Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent economic policies and credit rating changes in the U.S., highlighting the potential risks and opportunities in the commodity markets and U.S. debt dynamics. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating and Debt Dynamics - On May 16, Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first downgrade in 108 years [2]. - The downgrade triggered a re-evaluation of U.S. Treasury risks, leading to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields rising by 3 basis points and 30-year yields by 10 basis points [4]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach $1.7 trillion for FY2023, approximately 6.3% of GDP, creating a vicious cycle of rising interest rates and expanding deficits [8]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Implications - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" fiscal policy aims to extend tax cuts and increase defense spending while raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, potentially increasing federal debt by $3.06 trillion over the next decade [7]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with about one-third being short-term debt, which poses refinancing risks as interest rates rise [9]. - The current fiscal pressure is the most severe since the 1980s, with interest payments potentially exceeding military spending, impacting infrastructure and healthcare budgets [11]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - The article notes that the current "stagflation" state in the U.S. economy is likely to persist, leading to downward pressure on commodity prices, particularly for financial commodities [13]. - Recent fluctuations in oil prices indicate a pessimistic demand environment, despite temporary supply shocks [17]. - In the agricultural sector, there is a bullish sentiment for corn and wheat due to supply constraints, while the soybean oil market faces limitations on price increases due to fiscal constraints [20][21]. Group 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The article highlights the impact of U.S.-China interest rate differentials on the RMB, with current U.S. rates around 4.5% compared to China's 1%-2% [23]. - A potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB, which may attract global capital towards Chinese assets [23].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent cooling of the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction and the poor performance of Japanese bonds, signaling potential financial crisis risks [1][2] - It highlights the resurgence of stagflation and the failure of Keynesianism, drawing parallels to the 1970s economic turmoil [1][2] - The article critiques Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its implications for U.S. and Japanese debt levels, with Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio at 260% and U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion [2][3] Group 2 - The concept of "privileged currency" under MMT is examined, suggesting that the ability to print money is being challenged by rising bond yields, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5% [2][3] - The article argues that the illusion of "debt monetization" is being dismantled as inflation pressures shift to asset bubbles and currency volatility [3][4] - It emphasizes the historical context of Japan's economic policies and the potential consequences of reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5][6] Group 3 - The article notes the rise in gold prices as a reaction to the perceived failures of the modern monetary system, indicating a loss of confidence in sovereign currencies [4][5] - It discusses the implications of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the potential for a currency devaluation-type default, with estimates of a 30%-40% loss in purchasing power for investors [6][7] - The article warns of a potential financial crisis as foreign investment in U.S. debt declines, reminiscent of the 1971 "Nixon Shock" [6][7] Group 4 - The article concludes with a historical perspective on the cyclical nature of economic theories, emphasizing the importance of learning from past mistakes and the need for genuine economic recovery based on productivity and equity [7][8]

Core Concept - The article discusses the "market for ideas" theory and its limitations in understanding the evolution of economic thought, emphasizing the importance of both supply and demand in the production and acceptance of ideas [4][6]. Group 1: Market for Ideas Theory - The "market for ideas" theory posits that ideas function as a special commodity, with supply and demand dynamics influencing their production and acceptance [4]. - Idea providers, such as thinkers and economists, are motivated by reputation, status, and financial gain, while demanders include governments, businesses, and the public [4][6]. - Historical events, such as technological revolutions and political changes, can significantly impact the demand structure for ideas, leading to shifts in prevailing paradigms [4][6]. Group 2: Limitations of the Theory - The application of the "market for ideas" theory to economic thought faces challenges due to the complex interplay of social, economic, and political factors that influence idea evolution [6]. - Unlike natural sciences, where new theories often replace old ones, economic thought tends to have multiple competing schools coexisting over extended periods [6]. Group 3: Idea Value Chain - The article introduces the "idea value chain" model, which views the production and dissemination of ideas as a multi-step process involving raw material collection, concept construction, theory building, value transformation, and dissemination [8][9]. - Each step in the value chain can be seen as a sub-market with its own supply and demand dynamics, influencing the overall effectiveness of the idea's impact on society [8][9]. Group 4: Historical Examples - The rise of Marxism is cited as an example of a complete and effective idea value chain, where extensive empirical material was collected, leading to the development of a coherent theoretical framework and successful dissemination [9][10]. - In contrast, utopian socialism, represented by figures like Saint-Simon and Fourier, lacked a robust theoretical framework and effective dissemination mechanisms, resulting in limited real-world impact [10]. Group 5: Mechanisms of Change - The article outlines five typical patterns of change in the idea value chain, including upstream disruption, midstream reorganization, downstream feedback, communication revolutions, and multi-chain competition [23][25][26]. - Each pattern illustrates how shifts in societal needs, academic focus, or communication methods can lead to the emergence of new ideas or the reconfiguration of existing ones [23][25][26].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has begun to recover following the significant reduction of bilateral tariffs between China and the US on May 12, leading to a temporary strengthening of risk assets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1% and the Nasdaq increasing by 4.5% from May 12 to May 23 [3][10] - Despite the recovery in US equities, the dollar assets outside the US have not shown significant capital favor, with the dollar index declining by 2.6% during the same period, falling below the 100 mark [3][12] - The US credit rating was downgraded by Moody's on May 15, reflecting increased concerns over government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a complete downgrade by all three major rating agencies [4][14] - A large-scale fiscal spending bill was passed by the US House of Representatives on May 22, which is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade [5][15] - The combination of high inflation, high interest rates, and high debt levels in the US raises concerns about the sustainability of economic data, with potential adverse effects on the private sector [6][18] - Gold is viewed as a preferred asset in the current environment, with expectations that its value will continue to rise as market focus shifts back to fiscal and debt sustainability risks [6][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Economic Environment - The reduction of tariffs has led to a recovery in global risk appetite, with notable increases in US stock indices [3][10] - The dollar index has weakened, indicating a lack of significant capital inflow into dollar assets [3][12] Section 2: US Fiscal Policy and Credit Rating - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating reflects growing concerns over fiscal discipline and debt levels [4][14] - The passage of a major fiscal spending bill is expected to exacerbate federal debt levels significantly [5][15] Section 3: Market Reactions and Asset Preferences - The current economic environment characterized by high inflation and debt levels may lead to a deterioration of hard economic data [6][18] - Gold is increasingly seen as a safe-haven asset, with expectations for its price to rise as market concerns about fiscal sustainability grow [6][19]

