, providing space for future corn purchasing and sales [67]. - **Foreign corn**: The U.S. corn harvest is nearing completion, and the supply pressure is high. The bearish USDA supply - demand report on the 14th has increased the supply pressure [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - **Consumption**: The operating rates of major products have continued to rise. The feed demand is supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening, and the overall demand in the fourth quarter remains good [71]. - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The feed production is high, and the feed enterprise inventory has rebounded but is still at a low level. The pig - raising profit has changed little this week, and the reduction of pig production capacity may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [71]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn has attracted downstream enterprises to increase their operating rates, driving up corn consumption. However, the growth trend has slowed down due to rising raw material prices and insufficient price increases for terminal products [74].

Group 1: Market Data - As of November 6, 2025, U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,424,968 tons, down from a revised 1,712,164 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. corn export inspection volume for the current crop year is 13,725,293 tons, compared to 8,281,606 tons during the same period last year [1] - Brazil's corn planting rate for the first crop reached 47.7% as of November 8, up from 42.8% the previous week, but slightly below last year's 48.7% [1] Group 2: Production Forecasts - Brazil's total corn production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 143.562 million tons, an increase from the previous estimate of 142.494 million tons, driven by improved first-season crop yields and favorable second-season growth conditions [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - With the U.S. corn harvest progressing, supply pressure is expected to increase, although recent price increases in soybeans and wheat are providing some support to corn prices [2] - Domestic market conditions show that primary production areas are experiencing sales pressure, with farmers and traders actively selling grain, leading to relatively ample market supply [2] - The overall trend for corn prices has been slightly bullish in the short term, with market participants advised to remain observant [2] Group 4: Inventory and Demand - The current situation indicates an oversupply of corn, with ample grain sources in production areas and low inventory levels among feed enterprises and deep processing companies [3] - The profitability of deep processing is improving, and strong wheat prices are providing additional support to corn prices [3]

Core Insights - The global corn supply remains ample as the new season's corn is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a continuous decline in domestic corn prices in China. However, as supply-side pressures are fully digested and demand enters a peak season, corn prices are expected to gradually rise [1] Group 1: Production Data - The International Grains Council forecasts that global corn production for the 2025/2026 season will remain stable at approximately 1.297 billion tons. In China, the corn planting area has increased by 134,000 hectares, a growth of 0.3%, while the yield per hectare has risen by 71 kg, or about 1.1%. Overall, corn production in China has increased by 4.08 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.38% [2] Group 2: Import Trends - Due to trade disputes between China and the U.S. and Canada, imports of grains, including corn, are expected to decrease. Barley imports are projected to fall below 10 million tons, while sorghum imports are estimated to be between 5.5 million and 6.5 million tons. The recent decline in corn prices has diminished the substitution advantage of other grains against corn. For the 2025-2026 period, corn imports are expected to be around 6 million tons, not exceeding the quota limit of 7.2 million tons [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand - Corn consumption in China is primarily driven by feed and deep processing sectors. As the fourth quarter approaches, demand from livestock, particularly broilers and pigs, is expected to rise, supporting corn feed demand. Additionally, after mid-October, profits for domestic starch and deep processing enterprises are anticipated to return to profitability and continue to rise, boosting production willingness. Data shows that by the end of October, the corn consumption of major deep processing enterprises increased by 6.71% week-on-week [4] Group 4: Inventory Stability - Domestic corn inventory is expected to stabilize around 41 million tons after rebounding in the 2022-2023 season. As of the end of October, the inventory of major deep processing enterprises was 2.827 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.82% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.41%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio for the new corn year remains reasonable, which will effectively buffer price fluctuations caused by supply growth. Despite a decrease in land rent, rising labor costs limit the decline in planting costs in major corn-producing regions, keeping planting returns at a relatively low level and constraining the downward space for corn prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain has entered the trading phase with fast sales. There is a trend of sourcing grain from Northeast China, which may lead to a shortage of high - quality grain sources later. With strong demand, it is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality moist grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed. It is also advisable to buy far - month hedging on the futures market to avoid price increase risks [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price has risen steadily. The FOB price of corn in Bayuquan has increased from 2140 yuan/ton to around 2165 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port has remained stable at around 2250 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened oscillatingly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [3]. - The main starch 2601 contract has rebounded oscillatingly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu has remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis has weakened oscillatingly [3]. Supply - side Factors - New grain sales are fast, and the market is sourcing grain from Northeast China. As of November 6, the national grain sales progress was 22%, 3% faster year - on - year. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18% (3% faster y/y), 20% in North China (1% faster y/y), and 42% in Northwest China (4% faster y/y). Faster sales may lead to a tight supply after the Spring Festival [3]. - Channel inventories are rising, and downstream enterprises are starting to purchase. As of October 31, the corn inventory in North Ports was 102.1 tons and continued to rise, with a weekly shipment volume of 71.6 tons remaining high. