随着美国近七年来首次政府关门的不确定性加剧，黄金行情持续攀升，创下新高。 当投资者寻求"避风港"来保护资金时，黄金销售往往会大幅上升。此前一年中，黄金及其他金属如白银 的价格已经出现了较大涨幅，尤其是在特朗普总统一系列关税措施引发全球经济不确定性的背景下。 此外，黄金投资的推动因素还有其他方面。分析人士此前指出，全球各国央行对黄金的需求强劲，尤其 是在地缘政治紧张加剧的情况下，例如加沙和乌克兰的持续战争。 分析人士预测，如果这一趋势持续，黄金价格可能继续攀升。但黄金市场波动性较大，未来走势仍不可 预测。 信息来源：AP News 大家都在看 报道指出，近期经济动荡很大程度上源于特朗普的贸易战。自2025年初以来，总统对来自全球的进口商 品加征了大幅新关税，这给企业和消费者都带来了压力，推动成本上升，同时就业市场疲软。结果是招 聘骤降，而通胀又开始缓慢回升，越来越多的消费者对未来表示悲观。当前的美国政府关门也可能加剧 这些担忧。 截至周二美市收盘，纽约现货黄金价格创纪录地达到每盎司3,858.45美元，在隔夜政府关门前一度走 高。周三，黄金期货继续上涨，一度徘徊在3,900美元关口。 与此同时，华尔街迄今对关门 ...

The U.S. federal government shut down one minute into October, bringing with it uncertainty about jobs and the economy. ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,788.80 per ounce on Monday, up 0.4% from Friday’s close of $3,775.30. The price of the precious metal moved above $3,800 in early trading. Gold rose above $3,700 on September 22, the same day the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs. Stocks have since retreated slightly as Wall Street attempts to predict how interest rates will evolve in the short term. Disagreement among Fed governors and, now, the potential for a government shutdown, confuses the issue ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

周四（9月25日）美元兑瑞郎汇率今日开盘报0.7944，昨日收盘于0.7941，截至发稿前美元/瑞郎报 0.7948，涨幅0.08%，最高价0.7951，最低价0.7941。瑞士8月消费者价格同比上涨0.2%，与7月涨幅持 平，连续第三个月维持在央行0-2%的价格稳定目标区间内。 美元兑瑞郎相对强弱指数（RSI）在45-50区间震荡，未形成明确趋势方向；随机振荡器（Stoch）从低 位回升至52附近，未进入超买区域，暗示短期仍有小幅反弹空间，但动能有限。上轨位于0.7935，下轨 位于0.7905，中轨位于0.7920，通道呈水平走平状态，价格在中轨附近波动，"夹板效应"显著，突破上 下轨将成为短期趋势启动的信号。 国内产品价格上涨被进口商品价格下降所抵消。数据公布后，市场预计央行本月维持零利率不变的概率 从85%升至91%。央行6月将利率降至零以应对通缩压力，最新数据缓解了其再次降息的压力。VP银行 首席经济学家表示，通胀数据给央行采取行动的理由，通胀高于零且通缩趋势未进一步加剧。EFG银行 分析师指出，当前经济不确定性（特别是美国对瑞士进口征收39%关税）使央行倾向于保留政策选项。 早期指标仍显示瑞士经济 ...

