【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据美国彭博社报道，加拿大稀土生产商Neo Performance Materials公司首席执 行官拉希姆·苏莱曼当地时间24日表示，鉴于中国的技术专长和竞争力，中国应继续作为稀土产品全球 供应链中的重要一环。稀土供应链必须包括中国，脱离中国"很有挑战性"。 彭博社称，苏莱曼当天在加拿大多伦多举行的一场稀土会议间隙接受采访时发表了上述言论。会议的主 要议题是如何构建不依赖中国的供应链。 "中国将继续成为这一领域的主导者，坦率地说也应当如此。"苏莱曼称，"当一个行业寻求管控集中化 风险时，我认为这是思考行业变革的正确思路。""（但）当这个行业开始谈论脱离中国时，坦率地讲， 我们认为这很有挑战性。" 在今年7月24日举行的中国外交部例行记者会上，发言人郭嘉昆在回答相关问题时表示，在稀土问题 上，中方的政策符合国际惯例。我们愿同有关国家和地区继续加强出口管制领域对话合作，共同维护全 球产供链稳定与安全。 彭博社称，中国在稀土领域拥有数十年积累的强大掌控力。西方虽然试图削减对华依赖，但现实是中国 产品更实惠，而且中国满足客户特殊需求的能力令人惊叹。全球超过90%的稀土磁铁产自中国。 报道称， ...

«——【·前言·】——» 既然从初加工角度无法解决问题，西方国家就只能另寻他路摆脱对中国稀土的依赖，日前七国集团 （G7）和欧盟，打算动用行政手段干预稀土供应链，改变被中国卡脖子的状况。 这不是简单的涨价，而是中国用技术壁垒和环保标准筑起的护城河。 以中重稀土为例，钐、钆、铽等 元素是制造电动汽车电机和导弹制导系统的核心材料。 «——【·王八拳第一式·】——» 面对美国总统特朗普挑起的贸易战，中国祭出稀土出口管制政策回应，迫使整个西方世界认识到试图用 经贸手段封锁、遏制中国发展行不通，没有金刚钻根本干不了瓷器活。 七国集团（G7）在加拿大召开峰会。会议期间，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩掏出一块稀土磁铁，指着它 说这是"中国威胁"的证据。她身后的大屏幕上，赫然显示着中国在全球稀土供应链中的占比数据——开 采量69%、精炼产能90%、重稀土加工100%垄断。这组数字像一把利刃，刺破了西方世界的"去中国 化"幻想。 于是西方国家转而开始在稀土问题上做文章，提出了鼓励西方企业开采和提炼，从废品中重新提炼稀土 磁铁等举措，但无论如何在中国的技术优势面前，这些举动都收效甚微，不可能解决西方国家重度依赖 中国稀土的现状。 价格下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the conference in Toronto was focused on building a supply chain that does not rely on China for rare earth materials [1] Group 1: Industry Perspectives - Rahim Suleman, CEO of Neo Performance Materials, expressed disagreement with the conference's theme, stating that China should continue to play a dominant role in the global rare earth supply chain due to its technological expertise and competitive advantages [2][3] - Suleman highlighted the complexity of the rare earth supply chain, which includes mining, refining, and magnet manufacturing, with China controlling 91% of rare earth refining, 87% of oxide separation, and 94% of magnet production globally [2] - He emphasized that replacing China in the rare earth sector is challenging, as China offers lower prices and meets specific customer needs effectively [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Neo Performance Materials operates in the chemical and metal sectors, with production facilities in Asia, Europe, and North America, and has recently invested $75 million to establish a magnet factory in Estonia, which is expected to meet the demand for magnet components for up to 1 million vehicles annually [5] - The Estonian factory primarily produces neodymium magnets, which are included in China's export control list, highlighting the geopolitical implications of rare earth supply chains [5] - Neo is positioned to be the first Western company to achieve mass production of rare earth materials, which has garnered positive attention from Canada and the EU [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The G7 and EU are considering setting a price floor for rare earths and imposing tariffs on certain Chinese rare earth exports as part of their strategy to enhance local production and reduce reliance on China [6] - There are ongoing discussions within the G7 regarding increasing regulatory scrutiny on foreign investments in critical minerals, with some members advocating for geographical restrictions on sourcing rare earths [6] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has reiterated that its policies on rare earths align with international norms and expressed willingness to engage in dialogue to maintain global supply chain stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is attempting to balance relations between the US and China while implementing sanctions against both Russia and 12 Chinese companies, which heightens tensions in EU-China relations and introduces uncertainty into the global economic landscape [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Sanctions and Trade Relations - The 19th round of sanctions proposed by the EU targets not only Russian enterprises but also includes Chinese companies, which complicates the EU's trade relationship with China [1][3]. - Despite the sanctions, EU countries continue to import Russian energy, highlighting a double standard in their approach to sanctions [3]. - In August, China's exports of rare earth magnets to the EU increased by 21%, reaching 2,582 tons, indicating a temporary improvement in trade relations [1]. Group 2: China's Response and Economic Strategy - In retaliation to