Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will play a crucial role in determining whether the recent downward trend of the U.S. dollar will continue [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that persistent inflation and a solid labor market indicate that interest rates should remain at restrictive levels [1] - Any unexpected downturn in the employment report could weaken Powell's position and increase market expectations for a rate cut in the July meeting [1] - Unless the employment data is weaker than expected, the dollar may continue to consolidate before the U.S. holiday on July 4 [1]

Group 1 - Silver prices closed at $36.55 per ounce on July 2, with a daily increase of 1.51%, reaching a high of $36.60 and a low of $35.86 during the day [1] - As of July 2, silver ETF holdings were reported at 14,846.12 tons, a decrease of 22.89 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - The recent trend shows silver prices in a bullish channel, with multiple attempts to break the $38 per ounce resistance level, although it has not been successfully maintained [4] Group 2 - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is strengthening, with the fast and slow lines operating above the zero axis and the histogram showing increasing red bars [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60, indicating a strong market condition with potential for further upward movement in silver prices [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may influence market sentiment towards silver [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant downturn due to multiple macroeconomic and technical factors, with a shift in focus from geopolitical issues to U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators impacting monetary policy [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened last week at $3,380.10 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,391, but quickly fell below the $3,350 support level, which turned into resistance. The price dropped below $3,300 for the first time on Tuesday and fell to a weekly low of $3,256 on Friday, with a slight recovery to around $3,275 [1][5]. Market Sentiment - A recent Kitco survey indicates that the majority of Wall Street analysts are bearish on gold prices, with only 35% expecting an increase, while over half anticipate further declines. In contrast, 51% of retail investors remain bullish, highlighting a significant divergence in views between institutions and retail investors [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Analysts express differing opinions on gold's technical outlook. Some suggest that if gold cannot regain the $3,344 level, it will maintain a downward trend, potentially targeting $3,175 if it falls below $3,258. Others believe that the long-term support for gold remains intact due to inflation concerns and expectations of monetary easing [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. employment data, including ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, are expected to be critical in determining gold's price trajectory. Weak data could reinforce rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resurgence in gold prices [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, with Chairman Powell indicating that recent economic data could have supported further rate cuts if not for concerns over tariffs impacting inflation efforts [1] - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, but emphasized that the strong economy and job market do not necessitate immediate action [1][4] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for an early rate cut, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting a potential cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens [1][4] Group 2 - Concerns remain regarding U.S. inflation, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the latest meeting, marking the fourth consecutive time without a change, while also raising inflation expectations for 2025-2027 [2] - Recent inflation data has not yet shown significant impacts from tariff policies, indicating a delayed transmission effect on prices [3] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000 in May, despite being the lowest since February, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [3] - Powell reiterated the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to support employment while ensuring price stability, suggesting that the economy is in a "good position" and that immediate rate adjustments are unnecessary [4] - The Fed's economic outlook indicates a consensus for two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials not supporting a cut has increased, reflecting growing internal divisions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while labor data suggests a potential rise in unemployment rates [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased slightly by 0.1% in May, and the number of unemployment claims remains high at 248,000 [1] - These factors have heightened expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in early fall, with a 61% probability for a rate cut in September, up from 58% the previous day [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings in the next week and July [1] - The likelihood of two or more rate cuts by December has risen to 78%, compared to 70% the day before [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve movements, has decreased to 3.891% due to the impact of this data [1]