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port stopped falling and rebounded to 42.5 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 31.7 tons. As of November 7, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, slightly down but generally rising, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 24.88 days, stopping the decline and starting to rise [3]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain low. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened to over 200, eliminating the substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. Although there has been a new China - US trade negotiation and mutual tax cuts, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the agreement mainly involves the import of tens of millions of tons of US soybeans, with no mention of corn. It is expected that corn imports will remain low in the short term [4]. Demand - side Factors - Feed demand is strong. Pig prices have rebounded from the low level, and the loss in pig farming has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 89.3 yuan per head, both showing a reduction in losses. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month, still far from the regulatory target. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, egg prices have rebounded, and egg - chicken farming is slightly in the red. Chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. The inventory of laying hens in October decreased slightly, but the capacity adjustment is still slow [5]. - The demand of deep - processing enterprises is positive. Starch processing enterprises have been continuously profitable, and the operating rate has increased. As of November 7, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.77% and continued to rise, and the starch inventory increased month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises have suffered large losses again, but the operating rate has remained high at 66.79%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises has increased [5]. International Market - The US corn in the overseas market has rebounded oscillatingly. The US government shutdown continues, but the US Department of Agriculture may release a new supply - demand report. The US corn harvest is almost over, with high yield pressure. Affected by China - US trade negotiations and tax cuts, US corn has been boosted, but it is unclear whether China will import US corn [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After the impact of the new season's listing in October, the spot price showed resilience and fluctuated slightly stronger in November. Although the spot selling pressure remained at a high level, the price showed signs of bottom consolidation under the influence of state reserve purchases, deep - processing and feed enterprises' restocking at low prices, and the rise of surrounding agricultural product prices. Downstream enterprises are advised to manage their long - term procurement to avoid the risk of increased procurement costs later [2]. - On the futures side, the corn futures price broke through upwards, recovering the decline in October. The main 01 contract closed at 2154 yuan, with increased trading volume and significantly increased open interest. The registered warrants remained unchanged at 66,351 lots. The starch price also rose, with the main 01 contract closing at 2469 yuan, increased trading volume, and slightly increased open interest. The strong sales in the starch market led to continuous inventory reduction, and the futures price followed the corn to strengthen, with the price spread between starch and corn likely to widen further [2]. - Although the overall corn price has stopped falling and stabilized, it is still weaker than other agricultural products. Currently, the price shows resilience, and short - term selling pressure is the core factor determining the price [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower. The harvest and listing of the new season's corn is the core factor suppressing the futures price. In addition, the good planting conditions for South American corn and the sharp decline of surrounding soybeans and wheat also brought pressure [2]. Summary by Section Core Contradictions - Spot price: After the October shock, it showed resilience and narrow - range upward fluctuations in November. Selling pressure is high, but state reserve purchases, enterprise restocking, and rising surrounding agricultural product prices support the price to show bottom - consolidation signs [2]. - Futures price: Corn futures broke through upwards, recovering the October decline. Starch futures followed the upward trend, and the price spread may widen [2]. - Overall situation: Corn price is stable but weaker than other agricultural products. Short - term selling pressure is the key price - determining factor [2]. - International market: CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower due to new - season harvest, good South American planting conditions, and the decline of surrounding products [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure is more dispersed, reducing the urgency of grain sales and alleviating price pressure [3]. - State reserve purchases in the Northeast production area are significantly supporting prices, limiting price declines [3]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, affecting the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current second - fattening entry support the feed demand at a good level [4]. - In the first half of November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure may be released in a concentrated manner, limiting the continuous upward momentum of prices [4]. - The sharp decline of overnight foreign agricultural products may affect the upward trend of corn [4]. Price Forecast - Corn price range (monthly): 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 56.1% [5]. - Starch price range (monthly): 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.00% and a volatility percentile of 37.89% [5]. Price and Basis Data - Spot price: For corn, Jinzhou Port is 2155 yuan (-10 yuan), Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch, Shandong is 2750 yuan (unchanged), Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is 2450 yuan (unchanged) [5]. - Basis: Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis for corn is 1 yuan (-30 yuan), and Shandong main - continuous basis for corn starch is 281 yuan (-18 yuan) [5]. - Futures price: Corn futures prices generally increased on November 6, 2025, with the 11 - contract rising 28 yuan (1.32%), the 01 - contract rising 20 yuan (0.94%), etc. Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the 11 - contract unchanged, the 01 - contract rising 18 yuan (0.73%), etc. The wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan (-0.12%) [6]. International Market Data - CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 428.75 cents per bushel, down 6.25 cents (-1.44%). COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1108 cents per bushel, down 26.5 cents (-2.34%). CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 536 cents per bushel, down 18 cents (-3.25%) [26]. - The duty - paid price in the US Gulf is 2164.54 yuan, up 10.57 yuan (0.49%), with an import profit of 85.46 yuan. The duty - paid price in the US West is 2048.48 yuan, up 10.63 yuan (0.52%), with an import profit of 201.52 yuan [26].