Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for September 2025, indicating a buy price expectation of 68.46 CNY/ton and a sell price expectation of 72.38 CNY/ton for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) [1] - The buy price index for CEA decreased by 3.92% to 171.15, while the sell price index fell by 4.81% to 163.31, resulting in a mid-price index drop of 4.38% to 167.03 [1] - The prices for three types of domestic green certificates (GEC) produced in 2024 and 2025 showed a comprehensive decline, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the largest drop [1] Group 2 - In August, the average closing price for CEA was 71.39 CNY/ton, down approximately 3% from July's average of 73.57 CNY/ton, indicating a downward trend in carbon prices [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased by about 9% to 55.26 million tons compared to July, with market trading stability improving significantly [2] - The release of the "Opinions" by the Central Committee and the State Council on August 25 aims to enhance the national carbon market, promoting a unified market and optimizing resource allocation efficiency [2][3]

Group 1 - The stock price of Jiaao Environmental Protection on August 25 was 66.55 yuan, down 0.45% from the previous trading day, with an opening price of 66.85 yuan, a high of 67.97 yuan, and a low of 64.50 yuan, with a trading volume of 32,030 hands and a transaction amount of 212 million yuan [1] - Jiaao Environmental Protection operates in the chemical products industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of environmentally friendly plasticizers and stabilizers, holding a certain market position in the field of environmental materials in Zhejiang [1] - A recent policy issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council aims to promote green and low-carbon transformation and strengthen the national carbon market, with a goal to cover major emission industries in the industrial sector by 2027 and establish a carbon trading market aligned with international standards by 2030 [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the new policy may present development opportunities for companies related to biomass fuels and biodiesel [1] - On August 25, Jiaao Environmental Protection experienced a net outflow of main funds amounting to 12.4683 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 33.7689 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The central government has issued a significant policy document to advance the construction of the national carbon market, marking the first central document in this field, which outlines a long-term development timetable and roadmap [1][2] - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, achieving breakthroughs by expanding to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, and issuing the first batch of certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][7] - As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of allowances reached 669 million tons, with a total transaction value of 45.93 billion yuan, indicating a robust market performance [2][7] Group 2: Carbon Footprint Management - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively working on establishing a product carbon footprint management system, which includes developing accounting standards and guidelines for carbon footprint calculations [3][4] - The government aims to enhance the management of carbon footprints by accelerating research on carbon footprint factors and establishing a comprehensive database [4][5] - A series of pilot projects and international cooperation initiatives are being explored to improve carbon footprint management and certification processes [6][11] Group 3: Financial Market and Carbon Trading - The carbon financial market is experiencing growth, with at least 18 financial institutions obtaining carbon trading qualifications, indicating increased participation and product diversity [11][12] - The government plans to expand trading participants in the mandatory carbon market while introducing more diverse trading products and enhancing regulatory oversight [11][12] - The voluntary carbon market has seen significant engagement, with 5,787 registered entities, including financial institutions and project owners, contributing to a dynamic trading environment [7][11] Group 4: International Cooperation and Global Trends - China is actively participating in the global carbon market development, contributing to international climate governance and sharing its experiences in carbon market construction [15][16] - The country is exploring cross-border carbon trading and establishing management systems to facilitate international cooperation in carbon markets [16] - The global trend towards carbon market mechanisms is supported by the implementation of the Paris Agreement, with China positioning itself as a key player in this arena [15][19]

Overall Requirements - The document emphasizes the importance of establishing a unified national carbon market to effectively address climate change while promoting economic development [2] - The main goals include achieving comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and establishing a robust carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [2] National Carbon Emission Trading Market - The plan includes expanding the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, and carbon emission characteristics [3] - A transparent carbon emission quota management system will be established, transitioning from intensity control to total volume control by 2027 [3] - The document outlines the need for a balance between carbon emission control and energy security, as well as the gradual increase of paid quota distribution [3] Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reduction Trading Market - The establishment of a comprehensive methodology for voluntary reduction projects is prioritized, focusing on areas with significant sustainable development benefits [5] - The document encourages the use of certified voluntary reduction amounts in various sectors, including government and enterprises, to offset carbon emissions [5] Enhancing Market Vitality - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, enhancing support for greenhouse gas reduction [6] - The introduction of new trading participants, including individuals and financial institutions, is planned to diversify market engagement [6] - Strengthening market regulation and monitoring to prevent market manipulation and ensure fair trading practices is emphasized [6] Capacity Building for Carbon Market - A management system that aligns with the development stages of the