Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair has shown increased short-term selling pressure, influenced by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and market expectations regarding a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Employment Data - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, contrasting with an increase of 47,000 jobs in October, which was revised from an initial estimate of 42,000 [3]. - This decline is the largest monthly drop since the beginning of 2023 and significantly underperformed market expectations of a 5,000 job increase, indicating potential signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting is nearly 89%, up from 63% a month ago [4]. - This shift in expectations reflects growing concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is impacting the value of the U.S. dollar [4]. Group 3: Japanese Central Bank Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are providing support for the yen [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that the central bank will consider the pros and cons of rate hikes in the next policy meeting, suggesting an increasing likelihood of adjustments to monetary policy in the near future [5]. Group 4: Market Influences on USD/JPY - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. economic data performance, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, Bank of Japan policy direction, and interest rate differentials between the two countries [5]. - Upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data may either alleviate short-term downward pressure on the dollar if it exceeds expectations or exacerbate it if it indicates further weakness in the labor market [5].

受此前联邦政府停摆影响，延后发布的9月非农就业报告显示，当月新增就业岗位超预期但失业率意外 攀升至3.8%。不过这些数据均属历史性指标，而本应本周公布的10月完整就业数据因政府停摆影响将 推迟发布。衡量美元兑六种主要货币的DXY美元指数当前持平于100.192点。 来源：环球市场播报 美元汇率维持震荡格局，市场对美联储是否会在12月再度降息的预期仍存分歧。最新美联储官员表态显 示，政策制定者对12月是否降息意见不一，而上周公布的美国经济数据也未能指明利率路径方向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, but structural issues remain, suggesting that the improvement may not be sustained into October [1][3]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data Overview - Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, exceeding the expected 50,000, with revisions showing July's data adjusted down from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to -4,000 [1]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and healthcare services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), accounting for about 90% of total job additions [1]. - Other sectors like manufacturing and professional services experienced job losses [1]. Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [2]. - Household survey data indicated an increase of 251,000 in employment, while labor supply grew by 472,000 [2]. Wage Growth and Market Expectations - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [2]. - The annualized rate of wage growth over six months decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, while year-on-year growth remained at 3.8% [2]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [2]. Future Employment Outlook - Despite the marginal improvement in September, the employment situation may not continue to improve into October, as initial jobless claims have stabilized but continued claims are rising [3]. - The ADP employment data for October suggests job additions remain below 50,000, and job vacancy data from Indeed continues to decline [3]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with probabilities dropping from nearly 100% to around 40% due to comments from Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about inflation [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for October will not be released due to government shutdown, making September's data the only reference for the Fed's December meeting [5]. - The overall direction for rate cuts in the coming year remains clear, with expectations for at least three more cuts based on current economic conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, although structural issues remain. The report shows an increase in non-farm employment that exceeded market expectations, but the growth is concentrated in a few sectors, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the labor market [3][8]. Employment Situation - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000, surpassing the expected 50,000, with revisions to previous months showing a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs [16][18]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [20][19]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and health services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), which together accounted for about 90% of total job additions [18][19]. Wage Growth and Labor Market Indicators - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year wage growth remained at 3.8% [27][29]. - The average weekly hours worked remained stable at 34.2 hours, indicating a low level of labor utilization [27]. Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [29]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be influenced by the lack of recent employment data, as the next non-farm payroll report will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting [14][15]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that the Fed may not cut rates in December, but further cuts are anticipated in early 2024, contingent on sustained improvements in employment data [15][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite delays in data collection due to government shutdowns, the labor market trends are expected to gradually normalize rather than collapse, which may alleviate investor concerns about a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in the month, with a balanced distribution of job growth, and the diffusion index significantly rose to 55.6, marking the first time it exceeded the breakeven point of 50 since March [1] - Overall, U.S. consumers remain cautious but have not shown signs of a consumption decline, suggesting positive news for the upcoming holiday shopping season [1] Group 2 - Approximately 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, with a year-over-year EPS growth of 13.4% and revenue growth of 8.4% [2] - European stock markets declined, with the Eurozone's November PMI preliminary data highlighting uneven economic momentum, as manufacturing fell into contraction while services remained in expansion [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets experienced significant declines, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) dropping 2.6%, marking the largest weekly decline since April, driven by weak performance in technology stocks [2]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices remain stable overall, with some stores experiencing slight declines. Notably, Chow Tai Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng maintain prices at 1305 CNY/gram, marking the highest price among gold stores [1] - The price differences between high and low quotes in gold stores continue to narrow, reported at 83 CNY/gram today [1] - Detailed gold prices from various brands show fluctuations, with Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang both dropping by 4 CNY/gram, while Zhou Liu Fu decreased by 7 CNY/gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have seen a significant drop, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry price falling by 17 CNY/gram to 616 CNY/gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling prices have decreased by 5.3 CNY/gram, with varying rates across different brands. The average recycling price is reported at 917 CNY/gram [2] - Specific recycling prices for brands include Cai Bai at 893 CNY/gram and Zhou Sheng Sheng at 882.30 CNY/gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - The spot gold price fluctuated, reaching a high of 4109.54 USD/ounce before closing at 4076.86 USD/ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.01% [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at 4034.23 USD/ounce, with a decline of 1.02% [4] - Recent U.S. employment data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years, impacting gold prices [4] - Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have suppressed market expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced increased volatility, reaching $4,100 during the day but later falling to $4,045 before closing at $4,076.7, a decrease of 0.15% [1] - The market anticipates no interest rate cuts in December, with the probability of a rate cut dropping to 27%, which negatively impacts precious metals [1] - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among members, with a lack of data guidance contributing to uncertainty [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October non-farm payroll report, incorporating the data into the November report set for release on December 16, after the Fed's final meeting of the year [1]

摩根士丹利表示放弃对美联储将在12月降息25个基点的预测，因美国最新就业报告显示经济具有韧性。 大摩称，美国就业人数出现急剧及广泛反弹表明，夏季经济放缓的程度可能被夸大。虽然失业率略有上 升，但就业人数的强劲增长显示经济趋于稳定。大摩目前预计美联储将在明年1月、4月及6月降息，将 利率区间降至3%至3.25%。 ...

A 'Now Hiring' sign sits outside the entrance to a Burlington department store on Nov. 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida.The U.S. economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September, according to a long-awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in the month, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision. The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was 50,000. The July total also was revised down to 72,000, a decrease of 7 ...

| Millio | > 國發期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。美国官方数据缺失阶段，ADP发布最新数据显示截至11月1日的四周内，美国企业平均 每周减少约2500个就业岗位。近期美联储多位官员发言偏鹰压制降息预期,市场继续权衡经济和货币政策前 景。贵金属高位震荡，耐心等待新驱动以及技术面的方向性指引。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 ★美联储 --- ①特朗普暗示美联储主席人选已定，抱怨解雇鲍威尔遵人阻拦。②巴尔金:同意鲍威尔的观 点,12月降息并非板上钉钉,通胀和就业均面临 ...