结构性改革

Search documents
邢自强:看空美元,预计美将持续降息近100个基点,建议3万亿收储一二线城市商品房
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 02:21
邢自强系摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家,中国首席经济学家论坛理事 9月22日,在一周宏观策略谈上,摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强围绕三个宏观主线阐述了他对中国经济的最新研判。 邢自强维持对于2025年中国经济将呈现"前高后低"走势的判断, 他预计,快的话9月底,慢的话10月底,将出台规模不到万亿的温和托底政策, 但与此同时,因为美国缺移民,进口价格也贵了,它的通胀不会降。 美国的通胀甚至有可能不降反升,保持在3%左右的高位。 这样美国的实际利率,以及美国债券去掉通胀的实际收入,在未来半年显著缩短,甚至低于其他很多国家。 因此美元贬值在所难免,美债也就相对缺乏吸引力,甚至可能出现较大的波动。 邢自强认为中国若能用好7-8万亿人民币,去实现房地产市场的企稳回升,实现社保改革的抓手,促进消费占GDP的比率上升到 2030年的45%,那么有望在"十五五"期间引领全球基本面复苏。 投资报(liulishidian)整理精选了邢自强分享的精华内容如下: 但仅靠短期刺激难以打破通缩循环,关键在于"十五五"期间推进结构性改革。 他提出两大核心建议: 一是由出资约3万亿元,在一二线城市收储150万套商品房转化为保障房,以快速去库 ...
“9·24”一年了,增量政策会再来一轮吗
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-09-24 15:00
2025年9月24日,沪指收于3853.64点,4000余只个股上涨;而在2024年9月中下旬,沪指一度跌至2689 点。 一年间,沪指上涨超过1000点。 在增量政策的推动下,中国消费、股市等多个领域呈现了积极的进展。 但进入2025年下半年,消费和投资增速放缓,部分城市房地产价格波动加大,市场也随之抛出疑问:会 有新一轮"924"政策吗?新的增量政策又将呈现怎样的态势? 张林认为,新一轮"924"政策可能需要更具针对性,解决此前政策未能完全化解的矛盾。一方面,房地 产的持续下行应当得到进一步重视,另一方面,货币政策和财政政策要进一步做好协同配合,例如中国 人民银行(下称"央行")通过在二级市场购买国债等措施向市场注入流动性,这有助于同时拓展财政政 策与货币政策的空间,并引导这些流动性进一步向民营经济、外贸部门与民生部门等薄弱环节流动,改 善微观主体的实际感受。 中诚信国际研究院执行院长袁海霞称:"当前面临的问题只依赖短期调控不能完全解决,需要同步推进 结构性改革。" 袁海霞认为应从四个方面推进深层次改革:一是持续推动收入分配改革,提高居民初次分配占比;二是 推动公共服务均等化,完善社会保障体系;三是加快构 ...
IMF:韩国应继续实施宽松政策,并推动结构性改革
智通财经网· 2025-09-24 04:08
Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommends that South Korea maintain accommodative fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery while emphasizing the importance of structural reforms for long-term growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF forecasts South Korea's economy to grow by 0.9% this year, accelerating to 1.8% by 2026, driven by supportive policies and strong semiconductor exports [2] - Inflation is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's target of 2% during this period [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The IMF suggests that South Korea has sufficient policy space to stimulate the economy, but the policy mix should remain flexible to adapt to changing external risks [1] - The IMF supports the South Korean government's new economic growth strategy focused on artificial intelligence applications, service exports, and innovation, but stresses the need for accelerated reforms [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The IMF indicates that monetary easing will help drive economic recovery, given that inflation expectations are well-controlled and overall inflation risks are balanced [1] - There is speculation that the Bank of Korea may restart its easing cycle during the next policy meeting on October 23, with indications from committee members that a rate cut this year is reasonable [1]
转型中国:日本1990还是美国1970?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-24 02:27