Core Viewpoint - HTFX suggests that despite the seemingly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for May, underlying signals indicate potential weaknesses in the labor market, which may lead to a shift in the dollar's performance and prompt the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle sooner than expected [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The May job additions were reported at 139,000, exceeding the market expectation of 125,000, but previous data has been significantly revised downwards, with March's job additions cut from 224,000 to 120,000, indicating a trend of downward revisions [1][3]. - HTFX anticipates that the May employment increase will likely be revised down to around 100,000 in the future, reflecting a fragile foundation for current employment growth, particularly among small businesses [1][3]. Group 2: Small Business Impact - The ongoing downward revision trend highlights the "inflated" nature of the data and reveals vulnerabilities in employment growth, especially within small enterprises, which are more sensitive to interest rate and cost changes [3]. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that the small business hiring sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a rapid decline in employment expansion momentum [3]. Group 3: Future Employment Projections - Tombs projects that by the end of 2025, employment in key sectors such as transportation, wholesale, and retail may decrease by approximately 50,000 due to the "overdraft effect" from prior cost expectations [4]. Group 4: Dollar and Federal Reserve Outlook - HTFX believes that while the dollar index remains relatively strong, continued weak employment data and easing inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to potentially start a rate cut process as early as September, marking a significant turning point for the forex market [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming revisions to U.S. employment data, small business confidence indicators, and statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding the labor market, as these factors will directly influence dollar exchange rate fluctuations [6].

Group 1 - The employment report for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, surpassing the market consensus of 125,000, but significant downward revisions to previous months overshadow this positive signal [1] - The initial estimate for March's job growth was revised down from 224,000 to 120,000, indicating a trend of downward adjustments in employment data [1] - The average downward revision of initial estimates to third estimates for non-farm employment data since January 2023 has been approximately 30,000 jobs per month [1] Group 2 - The rising frequency of employment data revisions may be attributed to small businesses delaying data submissions, which are most affected by high interest rates and tariff costs [3] - Small businesses are described as "canaries in the coal mine," facing significant financial challenges that lead to cautious hiring and capital expenditure decisions [3] - Employment in retail, wholesale, and transportation logistics is expected to decline by 50,000 by the end of the year due to the fading "front-loading" effect of tariffs [3] Group 3 - The NFIB small business hiring intentions index has dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a slowdown in hiring intentions [3][6] - A regional Federal Reserve survey shows that hiring intentions are below the average levels from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a correlation between hiring intentions and actual employment growth [7] - The government sector is also expected to see a reduction in jobs, with a decrease of 59,000 positions this year, including a drop of 22,000 in May [10] Group 4 - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% by December, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the labor market [10] - Despite the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, the underlying weakness in the labor market suggests that a shift towards easing policies may be necessary to support businesses [11]

周一（6月9日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金价格小幅下探，截至目前报3326.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.13%，今 日开盘于3333.40美元/盎司，最高上探3341.00美元/盎司，最低触及3313.10美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国劳工部统计局周五发布数据显示，5月非农就业人口增加13.9万（前值下修至14.7万），高于市场预 期的13万人，在贸易政策不确定性影响下就业增长持续放缓，失业率连续第三个月维持在4.2%，这或 许将为美联储推迟降息提供政策空间。美国经济需要每月创造大约10万个就业岗位，才能跟上劳动年龄 人口的增长。 随着美国总统特朗普在打击移民行动中撤销了数十万移民的临时合法身份，这一数字可能会下降。今年 的大部分就业增长反映出，在特朗普在关税问题上摇摆不定之际，企业囤积工人，经济学家表示，这阻 碍了企业提前计划的能力。美国参议院强硬派保守派共和党人和马斯克对特朗普减税和支出法案的反对 给企业增加了另一层不确定性。雇主不愿裁员，可能令美联储在年底前都持观望态度。金融市场预计， 美联储本月将维持基准隔夜利率在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，9月份将恢复宽松政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【宏观】非农数据高于预期，美联储或更偏观望——2025年5月美国非农数据点评兼光大宏观周报（2025- 06-07） 2025年6月3日-2025年6月6日，我国已上市公募REITs二级市场价格整体呈现上行趋势：加权REITs指数收 于142.42，本周回报率为1.74%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：原油>可转债> 黄金>REITs>A股>美股>纯债。本周主力净流入总额为905万元，市场交投热情有所增长。 （张旭） 2025-06-07 您可点击今日推送内容的第3条查看 2025年5月美国新增就业高于市场预期，失业率也稳定在4.2%，显示美国就业市场相对稳健。其中，5月 底美国迎来阵亡将士纪念日， ...