the EU's sanctions, China imposed a temporary anti-dumping tax of 62.4% on EU pork and related products, significantly impacting the EU's economy, as pork exports to China account for 55% of the EU's total exports in this category [5]. - China is leveraging its control over rare earth refining technology, which constitutes 90% of global capabilities, to assert its influence in the supply chain [5][8]. - The delays in export approvals for rare earths from China indicate a strategic move to maintain control over this critical resource [5]. Group 3: Future Implications for EU-China Relations - The ongoing trade friction between the EU and China is a critical battleground, with the EU needing to choose between aligning with the US or seeking cooperative relations with China for sustainable economic development [7][8]. - The competition in key sectors such as rare earths and electric vehicles is expected to continue, with China actively participating in rule-making rather than being a passive player [8]. - The EU's fluctuating stance in the US-China rivalry could significantly impact its economic interests and its role in international relations in the 21st century [8].

事关稀土，美国爆出大动作。 今晚，美股开盘后，美股稀土概念股全线大涨，USA Rare Earth股价一度大涨超15%。据最新消息，美国政府正在商讨设 立一只规模达50亿美元的矿业投资基金，这将是美国迄今在确保关键矿产供应方面潜在的最大动作。有分析指出，如果 该基金顺利成立，稀土或成关键投资领域之一。 美股整体市场方面，三大指数高开低走，截至北京时间22:20，道指跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.1%，纳指微跌0.01%。另 外，受美联储降息预期升温影响，美元则大幅杀跌，美元指数跌0.63%，跌破97关口，现报96.7439；现货黄金短线拉 升，一度升破3700美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 特朗普政府和Orion Resource Partners均强调，西方政府需要在矿产市场中发挥更积极的作用。 管理约80亿美元资产的Orion Resource Partners此前曾与主权财富基金合作，目前正在关注刚果民主共和国的交易——该 国是全球最大的钴供应国。拟议中的美方合作模式将与此前类似，双方各出资一半，共同组成50亿美元总规模。 DFC成立于特朗普第一任期内，已支持多个矿业项目，包括莫桑比克石墨生产的贷款以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting concluded that China's dominant position in the rare earth market, particularly in reserves and refining, is unlikely to be shaken in the short term [2]. Supply Side - China contributes 60-70% of global rare earth mining and holds about 90% of refining capacity, with a technological lead of at least 20 years over foreign competitors [3]. - The refining cost in China is only one-third of that of overseas counterparts, creating a significant barrier to entry for other countries [3]. Demand Side - The demand for rare earths is driven by three main sectors: electric vehicles, wind power, and robotics [4]. - Each electric vehicle requires 3.5 kg of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), while each wind turbine needs 600 kg of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets [4]. - By 2028, NdPr oxide prices are expected to remain between 600,000 to 700,000 CNY per ton (approximately 80-95 USD per kg), with heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium showing even stronger price momentum [4]. Overseas Projects - Despite attempts by overseas companies to challenge China's dominance, they face high costs, limited scale, and significant environmental pressures, making it difficult to alter China's position in the short term [5]. - MP Materials, a U.S. strategic project, has questionable commercial viability due to higher refining costs and reliance on government subsidies, with profitability unlikely in the next five years [6]. - Lynas, an Australian project, is more competitive but still faces environmental compliance challenges and relies on China for heavy rare earth supplies [6]. Heavy Rare Earths Dependency - The supply dominance of China in heavy rare earths is expected to continue in the short term due to the immaturity of overseas mining and refining technologies, as well as high costs [7]. Recycling and Alternative Technologies - China currently accounts for 60% of global rare earth recycling, with a recovery rate of 90-95%, primarily from electric vehicle motors, wind turbine blades, and electronic waste [9]. - By 2028, recycled rare earths are projected to meet about 35% of global supply needs, alleviating pressure on primary mining [9]. - In contrast, the U.S. and Europe lag in recycling technology and face high environmental costs, hindering progress in their recycling industries [10]. - Alternative materials currently under research are unlikely to pose a significant threat to rare earth demand within the next decade [11].

