Group 1 - President Trump indicated that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin does not wish to be nominated to replace Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, stating that Mnuchin prefers to remain in his current position [1] - Trump is considering four candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, but he does not plan to make a quick decision [1] - The unexpected early resignation of Fed Governor Quarles has heightened market interest in who will fill the vacancy, as the successor is likely to become the next Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - Following the release of disappointing July non-farm payroll data, market expectations for interest rate cuts have surged, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [2] - The July non-farm payroll data showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below market expectations, and previous months' data were revised downwards [2] - Trump's dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner has raised concerns about the integrity of employment data, which is crucial for global investors [2] Group 3 - Trump reiterated claims of "manipulated" data despite assertions from former officials that the BLS Commissioner does not participate in data details and that data revisions are standard [3] - Hassett defended Trump's decision to fire the BLS Commissioner, suggesting that the data revision process needs clearer explanations and that the BLS should modernize its data collection methods [3] - Trump criticized the current data collection process as outdated and overly politicized [3]

Group 1 - The central bank of China raised the RMB to USD midpoint rate by 101 points to 7.1395, marking the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 10.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.1% [4] - In October, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged is 3.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 35.6% and a 50 basis point cut at 60.9% [4] Group 3 - The July U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, while the unemployment rate only slightly increased [5] - The impact of immigration policies since May is believed to be increasingly affecting the job market, leading to a notable drag on non-farm payroll numbers, although the unemployment rate remains relatively stable [5] - The July employment data may not be sufficient to alter Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish stance [5]

Group 1 - Former President Trump calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, citing mistakes in interest rate decisions [2] - Trump criticizes Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre for allegedly inflating employment data ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections and demands her immediate dismissal [2] - The U.S. Labor Secretary announced the appointment of William Wyatroski as the acting director of the Labor Statistics Bureau, replacing Erica McEntyre [2]

Group 1 - The July employment report in the U.S. was unexpectedly weak, raising concerns among Federal Reserve officials about the economic outlook [1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, while June's data was revised down from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [1] - Despite the disappointing employment data, the labor market is still considered "healthy" by some officials, with the unemployment rate remaining within a normal range over the past year [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector also showed signs of weakness, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falling from 49.0 in June to 48.0 in July, indicating continued contraction for the fifth consecutive month [1] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about predicting further rate cuts in 2025, emphasizing the need for businesses to adjust pricing strategies in the current complex economic environment [1] - There are notable divisions among policymakers regarding the economic situation, reflecting the complexity of the current period [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with new jobs anticipated to drop to 110,000 from 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - Analysts believe that despite signs of cooling in the labor market, this is not sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to immediately lower interest rates, especially given the inflationary pressures from new tariff policies [3] - The market has shifted expectations for a rate cut from September to October, with some analysts warning that the window for the Fed to implement easing policies is narrowing due to rising prices from tariffs [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis of gold indicates that the market is showing signs of weakening bullish momentum, with the 5-month moving average moving up to 3293, suggesting that short-term support is weakening [4] - The price of gold is currently in a wide trading range between 3452 and 3246, with a potential downward movement towards the 10-month moving average around 3050 as tariffs take effect and safe-haven demand decreases [4] - The focus for gold prices this week is on the mid-band level of 3275; a close below this level could open further downside potential, while a close above it would suggest continued wide fluctuations [4]

金十数据8月1日讯，三菱日联分析师Derek Halpenny表示，如果美国7月就业数据强劲，美元应该会进 一步走强，但任何上涨都可能是有限的。美国经济的好消息已经在很大程度上反映在美元价格上，7月 份美元兑一篮子货币上涨了3.19%，创2022年4月以来涨幅最大的一个月。美元7月份的强劲上涨确实表 明，利好消息得到了更好的消化，这将限制美元今天的走强空间。不过，如果非农就业人数增幅高于预 期，可能会消除9月份降息的可能性。 三菱日联：非农数据若强劲将推动美元再涨，但涨幅有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from ING suggests that a strong U.S. non-farm payroll data release could lead to further appreciation of the U.S. dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Employment Data Expectations - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 100,000 jobs in July according to a Wall Street Journal survey [1] - ING's analyst Francesco Pesole anticipates a higher increase of 115,000 jobs, while market rumors suggest an increase around 120,000 jobs [1] Currency Market Impact - The U.S. dollar reached a two-month high against a basket of currencies overnight [1] - The upcoming employment data is viewed as a significant opportunity for the dollar to strengthen further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].

Market Overview - Strong U.S. employment data has alleviated market concerns regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a high of 97.42 before closing at 97.08, up 0.32% [1][2] - The precious metals market showed mixed results, with spot gold experiencing a substantial decline, dropping to a low of $3311.65, a decrease of over $50 from its daily high, ultimately closing down 0.94% at $3325.50 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver, while also retreating, saw a strong rebound, closing up 0.78% at $36.82 per ounce [1][2] Employment Data - The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report indicated an increase of 147,000 jobs in the U.S., surpassing the June expectation of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell from 237,000 to 233,000, reflecting resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] - The ADP employment change for June marked the first decline in over two years, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 95,000 jobs [3] Manufacturing and Job Vacancies - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved from 48.5 in May to 49.0 in June, exceeding expert expectations of 48.8, indicating a slight recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [4] - Job openings in the U.S. rose from 4.395 million in April to 4.76 million in May, surpassing the market expectation of 7.3 million [4]

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[2] - Labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected and previous 62.4%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3326.1 per ounce[2] Fed Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0% after the non-farm data release[2] - The probability of a September rate cut decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[2] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[2] ADP vs Non-Farm Data - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[3] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and the impact of tariffs[3] - Non-farm data is considered more reliable as it covers approximately 80% of employment positions compared to ADP's 17%[3] Economic Outlook - The strong non-farm data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting previous assessments[4] - The report indicates that if tariffs do not escalate further, a soft landing for the economy remains likely[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance given manageable economic downturn risks and rising inflation concerns[4]