Group 1: Market Trends - The ratio of the Dow Jones Index to gold prices has decreased to 1.2 times, the lowest level since October 2014[3] - The S&P 500 Index to gold price ratio has fallen to 1.8 times, nearing its year-to-date low[3] - The oil-to-gold price ratio has dropped to 10.9, the second-lowest level in over 100 years, indicating strong recession expectations[6] Group 2: Investment Insights - Short selling of ultra-long U.S. Treasury ETFs has reached 24% of total shares, the highest since February 2022, suggesting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields[10] - The net interest margin for U.S. small and medium banks remains high, with margins of 3.8% for banks with assets between $100 million and $1 billion[13] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is at 4.5%, below the historical average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[18] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The expectation for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fall below 4% is not supported by trading data, as short selling increases[10] - The 10-year Chinese government bond forward arbitrage return is currently 30 basis points, 60 basis points higher than in December 2016[21] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.5, indicating a divergence with the offshore RMB exchange rate, which has risen to 7.1[26]

Report Overview - This is a precious metals morning report released on October 22, 2025, by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department, focusing on gold and silver [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Due to profit - taking by funds and a stronger US dollar, gold prices dropped significantly, with an intraday decline of over 5.7%, the largest single - day decline since 2013. However, long - term upward trends remain due to trade concerns, government shutdowns, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the short term, prices are likely to be volatile under capital pressure [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices also tumbled, with an intraday decline of nearly 8%. It still has support as it follows gold prices, but there is short - term callback pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures closed down 5.07% at $4138.5 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.953%, and the US dollar index rose 0.35% to 98.97 [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures closed down 6.27% at $48.16 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index had the same changes as gold [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Today, pay attention to the UK's September CPI and the speech of the ECB President. The long - term upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, but it is volatile in the short term [4]. - **Silver**: Although silver prices are supported by following gold, there is short - term callback pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's September imports, exports, and trade balance; Time TBD China's Solid - State Battery Conference; 10:00 Thailand's central bank's October monetary policy meeting minutes and policy forum analyst meeting; 14:00 UK's September CPI; 19:00 ECB Deputy President de Guindos' speech; 20:25 ECB President Lagarde's speech; Next day 05:00 Bank of England Deputy Governor Woods' speech [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.03, with the spot at a discount to the futures; gold futures warehouse receipts are 86,565 kg, a daily decrease of 1,959 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 15, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 749,362 kg, a daily decrease of 106,488 kg [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the long positions of the main players are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long positions of the main players are increasing [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, gold prices continued to reach new highs. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, with the Shanghai gold premium slightly converging to -3.5 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment significantly rising [4]. - Silver: Affected by tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, silver prices also reached new highs. Although the increase in silver prices was not significantly enlarged, the upward trend remained unchanged, and the Shanghai silver premium converged to -125 yuan/gram, with domestic silver price sentiment stable [5]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices were difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly followed gold prices. Tariff concerns had a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US stocks fell, European stocks rose, US bond yields declined (10 - year US bond yield fell 5.94 basis points to 3.973%), the US dollar index dropped 0.31% to 98.36, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 3.40% to $4344.3 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures rose 3.99% to $53.43 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -1.82, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased (bullish) [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms (neutral). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, and the main long position increased (bullish) [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: Speech by Japanese central bank deputy governor Uchida Masakazu at 14:35; speech by RBA deputy governor Hauser at 15:15; release of Eurozone September CPI final value at 17:00; speech by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill at 17:35; possible release of US September new home starts and other data at 20:30; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and German central bank president Nagel and German finance minister Kingbeil at 20:45; release of Italian central bank quarterly economic report at 21:00; speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene at 00:00 the next day; speech by St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 00:15 the next day; speech by Bank of England deputy governor Breeden at 00:30 the next day; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn at 01:00 the next day; release of US August international capital flow at 04:00 the next day [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was -1.82, and the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite significantly cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly but rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to -5 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment increased notably [4]. - For silver, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded significantly to -250 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment for silver price recovered notably [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 2.50 basis points to 4.028%), the dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.05, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.14, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $4159.60 per ounce. The basis was -3.97 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1455 kilograms to 72183 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 6.37 basis points to 4.053%), the dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.26, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.1478, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. The basis was -41 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 61384 kilograms to 1063072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [6]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The expected events to watch include China's CPI and PPI, whether the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Fed's Beige Book, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members. Despite the resurfaced tariff concerns, the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly and then rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Silver**: The expected events to watch are the same as for gold. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. 