Core Insights - The core conclusion of the meeting is that China's dominant position in rare earth reserves and refining processes is unlikely to be challenged in the short term [1] Supply Side - China currently contributes 60-70% of global rare earth production, with a critical role in the refining and separation stage, accounting for approximately 90% of global capacity and being at least 20 years ahead in technology compared to overseas [3] - The cost advantage is significant, with China's refining and separation costs being only one-third of those of foreign counterparts, creating a "technology + cost" dual barrier that makes global rare earth supply highly dependent on China [3] Demand Side - The demand for rare earths is driven by three main sectors: electric vehicles, wind power, and robotics [4] - Each electric vehicle requires 3.5 kg of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), while each wind turbine requires 600 kg of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets [4] - The price forecast for NdPr oxide is expected to remain between 600,000 - 700,000 yuan per ton (approximately 80-95 USD per kg) by 2028, with heavy rare earths like dysprosium priced around 330 USD per kg and terbium at 1,000 USD per kg, indicating strong upward momentum [4] Overseas Projects - Despite attempts by overseas companies to break China's dominance in the rare earth sector, challenges such as high costs, limited scale, and environmental pressures make it difficult to disrupt China's position in the short term [5] - MP Materials, a U.S. strategic project, faces commercial viability concerns, with refining costs at least 40% higher than China's and a current scale of only 1,000 tons, far below the 10,000-ton target [6] - Lynas, an Australian project, is considered competitive without subsidies but still faces environmental compliance pressures and remains reliant on China for heavy rare earth supply [7] - The conclusion emphasizes that the reliance on heavy rare earths from China is unlikely to change in the short term due to the immaturity of overseas mining and refining technologies and high costs [8] Recycling and Alternative Technologies - China is rapidly building a closed-loop recycling system for rare earths, currently accounting for 60% of global rare earth recycling volume, with a recovery rate of 90-95% [10] - By 2028, recycled rare earths are expected to meet about 35% of global supply demand, effectively alleviating pressure on primary mining [10] - In contrast, the U.S. and Europe lag in recycling technology and face high environmental costs, resulting in slower progress in their recycling industries [10] - Concerns regarding alternative materials remain, as they are still in the research and development phase and are unlikely to pose a significant threat to rare earth demand within the next decade [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's dominance in the rare earth industry, highlighting the significant reliance of Western countries, particularly the U.S. and Europe, on Chinese rare earth supplies for high-tech manufacturing and defense systems [1][3][5]. Industry Overview - China accounts for 60% of global rare earth production and 90% of refining and processing [3]. - The U.S. struggles to match China's production capabilities, with its annual output being less than a quarter of China's quarterly production [3]. Supply Chain Implications - A potential supply disruption from China could halt production in global industries outside of China, including automotive, electronics, and aerospace [5]. - The article cites historical examples, such as Japan's automotive industry facing crises due to China's export restrictions in 2010, illustrating the critical nature of rare earth