1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall corn price this week was first strong and then weak. The pressure of new grain listing in the spot market still dominates the market rhythm. The corn market may enter a second - decline phase to confirm the low point under the accumulated selling pressure. The starch market was relatively strong this week, with the price showing signs of strengthening, the industry's operating rate rising, and the inventory level falling but still remaining high. The CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher this week, and the U.S. federal government shutdown led to a lack of key data guidance [1][7]. - In the short - term trading logic, the short - term disturbance of rainfall in the North China and Huanghuai regions to the new grain listing has gradually dissipated. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The increase in the number of state - owned grain reserve purchase points restricts the weakening of prices in the Northeast region. The secondary fattening of pigs may support the relatively high level of corn feed demand in the fourth quarter. In the long - term trading expectation, the supply - demand contradiction in the domestic corn market is relatively mild. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter, and buyers should pay attention to the opportunity. In 2026, the corn feed demand may be negatively affected, while the deep - processing demand is stable and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [7]. - The trend of the corn market is in the later stage of the downward trend, with a back - step to confirm the bottom. The 01 contract tests the support at the 2100 - yuan mark. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market, but when it enters the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range, it is advisable to close short positions and wait and see. For options, a selling strategy based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market Situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 80%. The corn price is first strong and then weak, and the starch market is strong. The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher [1]. - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the price may form a bottom in the fourth quarter, and the 2026 corn feed demand may be affected [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the later stage of the downward trend, testing the 2100 - yuan support. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market and consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis has narrow - range fluctuations with no recommended strategies. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn reaches a new low. For the spread strategy, focus on the long - starch and short - corn arbitrage as the starch - corn spread expands to over 300 yuan [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range of corn is predicted to be 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.64% and a volatility percentile of 23.6% [17]. - **Risk Strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Multiple entities, including CGS, start the new - season corn bidding and procurement, and the Trump administration plans to provide new - round aid funds to farmers [19]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 is expected to be 657 tons, and the grain - producing areas are in the peak of listing [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Pay attention to the price trend of corn due to increased spot pressure, the situation of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's functions, and the results of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Corn contracts are first strong and then weak, with the main 01 contract rising 0.76% this week. The corn starch main 01 contract rises nearly 2.4%. The trading volume and open interest of both increase [20]. - **International Market**: The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher, and the domestic demand and export expectations support the price [53]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: The spread between the domestic and U.S. corn changes slightly, and the U.S. corn price is slightly weaker than the domestic 01 contract [57]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Basis Structure**: The basis changes little after the spot market switches to new - season pricing, and the difference in Jinzhou Port converges significantly [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn is at a high level in the same period [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting Profit**: The planting profit shows a slight recovery, but the overall situation is not optimistic due to the peak of grain listing [59]. - **Trading Profit**: The trading profit declines to a small - profit range as the new grain arrives at the port [59]. - **Deep - processing Profit**: The profit of corn starch continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry declines [59]. - **Disk Profit**: There is no profit on the disk, and the far - month contracts have hedging profit, but it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [59]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn decreases due to the rise in the international market and the weakness in the domestic market [61]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply and demand of corn are basically balanced, with a slight surplus in some years [65]. - **Global**: The supply - demand relationship is relatively stable, but the inventory - to - consumption ratio shows a downward trend [66]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic**: The domestic corn harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure will last until November. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level in the fourth quarter. The inventory in the northern ports is rising, while that in the southern ports is falling [67][68][71]. - **Foreign**: The U.S. corn harvest progress continues, and its impact on China is limited [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed Demand**: The feed demand is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, but it may be affected in 2026 [73]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing demand is in a good range and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [78].

