Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Department of Commerce reported a contraction in the economy, with a 0.5% annualized decline in the first quarter [1]

Group 1 - The UK economy faced its most severe monthly decline in 18 months, with April GDP shrinking by 0.3%, significantly worse than the expected contraction of 0.1% [2][3] - The decline marks the end of a brief recovery earlier in the year, where Q1 GDP had grown by 0.7%, outperforming both the Eurozone and the US [3] - The drop in exports to the US, attributed to tariff policies, has severely impacted overall economic performance, revealing the UK's reliance on foreign trade [4] Group 2 - The global trade environment has worsened, leading to increased caution among local businesses, particularly affecting investment decisions [5] - Structural issues, including long-term low investment and stagnant productivity, have weakened the UK's economic growth foundation, exacerbated by Brexit and the pandemic [7] - Recent tax reforms and increased operational costs due to higher employer taxes and minimum wage hikes are adding further burdens on businesses [7] Group 3 - The labor market, previously resilient, is now facing pressures that could lead to a surge in unemployment, with companies experiencing hiring freezes and layoffs [8]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 782.42 | -0.09% | 785.50 | 0.45% | | | 黄金T+D | 779.68 | 0.20% | 782.45 | 0.39% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3397.40 | 0.61% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3374.00 | 0.43% | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8463 | 0.09% | 8474.00 | 0.00% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 8441 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The service sector activity in the U.S. fell into contraction for the first time in nearly a year due to a sharp decline in demand and the impact of tariff increases on the economy, leading to accelerated price rises [1] Group 1: Service Sector Performance - The ISM service index dropped by 1.7 points to 49.9 in May, indicating a contraction as it fell below the neutral level of 50, which was below market expectations [1] - The most significant decline was observed in new orders, while the prices paid index reached its highest level since the end of 2022, highlighting the pronounced effects of increased import tariffs on demand and inflation [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the ISM data, U.S. Treasury yields decreased, and the gains in the S&P 500 index narrowed [1] Group 3: Business Sentiment - Steve Miller, chairman of the ISM survey committee, noted that the overall index does not indicate severe contraction but reflects the uncertainty experienced by surveyed businesses [1] - Respondents reported challenges in forecasting and planning due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, leading to delays or reductions in orders until more clarity is achieved [1]

Group 1 - BlackRock anticipates a supply-driven economic contraction in the U.S. but sees opportunities created by AI, increased fiscal spending, and higher interest rates, leading to a positive outlook on developed market equities despite potential volatility [1] - European financial stocks have risen by 20% due to the high interest rate environment, while Spain's stock market is favored due to its low exposure to U.S. tariffs, with only 5% of exports directed to the U.S. [1][6] - Gold is outperforming U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, potentially benefiting from increased demand due to new banking regulations [1][6] Group 2 - BlackRock has revised down the S&P 500 earnings growth forecast from 14% in January to 8.5%, indicating a larger-than-average decline as economic activity slows [4] - The firm believes that the economic activity may rebound quickly if U.S.-China tariffs are reduced, creating specific opportunities across various sectors and regions [4] - AI is expected to continue driving earnings growth, with the "Big Seven" tech companies seeing a 30% increase in earnings compared to 8% for other market companies [4] Group 3 - Three key themes emerged from BlackRock's Q1 earnings reports: companies are shifting production to the U.S. or allied countries, many are accepting higher input costs due to supply chain adjustments, and 60% of companies updating spending plans are guiding below consensus forecasts [5] - Despite the challenges, large tech companies are confirming or increasing investments related to AI, indicating a strong starting position for U.S. firms [5] Group 4 - BlackRock upgraded its rating on European stocks to neutral due to infrastructure and defense spending plans, although execution remains critical [6] - The European Stoxx 600 index has performed similarly to the S&P 500 since the tariff announcement, with 2025 earnings expectations dropping from 8% to 3.5% [6] - Financial stocks in Europe have risen over 20% this year, supported by strong balance sheets amid high yields [6] Group 5 - BlackRock favors infrastructure stocks due to attractive relative valuations and significant forces at play, predicting that private credit will gain market share as banks withdraw [10] - The firm prefers developed market government bonds over investment-grade credit, particularly U.S. short to medium-term bonds and UK gilt bonds [10] - Emerging markets, especially India and Saudi Arabia, are seen as providing opportunities, while Japan is favored due to returning inflation and corporate reforms [10] Group 6 - Five major forces are reshaping current and future investments: demographic differences, digital disruption and AI, geopolitical divisions, evolving financial frameworks, and the transition to a low-carbon economy [11]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in a year, with a preliminary annualized GDP decline of 0.7% in the first quarter, highlighting its vulnerability even before the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration [1] Economic Performance - The decline in exports and a surge in imports have negatively impacted net trade, contributing to the economic contraction in the first three months of the year [1] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about half of the economy, remained flat, and inflation has weakened purchasing power, keeping consumption below pre-pandemic levels [1] Political Implications - The economic shrinkage may spark ongoing political debates regarding the need for tax cuts or cash subsidies before the upcoming summer Senate elections [1]

Economic Data Summary - The US GDP growth rate for Q1 has significantly dropped from 2.4% to -0.3%, indicating an acceleration in economic decline and a contraction in the economy [2] - The ADP employment figures for April have also seen a substantial decrease from 147,000 to 62,000, suggesting a deterioration in the US job market [2] - The core PCE price index year-on-year has fallen from 3% to 2.6%, and the month-on-month figure has decreased from 0.5% to 0%, reflecting a continuing downward trend in inflation [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The latest economic data supports the notion that the Federal Reserve may consider resuming interest rate cuts in the upcoming May meeting [2] - However, there is uncertainty regarding the Fed's willingness to act quickly on rate cuts, as Chairman Powell has previously conveyed a cautious stance towards such measures [2] - If the Fed can implement timely rate cuts, it may help mitigate severe economic contraction, but there is concern that hesitation could lead to a more pronounced downturn [2][3]