Group 1: Economic Transformation Insights - China's current transformation strategy is more aligned with the U.S. in the 1970s, focusing on "going global" and "common prosperity" akin to the U.S. deindustrialization and Great Society initiatives[1] - The Chinese economy is entering the latter stage of transformation, with cyclical issues becoming less impactful, as evidenced by the decline in old economic drivers like real estate[1] - The transition phase requires patience in policy implementation, as excessive use of counter-cyclical policies may lead to structural issues similar to the U.S. in the 1960s and 70s[1] Group 2: Market and Policy Implications - The easing of cyclical pressures, particularly in real estate, suggests a potential formation of an "L-shaped" economic recovery, supported by counter-cyclical policies[1] - The ongoing structural reforms and technological breakthroughs, although slow, create opportunities for risk appetite and asset revaluation in the capital markets[1] - The A-share bull market since the "924" policy in 2021 reflects the synergy between counter-cyclical policies and technological advancements in sectors like AI and robotics[1] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the possibility that the pace of structural reforms may not meet expectations, and uncertainties surrounding technological breakthroughs and external economic influences[1] - The decline in housing prices, with first-tier city prices dropping by 34.3% from their peak as of August 2025, highlights the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, indicating persistent economic weakness[3]
【环球财经】穆迪警示巴西财政刚性支出风险 呼吁推进结构性改革
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 04:25
新华财经圣保罗9月22日电(记者杨家和)国际评级机构穆迪公司巴西区总经理卡洛斯·普拉蒂斯近日表 示,巴西长期存在财政刚性支出问题,如果不进行结构性改革,国家将始终处于"被财政束缚的状态"。 普拉蒂斯还提到,巴西在清洁能源方面具备优势,应积极吸引数据中心等新兴产业投资,但要解决高额 进口税与法律不确定性等障碍。他强调,若缺乏长期投资与改革,巴西经济增长将难以摆脱"鸡飞式"的 短周期波动。 (文章来源:新华财经) 在谈及巴西经济前景时,普拉蒂斯表示,随着通胀预期逐渐稳定和利率政策即将进入下行周期,企业整 体风险状况趋于改善,但财政依然是制约巴西信用评级的核心因素。他指出,在穆迪的评级体系中,巴 西经济体量和多元性是优势,但财政问题仍拖累整体评级。 关于近期美国提高对巴西部分产品关税的影响,普拉蒂斯认为实际冲击有限,因为巴西对美出口仅占总 出口的约12%。不过,他提醒称,不确定性本身才是影响投资环境的主要风险。 普拉蒂斯在接受CNN Brasil财经栏目采访时指出,巴西需要"更好地控制收入与支出",关键在于改革公 共财政体系,使政府能够更自由地配置收入,并减少难以削减的强制性开支。 他强调,国会需要开始讨论一些"并 ...
报告建议强化政策协同,推动“十五五”时期价格合理回升
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-21 15:28
报告建议,适度宽松的货币政策再发力,考虑到受价格水平偏低影响实际利率仍较高,后续可根据经济 形势和市场情况,进一步降准降息,降低企业融资成本、降低居民负债压力,进而提升市场需求,同 时,进一步健全市场化利率调控机制,提高货币政策传导效率,有效发挥货币政策稳定物价的功能。此 外,优化信货结构,配合财政政策加大对重点领域的支持。 报告指出,"反内卷"政策初见成效,已成为中国经济结构性调整的关键举措,预计 "十五五"时期将保 持政策的连续性,依据法律法规治理企业的无序竞争行为;避免通过行政手段直接对行业及企业定价进 行干预,转而采用高效的激励办法,实现优质产品对应合理高价的良性循环。 报告还提出,同步推进收入分配、社保、统一大市场等结构性改革,通过改革释放制度红利。例如,加 快打通市场卡点堵点,加快要素市场化改革,完善市场决定要素价格机制,健全要素按贡献決定报酬机 制;加大对医疗、教育、养老、托幼、生育补贴等民生领域支出,缓解居民支出压力与未来不确定性, 增强消费预期。 报告认为,"反内卷"政策推进下,部分能源和原材料行业供需关系改善,带动行业价格水平显著改善, 8月煤炭开采、黑色金属采选冶炼等上游原材料相关环节行 ...
刚果(金)政府已审议通过2026年度财政预算案
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-17 17:32
他指出,推进结构性改革——包括财政机构数字化、优化减免政策以及改善营商环境——将是预算 顺利落实的关键。 根据程序,预算案于9月15日提交国民议会审议。国民议会需在40天内完成表决,随后参议院将在 20天内进行二读,最终交由总统颁布实施。 刚副总理兼预算部长穆齐托表示,该预算案彰显了政府巩固宏观经济稳定、保持财政可持续,并力 争到2028年将财政收入翻一番的决心。同时,预算案还着力增强国家自主筹资能力,重点支持战略性发 展领域。 (原标题:刚果(金)政府已审议通过2026年度财政预算案) 9月12日据刚果(金)当地媒体Actualité.cd报道,刚政府审议通过2026年度财政预算案,预算总额 约203亿美元,较2025年增长16.4%。 ...