3.3今日关注 The events to watch on this day include: at 07:30, the speech of Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs of the Reserve Bank of Australia; at 09:30, China's September CPI and PPI; the time - undetermined release of India's September imports, exports, and trade balance; at 15:40, the speech of de Guindos, Vice - President of the European Central Bank; at 16:00, the speech of Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 17:00, the euro - zone's August industrial output; possibly at 20:30, the U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:30, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the "Invest in America Forum"; at 21:45, the speeches of ECB Governing Council members Donnelly and Rehn; at 23:45, the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 23:50, the speech of Villeroy, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France; at 00:15, Donnelly's participation in a panel discussion at the IIF Annual Meeting; at 00:30 the next day, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the Nomura Research Forum; at 01:00 the next day, Fed Governor Waller's talk on artificial intelligence (AI); at 02:00 the next day, the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 02:30 the next day, the speech of Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2025 FOMC voter); at 03:45 the next day, the participation of Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in a fireside chat during the Nomura Research Forum; at 05:50 the next day, the speech of Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets of the Reserve Bank of Australia [15]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory increase is bearish, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also a mix. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory change is neutral, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [6]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.28% (from 220,070 to 210,658), the short positions increased by 0.33% (from 78,569 to 78,831), and the net position decreased by 6.84% (from 141,501 to 131,827) [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.22% (from 368,167 to 356,307), the short positions decreased by 1.81% (from 268,339 to 263,493), and the net position decreased by 7.03% (from 99,828 to 92,814) [6][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, leading to a pull - back in gold prices due to profit - taking. Although the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to the presence of risk - aversion sentiment and easing expectations, short - term profit - taking after a significant rise may cause gold prices to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has rapidly widened to - 8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: After overseas silver hit a record high and fell back, profit - taking drove silver prices down as silver reached an important target level. The premium of Shanghai silver has significantly converged to - 175 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment is cautious. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be short - term fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, causing gold prices to fall due to profit - taking. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX gold futures fell 1.95% to $3991.10 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX silver futures fell 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis of gold is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. Gold futures warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis of silver is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Data that may be released: China's aggregate financing to the real economy from January to September and new RMB loans. - Speeches and events: At 09:40, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will discuss the US economy and science and technology at an event with Silicon Valley executives; the EU finance ministers will hold a meeting (time to be determined); at 15:40, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva will speak; at 17:00, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced; at 20:30, Canada's employment report for September (including employment numbers and unemployment rate) will be released; at 21:45, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will give an opening speech and host a discussion at a community bankers' seminar; at 22:00, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October in the US will be released; at 01:00 the next day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (a 2025 FOMC voter) will participate in a fireside chat related to the US economy and FOMC monetary policy; at 02:00 the next day, the US government budget for September will be released [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures; warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing [5]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing [6].

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月30日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国政府停摆担忧推高金价，金价再创新高；美国三大股指小幅上涨， 欧洲三大股指收盘小幅收涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌4.26个基 点报4.137%；美元指数跌0.26%报97.94，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1294；COMEX黄 金期货涨1.42%报3862.90美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中国9月PMI、日央行会议纪要、美国8月职位空缺、美联储和欧 央行委员密集讲话。美国政府停摆担忧推高金价，地缘冲突依旧，金价走高。沪金 溢价收敛至-9.4元/克。美国政府关门担忧仍存， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国GDP增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，10月降息预期降温，金 价回升；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线收跌；美债收益率多数上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.93个基点报4.158%；美元指数涨0.60%报98.47，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1452；COMEX黄金期货涨0.33%报3780.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货854.72，现货850.58，基差-4.14，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单60543千克，增加1530千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar, gold prices declined. However, high expectations of interest rate cuts, supply concerns (as evidenced by copper prices rising over 3% to a more than one - year high), and the expansion of the Shanghai gold premium may support gold prices. Gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult under the current global situation [4]. - For silver, silver prices also dropped as the US dollar rebounded. But it may be supported by supply concerns and high interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US dollar rebounded, causing gold prices to fall. US stocks slightly declined, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields rose (10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.24 basis points to 4.149%), the US dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, and the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce. The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US dollar rebounded, leading to a drop in silver prices. US stocks declined across the board, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields fell (10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 4.06 basis points to 4.106%), the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.23, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.11% to $44.115 per ounce. The basis was - 67, and the Shanghai silver premium slightly expanded to around 240 yuan per kilogram. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Positive factors include global turmoil with remaining risk - aversion sentiment, strong expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the implementation of Trump's new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult [10]. - **Silver**: Positive factors are similar to those of gold, with tariff concerns having a stronger impact on silver prices. Negative factors are also the same as those of gold. The logic is that silver prices generally follow gold prices, and due to stronger tariff concerns, silver prices may see an expanded increase [13]. 