Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: Due to the resurgence of European - American trade disputes, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai gold premium continued to expand to 0.1 yuan/gram. With the high dovish expectations of the shadow Fed, the gold price is supported. Considering the global situation after Trump's inauguration and the shift from inflation to recession expectations, the gold price is still likely to rise and hard to fall [4]. - **Silver**: After Trump announced to "fire" the current Fed governor, but the Fed stated that Trump's power to remove the governor was limited, the silver price fluctuated and declined. The Shanghai silver premium expanded to about 440 yuan/kg. The silver price still mainly follows the gold price and is affected by tariff concerns [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose slightly, European three major stock indexes fell across the board. Most US bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 0.78 basis points to 4.261%. The US dollar index fell 0.20% to 98.24, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1534. COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.4, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 43, neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 13692 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Attention - Time TBD, from August 27th - 29th, the 2025 AGIC Shenzhen (International) General Artificial Intelligence Conference and General Artificial Intelligence Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center. - At 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in July and Australia's CPI in July will be released. - At 12:01, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a 2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economy again [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump's inauguration, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and reality will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: It follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 625,171, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day; the short position volume was 472,276, an increase of 0.25%; the net position was 152,895, an increase of 1.14% [30]. - **Silver**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 1,082,920, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous day; the short position volume was 993,680, a decrease of 2.78%; the net position was 89,240, a decrease of 8.77% [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, causing gold prices to fluctuate. The Shanghai - gold premium continued to widen to 1.47 yuan/gram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting, as the interest - rate cut expectation is volatile, leading to gold price fluctuations [4]. - **Silver**: The release of details of the US - EU trade agreement led to a rebound in silver prices after a decline. PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, but the impact on silver prices was limited. The Shanghai - silver premium remained at around 400 yuan/kg. As the market awaited the central bank annual meeting and risk appetite recovered, silver prices fluctuated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%), the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 60 kg to 36642 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29 (spot at a discount to futures), Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 25144 kg to 1115055 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's July CPI; 14:00 Germany's Q2 GDP final value; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (until August 23); 20:30 Canada's June retail sales; 21:00 Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins on Bloomberg TV; 22:00 Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting; 23:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack on CNBC; Saturday: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung's visit to Japan and the ROK - Japan summit; Sunday 00:25 ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey at a panel discussion [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logical drivers include the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the shift from inflation to recession expectations, and the continued verification of the new US government's policies, making gold prices still likely to rise [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.43% to 609,750, the short - position volume decreased by 2.35% to 457,223, and the net position increased by 1.45% to 152,527 [31]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.50% to 1,052,297, the short - position volume decreased by 1.44% to 959,065, and the net position decreased by 2.15% to 93,232 [33]. - **ETF**: Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and silver ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were higher than last year, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [40][41][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: US retail sales continued to grow significantly, and the US consumer confidence in August unexpectedly declined while long - and short - term inflation expectations climbed. With the smooth meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, the gold price showed a slight oscillation. The premium of Shanghai gold remained at 0.2 yuan/gram. The gold price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [4]. - Silver: As US retail sales continued to grow significantly and the meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine was successful, the silver price oscillated following the gold price. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 395 yuan/kg. The silver price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US retail sales continued to grow significantly, the three major US stock indices closed with mixed results, the three major European stock indices also closed with mixed results, the US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.11 basis points to 4.318%), the US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1891, and the COMEX gold futures fell 0.04% to $3381.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the same macro - factors, the COMEX silver futures fell 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.39 (spot was at a discount to futures, neutral); the inventory of gold futures increased by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (bearish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis, inventory, and other factors were also analyzed, but the specific content was not as detailed as that of gold. The silver price followed the gold price to oscillate [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The US is to announce the expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, and the expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18; at 12:30, Japan's June tertiary industry activity index will be released; at 17:00, the eurozone's June unadjusted trade balance will be announced; at 22:00, the US August NAHB housing market index will be released; Trump will meet with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders in the Oval Office of the White House on the afternoon of the 18th [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation was affected by factors such as US retail sales, consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. The overall situation was neutral, and the price was expected to oscillate [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price oscillated following the gold price due to the significant growth of US retail sales and other factors [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 170 to 632,979 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 0.03%; the short - position volume decreased by 275 to 481,939, a decrease of 0.06%; the net position increased by 105 to 151,040, an increase of 0.07% [29]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 43,293 to 1,089,608 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 3.82%; the short - position volume decreased by 33,259 to 998,505, a decrease of 3.22%; the net position decreased by 10,034 to 91,103, a decrease of 9.92% [32].