Group 1 - The average purchasing price of corn by deep processing enterprises in Northeast China has significantly increased in November and December, driven by slow supply and rising demand, despite declining profitability for enterprises [3][13] - As of December 12, the average purchasing price of corn in Northeast China was 2136 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton or 6.37% since early November, contrasting with the previous year's trend [3][13] - The supply of corn in the region is tight due to slow increases in local production and significant outflow of corn to North China, exacerbating the supply situation [3][13] Group 2 - From mid-November to early December, the volume of corn arriving at deep processing enterprises in Northeast China has decreased, prompting many enterprises to raise prices to secure supply for production [5][15] - The average purchasing price of corn in Heilongjiang rose from 2008 yuan/ton to 2079 yuan/ton, a 3.54% increase, while the number of trucks delivering corn dropped by 85.19% [5][15][16] - Due to rising raw material costs, profitability has declined significantly in most sectors except for starch, with some enterprises reducing production capacity [5][16] Group 3 - December is a peak season for new grain listings, and deep processing enterprises are expected to actively build inventory, which will support corn prices [7][18] - The total purchasing volume of corn by deep processing enterprises in Northeast China is estimated to be around 2.12 million tons in December, reflecting a 15% decrease month-on-month and a 26% decrease year-on-year [7][18] Group 4 - The rising cost of corn has led to increased starch prices, but product price increases have been limited, resulting in reduced profitability for enterprises, particularly in the ethanol sector, which is facing significant losses [9][20] - As of December 11, the processing profit for the corn starch industry was between 25-34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46%-58%, while the ethanol industry reported losses of 244-405 yuan/ton [9][20][21] Group 5 - On December 12, the State Grain Reserve announced an auction for 10.31 million tons of imported corn, which will help alleviate local supply pressures [10][22] - The auction price for imported corn was set at a base price of 2000 yuan/ton, with all lots sold at a premium of 70-80 yuan/ton, which may reduce bullish market sentiment [10][22] Group 6 - Overall, while there is potential for upward price movement in the corn market due to demand from deep processing, the cost pressures and the influx of imported corn may lead to price declines [11][22] - The expected price fluctuation for corn in Northeast China in the latter half of December is projected to be stable, with a range of 20 yuan/ton [11][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The willingness of channels to hold corn inventory may reach a cyclical inflection point. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward due to factors such as the profit - making effect of traders' inventory in 2024/2025, losses from short - selling in 2025Q4, and the lack of a basis for a unanimous bearish view on new crops in 2025/2026 [1] - Policy is likely to be the key variable in the 2025/2026 balance sheet. The policy has a large amount of grain available for auction, and import policies have a greater impact on imported grains than import profits. The amount of policy grain auctions in the first half of 2026 will affect the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 [1] - Under the neutral assumption, at the end of the 2025/2026 period, the negative inventory phenomenon of channels is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. Corn may change from a net purchase of 5 million tons in the previous year to a net auction of 8 million tons. The auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 15 million tons, but it is still insufficient to fully make up for the remaining gap in corn [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Similarities Year after Year - Since 2023, the corn price has been oscillating downward. The seasonal characteristics of corn prices in recent years have shown high consistency: prices decline during the farmers' concentrated selling season and rise after the inventory - building demand is released. There is a verification period for the balance sheet near the end of the corn market year [13] - In 2025, the price generally followed the above - mentioned seasonal pattern, but the performance after November was different. The price increased counter - seasonally in November, mainly due to the re - correction of the balance sheet and the correction of the over - decline in 2024Q3 [15][18] 3.2 History Does Not Simply Repeat Itself 3.2.1 Unchanged Aspects - The basic pattern that the corn gap can be easily filled is expected to remain unchanged in the next two years. The 2026 corn market is not expected to deviate significantly from the traditional seasonal framework of the past three years. Policy variables are likely to be the most critical factor in the 2025/2026 balance sheet [21] 3.2.2 New Variables - In 2025, the market was more cautious than ever, and the channel inventory compression reached an extreme. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward [25] 3.3 Supply in 2025/2026: Low Inventory Carry - over vs. New Crop Yield Increase 3.3.1 New Crop Yield Situation - The view on the new crop yield situation has changed little compared with the quarterly report in September. It is still a bumper harvest but with quality differentiation. The yield increase mainly comes from Northeast China, followed by Xinjiang, and the yield in North China is expected to be flat with a slight increase [28] 3.3.2 Inventory Carry - over - There is a contradiction between large - scale grain supply at the grass - roots level and tight downstream inventory, indicating that the carry - over inventory may be significantly lower than expected. The possible reason is that the non - existent in - transit inventory was mis - counted. It is estimated that the commercial inventory carry - over in 2024/2025 decreased by more than 10 million tons year - on - year [29][44][45] 3.3.3 No Significant Selling