热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 2025-12-18，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于106800元/吨，收于106160元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变 化-0.79%。当日成交量为1013916手，持仓量为672711手，前一交易日持仓量668589手，根据SMM现货 报价，目前基差为-10850元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15636手，较上个交易日变化0手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价95300-99800元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨，工业 级碳酸锂报价93900-96000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1340美元/吨，较前一日变 化10美元/吨。据SMM消息，从市场实际成交来看，当前价格水平已明显超出下游大多数材料厂的接受 范围，市场成交极少，主要依靠部分企业的刚需采购支撑。从供需角度来看， 供应端锂盐厂生产稳 定，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持约3%的环比增长。需求端，新能源汽车与储能市场的旺盛表现 继续为需求提供底层支撑，但电芯及正极材料排产在12月预计环比略有下滑。 ...

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 104094 H 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -8401 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 98869 外购锂云母精矿利润 -5595 行业 12月16日，根据《矿产资源法》《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记管理的通知》等相关要 官春市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等27宗采矿许可证子以注销。目前，宜春市自然资源局已对拟注销的27宗采矿许可证进行 期(30个工作目)满后予以公告注销。注销后,生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 十 中 求方面，终端（储能+新能源车）旺季持续，材料端排产基本持平，社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅，供给方面，12月排产小幅 叠加宜春市拟取消27宗已到期矿山采矿权许可证，虽对基本面影响有限，但对情绪产生提振。整体看，需求形成碳酸锂价 叠加市场情绪提振,建议中期偏多对待。事件型的上涨属短期行情,短期有回落风险,建议投资者谨慎追高。 免 贡 告申的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不拘成个人投资政 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 供需两旺，碳酸锂维持高位震荡 碳酸锂整体维持偏强震荡态势，虽盘中受短期压力回调，但长期上涨趋势的支撑因素仍在。目前，供应端的不确 定性是支撑价格偏强的关键因素之一，国内外供应干扰消息层出不穷。整体来看，短期大概率维持高位震荡，需 聚焦产能释放节奏与资金动向，警惕供需边际变化带来的波动加剧。 单边：短期观望为主 跨期：无 风险 市场分析 2025-12-16，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于100600元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.27%。当日 成交量为597317手，持仓量为666027手，前一交易日持仓量662185手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5170元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15286手，较上个交易日变化26手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94000-97700元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价92700-94000元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1260美元/吨，较前一日变化40美元/吨。据SMM 方面消息，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强。 ...

11月以来，碳酸锂期货价格经历了加速向上后宽幅震荡调整的过程，主力合约在突破100000元／吨后， 出现回落调整。目前，盘面宽幅震荡，市场分歧加剧，日内波动较大。碳酸锂期货主力合约11月涨幅接 近20%，12月9日收盘价为92800元／吨。 短期基本面"强现实"给碳酸锂价格提供支撑，供需大幅超预期的情况在年内比较难出现。在供需紧平衡 逻辑下，碳酸锂价格易涨难跌。但逐步进入淡季后，基本面的新增驱动可能减弱。中期来看，在经历了 几年的价格下行周期后，碳酸锂价格在估值和情绪层面都已经具备上涨基础，而本轮储能需求的爆发提 供新的驱动，明年价格中枢有望上移。 短期基本面有支撑 供应方面，11月我国碳酸锂产量为95350吨，环比增加3090吨，同比增长49%。12月碳酸锂排产量预计 继续增加，或升至98210吨的高位。前期检修的锂辉石和云母提锂生产线部分恢复，部分小型代工厂提 供主要增量。受天气影响，盐湖端仍有小幅减量预期。另外，回收端小幅下降。 宁德时代枧下窝锂矿复产预期已经部分兑现，虽然目前市场对实际复产节点仍有分歧，但是近期复产流 程已有所推进，复产实际落地后，短期碳酸锂供应或得到一定补充。 近期锂矿价格与锂盐价格 ...