Core Viewpoint - Corn futures are experiencing slight upward movement, with potential for further price fluctuations and varying market sentiments among different institutions [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - As of March 15, corn futures main contract showed a strong oscillation, peaking at 2141.00 yuan, and closing at 2138.00 yuan with a 0.33% increase [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates that there may be a possibility of corn prices reaching new lows due to the anticipated pressure from a bumper harvest this year [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, there is a possibility for corn prices to decline further, influenced by adjustments in futures prices and concentrated supply in the Northeast region [2] - Guangzhou Futures suggests that while corn spot prices are weakening due to increased supply, the lower inventory levels in the mid and downstream sectors may limit the downside potential for prices [3] - Caida Futures notes that with the new corn season entering a concentrated harvest phase, there is an increase in supply, but seasonal supply pressures are suppressing price increases, leading to short-term price volatility [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are likely to decline in the short term but have limited downside space, with support at the 2000 price level. It is recommended to focus on long - term long - buying opportunities for corn [2][5]. - Different participants in the industry are given corresponding operation suggestions. Traders for procurement management should build inventory, buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases, and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; traders for inventory management with inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level; downstream enterprises for procurement management should buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; downstream enterprises for inventory management with high raw material inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level [2]. - Key data to focus on include the selling pressure at the grass - roots level, changes in the inventory of the breeding industry, and the price difference between corn and wheat [2]. Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Continuous rainy weather has intensified the selling pressure in Henan and other regions, resulting in a significant impact from the overall market supply. The new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions has a large amount of harvest and listing, with high enthusiasm for selling grain at the grass - roots level. The arrival volume at the four northern ports and the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants have reached historical highs [7][8]. Corn Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a three - year low. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of ordinary corn was 890,000 tons, a decrease of 92.92% compared with the same period last year. The estimated import volume of corn in the 2024/25 season is 3 million tons, lower than the 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][18][19]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat has moved out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has decreased. The price of wheat has risen this week. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is around - 290 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 45.22% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 40.00% year - on - year [22][23]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is poor. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn used in compound feed was 32.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 percentage points. The inventory of breeding capacity is at a high level, but the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the breeding profit of broilers, and the breeding profit of laying hens are all in a poor state [31][32][33]. Corn Processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to recover, and the deep - processing production profit has improved rapidly. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises in the country has returned to a neutral level, with the operating rate in Shandong and Heilongjiang regions at a relatively high level. The production of corn starch has increased, and the downstream pick - up volume has recovered. The production profit of corn starch has recovered rapidly, and the profit of corn alcohol manufacturing in major producing provinces has also improved [47][48]. Inventory Channel and Downstream Inventory - Channel and downstream inventories have started to replenish, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of October 10, the inventory at the four northern ports has stopped falling and started to rise, but it is still at a low level. The inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has continued to rise seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises has increased and is at a high level in the past eight years [75][76][77]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch contracts such as C2601, C2605, and C2609, including the basis of corn and starch at different ports and regions, and the spread between different contracts [106][116][117]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of October 16, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 [126].