national carbon market will be established to enhance oversight and operational efficiency [7] - The document stresses the importance of accurate carbon emission accounting and reporting, with a focus on developing national standards [7] - It highlights the need for rigorous verification processes for carbon emissions to ensure the credibility of reported data [7] Organizational Implementation Support - Local governments are tasked with leading the implementation of the carbon market initiatives, ensuring compliance and effective management of emission quotas [9] - The document calls for the development of legal frameworks to support carbon market operations and enhance regulatory enforcement [10] - International cooperation and dialogue on carbon market mechanisms are encouraged to align with global climate change efforts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recently published document by the Central Committee and the State Council outlines a comprehensive plan for advancing the national carbon market, including a timeline, roadmap, and tasks for medium to long-term development [1] Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The document emphasizes the need to deepen the construction of the national carbon market by gradually expanding the mandatory market coverage based on industry development status, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics [1] Group 2: Enhancing Market Vitality - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to collaborate with financial institutions to explore and develop green financial products and services related to carbon emission rights and verified voluntary emission reductions, including policies for carbon pledging and carbon repurchase [1] Group 3: Improving Management Standards - The document calls for strict regulation of carbon emission verification, improvement of technical standards for key industries, and enforcement of responsibilities for major emission units in carbon accounting and reporting, alongside enhanced oversight of carbon emission data quality and strict penalties for fraudulent activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the Chinese government's plan to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, aiming for optimal resource allocation and maximum efficiency in carbon emissions management by 2030 [1]. Group 1: Goals and Objectives - By 2027, the national carbon trading market will cover major industrial sectors, and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas [1]. - By 2030, a comprehensive carbon trading market will be established, featuring a combination of free and paid allocation methods, with a transparent and unified approach that aligns with international standards [1]. Group 2: Market Development and Participation - The carbon market will expand to include more industries beyond the current four (electricity, steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals), based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [2]. - The introduction of qualified individuals into the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market and the establishment of carbon pledge and repurchase policies are effective measures to broaden the trading participant base [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Oversight - The government will implement a combination of free and paid carbon allocation methods, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations while preventing non-compliant carbon assets from entering the market [3]. - Strengthening regulatory oversight of trading activities is essential, including the establishment of risk assessment and management systems for compliance among major emitters [3]. Group 4: Legal and Institutional Framework - Ongoing legislative research is focused on improving the management of voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading, enhancing the efficiency of fund clearing mechanisms, and reducing transaction costs in the carbon market [4]. - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system engineering project that requires a balanced approach between government regulation and market dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The government aims to effectively manage the relationship between government and market, ensuring proper regulation while allowing market autonomy in the context of carbon market development [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Development Goals - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market will cover major industrial sectors, and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas [1] - By 2030, a comprehensive national carbon emission trading market will be established, featuring a combination of free and paid allocation methods, with a transparent and unified system that aligns with international standards [1] Group 2: Market Mechanisms and Participation - The carbon trading market is expected to enhance the awareness of low-carbon development, promoting the idea that carbon emissions incur costs while carbon reductions yield benefits [2] - Future expansions of the carbon market will include more industries beyond the current four (electricity, steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals), based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [2] - The introduction of individual participants and the establishment of policies for carbon pledges and repurchases are seen as effective measures to broaden the trading community [2] Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Oversight - The government will implement a mixed allocation method for carbon emission quotas, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations while preventing incompatible carbon assets from entering the market [3] - Strengthening regulatory oversight of trading activities is crucial, including the establishment of risk assessment and management systems for compliance among major emitters [3] - Ongoing legislative research aims to enhance the management of voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading, improve the efficiency of fund clearing mechanisms, and reduce transaction costs in the carbon market [4] Group 4: Systematic Approach and Integration - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system project that requires a problem-oriented and goal-oriented approach, balancing various relationships such as market and government, long-term and short-term objectives, and domestic and international considerations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening the Construction of the National Carbon Market" marks the first central document in China's carbon market sector, outlining a medium