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [1] - Report author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Author's qualification: F3051846 (从业资格证号), Z0015764 (投资咨询证号) [1] - Contact information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For gold, due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement on potential sanctions against Russia and high expectations of a 50BP interest rate cut in September, the gold price first rose and then fell, and rose again in the morning. The high expectation of interest rate cuts supports the gold price [4]. - For silver, with the same statement from the US Treasury Secretary and a significant increase in domestic risk appetite, the silver price strengthened during the day. The recovery of commodity sentiment still supports the silver price [6]. Group 4: Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US Treasury Secretary's statement led to a rise - then - fall in the gold price. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell (10 - year US bond yield down 6 basis points to 4.231%), the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 97.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $3407.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The silver price rose during the day due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement and increased domestic risk appetite. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index fell, and the offshore RMB appreciated. COMEX silver futures rose 1.44% to $38.55 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include the State Council Information Office press conference, US July PPI, intensive speeches by Fed members, and UK Q2 GDP [4]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Australian employment population and unemployment rate for July [15] - 10:00: State Council Information Office press conference on the achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" digital China construction [15] - 14:00: UK Q2 GDP preliminary value [15] - 20:30: US July PPI, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 [15] - 22:00: US St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a CNBC program [15] - Next day 02:00: US Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) participates in an online seminar [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.2 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of gold futures warrants is 36045 kg (unchanged), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [4][5]. - Silver: The basis is - 26 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1151209 kg (decreased by 753 kg day - on - day), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: On August 13, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.24% to 214,449, the short position increased by 3.78% to 60,932, and the net position decreased by 1.09% to 153,517 [29]. - Silver: ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years, and Shanghai silver warrants continued to decrease but were higher than last year's level, while COMEX silver warrants increased slightly [36][40].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, causing the gold price to decline significantly. The release of the US CPI today may lead the market to bet on stagflation. If the CPI rises, the gold price will still have support. With the new dovish expectations of the Fed, the gold price may rebound. [4] - Silver: The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the decline is not significantly enlarged. The commodity sentiment recovers, and the silver price is still supported. The release of the US CPI today may further push up the silver price. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX gold futures fell 2.80% to $3393.7 per ounce. [4] - **Silver**: Silver price followed the gold price to fall. US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce. [6] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The gold futures price is 779.48, the spot price is 776.19, and the basis is - 3.29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts are 36045 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [4][5] - **Silver**: The silver futures price is 9210, the spot price is 9187, and the basis is - 23, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1151962 kg, with a daily decrease of 6425 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6] 3.3. Today's Focus - 12:30: Australian policy rate, and the RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. - 14:00: UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate for June. - Time TBD: China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for August, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August. - 20:30: US CPI for July. - 22:00: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (FOMC voter in 2027) speaks. - 22:30: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (FOMC voter in 2025) speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook. - 02:00: US government budget for July. [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, the gold price drops significantly. The market starts to bet on stagflation, and if the CPI rises, the gold price will have support. The Shanghai gold premium expands to - 1.3 yuan per gram. [4] - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the Shanghai silver premium remains at about 400 yuan per kg. [6] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [5] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor and a poor auction of 30 - year US Treasury bonds, gold prices have rebounded. New dovish expectations from the Fed support gold prices, and they are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 0.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: Also influenced by the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor, silver prices have continued to rise. Despite a poor 30 - year US Treasury bond auction, the recovery of domestic commodity sentiment has led to a resurgence in silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 415 yuan/kilogram, and silver prices are expected to be strong [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The dovish Milan's expected appointment as a Fed governor led to a recovery in gold prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year yield up 2.62 basis points to 4.252%. The US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.09, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.44% to $3482.