在美国特朗普政府的关税政策带来的经济不确定性和通胀担忧中，黄金价格创下了自1979年 中东"石油危机"以来的最大涨幅。 短期因素方面，美联储的降息信号吸引了短期投资者进入黄金市场，进一步推动了涨势。目前，市场普 遍预期美联储将在16日至17日举行的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上降息。实际利率降低会削弱 持有现金或债券等生息资产的吸引力，投资者更倾向于配置黄金以对冲通胀或经济不确定性，从而推高 其价格。 盛宝银行的大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森表示，截至9月初，对冲基金将其大宗商品净持仓的47%配置在 黄金上。 有分析称，此次上涨的背后"白宫因素"影响巨大，无论是小额还是大额投资者，都在涌向黄金，以保护 自己免受美国经济前景不确定性以及美国在全球经济中角色不确定性的影响。美国分析师将此称为"混 乱交易"，并且"才刚刚开始升温"。 分析称，特朗普政府的关税政策持续推行，推高了通胀，也搅乱了经济预测。特朗普政府声称能够立即 解决俄乌冲突或加沙冲突，但并未取得任何进展，也是周期性地加剧市场不确定性的因素。美元经历了 五十多年来最疲软的上半年。同时，白宫对美联储施加的压力正在威胁这个金融体系"压舱石"之一的独 立性。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that the new tariff policies in the U.S. are becoming a significant economic burden for ordinary American families, with estimated annual costs ranging from $1,600 to $3,800, and projections for 2025 hovering around $2,300 to $2,400 [1][2] - The impact of tariffs is profound, affecting various aspects of daily life, including prices of groceries, gasoline, new cars, and electronics, as companies increasingly pass on rising costs to consumers [1][2] - Economic uncertainty has intensified due to tariffs, with economists warning of rising consumer prices and disruptions in global supply chains [1][2] Group 2 - The future trajectory of U.S. tariff policies remains highly uncertain, but protectionist measures are expected to continue, impacting the global economy [2] - In the short term, consumers and businesses should prepare for ongoing increases in costs and prices, with recent data showing a 4% rise in import prices and a 2% rise in domestic prices since early 2025 [2] - Long-term projections indicate a negative impact on the U.S. economy, with potential GDP declines of 6% and wage reductions of 5%, leading to a significant lifetime income loss of $22,000 for a middle-income family [2]

Labor Market Overview - The U.S. economy added 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the 75,000 estimate by economists [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, up from 4.2% in July, aligning with expectations [1] Job Revisions - Job gains for June were revised down by 27,000, changing from a gain of 14,000 to a loss of 13,000; July's job creation was revised up by 6,000 from 73,000 to 79,000 [2] - Overall, employment in June and July was 21,000 jobs lower than previously reported [2] Sector Performance - Private payrolls added 38,000 jobs in August, falling short of the projected 75,000 [3] - Government payrolls declined by 16,000 jobs, with federal government employment down by 15,000 and state governments shedding 13,000 jobs [4] - The manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs, exceeding the estimated decline of 5,000 jobs [5] - Healthcare employment added 31,000 jobs, below the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the past year [5] - Social assistance employment increased by 16,000 jobs, reflecting growth in individual and family services [6] Labor Force Metrics - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.3%, while the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.6% [6] - Both metrics have declined by 0.4 percentage points over the year [6]

Group 1 - The recruitment plans of U.S. companies fell to a historical low in August, with only 1,494 new jobs announced, marking the lowest level for August since records began in 2009 [1][2] - Layoff announcements surged to nearly 85,980, the highest for August since 2020, indicating significant pressure on the labor market [1][2] - The data suggests a cooling trend in the labor market, with expectations that the upcoming government employment report will confirm the slowdown in hiring activity [1][2] Group 2 - Recruitment plans are primarily concentrated in the aerospace, defense, industrial goods, and retail sectors, indicating that most industries are delaying or reducing hiring [2] - The layoff figures, when excluding pandemic effects, represent the highest for any August since the 2008 recession, highlighting the severity of current labor market pressures [2] - The report supports the assessment that the labor market is slowing down, with a notable decline in recruitment activities observed in recent months [2]

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates that most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported little change in economic activity, with only four districts noting moderate growth [1] - Consumer spending remained flat or declined across most districts, with many households' incomes not keeping pace with rising prices [1] - Nearly all districts reported price increases related to tariffs, with significant impacts on input costs [1] Employment Trends - Overall employment levels showed little change across 11 Federal Reserve districts, with one district experiencing a slight decline [2] - Seven districts reported that businesses were reluctant to hire due to weak demand and economic uncertainty, while two districts noted an increase in layoffs [2] - The reduction in immigrant labor, particularly affecting the construction industry, was highlighted as a significant factor impacting employment [2] Inflation and Price Expectations - Most regions described current price increases as "moderate to modest," but many businesses expect prices to continue rising in the coming months, with three districts anticipating further increases [1] - The report emphasized that businesses are cautious about raising prices due to concerns over potential loss of customers [1] Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be influenced by the economic conditions outlined in the "Beige Book" [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is projected at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [4]