to long-term development roadmap and tasks for the national carbon market [2] Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has formed a multi-level and relatively complete regulatory system over four years, with an expanding coverage of key industries, now including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which together account for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1] - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market reached 680 million tons, with a transaction value of 47.41 billion yuan, while the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction market recorded a cumulative transaction of 2.49 million tons and a value of 210 million yuan [1] Group 2: Future Directions and Strategies - The plan emphasizes expanding the coverage of the mandatory carbon market based on industry development status, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics, transitioning from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [2] - The allocation of carbon allowances will shift from entirely free to a combination of free and paid allocations, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations [2] - The development of voluntary carbon markets will be promoted, establishing a comprehensive methodological system for key areas such as ecosystem carbon sinks and methane reduction [2] Group 3: Financial Integration and Regulation - Collaboration with financial institutions will be explored to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions and certified voluntary reduction volumes, including policies for carbon pledges and buybacks [2] - Strict regulations on carbon emission verification will be enforced, enhancing the accountability of key emission units for carbon accounting and reporting, while improving the quality of carbon emission data through comprehensive supervision [3] - Continuous improvement of relevant laws and regulations will be pursued to strengthen the institutional foundation for carbon market construction, aiming for a more effective, vibrant, and internationally influential national carbon market [3]

Market Dynamics - A-shares ended their continuous rise, showing a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.75% [2] - Over 2800 stocks rose, with a trading volume of 2.71 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease of over 460 billion yuan from the previous trading day, it still indicates a high level of activity [2] - Consumer electronics stocks were active, with companies like GoerTek hitting the daily limit, and the Huawei supply chain also performing well [2] Macro Policy - Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies, allowing eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring and increasing the personal housing provident fund loan limit, effective from August 26, 2025 [3] - Beijing recently lifted purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, signaling a positive policy shift in major cities [3] - The Central Committee and State Council issued opinions on promoting green and low-carbon transformation, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors in the national carbon market by 2027 [3] Industry Trends - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 173 video game titles in August 2025, including 166 domestic and 7 imported games, marking a new monthly high for 2025 [5] - The summer box office for films has surpassed 11 billion yuan, with "Nanjing Photo Studio" leading at 2.7 billion yuan [6] Corporate Dynamics - Pinduoduo reported Q2 2025 revenue of 103.98 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, but net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders fell by 4% [7] - Muyuan Foods released its semi-annual report, achieving revenue of 76.46 billion yuan, a 34.46% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, up 1169.77% [7] - Huawei is set to launch a new AI SSD product on August 27, with its annual conference scheduled for September 18-20, 2025, in Shanghai [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. However, with anti - involution speculation, there may be variables. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term [2]. - For glass, the current situation is not optimistic. Although there is a small increase in deep - processing orders in the downstream, the overall inventory is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract at low levels, but short - term long positions have limited opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1311 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1173 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 138 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest: 1,399,714 lots, up 13,450 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1,196,769 lots, down 4,653 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 313,904 lots, up 11,584 lots; glass top 20 net positions: - 245,653 lots, down 10,925 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 9,313 tons, up 249 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2,099 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 111 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 189 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 91 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; glass basis: - 109 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,215 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large plate: 1,064 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large plate: 1,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 88.48%, up 1.16 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 63,606,000 weight boxes, up 180,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 35,206 million square meters, up 4,841.68 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 25,034 million square meters, up 2,467.39 million square meters [2]. Industry News - National policies include improving domestic demand policies, promoting green - low - carbon transformation, and supporting forestry development [2]. - Soda ash supply is increasing, but profit recovery is not sustainable. Glass production is at a low level due to the impact of high - temperature weather on the real - estate industry [2]. - Shanghai has optimized real - estate and housing - loan policies [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will be under pressure. Although there may be speculation about supply cuts, the de - stocking process will be repeated [2]. - Glass supply remains stable at a low level, demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the inventory is rising slightly. The de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of restocking [2].