Pressure, Tighter Balance Sheet, and Possible Cyclical Reversal of Channel Inventory - The yield increase may not cover the decline in inventory, so the supply - demand gap of corn in 2025/2026 may not narrow year - on - year. There is expected to be no significant selling pressure in the short - term. The phenomenon of negative inventory of traders at the end of the 2025/2026 market year is expected to decrease significantly [51] 3.4 Demand in 2025/2026 3.4.1 Deep - processing - The demand for corn deep - processing is better than expected in September. The price of cassava starch has risen due to floods in Thailand, and the market share previously replaced by cassava is gradually being recovered. Although the terminal demand for deep - processing is still weak, the overall decline in the total demand for corn deep - processing this year is likely to be small [52][61] 3.4.2 Energy Feed - Pig feed demand is expected to increase cyclically year - on - year, but the increase may be limited by the decline in the feed - to - meat ratio. Poultry feed demand is expected to decrease cyclically year - on - year. Overall, the total energy demand is expected to be flat with a slight increase [62][73][76] 3.5 Policy Variables 3.5.1 Wheat Purchase and Auction - In 2025, the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases of wheat to achieve supply - demand balance. In 2026, the new wheat is expected to have an oversupply. The larger the wheat auction volume in the first half of 2026, the more the corn gap will be filled in advance, and the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 will decline [79][80] 3.5.2 Directed Rice - The possibility of a large - scale auction of directed rice in 2025/2026 is low, and even if the auction starts, the reserve price may be high [89] 3.5.3 Corn Regulatory Reserves - The imported corn reserves have a certain de - stocking pressure, and the auction volume is expected to be about 6 million tons in 2025/2026 under the neutral assumption. The domestic corn regulatory reserves have no de - stocking pressure and have room for further reserve increase [90] 3.5.4 Imported Grains - In recent years, imports have been more affected by policies. In the new year, the supply of overseas corn is expected to be sufficient, and the main influencing factor for imported grains is still expected to be policy. The import volume of corn is expected to increase year - on - year on a low - base, while the import volume of miscellaneous grains is expected to decline year - on - year [96][100][101] 3.6 Expectations for 2026/2027: Slight Yield Increase + Cost Increase - The corn planting area in 2026/2027 is expected to be flat with a slight increase. Under the neutral expectation, the yield per unit area is expected to be basically flat year - on - year. The Heilongjiang port collection cost is expected to increase year - on - year and may return to over 2,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of a unanimous bearish view on new crops is expected to decrease, and the willingness of traders to hold grain may increase year - on - year [113][119][120] 3.7 Balance Sheet 3.7.1 Wheat Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - In the 2025/2026 wheat year, the feed demand increased year - on - year, and the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases. It is expected that the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 will be about 15 million tons, and most of it may flow into the feed market. Under the neutral expectation, wheat will have a restorative yield increase in 2026/2027 [125][126][127] 3.7.2 Corn and Energy Raw Material Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - The carry - over inventory of corn in 2024/2025 is significantly revised downwards, and the domestic corn supply in the new year is expected to decrease by about 4 million tons year - on - year. The import volume of corn is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, and the total demand change is expected to be relatively small. Corn is expected to have a net auction of about 8 million tons in the new year. The ending commercial inventory of corn in 2025/2026 is expected to increase by about 9 million tons year - on - year [128][129][133] 3.8 Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.8.1 Price Outlook - The absolute valuation of corn in 2025/2026 depends on the auction volume of policy grains and the increase in valuation due to the recovery of the channel's willingness to hold grain. Under the neutral assumption, the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 may not be sufficient to fully make up for the corn gap. The 07 and 09 contracts of corn may have a bottom support of 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the high point of the futures price may be 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have a seasonal decline in the future, and there is still room for the price to strengthen after the decline in 2026Q1 under the neutral and optimistic assumptions [137][138][140] 3.8.2 Investment Suggestions - In the spread strategy, the logic of the channel's inventory - building demand is expected to drive the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts to show a reverse spread during the farmers' selling season. In the unilateral strategy, short - term opportunities to short the 03 and 05 contracts at high prices can be considered, and long - term opportunities to long the 07 and 09 contracts at low prices can be considered. It is recommended to make decisions based on driving factors [142]

