Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 1.38%报 1202元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 2.1%报30358 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 29 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.43 吨， 当前持仓量为 1086.53 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 112.76 吨，当前持仓量为 15523.36 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.4%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 8 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.46%报 5411.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.06%报 116.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 3.36%报 1196.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 1.46%报 28885 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 28 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.58 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1089.96 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 211.42 吨，当前持仓量为 15636.12 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.5%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 86.5%。美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 24.1%，维持利 | | ...

来源：滚动播报 加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：美联储独立性受到的威胁加剧了经济不确定性。 ...

On Sunday, the price of gold hit a major milestone: it surpassed the $5,000-per-ounce mark for the first time in history. But while gold’s price rise is a good thing for investors in the precious metal, it may also signal broader investor anxiety about the markets—and the world. Here’s what you need to know about gold’s surge. Most Read from Fast Company Gold trades above $5,000 for the first time ever On Sunday, gold surpassed $5,000 per troy ounce—the first time it has ever done so. The precious yell ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that uncertainty has returned due to new tariff threats from Trump, which is damaging trust between the US and Europe [1][3] - Lagarde emphasized that the trade relationship between the US and Europe is very close, and questioning this relationship is detrimental to good business policy [3][5] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a stable policy with inflation and benchmark borrowing costs at 2%, and no further actions are expected in the near term [2][4] Group 2 - Lagarde noted that the recent rise in uncertainty is more significant than the tariffs themselves, indicating a return to a previously seen scenario [1][3] - French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that any new tariffs would need to be evaluated, but he expects their impact on prices to be limited [2][4] - The eurozone has shown resilience in the face of rising protectionism, but officials continue to highlight that risks remain high [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong upward trend in gold prices driven by escalating global geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran and the U.S. [2] - Gold prices reached a closing price of $4626.41 per ounce, with an increase of nearly 0.9%, and hit a record high of $4642.77 during trading [2] - Economic uncertainty is providing additional support for gold, as U.S. retail sales grew by 0.6%, exceeding expectations, yet inflation data remains weak, sustaining risk-averse sentiment [3] Group 2 - The current gold market shows signs of a short-term peak, with insufficient upward momentum and a double top pattern forming near the $4640 level [4] - The four-hour chart indicates that gold prices are consolidating at high levels, with a potential for significant declines following prolonged sideways movement [4] - The presence of frequent upper shadows in the candlestick patterns suggests a weakening bullish force, with the 50-day moving average indicating a downward trend [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing a shift from a fringe asset to a mainstream investment, with increased volatility and a historical high of 65% institutional ownership in physical gold ETFs [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the U.S., are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Economic uncertainty, highlighted by mixed U.S. economic indicators, is leading to expectations of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, enhancing gold's attractiveness [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are maintaining an upward trend, with key support at the 5-day moving average around 4580; a sustained position above this level could indicate a continued bullish outlook [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a strong upward movement since the 4274 point, but caution is advised due to potential pullback risks; key support levels to watch include 4600, 4580/4570, and 4560 [6] - Resistance levels are identified at 4640/4645 and 4673, with the former being a significant high point from recent trading sessions [6]

Group 1 - The unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy is overshadowing geopolitical turmoil caused by President Donald Trump, leading to increased short positions on the dollar as traders anticipate a decline due to potential Fed rate cuts [1] - Despite concerns over Trump's actions, including threats to Venezuela and other nations, the dollar has strengthened, indicating that forex traders are largely ignoring these geopolitical risks [1] - Recent employment data has not shown the anticipated slowdown, raising questions about the extent of potential Fed rate cuts this year [1] Group 2 - Speculation exists that Trump's actions could jeopardize the dollar's status as the world's primary currency, leading to potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly during market turbulence in April [2] - After experiencing one of the most significant declines since the early 1970s, the dollar stabilized in the latter half of 2025 as Trump rolled back some tariffs and the economy progressed steadily [2] - Wall Street analysts predict a long-term downward trend for the dollar as the Fed gradually lowers interest rates, with a notable increase of approximately $21 billion in speculative short positions on the dollar in January, the largest since March 2020 [2]

Group 1 - Foreign investors significantly increased their purchases of Japanese stocks, reaching the highest level since 2013, with net buying of approximately 5.4 trillion yen (about 35 billion USD) in 2025, which is 35 times the amount bought in 2024 [1][4] - The buying activity of foreign investors was second only to domestic companies, which net bought 10.5 trillion yen of domestic stocks last year [4] - The optimistic sentiment towards the Japanese economy and the Bank of Japan's stable monetary policy normalization were key drivers of the aggressive foreign buying [4] Group 2 - Japan emerged as an attractive alternative for investors amid increasing uncertainty in the U.S. economy due to Trump's tariff policies, especially considering Japanese companies' efforts to improve capital efficiency and shareholder returns [4] - There is a stark contrast between the bullish attitude of foreign investors and the bearish stance of domestic retail investors, who net sold 3.6 trillion yen of Japanese stocks last year [4] - Caution is advised as Japanese stock indices have reached historical highs, potentially leading to more selective choices by foreign investors this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The primary factors influencing the gold market are the movements of the US dollar and monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1]. Group 1: Dollar Influence - Gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar; when the dollar strengthens, gold prices typically decline due to increased holding costs [1]. - Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold prices generally rise as holding costs decrease [2]. - The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, and its fluctuations directly impact gold prices [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Changes - When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, leading investors to seek higher-yielding assets, which can cause gold prices to fall [5]. - In contrast, when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the attractiveness of gold increases, often resulting in higher prices [6]. Group 3: Quantitative Easing and Monetary Policy Expectations - The implementation of quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve, which includes actions like printing money and purchasing bonds, increases market liquidity and inflation expectations, typically driving gold prices up [7]. - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, such as anticipated rate hikes or cuts, can also influence gold prices, with expectations of rate hikes potentially leading to preemptive declines in gold prices [8]. Group 4: Economic Conditions - During periods of strong economic growth, investors may prefer riskier assets like stocks, leading to decreased demand for gold and potential price declines [9]. - Conversely, during economic recessions, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, which can drive prices higher [10]. Group 5: Inflation and Deflation - Rising inflation tends to increase demand for gold as a store of value, resulting in higher prices [11]. - In deflationary periods, demand for gold may decrease, putting downward pressure on prices [12]. Group 6: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Uncertainty - Geopolitical events such as wars, political instability, and terrorist attacks can elevate demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, often leading to price increases [13][14]. - Economic uncertainties, including financial crises and debt crises, can also boost demand for gold [15]. Group 7: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Factors affecting gold supply include mining output, recycling rates, and central bank selling behaviors [16]. - Demand influences come from investment needs (like gold ETFs, bars, and coins), industrial uses (such as electronics and medical applications), and jewelry demand [16]. - Investor sentiment regarding economic outlooks, including concerns about inflation and recession, can impact gold prices [16]. - Speculative trading in futures markets can lead to short-term volatility in gold prices [16]. - Central bank purchasing or selling of gold reserves can significantly affect market supply and demand [16]. - Technical factors, such as support and resistance levels in gold pricing, can also influence short-term trends [16].