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the expected appointment of the dovish Milan led to a rise in silver prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed, US Treasury yields rose, and the US dollar index fell. COMEX silver futures rose 1.66% to $38.53 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include China's July CPI and PPI, and speeches by Fed members [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Scheduled events: Japan's June trade balance at 07:50; the 2025 World Robot Expo (time TBD); the online interpretation of the Bank of England's latest forecasts and policy decisions by Chief Economist Huw Pill at 19:15; Canada's July employment report (including employment figures and unemployment rate) at 20:30; a speech by St. Louis Fed President (2025 FOMC voter) Mousalem at 22:20; China's July CPI and PPI at 09:30 on Saturday; and the possible release of China's July M2 and other money supply data, January - July social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans on Saturday [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.72, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts stand at 36,045 kilograms, remaining unchanged [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 47, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11,506 kilograms to 1,150,338 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold increased by 3,267 (1.47%), short positions decreased by 42 (- 0.07%), and the net position increased by 3,309 (2.06%) [4][28]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 3,512 (1.02%), short positions decreased by 3,270 (- 1.20%), and the net position increased by 6,782 (9.60%) [5][32]. 4. Other Information - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, while silver ETF positions decreased slightly but remained higher than the levels of the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decline but were higher than last year's level, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [38][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas equity markets generally declined this week due to tariff concerns and economic data. Economic data showed potential slowdown risks, and the "disappointing" non - farm data on Friday intensified market concerns about economic momentum. Tariff policies also made investors cautious. The three major US stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. [1][10] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts fluctuated greatly this week. After the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 40% due to Powell's slightly hawkish stance, but soared above 80% after the "disappointing" non - farm data and the resignation of the hawkish Fed member Kugler. [2] - The US second - quarter GDP initial value showed an overall growth rate exceeding expectations, but the potential momentum weakened. Consumption was stable, while investment slowed down. [44] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: Overseas equities generally closed down. This was mainly affected by tariffs and economic data. The three major US stock indexes (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) fell by 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively. Other major overseas indexes also declined to varying degrees. [10] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar first rose and then fell, with a slight weekly gain. The US dollar index rose by 1.04%. The euro and the RMB against the US dollar fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively, while the yen against the US dollar rose by 0.19%. [10] - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields declined significantly. The 2Y US Treasury yield dropped 22bp, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped 17bp. [11] - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil rose, while New York copper prices tumbled. COMEX gold rose 0.93%, COMEX copper dropped 23.88%, and WTI crude oil rose 3.37%. [11] 3.2 Overseas Policies and Important News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The FOMC meeting this week maintained the interest rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. It was the fifth consecutive time of keeping the rate unchanged since the December rate cut last year. The meeting statement was slightly dovish, while Fed Chairman Powell's stance was moderately hawkish. [26] - The market's expectation of the Fed's September rate cut first dropped and then soared. After the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 40%, but after the "disappointing" non - farm data and Kugler's resignation, it rose above 80%. As of August 1, the market expected a 25bp rate cut in September with a probability of 80.3%, and three consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, October, and December. [2][27] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting this week also maintained the interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, but it raised the inflation forecast, causing the yen to rise against the US dollar. [27] 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade Negotiations**: Sino - US economic and trade talks continued to postpone the 24% part of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. Trump signed an executive order to set the "new reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and a 40% transit tax on transit goods. He also adjusted tariff policies for Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. [3][31] - **Personnel Changes**: Trump demanded the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and the Fed member Kugler announced her resignation on August 8. These two personnel changes on Friday increased traders' bets on a September rate cut by the Fed. [3][31] - Trump's net satisfaction rate increased. As of August 1, his net satisfaction rate was - 5.1%, compared with - 7.0% a week ago. [32] 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Prosperity - The bet on a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website dropped to 16% from 17% a week ago. The US weekly economic activity index rose slightly, while Germany's continued to decline. [4][37] - The US second - quarter GDP initial value showed an overall growth rate exceeding expectations, but the potential momentum weakened. After excluding the impact of net exports and inventory, the growth rate was lower than the previous value. [44] 3.3.2 Employment - The number of unemployment benefit recipients continued to decline, but the non - farm data was "disappointing". The number of initial jobless claims continued to be lower than expected, but the non - farm data on Friday was far below expectations, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations. [4][52] 3.3.3 Demand - US airport security checks and railway transportation were better than the same period last year. The Redbook commercial retail sales growth rate declined for three consecutive weeks. The real estate market remained sluggish. [54] 3.3.4 Production - The US production side remained prosperous, with crude steel production and refinery utilization rates continuing to be higher than the same period last year. [60] 3.3.5 Shipping - International freight rates declined. The Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Cape - size Freight Index all dropped, and the container freight rates from Chinese ports also continued to fall. [63][64] 3.3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices were stable. The inflation expectations in the US declined this week, with the 1 - year inflation swap rate dropping by 0.04 percentage points and the 2 - year inflation swap rate dropping by 0.06 percentage points. [65][68] 3.3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial pressure declined this week, with the OFR US financial stress index dropping and the credit spread narrowing. [70] 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Key events next week include the Bank of England's interest rate meeting (the market expects a 25bp rate cut), the US July ISM services PMI, and the US June factory orders monthly rate. Attention should also be paid to the implementation of Trump's "new reciprocal tariffs" on August 7. [74]