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices have shown an unusual upward trend since mid-October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests, primarily driven by significant changes in domestic and international corn supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a tightening supply situation, with domestic old grain stocks continuing to decline [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to persistent rainy weather, while Northeast corn quality is relatively better, adding regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant year-on-year growth in pig and poultry inventories, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were attributed to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing willingness as previous inventory replenishment phases concluded [1]. - The market sentiment shifted towards reluctance to sell, compounded by profit-taking activities, resulting in a significant price pullback [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that corn prices will remain in a high-level oscillation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks as farmers seek to repay loans and purchase new agricultural supplies [3]. - Despite short-term upward momentum potentially weakening, factors such as tight supply, increased winter logistics costs, and growing feed demand will continue to support prices [3]. - The acceptance of high-priced corn by downstream sectors remains low, and the price advantage of imported substitutes in southern markets may limit the upward potential for corn prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing an unusual price increase in October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests. This anomaly is attributed to significant changes in domestic and international corn supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a decrease in domestic corn inventory, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation even after the new harvest [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to adverse weather conditions, which has further pressured prices. In contrast, the Northeast region has better quality corn, increasing regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant growth in the number of pigs and poultry, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were observed due to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing intentions. The demand pull effect has weakened as companies completed their inventory replenishment [1]. - Analysts predict that the Northeast region is unlikely to see large-scale grain sales in late December, as farmers are reluctant to sell due to favorable storage conditions and supportive pricing policies [3]. - The corn price is expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks and increased supply [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. The recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to the combined effect of temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. Although the Northeast production area faces pressure from concentrated grain sales and downstream demand has not recovered significantly, factors such as poor grain flow, low inventory in the trading and downstream sectors, and possible strengthening of farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a strong - oscillating price trend during the traditional supply - pressure period. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [5][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of November, the price of the main corn contract rose from the previous low (2000 - 2100 yuan/ton) and then entered a high - level oscillation pattern due to lack of subsequent driving forces. Frequent snow and rain in the Northeast improved new - grain storage conditions, strengthened farmers' reluctance to sell, and restricted logistics, reducing the outflow of grain and supporting the corn price in the production area. However, downstream demand was weak, enterprise inventory was relatively sufficient, and losses in the breeding sector suppressed feed consumption, resulting in low market trading activity. The current price increase is supported by short - term supply - demand mismatches, and its sustainability and upward space need further observation [7]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows a Contango structure, with 01 at a discount to 05 and 05 at a discount to 09 [8]. 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose Supply in the Corn Market Lays the Foundation for Low Prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 282 million tons, an increase of 11.13 million tons compared with 2024. The Northeast had significant production increases, while the North China's output was flat due to weather. Since July 1, the auction of imported corn and the increasing substitution of wheat for corn in feed use have jointly promoted the transformation of the corn market from a structurally tight balance to an overall loose one [11]. - The new - season corn planting cost in the Northeast in 2025/2026 is 1078 - 1379 yuan/mu, a decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/mu compared with the previous year. After adding other costs, the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, but due to production and rent adjustments, it is reduced to 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is in the range of 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Although the national corn output has increased, there are still prominent regional and structural contradictions. In North China, about 20 - 30 million tons of corn cannot be used for feed due to quality problems, increasing the demand for Northeast corn. Logistics bottlenecks have also exacerbated the supply - demand mismatch between production and sales areas. Currently, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is about 19% and in North China is about 23%, and there will still be supply pressure from concentrated grain sales later [15]. - In October 2025, China imported 12.028 million tons of grain, and from January to October, the cumulative import was 118.775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%. In October, the corn import volume was 359,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. From January to October, the corn import volume was 1.2928 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.15%. The import volumes of wheat, sorghum, and barley also decreased significantly, indicating that domestic supply basically meets demand and the proportion of imported corn in the market has shrunk rapidly [16][17]. - In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4%, and due to weak downstream demand, wheat had a price advantage over corn, resulting in a substitution of 20 - 30 million tons in the feed sector. As the corn - wheat price difference reversed, the substitution effect of wheat weakened, and the diverted demand returned to the corn market [22]. 