Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current market for old - crop corn inventory continues to decline, while the demand for corn in the breeding and feed production sectors is steadily increasing. The overall market for circulating grain is in a state of tight balance. Although the new - season wheat listing has a negative impact on grain prices, its actual impact on corn prices is limited, and multiple factors still support corn prices. - In the short term, the futures price may show a volatile trend due to price corrections in some regions and the phased pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] 3) Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - **Futures Price Review**: Last week, the domestic corn futures main contract c2509 reached a high of 2420 yuan/ton and then declined, closing at 2384 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 0.21% increase from the previous day. The CBOT corn 09 contract closed at 411.25 cents per bushel, down 12.25 cents or 2.90% from the previous week, hitting a new low since October 2024. [5][13] - **Spot Price Review**: In the Northeast market, the price of second - class corn in Bayuquan was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Jinzhou Port, it was 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In the North China market, the price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week, reaching a new high for the year. In the sales area, the mainstream price of second - class Northeast corn in Guangxi Shekou Port was 2440 - 2470 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week. [5][18][20] II.上周重要信息回顾 - Policy: Heilongjiang plans to expand the planting area of fine varieties, with a maximum subsidy of 500,000 yuan per variety; Russia lowers wheat export tariffs by 56% and corn export tariffs by 10%. - Weather: China Meteorological Administration predicts heavy rainfall in the southwest to the Huanghuai region in the next 10 days. - Trade: In May 2025, China's grain imports increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and from January to May, cumulative imports decreased by 29.7% year - on - year. - Industry: Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% starting August 1; the ANEC predicts that Brazil's corn exports in June will be 828,959 tons, a 15.7% decrease from last year. The IGC expects the global grain output in the 2025/26 season to increase by 3% year - on - year. [21][22] III.国内玉米供需分析 - **中储粮拍卖情况**: Last week, there was 1 corn procurement auction with a 100% transaction rate; 14 sales auctions with a 90.23% transaction rate; 7 two - way trading auctions with a 90.18% transaction rate; and no import corn auctions. [24][26] - **深加工企业玉米库存情况**: As of June 25, the total corn inventory of 96 major deep - processing enterprises was 4.567 million tons, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. [30] - **深加工企业玉米消费量情况**: From June 19 to 25, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1892 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.0129 million tons from the previous period. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes. [33] - **饲企库存情况**: As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, a decrease of 0.48 days from the previous week, a 1.45% decrease from the previous period, and a 3.43% increase year - on - year. [40] IV.玉米下游需求情况 - **玉米深加工企业开工情况**: Recently, the start - up rate of corn starch has shown a differentiated trend, and the overall industry start - up rate has slightly declined. From June 19 to 25, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 0.5462 million tons, and the corn starch output was 0.2646 million tons, with the start - up rate at 51.15%, a 0.46% decrease from the previous week. [44] - **玉米深加工企业利润情况**: Last week, the hedging profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 132 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 117 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was - 136 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. [49] - **玉米淀粉**: As of June 26, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 940,300 tons, a 2.27% decrease from the previous period and a 9.22% increase year - on - year. The corn starch market remains strong, with some enterprises slightly raising their quotes. [53] V.后市展望 - In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate due to price corrections in some regions and the pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] VI.操作策略 - In the short term, due to market uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, closely monitor recent macro - policy adjustments and domestic and foreign supply - demand changes, and look for long - position layout opportunities in far - month contracts. [9][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, corn prices showed a volatile trend. In the international market, recent favorable weather in US corn - growing regions is conducive to the completion of corn sowing and growth. The phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 5th released positive signals again. Coupled with the net export sales of 110,200 tons of US corn last week meeting expectations, US corn prices were volatile. In the domestic market, winter wheat is gradually being harvested from north to south. As of June 5th, the national winter wheat harvest progress reached 52.32%. Due to the generally low opening prices, reserves in many areas have started to enter the market to purchase wheat, which will support wheat prices. Currently, there is little remaining corn inventory, and with slower shipments from traders, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises remains low. In the short - term, domestic corn spot prices fluctuate. In terms of demand, feed enterprises currently have relatively sufficient inventories. The off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking, and feed enterprises purchase as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry is entering an off - season, but the recovery of processing profits has slightly stimulated demand. In the short - term, domestic corn may rebound due to reduced trader shipments and the support of wheat prices from reserve purchases. In the long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supplies, port