四川锂行业调研暨碳酸锂近期行情汇报 20251128 摘要 展望 2026 年及未来中长期阶段，我们对碳酸锂价格持乐观态度。主要原因如 下： 基于上述分析，我们认为后续碳酸锂价格仍有持续上涨潜力，并建议继续关注 相关标的。然而，需要注意的是当前阶段碳酸锂价格波动可能受到资金等多方 面因素影响，因此短期内可能出现一定幅度波动，但长期来看整体看好该板块。 1. 长期供需平衡表显示，即使 2026 年行业供需无法恢复到完全平衡或紧 缺状态，但整体状况将比 2025 年更加健康。 2. 随着行业总体规模扩大，对安全库存需求逐步增加，因此预计未来碳酸 锂库存系数将更低。 3. 行业内优质公司的产能进展符合预期，并按计划顺利建成投产。 从现在到农历春节前，碳酸锂商品价格可能会呈现震荡走势。主要原因包括以 下几个方面： 1. 供给端：目前底价尤其是期货盘面上持续在 9~10 万元的高价区间，对 应的锂矿价格也上涨至这一水平。海外矿山在高利润空间下，产销和发 往中国的运量都在持续增加。有色网提供的周度产量和排产数据也显示 总量呈现持续增加态势。此外，国内某些大矿复产节奏明确，这将进一 步增强供给预期。 2. 需求端：下游电信 ...

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Price Trends and Short-term Expectations - Current lithium carbonate price has reached 100,000 yuan/ton, expected to continue rising above this level but not exceeding 110,000 yuan in the short term [1][14] - Anticipated price fluctuations before New Year likely to be between 100,000 and 150,000 yuan, with a concentration around 120,000 yuan [1][14] - First quarter price expected to fluctuate within 150,000 yuan, primarily between 100,000 and 120,000 yuan [2][14] Group 2: Price Support Logic and Supply-Demand Structure - Key factors supporting short-term prices include raw material supply shortages, with 45%-50% of domestic lithium carbonate capacity relying on ore extraction, and significant raw material being locked by leading companies [3][15] - Lithium carbonate inventory has dropped below 100,000 tons, with a production-to-sales ratio close to 1:1, indicating production may not meet export demand [3][15] - Current supply-demand gap is slightly tight, with a shortfall of only 50,000 to 100,000 tons, suggesting price increases are more driven by market sentiment than actual supply constraints [4][19] Group 3: Industry Chain Dynamics and Inventory Situation - Some lithium carbonate factories are beginning to stockpile, reducing sales from 10,000 tons to 8,000 tons while retaining 2,000 tons [5][16] - Australian mines, initially expected to resume operations in Q2 2026, may do so earlier in Q1 2026 due to current price support [5][19] - Environmental compliance issues are delaying the resumption of operations at Jiangxi mica mines [6][24] Group 4: Downstream Demand and Operating Rates - Average operating rates for iron lithium factories are around 50% before August 2025, increasing to approximately 80% thereafter [7][18] - Major companies like CATL have reached operating rates of 100%-110% as of November 2025, with plans to maintain high production levels into Q1 2026 [7][18] - Iron lithium total capacity is projected to be between 4.5 million and 5 million tons by 2025, with demand expected to exceed 5 million tons [8][18] Group 5: Supply and Cost Curve for Lithium Carbonate - Supply predictions for 2026 indicate that at a price of 80,000 yuan/ton, supply will be around 1.6 million tons, increasing to 1.9 million tons at 120,000 yuan/ton [10][21] - Domestic salt lakes are expected to add only 30,000 to 40,000 tons of capacity, while overseas salt lakes will contribute some incremental supply [10][19] Group 6: Long-term Contract Prices and Trading Strategy Suggestions - Long-term contract prices for major companies are expected to rise to over 85,000 yuan/ton in Q1 2026, with potential short-selling opportunities if prices exceed 100,000 yuan [12][25] - Current market conditions suggest that short-selling is not advisable due to high risks associated with hedging pressures [12][15] Group 7: Lithium Recycling Market Situation - Lithium recycling volume is projected to be around 15,000 tons in 2025, with current operations facing losses [13][23] - By 2030, recycled lithium is expected to account for 10% of total market supply, driven by increasing battery retirements [13][23] Group 8: Other Key Industry Chain Information - Phosphate iron market is currently facing losses, with some companies considering price increases [8][28] - Battery equipment manufacturers are receiving new orders, indicating expectations for sustained high operating rates in 2026 [8][28]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 70% from their low earlier this year, and a tight supply-demand balance is expected in 2024, leading to a range-bound price pattern [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are a key driver of price increases, with domestic lithium carbonate social inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of 22,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days dropping to a record low of 28.1 days [3]. - High demand for lithium chemicals is evident, with a weekly inventory decline of approximately 4,000 tons reported by Goldman Sachs, and concerns over the slow recovery of the Ningde Times Yichun lithium mine, which previously contributed about 7,000-8,000 tons of lithium carbonate monthly, representing about 10% of domestic demand [3]. - Overseas supply from South Africa and Nigeria is arriving at low costs, with lithium spodumene priced around $500 per ton, although some projects in Mali are deemed economically unviable [3]. Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that lithium carbonate pricing will stabilize between 80,000-100,000 RMB per ton (approximately $10,000-$12,500 per ton, excluding VAT) due to the current supply-demand dynamics [3]. - Despite positive demand prospects and declining inventories, an increase in elastic supply is expected, particularly from Africa, which may lead to further supply increases if prices rise [4]. - The average price of lithium carbonate is projected to be $8,900 per ton by mid-2026, driven by strong domestic demand and supply constraints [4]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding future price trends, noting that while the current price surge is driven by inventory depletion and energy storage demand, the pace of lithium mine recoveries in Jiangxi should be monitored closely [5][6]. - Concerns are raised about a potential seasonal decline in energy storage cell demand, with October's production exceeding sales for the second consecutive month, indicating a possible weakening in demand [6]. - The current high trading volume of lithium carbonate futures suggests that while short-term price increases may continue, the sustainability of the supply-demand balance needs further validation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 70% from their low point earlier this year, and a forecast of a "tight balance" in supply and demand for the next year [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures have shown an upward trend, reaching a peak of 102,500 RMB/ton, marking a new high for the year [1]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the spot market is currently 99,250 RMB/ton, which is a 65% increase from the year's low of 59,900 RMB/ton [1][3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply constraints are a key driver of the price increase, with domestic lithium carbonate social inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of 22,000 tons [3]. - The average monthly production of lithium carbonate from the Ningde Times Yichun mine, which was previously around 7,000-8,000 tons, has been affected by production disruptions, raising concerns about short-term supply [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that while demand remains positive and inventory continues to decline, an increase in elastic supply is expected if prices rise, leading to a likely price range of 80,000-100,000 RMB/ton (approximately 10,000-12,500 USD/ton) [3][4]. - The market is expected to remain in a price range until mid-2026, when domestic supply constraints and strong demand are projected to tighten the market, with an average price forecast of 8,900 USD/ton for lithium carbonate in 2026 [4]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding future price trends, noting that while the current price surge is driven by inventory depletion and storage demand, the pace of lithium mine restarts in Jiangxi should be monitored [5][6]. - Concerns have been raised about a potential seasonal decline in demand for energy storage cells, with production exceeding demand for two consecutive months [6].