3.2.2 Downstream Demand Remains Rigid but Without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - Corn consumption is mainly concentrated in feed - breeding and deep - processing. The current downstream market shows "stable rigid demand but lack of significant growth momentum" [26]. - In the feed - breeding sector, since July, policies have been promoting the reduction of the inventory of breeding sows, but the process of capacity reduction is slow. As of September 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, and the inventory of breeding sows was still high. The pig index has fallen below the breeding cost, and the pig futures and spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the industry will gradually enter the capacity - reduction stage [27]. - In the deep - processing sector, after the new - season corn price dropped, deep - processing enterprises in the north and south generally turned from losses to profits. The deep - processing starch profits in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Shandong were about 81.92 yuan/ton, 41.04 yuan/ton, 33.06 yuan/ton, and - 76.06 yuan/ton respectively [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory at a Phased Low Increases Price Elasticity - As of November 21, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.4 million tons, and the inventory in Guangdong Port was 599,000 tons, both at a medium - low level in recent years. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain and traders' reluctance to sell, while the decline in southern port inventory reflects reduced arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory weakens the buffering effect of the market, making price fluctuations more sensitive to supply and demand changes [33][37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose, and the recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [39].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic corn prices is primarily driven by a reduction in market supply, influenced by farmers' reluctance to sell due to lower temperatures in Northeast China, which is expected to gradually change as prices rise [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Corn prices have been on the rise since November, with the main contract increasing by 7.78% over a month and a half, following a period of price decline earlier in the year [3]. - The official procurement plan initiated by the China Grain Reserves Corporation on October 16, with a purchase price of 2.06 yuan per kilogram, indicated a potential price bottom for corn [3]. - The increase in trade contract execution demand and the "north grain south transport" strategy have contributed to heightened demand, exacerbating supply shortages at northern ports [3][4]. Group 2: Farmer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Farmers are exhibiting strong reluctance to sell due to the onset of winter and rising planting costs, hoping to achieve better prices to cover increased costs for the next planting season [4]. - Prices in major production and sales areas have risen significantly, with Harbin's second-grade grain price increasing by 50 yuan per ton to 2110 yuan per ton, and prices in other regions also showing substantial increases [4]. Group 3: Regional Supply and Demand Conditions - The quality of local corn in regions like North and East China is poor, leading to increased demand for Northeast corn, which is of better quality and lower price [5]. - The reduction in corn imports, which are expected to be significantly below the 7.2 million ton tariff quota, has led to a shift from foreign trade to domestic trade, accelerating the market's grain turnover [6]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high price fluctuations due to ongoing farmer reluctance to sell, tight transportation capacity, and trade merchants' expectations of price increases [7]. - Key factors to monitor include weather conditions in Northeast production areas, merchant selling rhythms, market purchasing sentiment, and policy adjustments [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong, with the main contract price rising in a volatile manner and hitting a new high at the end of the month. The spot price first declined and then rose sharply, with regional supply - demand differentiation leading the market. The market's bullish sentiment was strong, but towards the end of the month, the upward momentum slowed. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Caution is needed for a potential market decline [5][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong. As of November 28, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a trading volume of 550,428 lots and an open interest of 959,620 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 447.75 cents/bushel, up 0.56% [5][12][17]. (2) Spot Price - In November, the national average corn price was 2,237 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In the Northeast, prices were strong; in North China, prices were high due to tight supply - demand; in the sales areas, prices continued to rise. The price increases in different regions were significant [7][21][23]. (3) Basis - As of November 28, the basis of the Dalian corn main contract was 46 yuan/ton. In November, the basis recovered from a low and expanded, with the increase in spot prices exceeding that of futures prices [25]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Multiple aspects of information are included, such as China's corn imports from Russia, grain production in India, corn consumption and exports in the US, grain exports in Ukraine, corn planting progress in Argentina and Brazil, and corn procurement results of Sinograin [27][28][31]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Sinograin Corn Auction - In November, Sinograin conducted 74 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 1,168,999 tons and an actual成交 volume of 415,790 tons, a成交 rate of 35.57%. It also conducted 4 corn sales auctions, with all 8,539 tons planned for trading being sold. There were no two - way trading or imported corn auctions [43][45]. (2) North - South Port Corn Inventory - As of November 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.156 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9025 million tons. The domestic and foreign trade corn inventories at Guangdong Port were 284,000 tons and 315,000 tons respectively [51]. (3) Feed Enterprise Inventory - As of November 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, up 3.73 days from October, a month - on - month increase of 15.