Core Viewpoint - The new season corn supply is increasing as it enters October, leading to a significant price drop, particularly in North China due to continuous rainfall affecting quality and supply reliance on Northeast corn [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The new season corn from Northeast China is of higher quality and quantity compared to last year, with a potential price increase of up to 200 yuan/ton expected in the second and third quarters of next year [1][8]. - In early October, the average price drop for corn in Northeast and North China was 161 yuan/ton and 46 yuan/ton respectively, with a national average price of 2181 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.05% decrease from late September [1][3]. - The price difference between North and Northeast China reached 200 yuan/ton, allowing Northeast corn to be sold in North China [3][6]. Market Dynamics - Continuous rainfall in North China has led to a slowdown in corn harvesting and a decline in quality, resulting in reliance on Northeast corn to meet feed demand [3][5]. - The transportation costs for Northeast corn are decreasing, enhancing its competitiveness in external markets, with reductions of 25%-50% reported for various routes [6][8]. - The market is expected to experience downward pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to an increase in supply and low-quality corn needing to be digested by deep processing enterprises [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, it is the period of concentrated supply of new-season corn. In October, the pressure of harvest and concentrated listing is relatively large. The supply-demand structure is temporarily imbalanced, leading to a situation where prices are more likely to fall than rise. The price of new-season corn has been declining. Since October, continuous rainy weather in the North China production area has led to a decline in corn quality, adding additional short-term price pressure. The production situation in the Northeast production area is good, with mainly sunny weather. After continuous declines, prices have recently stopped falling, mainly due to the excessive short-term decline. The maximum decline in the price of damp grain has exceeded 150 yuan/ton. Additionally, the decrease in the proportion of high-quality corn in the North China production area provides some support for the Northeast production area. Local deep-processing enterprises in the Northeast may initiate grain-locking actions, helping prices to stop falling. Overall, although not pessimistic about the medium- to long-term corn prices, currently it is still the peak period of new-season corn listing, and prices are still under pressure. Bullish factors need to accumulate and ferment, and it is difficult to say that prices will stabilize and rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the price performance at the end of the month and early November [1]. - The corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange took an important step in the bottom-finding process yesterday. Multiple contracts declined simultaneously. The main November contract fell below the 2,100-yuan mark, becoming the first corn contract this year to break through this level. The decline in far-month contracts weakened successively, and the month-spread structure steepened. The number of registered warehouse receipts increased significantly, highlighting the pressure on the spot market [1]. - The price of CBOT corn futures is consolidating at a low level, waiting for further guidance from the USDA's October supply and demand report [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bullish Factors - The import volume of corn and grains remains at a low level, providing a basis for the improvement of the medium-term corn supply-demand structure [5]. - The pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and it is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure passes [5]. - The purchasing sentiment in the Northeast production area has increased, and prices have stopped falling [5]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of production capacity regulation, which may affect the medium-term feed demand for corn [3]. - The release of the new-season supply pressure still needs a process, and prices are in the bottom-finding or bottom-grinding stage [3]. - In the past two days, there have been many trucks arriving in Shandong, and deep-processing enterprises generally purchase at reduced prices [3]. Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main Continuous Basis | Location | Corn Price & Basis | Today's Change | Location | Corn Starch Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2,150 | -20 | Shandong | 2,740 | -10 | | Shekou Port | 2,330 | -40 | Jilin | 2,550 | -10 | | Harbin | 2,020 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2,480 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main Continuous Basis | 58 | 13 | Shandong Main Continuous Basis | 339 | 21 | [3] Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-13 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2,125 | 2,092 | -33 | -1.55% | | Corn 01 | 2,125 | 2,106 | -19 | -0.89% | | Corn 03 | 2,140 | 2,125 | -15 | -0.70% | | Corn 05 | 2,204 | 2,192 | -12 | -0.54% | | Corn 07 | 2,216 | 2,209 | -7 | -0.32% | | Corn 09 | 2,226 | 