但对于后续碳酸锂价格走势，多位分析师表达了谨慎的态度，称仍需持续跟进江西锂矿的实际复产节奏，以及复产政策落地时的实际执行力度，供应恢复或 进一步抑制价格上行空间。 新华财经上海11月20日电（葛佳明） 20日，碳酸锂期货主力合约再度延续上行趋势，盘中涨幅一度达到4%，最高触及102500元／吨，刷新年内高点，近一 周涨幅超17%，拉长时间看，若从年内低点58400元／吨计算，碳酸锂期货价格反弹超70%。 从现货价格看，碳酸锂价格出现"一天一个价"的情况。20日早盘，电池级碳酸锂中间价为99250元／吨，环比上一交易日上涨1700元／吨，11月以来涨幅超 过18%，较年内59900元／吨的低点上涨幅度则达到65%；工业级碳酸锂中间价为97750元／吨，环比上一交易日上涨1500元／吨。 中信建投期货分析师张维鑫对新华财经分析表示，目前碳酸锂价格上涨主要受两方面因素推动，一是自8月以来碳酸锂市场持续去库存，市场供需关系改 善，二是受储能市场需求推动，市场预期明年碳酸锂需求面将进一步好转，推动了价格持续走强。 多位分析师均表示，碳酸锂价格的本轮上涨，本质上是供需关系从"供给过剩"向"紧平衡"快速切换的结果。尽管当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged, breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, prompting warnings from exchanges and institutions about short-term risks in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent increase of 65.63% since hitting a low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 this year [1]. - As of November 19, the mainstream price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 97,550 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Year-to-date, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded by 56% from a low of 59,900 yuan/ton in June [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strong demand for lithium carbonate is driven by the robust performance of the electric vehicle battery sector, with a 10.7% month-on-month increase in domestic battery installations in October [3]. - The supply side has not kept pace with demand, leading to a depletion of lithium carbonate inventories, which decreased by 3,481 tons week-on-week [2][3]. - Forecasts suggest that lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by about 250,000 tons [4]. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The surge in lithium carbonate futures has positively impacted lithium mining stocks, with companies like Jinyuan Co., Daway Co., and Rongjie Co. hitting their daily price limits [4]. - The overall sentiment in the lithium industry remains optimistic, with expectations of continued price increases if demand growth exceeds 30% in the coming year [4].