交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美日达成协议，美欧接近达成15%关税协议，金价冲高回落；美国三大 股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收 益率涨3.58个基点报4.380%；美元指数跌0.15%报97.20，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1520；COMEX黄金期货跌1.34%报3397.50美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注欧央行利率决议和行长讲话、日欧美7月PMI、美欧盟委员会主席 冯德莱恩访华。美日达成协议，美欧接近达成15%关税协议，国内商品情绪降温，金 价冲高回落。沪金溢价扩大至1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Powell's fake resignation letter caused a stir, the US-Japan agreement may be reached, and gold prices continued to rise. The risk - preference increased, but the gold price still went up due to high Fed rate - cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to - 2.3 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - Silver: With the domestic commodity boom, Shanghai silver continued to hit a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to about 380 yuan/kg, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stock indices closed mixed, European stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields declined across the board (10 - year US bond yield fell 3.17 basis points to 4.344%), the US dollar index dropped 0.49% to 97.36, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US and European stock indices closed mixed, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.29 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 28,857 kg (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 36 (spot at a discount to futures, neutral); the warehouse receipts of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 5,420 kg to 1,199,046 kg (neutral); the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi - 10:00: Press conference on Hainan Free Trade Port construction - Time TBD: Precision Manufacturing Forum for Humanoid Robots from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: 2025 OpenAtom Open - Source Ecosystem Conference - Time TBD: 24th China Internet Conference from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: First Shanghai International Low - Altitude Economy Expo from July 23 - 26 - Time TBD: Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru hosts EU - Japan annual summit - 22:00: US existing home sales in June, preliminary reading of Eurozone consumer confidence index in July - Time TBD: US President Trump's speech on "Winning the AI Race" [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation was neutral. The Fed rate - cut expectations were high, and the commodity upsurge supported the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold converged, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - **Silver**: The domestic commodity boom led to Shanghai silver hitting a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.46% to 210,949, the short position decreased by 1.35% to 61,692, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 149,257 [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.25% to 466,291, the short position increased by 1.38% to 372,943, and the net position decreased by 6.26% to 93,348 [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fed candidates have mentioned a potential rate cut in July, leading to a slight increase in gold and silver prices. The expectation of a Fed rate cut remains high, providing support for precious metal prices. The upcoming stable - growth work plans for key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have also contributed to the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, which in turn has affected gold and silver prices [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Silver prices generally follow gold prices, but are more affected by tariff concerns [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The Fed candidates' mention of a July rate cut led to a 0.30% increase in COMEX gold futures to $3355.50 per ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield fell 3.98 basis points to 4.4095%, and the dollar index dropped 0.18% to 98.46. The gold futures price was 777.02, the spot price was 772.6, with a basis of - 4.42 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 15 kilograms to 28857 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [4]. - **Silver**: The Fed candidates' mention of a July rate cut led to a 0.32% increase in COMEX silver futures to $38.43 per ounce. The silver futures price was 9273, the spot price was 9225, with a basis of - 48 (spot at a discount to futures). The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 6009 kilograms to 1211076 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut remains high, and the upcoming stable - growth work plans for key industries will support gold prices. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 0.9 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The silver price followed the increase in non - ferrous metal prices. The Shanghai silver premium remained at around 350 yuan per kilogram. The high expectation of a rate cut provided support for silver prices [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themed news. At 22:00, the U.S. June Conference Board Leading Index will be released [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are mixed. The expectation of a Fed rate cut and the upcoming industry stable - growth plans are positive factors, while the spot discount to futures and the decrease in warehouse receipts are negative factors [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also mixed. The expectation of a rate cut and the increase in non - ferrous metal prices are positive, while the spot discount to futures is negative [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.91% to 200,675, the short positions increased by 0.90% to 60,609, and the net position increased by 0.92% to 140,066 [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 4.26% to 488,153, the short positions increased by 6.58% to 378,056, and the net position decreased by 2.99% to 110,097 [5][30].

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals morning report released on July 16, 2025, by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department, focusing on gold and silver [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the mild CPI data boosting US stocks and bonds, the gold price declined. Even with the ongoing tariff issue, its impact on the gold price is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 2.4 yuan/gram. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to today's PPI data [4]. - For silver, the mild CPI data also led to a decline in the silver price, and the impact of tariffs has cooled down. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to around 280 yuan/kg. The silver price still has support, and attention should be paid to today's PPI data [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The mild CPI data boosted US stocks and bonds, causing the gold price to fall. US stocks closed mixed, European stocks closed down, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 4.80 basis points to 4.481%), the US dollar index rose 0.53% to 98.63, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $3330.50/ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the mild CPI data led to a decline in the silver price. COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99/ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 15 kg to 28,872 kg, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above it, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is -31, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt decreased by 1023 kg to 1,222,959 kg, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it, which is bullish. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:45: Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 FOMC voter) to speak on the US economy. - Time TBD: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to hold a press conference in Beijing; the 5th RISC - V China Summit from July 16 - 19 in Shanghai; the 2025 International Conference on Neuroscience and Brain - Computer Interface on July 16 in Baoding. - 14:00: UK June CPI. - 20:00: Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) to speak. - 20:30: US June PPI. - 21:15: US June industrial production; Cleveland Fed President Harlan (2026 FOMC voter) to speak. - 22:00: Fed Governor Barr to speak on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution. - Next day 02:00: Fed to release the Beige Book. - Next day 03:30: Atlanta Fed President Bostic to participate in a Fox Business News program. - Next day 06:30: New York Fed President Williams (permanent FOMC voter) to speak on the US economy and monetary policy [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is -4.6, and the futures warehouse receipt is 28,872 kg, an increase of 15 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is -31, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 1,222,959 kg, a decrease of 1023 kg [5]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long position on July 15 was 198,038, an increase of 4,163 (2.15%) from July 14. The short position was 61,020, a decrease of 1,158 (-1.86%) from July 14. The net position was 137,018, an increase of 5,321 (4.04%) from July 14 [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased. The long position on July 15 was 481,474, a decrease of 6,368 (-1.31%) from July 14. The short position was 361,612, a decrease of 4,498 (-1.23%) from July 14. The net position was 119,862, a decrease of 1,870 (-1.54%) from July 14 [5][32]. Other Data - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly but was higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase significantly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts started to decrease but were higher than last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated slightly after a brief rise due to Trump's sanctions on Russia not including new measures to restrict energy exports. The market is waiting for the US CPI data today, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 1.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. Although the overall trend remains strong, the ratio of silver to gold continues to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to around 280 yuan/kg. There is still support for silver prices [5]. - Since Trump took office, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, European three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, US bond yields rose across the board, the 10-year US bond yield increased by 2.40 basis points to 4.433%, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.11, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1722, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 4272 kilograms to 28857 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is neutral; the main net long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is -31, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 79611 kilograms to 1223982 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish; the main net long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Things to Watch Today - 09:30: China's National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. - 10:00: China's Q2 GDP, January - June total retail sales of consumer goods, value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed - asset investment, national real - estate development investment, June urban survey unemployment rate. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2025. - Time TBD: Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) will speak. - 14:45: Boston Fed President Collins (2025 FOMC voter) will speak. - 15:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference for private entrepreneurs. - Time TBD: The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index. - Time TBD: OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report. - 20:30: US June CPI, July New York Fed manufacturing index; Canada's June CPI. - 21:15: Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted meeting. - Time TBD: US President Trump will attend the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit. - Time TBD: Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will speak at the Mansion House Dinner [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, so gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position increased, and the long positions of the main players increased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net long position decreased, and the long positions of the main players decreased [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil led to a recovery in gold prices and a significant increase in silver prices, with Shanghai silver hitting a new record high. The tariff concerns resurfaced, but the gold price fluctuations were limited. The increase in silver price was driven by gold price recovery and recent capital inflows, and the upward trend of silver price remained unchanged [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The gold price sentiment was high and it was still prone to rise rather than fall. The silver price mainly followed the gold price, and the tariff concerns had a stronger impact on the silver price, which was prone to an enlarged increase [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the European three major stock indexes fell across the board. The US bond yields rose across the board, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 6.15 basis points to 4.409%. The US dollar index rose 0.10% to 97.59, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1783. COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to $3370.30 per ounce. The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index performance. COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to $39.08 per ounce. The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The market speculated that Trump planned to sanction Russian crude oil, and the tariff concerns resurfaced, causing the gold price to recover. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to 1.18 yuan/gram. Trump's change in attitude towards Russia drove up the gold price due to the hedging demand, but the reaction was limited [4]. - **Silver**: The market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil, combined with recent capital inflows, led to a significant increase in the silver price. Shanghai silver continued to hit a new record high, and the ratio of silver to gold continued to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 330 yuan/kilogram. The tariff fluctuations resurfaced, and the capital support remained, so the upward trend of the silver price remained unchanged [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's May core machinery orders [15] - 10:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025 [16] - 15:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025 [16] - 20:30 Canada's May wholesale sales [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 190,529, a decrease of 1,296 or - 0.68% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 60,067, a decrease of 2,596 or - 4.14%; the net position was 130,462, an increase of 1,300 or 1.01% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 451,592, an increase of 60,922 or 15.59% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 345,222, an increase of 31,598 or 10.08%; the net position was 106,370, an increase of 29,324 or 38.06% [6][33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Trump's statement about implementing a 50% copper tariff led to a decline in gold prices. The support for gold has significantly weakened, with the upward momentum clearly diminishing. There is a need to be vigilant about downward pressure. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 4 yuan/gram. Although there are fluctuations in tariffs, the impact on gold prices is limited, and the prices are oscillating [4]. - Silver: Trump's statement about the copper tariff caused silver prices to rise initially and then fall back. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan/kg. Similar to gold, the upward momentum of silver prices has weakened, and there is a risk of downward pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures dropped 0.95% to $3311.00 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2.38 basis points to 4.401%, and the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 97.49. The offshore RMB against the US dollar remained basically flat at 7.1806 [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $36.93 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2.38 basis points to 4.401%, and the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 97.49. The offshore RMB against the US dollar remained basically flat at 7.1806 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures increased by 102 kg to 21456 kg, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis shows a neutral situation. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4036 kg to 1334731 kg, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Economic data: At 07:50, Japan's June M3 money stock year - on - year; at 09:30, China's June CPI and PPI year - on - year; at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment report; at 22:00, the final value of the US May wholesale inventory month - on - month. - Speeches: At 18:45, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak; at 19:00, European Central Bank Vice - President Luis de Guindos will speak. - Meetings: At 17:30, the Bank of England will release the minutes of its financial policy meeting. - Others: China's June credit data may be released today; OPEC will hold its 9th OPEC International Seminar from today to July 10 [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. Trump's tariff statement and various market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and the US dollar index all have an impact on gold prices [4]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is neutral. Similar to gold, it is affected by Trump's tariff statement and various market indicators [6]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 3738 to 197020 on July 8 compared to July 7, a decrease of 1.86%. The short position increased by 94 to 63072, an increase of 0.15%. The net position decreased by 3832 to 133948, a decrease of 2.78% [30]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 4360 to 402152 on July 8 compared to July 7, an increase of 1.10%. The short position increased by 11823 to 333284, an increase of 3.68%. The net position decreased by 7463 to 68868, a decrease of 9.78% [33]. - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly. The silver ETF position increased and is higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The COMEX gold warehouse receipt increased slightly and remains at a high level. The Shanghai gold warehouse receipt continued to increase. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipt turned to an increase and is higher than the same period last year, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipt decreased slightly [39][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Trump's latest tariff plan led to the selling of US stocks and bonds. With the early extension of the suspension period, the gold price first rose and then fell. The impact of tariffs will decline again, and the gold price is expected to be volatile. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 2.3 yuan/gram. Although there have been recent news of additional tariffs in some regions, the gold price has shown limited reaction [4]. - Silver: Trump's latest tariff plan also affected silver. With the extension of the tariff suspension period, the silver price oscillated and closed down. It has returned to following the gold price, and the impact of tariffs has decreased. The silver price is expected to be weakly volatile. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks and bonds were sold due to Trump's tariff plan. The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes had mixed closing results, US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.56 basis points to 4.377%), the US dollar index rose 0.58% to 97.55, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1796, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce. The gold basis was -4.4 (spot at a discount to futures), gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 3000 kg to 21456 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price oscillated and closed down. COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. The silver basis was -16 (spot at a discount to futures), the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9051 kg to 1330695 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line above it, and the main net long position decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver still mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Factors such as global turmoil, rising US stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns are positive for silver. On the other hand, factors like the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for silver [12][13]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's May trade balance - 12:30: The Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest rate decision - 13:30: RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference - Time TBD: EU finance ministers' meeting, with ECB Vice - President Guindos participating - 18:00: US June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - 22:00: ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel speaks - 03:00 (next day): US May consumer credit [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: Various gold and silver futures and spot prices, as well as the US dollar index, showed different changes. For example, Shanghai gold 2510 fell 0.54%, Shanghai silver 2508 fell 0.50%, etc. [15]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and the relationship between domestic and foreign spot prices are presented through charts [16][20]. - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: The 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.56 basis points to 4.377%, and the TIPS inflation expectation and other related data are shown [24]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 152 (0.08%) to 200,758, short positions increased by 181 (0.29%) to 62,978, and the net position decreased by 29 (-0.02%) to 137,780 [26][27]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 5,018 (-1.25%) to 397,792, short positions decreased by 5,409 (-1.65%) to 321,461, and the net position increased by 391 (0.51%) to 76,331 [28][29]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions decreased slightly, while silver ETF positions oscillated and were higher than the same period in the past two years [31][34]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase, COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts changed to an increase and were higher than last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [35][36][38].