全球财政:共振预期与长期困境 - 从海外政治风波说起
2025-09-10 14:35
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global fiscal landscape, particularly focusing on developed economies such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the European Union. Core Insights and Arguments - Political turbulence in multiple countries is closely linked to fiscal policies, with governments facing pressure to adjust their fiscal strategies due to declining public support [1][3] - The long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates in developed economies have risen significantly, indicating market pricing for potential fiscal expansion [1][4] - A collective fiscal expansion across multiple economies is anticipated in 2026, with significant stimulus measures expected from the US, Japan, Germany, and the EU [1][6] - The trend of de-globalization is increasing inflationary pressures and limiting monetary easing, making large-scale fiscal expansion a necessary response to economic downturns [1][7] - Political polarization poses challenges to timely implementation of fiscal policies, potentially destabilizing the bond market and reducing the effectiveness of fiscal expansion [1][8][9] - Structural issues in developed economies, such as Japan's aging population and Europe's investment shortfalls, limit the effectiveness of fiscal policies [1][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The US faces rapidly rising interest expenditures, which could strain fiscal sustainability, while Europe and Japan are constrained by mandatory social security expenditures [2][11] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus may be compromised by political polarization and the inability to convert fiscal measures into effective economic growth [1][8] - Gold is highlighted as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising inflation concerns and fiscal expansion, with industrial metals also presenting potential investment opportunities in the near future [1][12]
石破辞职、日本走向何方
2025-09-09 02:37
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the political landscape in Japan, particularly focusing on the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the upcoming elections for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1][2][6]. Core Points and Arguments - **Resignation of Shigeru Ishiba**: Ishiba resigned following the LDP's poor performance in the July 2025 Senate elections, where the ruling coalition failed to secure a majority, marking the lowest seat count in 10-15 years [2]. - **LDP Presidential Election Process**: The election will follow a complete process involving 590 votes, split between National Diet members and LDP members. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second round will occur with increased weight on National Diet votes [3][4]. - **Candidates and Policies**: Key candidates include Sanae Takaichi, who supports monetary easing and fiscal expansion, and Shinjiro Koizumi, who advocates for structural reforms and labor market flexibility [1][9][10]. - **Market Reactions**: Ishiba's resignation is expected to lead to a more favorable market environment, with potential for increased stock market activity and a weaker yen, as candidates are likely to adopt more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies compared to Ishiba [14][15]. - **Economic Policy Implications**: The new prime minister may implement slight fiscal relaxations, such as tax cuts, but significant increases in fiscal stimulus could risk downgrading Japan's credit rating due to high debt levels [16][18]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term, as the new prime minister will be in office for less than a month before any potential rate changes, and the central bank is waiting for wage data to assess inflation impacts [17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Japanese companies traditionally avoid layoffs during economic downturns, opting instead to reduce bonuses and extend working hours, which limits flexibility in the labor market [11][12]. - **Comparison with U.S. Practices**: Unlike U.S. firms that frequently adjust workforce levels based on economic conditions, Japanese firms maintain a more stable workforce, which can hinder their ability to adapt to economic fluctuations [11]. - **Potential for Increased Inequality**: Koizumi's proposed reforms to relax dismissal regulations could enhance labor market fluidity but may also exacerbate income inequality [13]. - **GDP Growth Indicators**: Recent data indicates Japan's nominal GDP growth at 4.9% for Q2 2025, suggesting improvements in consumer spending and corporate earnings, which could positively influence the overall economic outlook [18][19].
昨夜欧洲股债汇三杀,背后发生了啥
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-09-03 08:06
Group 1: Market Reactions - The European financial market experienced a significant crisis on September 2, with the British pound dropping 1.52% and the German DAX index falling over 2% [1][2] - The UK 30-year government bond yield surged to 5.69%, the highest since 1998, while France's 30-year yield exceeded 4.5%, marking a peak not seen since 2011 [2] - The US market also faced pressure, with major indices declining and the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5%, indicating a sharp drop in investor risk appetite [3] Group 2: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - The core driver of the market turmoil is deep concern over fiscal sustainability, with proposals for a windfall tax on bank reserves and new tax measures raising doubts about the UK's fiscal outlook [2] - Analysts warn of a vicious cycle where debt concerns lead to rising yields, further deteriorating debt dynamics [2] - The challenge for European countries is to balance spending pressures from geopolitical security and economic recovery with maintaining debt sustainability [2] Group 3: Structural Changes and Policy Challenges - Structural factors, such as the reform of the Dutch pension system, are reshaping the European bond market, with younger members directed towards riskier assets and older members shortening their duration hedges [4] - The European Central Bank faces limited policy space due to rising inflation, with August's inflation rate in the Eurozone at 2.1%, exceeding market expectations [4] - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside, complicating the central bank's response to economic growth and inflation pressures [4] Group 4: Long-term Market Volatility - The current financial market turmoil reflects the fiscal policy dilemmas faced by European countries and highlights the limitations of traditional monetary policy tools amid increasing global economic uncertainty [5] - As debt burdens rise and geopolitical risks escalate, the global financial market may face prolonged volatility, necessitating investor preparedness for this "new normal" [5]