supplies [5]. U.S. Response Strategies - The U.S. has initiated a "dual-line breakthrough" plan, which includes restarting domestic rare earth mining and forming partnerships with allies like Australia, Canada, and India [7][10]. - However, the article argues that these efforts are unrealistic, as establishing a complete rare earth supply chain requires decades of technological development and significant investment [10][12]. Competitive Landscape - China's established and integrated rare earth supply chain spans from mining to processing, providing a competitive edge over U.S. and allied efforts [12][14]. - The article points out that even attempts by companies in Australia and Canada to establish processing facilities have faced significant challenges, including environmental regulations and funding issues [13]. Market Dynamics - China controls 80% of the global production of rare earth permanent magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines, further solidifying its market position [14]. - The article suggests that the technological gap and loss of skilled labor in the U.S. make it difficult for Western countries to catch up with China's advancements in the rare earth sector [15].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's statement regarding imposing tariffs up to 200% on Chinese imports if China does not agree to provide rare earth magnets highlights the U.S.'s dependency and anxiety over China's resource technology [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Dependency - The proposal to raise tariffs to 200% reflects the U.S.'s struggle in the rare earth supply chain, revealing a critical weakness despite its focus on high-tech superiority [3][5]. - Over 80% of rare earth magnet supply is dependent on China, which is crucial for various key projects including smartphones and military communication devices [3][9]. - The U.S. lacks domestic rare earth processing capabilities and faces challenges in sourcing alternatives, making Trump's threats appear more like a gamble than a feasible strategy [5][12]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economy - Previous tariff wars have not benefited the U.S., as additional costs have largely been passed on to American consumers and businesses, affecting industries reliant on Chinese imports [7][14]. - The proposed increase in tariffs could lead to devastating cost increases for U.S. factories and businesses, potentially crippling the domestic manufacturing sector [7][14]. - The U.S. has historically relied on imports for rare earth materials, missing opportunities to develop an independent supply chain [14][16]. Group 3: China's Position in the Rare Earth Market - China has a significant advantage in the rare earth industry due to its established technology and cost control, allowing it to redirect products to other markets if the U.S. market is closed [9][16]. - The strategic layout of China's rare earth industry is supported by technological innovation and domestic demand, making it resilient against external pressures [16]. - China's position in the rare earth sector remains strong, and the potential for the U.S. to impose tariffs may ultimately backfire, reinforcing China's dominance in this critical area [9][16].

然而，深入分析后不难发现，澳大利亚的底气可能是过于乐观的。尽管澳大利亚拥有丰富的稀土资源， 但在加工技术上与中国存在巨大的差距。首先，澳大利亚的稀土产量虽然不少，但与中国相比，仍然相 差悬殊。中国稀土产量占据全球总产量的70%以上，而澳大利亚的占比仅为5%。其次，澳大利亚的稀 土萃取技术远落后于中国。中国采用的串级萃取工艺，不仅提高了分离效率，还能保持更高的纯度，尤 其是在军用标准上的要求。而澳大利亚依然沿用传统的溶剂萃取法，这种方法不仅效率低，而且纯度难 以达到军用要求。 值得注意的是，虽然澳大利亚的技术在改进中，但其设施的规模和自动化控制技术 仍然无法与中国的现代化生产线相媲美。尤其是在稀土萃取塔等关键设施上，澳大利亚和中国差距巨 大。假如澳大利亚的生产设施突然断供，那么美澳联合的供应链也将随之崩溃。 更重要的是时间因 素。在中美关税战的背景下，中国出台了《稀土管理条例》，加强了对稀土出口的管控，使得美国措手 不及。即便现在美国得到了澳大利亚的支持，但短期内仍然很难找到能够替代中国稀土供应的合适渠 道。美国能源部的评估显示，至少需要十年时间和300亿美元的投入，才能在短期内建立一条能够维持 军工生产的供应 ...