2,226 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2,432 | 2,401 | -31 | -1.27% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2,430 | 2,402 | -28 | -1.15% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2,440 | 2,416 | -24 | -0.98% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2,531 | 2,515 | -16 | -0.63% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2,535 | 2,524 | -11 | -0.43% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2,578 | 2,573 | -5 | -0.19% | | Wheat Average Price | 2,462 | 2,464 | 2 | 0.08% | [3][6] U.S. Corn Prices and Import Profits | Item | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main Continuous | 410.5 | -3 | -0.73% | | | COBT Soybean Main Continuous | 1,008.25 | 1.25 | 0.12% | | | CBOT Wheat Main Continuous | 496.75 | -2 | -0.4% | | | U.S. Gulf Port Duty-Paid Price | 2,089.08 | -22.55 | -1.07% | 280.92 | | U.S. West Coast Duty-Paid Price | 1,940.85 | -16.5 | -0.84% | 429.15 | [27]

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月10日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 四季度处于新季玉米集中供应期，10月份收获以及集中上市压力较大，供需结构阶段性失衡导致价格易跌难 涨，新季玉米价格高开后一路走低； 连盘玉米期货震荡下跌运行，继续消化新季上市带来的供应压力，价格重心有进一步下移可能，关注因上量 冲击造成价格超跌带来的底部机会； CBOT玉米期价低位盘整，等待美国农业部10月供需报告的进一步指引； 【利多因素】 1、玉米及谷物进口数量维持低水平，为中期玉米供需结构改善提供基础； 4、10月7日，农业农村部召开会议，调度秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种情况。强调全力应对黄淮海地区持续连阴雨 天气影响，切实抓好秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种工作，及时协调解决基层困难，全力以赴做好黄淮海地区"三秋"生 产工作。 【利空因素】 1、生猪产业处于产能调控过程中，或中期影响玉米饲用需求； 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | 玉米 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | 玉米淀粉 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of increased production and potential price fluctuations following the National Day holiday. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - As of September 24, corn inventory at 96 major processing enterprises across 12 regions in China is approximately 2.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 20% [1] - The opening price for new season corn is higher than last year due to a combination of factors including reduced imports and strong downstream demand [1] - The anticipated corn yield for this year is expected to increase by about 10% year-on-year, with the highest yield in five years reported from recent field surveys [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - There is a potential for a seasonal rebound in corn demand in Q4, driven by high pig inventory levels and increased feedstock replenishment needs due to low current inventories [1] - The demand from the livestock sector is constrained by policies aimed at reducing breeding stock and current losses in farming profits, leading to cautious stocking behavior among feed manufacturers [2] - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption period for starch and alcohol, which may lead to a seasonal increase in demand from deep processing enterprises [1][2] Group 3: Price Outlook - Following the National Day holiday, an influx of new corn is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, with potential price declines anticipated [3] - Despite the expected supply pressure, a balance between supply and demand, along with policy interventions, may limit the extent of price declines, stabilizing prices near cost levels [4] - If corn prices fall to around 2000 yuan per ton, there may be a significant release of replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, providing upward price momentum [4]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米季报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，继续南美巴西、阿根廷增产之后，北半球的美国、乌克兰产 量预估再次增加，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境，国 际玉米价格将延续低位运行。国内方面，目前产情总体较好，预计产量较上年有 一定增长，且成本下降，未来上市压力较大。旧作来说，尽管粮源较少，但新旧 衔接问题不大，持粮商出货积极性较高。需求端来看，近期小麦与玉米价差有所 修复，后期饲料企业或调回玉米使用比例。但在养殖行业利润低迷且政策引导去 产能的预期下，其大幅增加库存动力有限。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外 部贸易环境复杂、居民收入增速放缓等多重不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差， 深加工利润不佳，行业开机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。总体来看，短期旧作 余粮偏紧，对现货及近端合约有一定支撑，但在新上市压力将近背景下，整体玉 米市场中期仍然是处于承压寻底阶段。不过，考虑到去年贸易商囤粮盈利较好， 25/26 年新玉米上市后贸易商逢低抄底意愿或有提升，从而限制玉米继续下跌空 间。操作上，偏弱震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

据对全国500个县集贸市场和采集点的监测，9月第3周（采集日为9月18日），全国玉米平均价格2.49 元/公斤，与前一周持平，同比下跌0.4%。主产区东北三省玉米价格2.32元/公斤，比前一周下跌0.4%。 （9月22日）今日全国玉米价格一览表 西南期货研报：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，陈粮较为紧俏，港口库存快速回归，库存 压力减退，基差偏强。1-7月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间；中储粮玉 米网拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，北方主产区玉米逐步开始收获，丰产预期较强，成本或下修， 玉米价格上方或有一定压力，或观望为宜。 【市场资讯】 9月22日，大商所玉米期货仓单30320手，环比上个交易日减少338手。 美国干旱监测报告显示，截至9月16日，玉米处于干旱区的比例为25%，一周前13%，去年同期26%。 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种:黄玉米 ;等级:3 ;水分:14% ; | 2400元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省/深圳市 | 广东蛇口港市场 | | 品种:黄玉米 ; ...

进口玉米拍卖成交情况也能从一定程度上验证饲用玉米需求的增加。进入9月份，进口玉米持续拍卖， 成交率明显回升。截至9月12日，进口玉米拍卖共进行22期，拍卖总量654万吨，成交量157万吨，平均 成交率24%。进入9月份，进口玉米拍卖量平均每期19.17万吨，环比8月降幅2.04%。但成交率升至 34%，较8月末最低成交率8%提高26个百分点。这既能说明市场上陈粮供应减少，也能说明饲料需求增 加。（备注：进口玉米拍卖的主要消费领域是饲料企业，深加工企业倾向于使用合同粮、消耗库存或采 购新粮） 综上所述，9-10月份东北陈粮供应收紧，且新粮有一定的后熟期，下游存在刚需，预计新粮集中上市前 东北优质养殖粮价格较坚挺，价格涨幅或在40-50元／吨，市场仍需轮换粮、进口玉米拍卖进行有效补 充。 分析其原因，虽然从需求端来看，养殖环节的刚需支撑东北及全国玉米均价上涨，但东北陈粮库存持续 减少，且明显低于去年同期水平，则是导致东北玉米价格强于全国市场平均表现的根本原因。 由于2024/25季东北玉米售粮进度整体表现为前快后慢的特点，进入9月份，贸易环节陈粮库存持续减 少，并降至近五年同期的较低水平。虽然8-9月份南方产区及 ...