inventories are continuously consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a bullish expectation for far - month corn [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - The CBOT07 corn closed at 442.00 cents per bushel this week, down 1.50 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.34%. The C2507 corn closed at 2,340 yuan per ton, up 4 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.17% [8]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **External Market - US Corn Weather**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - growing regions is average, and temperatures return to normal [13]. - **External Market - US Corn Sowing**: As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 69%, in line with market expectations, up from 68% the previous week and down from 75% in the same period last year. The US corn planting rate was 93%, also in line with expectations, up from 87% the previous week, compared with 90% last year and a five - year average of 93% [13][21]. - **External Market - US Corn Exports**: As of the week ending May 29, the net export sales of US corn for the 2025/2026 season were 942,000 tons, up from 917,000 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 season, net sales were 160,000 tons, up from 31,000 tons the previous week [13][25]. - **Domestic - Wheat Harvest**: As of June 5, the national winter wheat harvest progress was 52.32%. In Henan, nearly 85% of the harvest was completed; in Jiangsu and Shaanxi, nearly 45%; in Shanxi, nearly 20%; and in Shandong, over 15%. In Anhui, over 50% of summer sowing was completed; in Henan, over 60%; and in Shaanxi, over 20% [13][27]. - **Demand - Feed Enterprises**: As of June 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.35 days, a decrease of 1.19 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 3.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.15% [31]. - **Demand - Processing Enterprises**: From May 29 to June 4, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 551,700 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from the previous week. The weekly national corn starch output was 267,900 tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 51.78%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous week [34]. - **Demand - Processing Enterprise Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 465,400 tons, an increase of 2.81% [38]. - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,100 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 657,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 206,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 114,900 tons, a decrease of 21,800 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The imported sorghum was 315,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week [40]. 3.3. Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking including corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - corn spread, corn basis, and wheat - corn spread, but no specific data is provided [42][43][47].

Core Insights - The average spot price of corn in China on June 9 was reported at 2240.00 CNY/ton, which is 117.00 CNY/ton lower than the futures main contract price of 2357.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market saw the main corn contract close at 2357.00 CNY/ton on June 9, with a daily increase of 0.90% and a trading volume of 510,372 contracts [2] Price Overview - Yellow corn (Grade 3, 14% moisture) prices varied across different regions in China, with the highest price at 2440 CNY/ton in Shandong and the lowest at 2100 CNY/ton in Heilongjiang [2] Market Conditions - The USDA crop report indicated that as of June 1, 93% of corn planting in the U.S. was completed, matching the five-year average, with a good crop condition rating of 69% [3] - Drought monitoring reports show that 21% of corn crops are in drought-affected areas, down from 23% the previous week, but significantly higher than the 3% reported last year [4] Analysis Perspective - According to Southwest Futures, domestic corn supply and demand are trending towards balance, with favorable policies and recovering consumption. However, there are still short-term supply pressures due to high port inventory levels and reduced imports in the first four months of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's corn prices are under pressure due to high yield expectations and financial stress on farmers, with export pace being a key variable influencing future price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Financial Pressure - Optimistic yield expectations for Brazil's second-season corn in 2025 are projected to exceed 96 million tons, driven by favorable weather conditions [2]. - Farmers are facing dual financial challenges, leading to an inclination to sell corn early to cover costs, as they anticipate rising soybean prices [2]. - The large area planted with corn and limited storage capacity are contributing to increased selling pressure, with significant sales expected unless prices fall below break-even levels [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - Domestic demand is transitioning between summer crops and second-season crops, with stable feed and ethanol consumption insufficient to absorb the supply pressure of over 90 million tons [3]. - An estimated export volume of over 40 million tons is necessary for supply-demand balance, with USDA predicting a corn production of 131 million tons and exports of 43 million tons for the 2025/26 season [3]. - Current corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade have not shown significant increases, and export prices are hovering between 67 to 71 Brazilian Reais per bag, indicating a wait-and-see approach in the market [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations and Risks - Analysts expect a significant acceleration in port collection rhythm starting in July, with potential international market disruptions possibly benefiting Brazilian corn exports [4]. - The Brazilian corn market faces risks from increased domestic supply and logistical issues that could impact production and pricing [4]. - Farmers are advised to monitor climate changes, exchange rate fluctuations, and global market demand to adjust their sales