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [55]. (4) Feed Market - In October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, down 4.2% month - on - month and up 3.6% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed decreased year - on - year [58]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Inventory - As of November 26, the total corn inventory of major domestic corn processing enterprises was 2.698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% [62]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Consumption - In November 2025, the estimated corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 5.93 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons from the previous month and 50,000 tons from the same period last year [67]. (7) Deep - processing Enterprise Startup Rate - In November, the startup rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise. The total output of 60 corn starch production enterprises was 1.3885 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 109,500 tons. The startup rate was 64.03%, up 5.05% month - on - month and down 6.3% year - on - year [71]. (8) Deep - processing Enterprise Profit - In November, the profits of corn starch enterprises improved. The average profits of corn starch hedging by - products in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month [77]. (9) Import and Export - In October 2025, the corn import volume was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500.00% and a year - on - year increase of 43.10%. The export volume was only 52,607 tons [80]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - In November, the average national corn starch price was 2,690 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from October. The firm corn price provided support, and the decline in syrup demand was offset by other industries. The rising prices of cassava and wheat starch boosted the substitution demand for corn starch [88]. (2) Pigs - In November, the average pig slaughter price was 11.67 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from October, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.57%. The market was in a downward trend, and although there was some support from pickling demand in December, supply - side pressure remained [92]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - The corn futures and spot prices rose in tandem in November, but the upward momentum slowed towards the end of the month. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Attention should be paid to the potential market decline. - Operational strategy: For single - side trading, gradually reduce long positions to avoid high - level callback risks; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][93][94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs in the market is relatively loose, and the situation of over - supply persists. It is expected that the short - term live pig price will have limited rebound. [5] - The price of corn continued to rise last week. Although the upward momentum may slow down, the price is still driven by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, increased procurement by the state reserve, and downstream enterprises' restocking. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 11,350 yuan/ton last week, a 3.73% decrease from the previous week's settlement price. [5] - Spot: The national average market price of outer - ternary live pigs was 11.74 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 yuan/kg. [5] - Profit: As of November 21, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 135.9 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 21.09 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 234.63 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 28.99 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.23, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. [5] - Market situation: The national live pig spot price first declined and then stabilized last week. The supply was relatively abundant, and the resistance of the breeding side to low prices increased, but the overall pressure to sell remained. The terminal demand had not increased significantly, and the support from the demand side was limited. [5] Corn - Futures: The C2601 contract of corn futures first declined and then rose last week, closing at 2,195 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase from the previous week's settlement price. [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,280.29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.31 yuan/ton. The prices at ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port all increased. [6] - Deep - processing consumption: From November 13 to 19, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 138.31 tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises decreased, and the weekly output of starch decreased, with the weekly operating rate dropping by 2.59%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased by 2.16%, and the weekly production increased by 3.21%. [7] - Inventory: As of November 19, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions decreased by 0.29%. As of November 21, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.01 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 714,000 tons. [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot price continued to rise last week. Logistics restrictions affected the supply of corn, and the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises remained low, with the purchase price being stable and slightly stronger. The operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased slightly, while that of alcohol enterprises continued to rise. Feed enterprises had relatively high inventory and mainly purchased high - quality dry corn. The price increase may slow down in the future, and the short - term upper pressure