技术面从黄金一小时图来看昨日黄金亚盘冲高测压4150受阻回修，符合预期判断，晚间行情出现回调， 回撤4100附近也迎合技术需要，但是随后行情很快回弹是比较意外的，这可能会使得短线行情走居高震 荡路线，局限了下半周的调整的预期，同时也局限了短线上方再走高的动能。根据小时图结构，日内黄 金暂看居高震荡，下方继续关注4110-00一带测试，上方关注4150-55一带短压，暂时看此区间震荡。若 日内行情有下破区间动作，那么下方着重关注4080附近争夺，此位也是20日线强支撑位，若上破区间则 再看4180附近压力，此位也是前期下跌调整行情的破位口。 劳动力市场指标走弱。高盛估计，美国10月非农就业岗位减少约5万个，将为2020年以来最大降幅。就 业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少11250个工作岗位。 美联储内部政策分歧是短期主要压力源。克利夫兰联储主席强调通胀仍处高位，认为进一步降息为时过 早；而美联储理事米兰周二继续放鸽，公开表示"鉴于劳动力市场疲软和通胀率下降，12月份降息50个 基点可能是合适的"。 此外，美国参议院推进临时拨款法案缓解政府关门风险，最快将于周三进行最终表决，随后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility while waiting for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%, and with the restart of central bank Treasury bond trading and a loose monetary policy orientation, the top of interest rates and the bottom of Treasury bond futures are more solid [3]. - The buying power of gold and silver has increased, and their price centers are expected to continue to rise [3]. - Various commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity, such as buying on dips, holding long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a re - pricing adjustment after the release of the third - quarter reports, with narrow - range callbacks and rebounds in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bullish put - option spread can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The buying power of gold and silver has increased. Gold resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and it can be bought on dips below $4100 (936 yuan). Silver may rise to $52 (12000 yuan), and long - call options can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract is in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and an arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1170 - 1290, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1780, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and corresponding investment suggestions, such as holding long - positions for tin, and taking a wait - and - see or other strategies for others [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 58000 due to decreased demand and falling silicon wafer prices [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price is in a moderate - amplitude shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high [3]. Energy and Chemical - **PX, PTA, etc.**: Each chemical product has its own price range and investment strategies, such as taking a wait - and - see attitude, reducing long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Hogs, etc.**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions, such as holding a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage for hogs and paying attention to support or pressure levels for others [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper market has stopped falling and rebounded. The supply - demand tight balance provides support, and the improvement in US employment data boosts the macro - expectation preference, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses the upside space of copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day. The US government shutdown has a negative impact on the market. The US October ADP employment report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, better than expected. The smelting processing fee is negative and stable, indicating a tight copper ore resource. An accident in the Indonesian copper mine will affect global copper supply until next year. There are still five smelters with maintenance plans in November, and copper production is on a downward trend. Higher copper prices may increase scrap copper supply. The rising copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and the Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 25 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 5, 2025, the LME official price was 10,639.5 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 36.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 43,900 tons, an increase of 6,456 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 134,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 363,400 short tons, an increase of 2,005 short tons from the previous period [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low as of August [1] - The Federal Reserve is committed to supporting maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, below the market expectation of 3.1% [2] - The core CPI also rose by 3% year-over-year, matching the previous value but below market expectations [2] - The ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, the largest decline since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000 jobs [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve plans to complete its total securities holdings reduction by December 1, after which the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested in short-term Treasury bonds [3] - A majority of the Federal Open Market Committee members voted in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, while two members had differing opinions on the extent of the cut [3] Group 4 - The last Federal Reserve meeting of the year is scheduled for December 9-10 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various economic indicators and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a focus on upcoming U.S. labor market data that could impact gold's trajectory [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown resilience, with a recent increase to approximately $3788.86 per ounce, reflecting a 0.5% rise, despite a strong dollar supported by positive U.S. economic data [1]. - The market is closely monitoring key labor market indicators, including JOLTS job openings and the non-farm payroll report, which are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and, consequently, gold prices [2][3]. - The overall outlook for gold remains positive due to strong central bank demand and concerns over U.S. debt and persistent inflation, which are expected to provide a support base for gold prices [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical analysis indicates that gold has experienced a strong upward trend, with a six-week consecutive increase, although there are risks of a pullback as it approaches the $3800 psychological level [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on selling during price rebounds around $3785-$3788 and buying on dips near $3750-$3752, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6][5]. - The market dynamics show a mixed signal across different time frames, indicating a need for careful entry points and risk management in trading strategies [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown a strong rebound, breaking historical resistance levels and reaching new highs, with expectations for continued upward movement despite some short-term fluctuations [1][3][6]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $3579.93 per ounce, hitting a low of $3578.09 before rebounding to a weekly high of $3674.36, ultimately closing at $3642.15, marking a weekly increase of $54.64 or 1.47% from the previous week's close of $3589.51 [3][4]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $96.27, indicating significant volatility in the market [3]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was driven by weak U.S. labor data and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant downward revision of U.S. employment data [3][6]. - The market faced pressure from a strong U.S. stock market and negative expectations from the U.S. CPI data, which led to profit-taking and a subsequent price drop [3][4]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations that if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold prices could easily surpass $3700, potentially reaching $4000 [6][7]. - The market is anticipated to experience continued upward momentum due to ongoing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would further support gold prices [6][7]. - The geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with the U.S. government's tax and tariff policies, are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish phase, having broken through historical highs, and is expected to continue this trend over the next year, with potential targets of $4200 or higher [7][8]. - Short-term technical indicators suggest a potential for price corrections, but the overall trend remains positive, with key support levels to watch [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent shifts in the U.S. labor market, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic landscape [8][12][24]. Deep Dive Topic - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industrial restructuring and the signals from central authorities regarding adjustments in industrial structure, aiming to understand the pathways from the previous five-year plan and how the new plan will be implemented [8]. Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading." The employment market's weakness raises questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A recent surge in overseas risk-free interest rates has triggered a sell-off in global sovereign bonds, prompting discussions on the reasons and sustainability of this market behavior [12][24]. - The article critiques the misconception that the decline in exports is due to a "rush to export," asserting that the August trade data reflects broader economic conditions rather than a simple market reaction [17]. High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of August's CPI indicates that core inflation is no longer the primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening trend in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on commodity price increases suggests that while upstream price hikes have positively impacted PPI, low capacity utilization in downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on PPI [18].