strategies accordingly [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in corn prices in Heilongjiang is attributed to supply-demand mismatches and rising bullish sentiment, reflecting a broader trend in the national corn market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average corn price in China reached 2.42 yuan per kilogram in the first week of May, marking a 0.8% increase from the previous week, although down 4.3% year-on-year [2]. - In Heilongjiang, prices for corn have risen significantly post "May Day" holiday, with trade prices reported between 2,130 to 2,160 yuan per ton [2][3]. - The price increase is supported by a reduction in inventory levels among deep processing enterprises, with average inventory days dropping to 35 days and daily delivery shortages expanding to 25% to 30% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competition for grain sources has intensified, leading to expectations of continued price increases [1][3]. - The transfer of grain sources into trade inventory has created a "reservoir effect" at ports, further bolstering bullish market expectations [3][6]. - Despite the strong price momentum, the purchasing willingness of feed enterprises remains weak, and competition from alternative products may limit further price increases [4][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The overall supply of corn in China remains ample, with an expected planting area increase of 132,000 hectares for the 2025/26 season, leading to a projected total production of 29,616 million tons [5]. - The demand for corn is expected to stabilize, with feed consumption remaining steady and industrial consumption likely to hold [5]. - The narrowing price gap between corn and wheat, along with the anticipated harvest of wheat, may enhance wheat's competitive advantage, potentially impacting corn prices in the medium to long term [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the dynamics of the global corn market, highlighting the impact of U.S. corn planting exceeding expectations, Brazil's anticipated bumper crop for the second season, and Argentina's delayed harvest [1] Group 2 - U.S. corn planting has surpassed expectations, indicating a potentially strong supply in the upcoming season [1] - Brazil is expected to have a significant corn yield in the second season, which could influence global prices and supply [1] - Argentina is experiencing delays in its corn harvest, which may affect its contribution to the global corn market [1]

Group 1 - As of April 30, 2025, corn futures closed at 2377 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 1.76% with a trading volume increase of 112,988 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - For the week ending April 24, 2024, U.S. corn export net sales were 1.014 million tons, down from 1.153 million tons the previous week, while corn shipments were 1.598 million tons, down from 1.78 million tons [2] - On April 30, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a corn warehouse receipt of 168,663 contracts, an increase of 35,188 contracts from the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - Market sentiment for corn prices is strong, with expectations of high volatility; however, caution is advised due to potential pressure from upcoming wheat harvests [4] - Supply dynamics indicate that grain reserves in Northeast China are nearing depletion, leading to a bullish outlook among traders, while demand from livestock and feed sectors is increasing due to improved profitability [5] - The stability of wheat prices and its reduced price gap with corn may impact corn demand negatively, highlighting the need to monitor U.S.-China tariff policy changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of corn supply and demand in Heilongjiang, highlighting the low remaining grain levels among farmers and traders, as well as the quality of new corn and planting costs [3][4]. Group 1: Grain Supply Situation - In Heilongjiang's western region, farmers have less than 10% of their grain remaining, while traders hold about 20% [3]. - Specific areas like Daqing and Lindian have relatively abundant grain supplies compared to regions like Kedong and Keshan, which have less [3]. - Overall, the remaining grain levels are significantly lower than last year, with a faster selling pace observed [4]. Group 2: New Grain Quality and Planting Costs - The quality of new corn is reported to be good, with some areas showing even better quality than last year due to favorable weather conditions [3]. - Planting costs have decreased by 20%-30% compared to last year, with land rental prices ranging from 9,000 to 12,000 yuan per mu [3]. Group 3: Trader Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Traders are generally optimistic about future prices, with many holding onto their grain in anticipation of price increases [4]. - The market has seen price increases due to multiple government storage announcements, and the upcoming selling pressure from farmers is expected to be less than anticipated [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions, trader sentiment, and policy changes in the coming months [4]. Group 4: Company Insights - Company A, a comprehensive agricultural enterprise, reports low inventory levels with plans to purchase natural dried grain in March [11]. - Company B, a large deep processing enterprise, has a two-month inventory and is adopting a market-responsive purchasing strategy [13]. - Company C, focused on high-value corn products, notes limited remaining grain and a cautious approach to pricing [16]. Group 5: Regional Variations - Different regions exhibit varying levels of grain supply, with some areas having nearly depleted stocks while others maintain a more substantial inventory [18][28]. - The article highlights the role of drying towers in grain storage, with some having significant remaining stocks while others are nearly empty [25][28]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article suggests that March and early April will be critical for observing selling pressure and market dynamics as temperatures rise [17]. - The anticipated selling pressure may not meet expectations, potentially leading to a smoother upward price trend if conditions remain favorable [4].