levels are 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market continued to be strong this week, with the upward trend slowing down. Supply convergence was the main driving factor, and the downstream's price - raising purchases promoted the price increase. The market has deviated from the state of strong supply and weak demand during the supply season. The price may be stable with intermittent pressure at the end of the year [1][2]. - The corn starch market was also strong this week. The increase in raw material prices provided support, and the supply was tight in some areas, leading to a slight increase in starch prices. However, the recovery of corn prices led to a contraction in industry profits [2]. - CBOT corn futures closed higher this week, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract, supported by good domestic demand and the expected reduction in yield per unit [2][63]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Corn supply was in the stage of inventory consumption, and the peak of concentrated selling pressure had passed. The supply - structure problem in North China caused by precipitation was prominent, and downstream demand was strong. The supply - demand structure was moving towards balance, and prices continued to rise [1]. - The price performance of different regions was differentiated. The Northeast region was stable with a weakening upward trend, the South Port was stable, and North China showed differentiation, with Shandong having the strongest upward trend [1]. - The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, standing above the 2200 - yuan mark [1]. - In the short - term, factors such as state - reserve purchases, low channel inventory, and reduced imports supported price increases. In the long - term, there was a tight supply - demand expectation, but in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might have a negative impact on corn feed demand [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The end of the retracement was more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continued to increase. The 01 contract continued to rise after consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether it could break through the annual - line pressure [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should pay attention to the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory could consider hedging part of their inventory at high prices [8]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: There were no recommended basis and spread strategies for now. For cross - variety arbitrage, it was not suitable for operation for the time being, and for the pig - grain ratio, arbitrage should be on the sidelines [8][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Corn hedging short positions were recommended to be reduced, and virtual inventory could be established at low prices (waiting to enter the market below 2100 yuan) [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: State - reserve purchases continued, the selling progress was fast, and farmers were reluctant to sell. Cold weather was conducive to grain storage, and the US government might introduce a subsidy plan [23]. - **Negative Information**: The IGC raised the global corn production forecast for 2025/26, and there were news of the release of old wheat and continuous auctions of imported corn [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Pay attention to the price changes and transaction results of CNGC's procurement and auctions, the price - supporting strength of state - reserve purchases in the Northeast, and whether price increases would stimulate selling pressure [23]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, and the starch market strengthened after adjustment. The trading volume of starch increased while the position decreased [24]. - **Fund Flow**: The total position and trading volume of the 01 contract of corn changed little, and the total position of the 01 contract of starch decreased slightly while the trading volume increased [25]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of Jinzhou Port was in a reasonable range and weakened slightly. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of corn continued to narrow, and the starch - corn spread widened [34][43][59]. - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures closed higher, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract [63]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between Dalian corn and US corn weakened this week [65]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking - Planting profit was better than last year, especially in the Northeast. Trade profit was improving, while deep - processing profit showed a slight decline [67]. - The basis of Jinzhou Port was neutral to weak, and the spot - futures price resonance increased. There was hedging profit for far - month contracts, but it was not recommended to enter the market for hedging [67]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The increase in domestic prices was smaller than that in foreign prices, and the import profit changed little [69]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, and the annual surplus in 2025/26 was expected to be 3.55 million tons [73]. - **Global**: The global supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, but the inventory - consumption ratio was decreasing [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Supply was gradually decreasing, and the selling pressure in the Northeast would be smaller. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China decreased, and there might be a shortage of high - quality corn [75]. - Procurement enthusiasm remained high, and state - reserve purchases were firm. Import volume decreased significantly, and the negative impact was not obvious [75]. - Port inventory increased slightly in the North and decreased in the South, and overall inventory was still at a low level [77]. - In the US, corn harvest was almost over, and there was a possibility of reducing yield per unit [79]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Consumption demand was good, and feed demand was supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening. However, in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might affect corn feed demand [81]. - Deep - processing demand was in a good state, but the growth trend was slowing down. Corn starch market was strong, alcohol demand remained high, and sugar - deep - processing products showed a slight recovery [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the corn futures market showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, with the main contract reaching a phased high on Friday. The market sentiment was relatively strong. In the short - term, the market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation. The current strong reluctance of farmers to sell and the obstruction of corn circulation, along with the significant depletion of downstream enterprise inventories and the release of rigid restocking demand, provide support for corn prices. However, the sharp increase in imported corn arrivals in October and the increasing expectation of wheat auctions may have an indirect impact on the corn market demand [8][79]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - The price of the domestic corn futures main contract C2601 first declined and then rebounded last week. As of the close on Friday, it was reported at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, with a trading volume of 823,020 lots and an open interest of 949,440 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 437.75 cents per bushel last week [14][19]. (2) Spot Price - The national average weekly price of corn last week was 2,243 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton. In the Northeast, prices in Jilin and Liaoning rose. In North China, some enterprises raised prices to attract supply. In the southern ports, prices increased, while in the northern ports, prices were stable after an initial rise [24]. (3) Basis - As of last Friday, the basis of corn in Dalian area against the main contract was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and it was at the historical average level seasonally [26]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Ukraine has completed 84% of its planned grain harvest area as of November 13, with a harvest of 47.937 million tons [27]. - The EU's 27 - country grain exports from July 1 to November 9 increased by 16% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 32% [27]. - The US Department of Agriculture's November report adjusted the US 2025/26 corn production, export, and ending inventory. The global corn production, usage, and export were also adjusted, with a slight decrease in ending inventory [27][28]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting progress as of November 12 was 36.6% of the expected area, slightly behind last year [28]. - There were various results from China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auctions and procurement in different regions from November 17 - 21 [29][30][31]. - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending November 13 was 2.053932 million tons, exceeding market expectations [30]. - Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting progress was 85% as of November 13, and the expected export volume in November is 6.36 million tons [30][34]. - South Korea's feed - related enterprises had multiple corn procurement activities [31][33][35]. - The IGC raised the 2025/26 global corn production forecast by 1 million tons to 129.8 million tons [36]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's Corn Auction - There were 17 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 200,916 tons and an actual成交 volume of 65,705 tons, a成交 rate of 32.7%. There were 2 sales auctions, with a 100%成交 rate. There were no trading in two - way and imported corn auctions [39][41]. (2) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of November 20, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 26.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 days, or 2.42%, but a year - on - year decrease of 9.58% [44]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - As of November 20, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.727 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.02% [50]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3831 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.34 million tons week - on - week. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [54]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup - Last week, the processing volume, output, and startup rate of the corn starch industry all decreased slightly. The weekly processing volume was 612,400 tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons from the previous week; the output was 315,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; and the weekly startup rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% [59]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Due to the rise in corn raw material prices, the production profit of downstream deep - processing enterprises decreased. The hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with the previous week [64]. (7) Import and Export - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons, or 43.1%. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.84 million tons, or 90% [67]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,691 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. Prices in different regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang had different changes [71][73]. (2) Pigs - Last week, the spot and futures prices of pigs continued to decline. The national average pig slaughter price was 11.55 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg, or 2.04%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.39% [78]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 (1)后市展望 - The short - term corn market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation, supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, restocking demand from downstream enterprises, but affected by increased imports and wheat auction expectations [79]. (2)操作策略 - For unilateral trading, hold long positions cautiously and verify the effectiveness of the 2,200 - yuan key level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [80].