2016年4月初，我刚开设微信公众号不久，便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多，人民币则经历了从 2005-14年的九年升值之后开始贬值，故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗？我对 于一致预期通常都持怀疑态度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单：各国为了应对经 济不振的难题，基本采取了超发货币的对策，美国也不例外，即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩，谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白，又奋 笔疾书，写了 《再论换美元不如买黄金》 ，以为可以平息争论，谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 ：李总，历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊，如何确定目前熊市已经走完？还有一个数据是，实物 投资金需求量和金价走势拟合度较高，一季度金价大涨，但实物投资金需求改善不大，那是否预示着金价 上涨是不可持续的？ 留言 2 ：黄金只有消费属性，与货币没有关系了，只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么？ 留言 3 ：为何巴菲特不买黄金？因为黄金不能下崽，没有利息，持有它只有成本，其盈利全靠高价卖给别 人。美国经济已经复苏，再来一个科技革命，黄金会休息十年。 留言 4 ： ...

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 2016 年 4 月初，我刚开设微信公众号不久，便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多，人民币则经历了从2005-14年的 九年升值之后开始贬值，故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗？我对于一致预期通常都持怀疑态 度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单：各国为了应对经济不振的难题，基本采取了超发货币的对 策，美国也不例外，即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩，谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白，又奋笔疾书，写了 《 再论换美元不如买黄金 》，以为可以平息争论，谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 ：李总，历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊，如何确定目前熊市已经走完？还有一个数据是，实物投资金需求量和金价走势拟合 度较，一季度金价大涨，但实物投资金需求改善不大，那是否预示着金价上涨是不可持续的？ 留言 2 ：黄金只有消费属性，与货币没有关系了，只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么？ 留言 3 ：为何巴菲特不买黄金？因为黄金不能下崽，没有利息，持有它只有成本，其盈利全靠高价卖给别人。美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a more reliable long-term investment compared to the US dollar, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal debt issuance and central bank bond purchases, leading to monetary expansion [3][4]. - The US Federal Reserve holds over 60% of its total assets in US Treasury bonds, while Japan's central bank holds an even larger proportion, indicating significant reliance on debt to manage economic imbalances [4]. - The general trend of currency depreciation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating over 90% since the Bretton Woods system ended [7][10]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with increasing demand for gold as a natural monetary asset due to concerns over paper currency inflation [10][18]. - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves significantly, with China's reserves rising from 2,235.40 tons at the beginning of 2024 to 2,279.57 tons by the end of the year, reflecting a trend of accumulating gold as a safeguard against economic uncertainty [19][20]. - The price of gold has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of nearly 30% in just four months, driven by fears regarding the stability of the US dollar and rising debt levels [22][23]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin is characterized by extreme volatility, making it less stable as a currency compared to gold, which has maintained its monetary properties for over three millennia [12][13]. - The historical performance of gold shows significant long-term appreciation, contrasting with Bitcoin's erratic price movements, which raises questions about its viability as a stable currency [12][23]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights a trend of low growth and high volatility in the global economy, suggesting that gold is an appropriate investment during such turbulent times [17][18]. - The increasing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate risks, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [18][23].