3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting; the Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24 - 26 in Hangzhou, the Xiaomi 17 series launch event and the 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held in Xi'an; at 14:00, Germany's October GfK consumer confidence index will be released; at 14:45, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir will present macro - expectations; at 15:30, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest - rate decision; at 16:00, the European Central Bank will publish its economic bulletin, and the Swiss National Bank President Schlegel will hold a press conference; at 20:15, Federal Reserve Governor Milan will participate in a Bloomberg TV program; at 20:20, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 20:30, the final value of the US second - quarter GDP, the preliminary value of August durable goods orders, the goods trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be released; at 21:00, New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the Fourth Annual Conference on the International Role of the US Dollar, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 22:00, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in August will be released, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on regulatory issues; at 01:00 the next day, former Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman for Supervision Barr will talk about bank stress tests; at 01:40, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech manuscript will be released; at 03:00 the next day, the Bank of Mexico will announce its interest - rate decision; at 03:30, San Francisco Fed President Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will speak [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms, also a bearish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 67, which is a neutral factor. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 12756 kilograms to 1161799 kilograms, also a neutral factor [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased, which is a bullish factor [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices dropped significantly with reduced positions. After the Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations, the positive news was exhausted, and the lack of spot support led copper prices back to a volatile trend. There is still a probability of triggering a recession expectation due to the slowdown of the US economy and the rapid decline of employment indicators. On the industrial fundamental side, the return of the peak season is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether there will be pre - holiday inventory reduction through stocking. The spot premium has fallen from a high level, and social inventory has increased. Although the smelting processing fee is low, the production remains stable. Globally, copper inventory is still not low. The total position of copper has dropped below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan, and spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - **PMI**: In August 2025, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.05% (up 0.7 percentage points month - on - month), while the US manufacturing level declined. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month), hitting a 9 - month low and staying below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4% (up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months [12]. - **Interest - rate cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP after highlighting economic slowdown risks and pressured employment data. The market had fully priced in the cut in advance, and the interest - rate cut path remained cautious, with a weakened impact on inflation expectations. The US economic data continued to slow down, and employment indicators dropped rapidly, increasing the risk of a recession [5][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper concentrate supply**: In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons (up 2.54% year - on - year), with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025 from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons (up 3.32% year - on - year), with a surplus of 25.1 million tons. China's copper concentrate imports also showed an increasing trend. In 2025 August, imports were 275.9 million tons (up 7.2% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month), with cumulative imports from January to August at 2005.4 million tons (up 7.9% year - on - year) [22][29]. - **TC**: On September 19, 2025, the SMM import copper concentrate index was - 40.8 dollars/dry ton (up 0.5 dollars/dry ton from the previous period). The 2025 long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [33]. - **Refined copper production**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 0.24%) but increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a growth of 12.30%). It is expected that in September, production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 4.48%) but increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.42%) [40]. - **Refined copper import and export**: In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (up 6.49% year - on - year) and exported 45.75 million tons (up 63.86% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 29.69 million tons (down 1.20% month - on - month but up 7.56% year - on - year), and exports soared to 11.84 million tons (up 49.86% month - on - month and 69.13% year - on - year) [46]. - **Scrap copper supply**: In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (up 13.26% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 19.01 million tons (up 3.73% month - on - month but down 2.36% year - on - year), and from January to July, cumulative imports were 133.55 million tons (down 0.77% year - on - year) [50]. - **Consumption end**: - **Power and grid investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 11687.22 billion yuan (up 12.14% year - on - year), and grid investment was 6082.58 billion yuan (up 15.26% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to July, power investment was 4288 billion yuan (up 3.4% year - on - year), and grid investment was 3315 billion yuan (up 12.5% year - on - year) [54]. - **Air - conditioner production**: In 2024 from January to December, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 26598.44 million units (up 9.7% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to August, it was 19964.62 million units (up 5.8% year - on - year), with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [57]. - **Automobile production**: In 2025 from January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively (up 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year). New energy vehicle production and sales were 962.5 million and 962 million vehicles respectively (up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year), with a new - car penetration rate of 45.5% [62]. - **Real estate**: In 2024 from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 7.37 billion square meters (down 27.7% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In August 2025, the completion area was 2.77 billion square meters (down 17% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year [64]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 57 million tons (up 1.17 million tons week - on - week). The LME copper inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 14.77 million tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.17 million tons to 10.58 million tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 6290 tons to 31.68 million tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 7.68 million tons (up 0.41 million tons from the previous week) [69]. - **CFTC non - commercial net position**: As of September 16, 2025, the CFTC non - commercial long - net position was 30348 lots (up 3107 lots week - on - week), with non - commercial long positions at 69370 lots (up 5077 lots week - on - week) and non - commercial short positions at 39022 lots (up 1970 lots week - on - week) [71]. - **Premium and discount**: As of September 19, 2025, the LME copper spot discount was - 64.9 dollars/ton. The Shanghai area's premium stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that next week, if the copper price remains around 80000 yuan/ton, the downstream's pre - holiday stocking sentiment may be better than expected; otherwise, it may decline [80]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - contract was 200 yuan/ton [82]. Market Outlook - The copper price dropped significantly with reduced positions, and the total position fell below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan. Spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 1、基本面：美联储如期降息25个基点，美联储给出的信号鹰鸽参半，金价回落；美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨6.12个基点 报4.089%；美元指数涨0.40%报97.03，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1023；COMEX 黄金期货跌0.82%报3694.60美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注欧央行行长讲话、英央行利率决议和会议纪要、欧央行官员密集 讲话。美联储会议如期降息，但信号未如市场预期鸽派，预期落地，金价回落。沪 金溢价继续收敛至-9元/克。金价情绪有所收敛，等待回落后机会。 2、基差：黄金期货835.08，现货832.55，基差- ...