Market Overview - On September 12, the domestic futures market saw mixed results, with the main contracts showing varied performance. Notably, silver rose over 2%, while the shipping index for Europe fell over 5%, and low-sulfur fuel oil dropped more than 3%. Additionally, crude oil, fuel, and asphalt all declined by over 2% [2]. Silver Market Analysis - Analysts from Everbright Futures attribute the recent rise in silver prices to the U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) which remained at 2.9%, aligning with expectations and showing a slight increase from the previous value of 2.7%. The core CPI also matched expectations at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [4]. - The market is reacting to the low inflation environment and disappointing employment data, which may lead to more frequent or larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 235,000 [4]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to approximately 87.5, indicating a potential rebound in silver prices as it aligns with expectations. However, there is a noted decline in market positions following silver's price surpassing 10,000, suggesting caution against chasing high prices [4].

Group 1 - The core inflation data for August showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% before seasonal adjustment, indicating that inflation pressures remain present [1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, reaching the highest level in nearly four years, which exceeded both the previous value of 236,000 and the expected value of 235,000, raising concerns about the labor market [1][3] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, following the release of the inflation and jobless claims data [1][3] Group 2 - Prices for fruits and vegetables increased by 1.6% month-on-month in August, while household food prices rose by 0.6%, marking the largest increase in three years, influenced by tariffs as the U.S. is now a net importer of food [2] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not have fully materialized yet, and there is a possibility of continued upward pressure on commodity inflation due to inventory depletion and price transmission [2] - The significant rise in jobless claims indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus towards employment, with some analysts suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September [3]

Core Inflation and CPI Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the overall CPI rose by 0.4%, marking the largest monthly increase this year [1][2][7] - Year-over-year, the core CPI grew by 3.1%, consistent with previous values and market forecasts, while the overall CPI increased by 2.9%, up from 2.7% in the prior period [2][7] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - Traders are betting on the Federal Reserve announcing its first rate cut of the year next week, with a majority expecting a 25 basis point reduction, although some speculate a more aggressive 50 basis point cut due to weak jobless claims data [1][9] - The probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rose from under 5% to around 10% following the CPI data release [1] - Market sentiment indicates expectations for a series of rate cuts starting in September, with projections for three consecutive cuts, similar to the pattern anticipated for 2024 [1][11] Economic Indicators and Employment Data - The report highlights rising prices in various sectors, including new and used cars, clothing, and household appliances, with significant increases in service costs such as airfare [5][6] - The housing cost, a major component of CPI, saw a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, reflecting rising rents and hotel prices [6] - Initial jobless claims surged to a near four-year high, reinforcing expectations of a softening labor market and the need for Federal Reserve intervention [8][10] Analyst Predictions and Future Outlook - Analysts from CIBC Capital Markets and Barclays have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with Barclays expecting three cuts of 25 basis points each [9][11][12] - Mizuho anticipates that the Federal Reserve will shift its focus from combating inflation to supporting economic growth, initiating a new rate cut cycle in September [13]