Core Insights - The implementation of new tariffs on imports to the U.S. has raised significant concerns about the health of the American economy, coinciding with the release of troubling employment data [1][3] - The unexpected delay in the tariff policy's implementation has led to speculation regarding the political motivations behind it [3] - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic decline, losing over $1.11 trillion in market value due to revised employment data that indicated economic weakness [5] Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau reported a non-farm payroll increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 100,000 [5] - The revisions for previous months were stark, with June's job additions revised down from 147,000 to just 14,000, and May's data adjusted down to 19,000, indicating a troubling trend of weak job growth [5] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has dropped to 35,000, marking the worst performance since 2021 [5] Political Implications - Following the release of the employment report, former President Trump dismissed the head of the Labor Statistics Bureau, suggesting political manipulation of the data to favor the Biden administration [7] - Trump's comments reflect a contradiction, as he criticized the data's accuracy while also implying that previous positive employment figures may have been inflated [7] - The market's confidence is now under scrutiny, particularly regarding the ability of the newly appointed Labor Statistics Bureau head to operate independently amid political pressures [7] Economic Outlook - The current economic situation is more precarious than portrayed, with rising inflation rates reported for the second consecutive month [9] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the burden of tariffs imposed by Trump will eventually be passed on to American consumers, highlighting the limitations of tariffs as an economic tool [9] - The effectiveness of maintaining tariff policies while managing interest rates poses a complex challenge for the economy [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting from August 8, which is seen as a negative signal for the government bond market [1] - The tax applies only to new government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds issued after August 8, leaving previously issued bonds unaffected, which is relatively favorable for older bonds [1] - The intention behind this tax is likely to gradually reduce the yield on risk-free assets and guide funds towards the equity market, which could be seen as a positive for the stock market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market experienced its largest decline recently, with the Nasdaq index dropping by 2%, the S&P 500 down by 1.6%, and the Dow Jones also falling over 1% [3] - The decline was primarily driven by the U.S. Labor Department's report showing that July's non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [3] - Despite the weak labor market data, there is skepticism about an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as historical practices suggest a wait-and-see approach for 2 to 3 months before making decisions [3] Group 3 - The decline in U.S. stocks negatively impacted the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index, which is expected to affect the Hong Kong stock market in the upcoming week [4] - However, it is anticipated that the A-share market may experience a low opening followed by a stabilization, as the market often rebounds after an initial drop [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices declined as Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, causing the expectation of a September rate cut to cool off. Despite a brief recovery due to the Fed's statement about slower economic growth, gold prices continued to fall. There is still downward pressure on gold prices due to factors such as the Trump tariff deadline, the weakening rate - cut expectation, and the significant decline of international copper [4]. - Silver prices dropped significantly as the Trump administration excluded the most imported refined copper from tariffs, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. There is also downward pressure on silver prices, but the impact of the Trump tariff event is limited [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, European major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 1.06% to 99.97, the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar to 7.2123, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.36, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 2199 kilograms to 33462 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt increased by 3228 kilograms to 1208094 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's participation in a fireside chat at 07:20, Japan's June industrial output preliminary value and retail sales at 07:50, the meeting between the US and South Korean finance ministers (time to be determined), China's July official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI at 09:30, the Bank of Japan's announcement of the interest rate decision and economic outlook report (time to be determined), the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy at 14:30, France's July CPI preliminary value at 14:45, Germany's July CPI preliminary value at 20:00, the US July 26 - week initial jobless claims at 20:30, and the US Federal Circuit Court's hearing of President Trump's "reciprocal tariff" case (time to be determined) [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The Fed's statement mentioned slower economic growth, and although gold prices briefly recovered, Powell's press conference did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut and emphasized inflation risks. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3.7 yuan/gram, and the RMB depreciated significantly, causing the premium to rise rapidly [4]. - **Silver**: The Trump administration's decision to exclude the most imported refined copper from tariffs led to a significant drop in silver prices, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [5]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5].