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 8, 2025 - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Finance Team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of the $3.4 trillion Big Beauty Act by the US Congress and better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls data in the US have suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pushed up the US dollar index, and pressured precious metal prices. However, Trump's 2.0 new policy has boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. Although gold's short - term trend may be weak, its medium - term upward trend remains intact [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the uncertainties of Trump's new policy, along with weak global economic growth and geopolitical risks, will continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market for gold. But high price levels also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation pressure on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The US Congress passing the Big Beauty Act and strong non - farm payrolls data have suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pushing up the US dollar index and causing the London gold price to correct to around $3305 per ounce during the Asian session on the 7th. It may continue to be weak in the short term [4]. - Trump's 2.0 new policy has boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility has increased, but its medium - term upward trend is good. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - This week, attention should be paid to China's June financial data, the Fed's meeting minutes, and international trade situations [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Weakening trade situation concerns and a strong stock market rebound have reduced gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but other factors continue to support the price. South Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitical risks provide short - term upward momentum [5]. - In early June, speculative funds flooded into the silver and platinum markets, causing London silver to soar from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six trading days [5]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and Trump's new policy uncertainties will support gold's long - and medium - term bull markets. However, high price levels mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling. Short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 777.50 | 777.59 | 769.92 | 771.87 | - 0.72% | 399,160 | - 10,573 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,950 | 8,981 | 8,873 | 8,902 | - 0.53% | 898,973 | - 17,088 | | Gold T + D | 771.57 | 772.50 | 765.39 | 767.15 | - 0.57% | 228,910 | 8,254 | | Silver T + D | 8,885 | 8,935 | 8,830 | 8,858 | - 0.30% | 3,338,736 | 79,962 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [7][9][11][13][15][16]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US is close to reaching several trade agreements before the July 9 deadline for higher tariffs, and the Trump administration will notify 100 small countries of higher tariffs. Trump has signed letters to 12 countries regarding different tariff levels, which will be sent on Monday [17]. - China's Ministry of Finance announced that starting from July 6, EU enterprises (excluding European - funded enterprises in China) will be excluded from participating in government procurement of medical devices with a budget of over 45 million yuan. This is a counter - measure in response to the EU's restrictions on Chinese enterprises [17]. - OPEC + agreed on Saturday to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating the production increase pace. Since April, OPEC + has increased production by 1.918 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of only 280,000 barrels per day in the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in gold prices and a pull - back in silver prices after a rise. The tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, while silver prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the global situation has become extremely volatile. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall back, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Silver prices are more affected by tariff concerns and may see an enlarged increase [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly high, cooling the interest rate cut expectation and causing gold prices to fall. The US and European stock markets rose, the US dollar index increased by 0.35% to 97.12, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6.30 basis points to 4.242%. COMEX gold futures fell 0.71% to $3336.00 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly high, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Silver prices rose first and then fell. The US and European stock markets rose, the US dollar index increased by 0.35% to 97.12, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6.30 basis points to 4.242%. COMEX silver futures rose 0.85% to $37.04 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.28, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price; the inventory of gold futures increased by 3 kilograms to 18456 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 20, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 2133 kilograms to 1340792 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - All - day: US financial markets are closed. - 17:00: Eurozone May PPI. - 20:15: Speech by Villeroy, member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and President of the Bank of France. - 23:00: Speech by Taylor, member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). - Next day 01:30: Speech by Taylor, member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). - Next day 04:00: US President Trump will hold a signing and celebration event for the "Great Beautiful Tax Bill" at the White House. - Sunday: Vietnam's Q2 GDP, OPEC + meeting to discuss August oil production policy, and the opening of the 2025 BRICS Summit in Brazil. - 14:00: Germany's May factory orders. - 15:30: European Central Bank President Lagarde meets with German Chancellor Merz. - 16:00: Speech by Elderson, member of the European Central Bank Executive Board [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the interest rate cut expectation; the tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. The Shanghai - gold premium has converged to 3.5 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the interest rate cut expectation; the tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. The Shanghai - silver premium has converged to about 420 yuan per kilogram [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1456 to 200503, the short position decreased by 29 to 65235, and the net position decreased by 1427 to 135268 [27]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 29036 to 411699, the short position increased by 42443 to 338958, and the net position decreased by 13407 to 72741 [30].