今日操作建议与关键点位 在当前高位震荡格局下，操作上需要更加谨慎。日内关键阻力位在3702-3705美元区域，如果突破则可能进一步上攻3715-3725美元阻力区。下方支撑首先关 注3680美元，其次是3670-3674美元区域。操作上建议采用回落做多为主思路，可在3680-3690美元区域轻仓做多，止损设在3670下方，目标看向3700-3710美 元。对于激进型交易者，如果金价反弹至3705-3715美元区域且出现受阻信号，可以轻仓尝试短空，止损设在3720上方，目标回看3680-3690美元。需要注意 的是，在美联储决议前，市场波动可能加剧，务必控制仓位大小，严格设置止损，避免意外波动造成重大损失。 明日走势预测与后市展望 明日黄金走势几乎完全取决于美联储利率决议的结果。如果美联储如预期降息25个基点并释放鸽派信号，金价很可能突破3725美元阻力，向3740-3750美元 区域发起冲击。如果意外降息50个基点，金价可能出现爆炸性上涨，直接挑战3750-3800美元区域。然而需要警惕"买预期卖事实"的风险，如果降息落地但 政策指引不及市场预期的鸽派，或者点阵图显示未来降息路径更为平缓，金价可能出现短线获利 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented excitement, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,700 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $3,702.93 before closing at $3,689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a significant drop in the dollar index [2] - The market is reacting to multiple factors including geopolitical risks, a surge in central bank gold purchases, and a weakening dollar, which collectively contributed to the rise in gold prices [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on gold prices, with a consensus that a 25 basis point cut is likely, but the market may react negatively post-announcement due to already priced-in expectations [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend in the gold market, with daily indicators showing a consolidation phase, while MACD suggests a continued upward momentum [3] - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at $3,680-$3,685, with potential upward targets around $3,710 and even $3,750, maintaining a bullish outlook for the year [3] - In the domestic market, it is advised to exit long positions in Shanghai gold and accumulation gold at specified levels, suggesting a cautious approach and recommending to avoid holding positions until after the Federal Reserve's decision [3]

美股周二收盘，三大股指在美联储利率决议前夕走势平缓，道指收跌0.27%，标普500指数跌0.13%，纳 指跌0.07%。甲骨文高开低走，收涨1.4%，特斯拉(TSLA.O)涨2.8%，英伟达(NVDA.O)跌1.6%。纳斯达 克中国金龙指数收涨1.7%，阿里巴巴(BABA.N)涨2.6%，蔚来汽车(NIO.N)涨8%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has reached a basic framework consensus with the U.S. to address the TikTok issue, reduce investment barriers, and promote economic and trade cooperation [1] - A U.S. appeals court has denied President Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time a president has attempted such an action since the Fed's establishment in 1913 [2] - The New York Fed's manufacturing index for September recorded -8.7, indicating a contraction in industry activity, which is significantly below expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming meeting, with market focus on future interest rate paths and economic expectations [2] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a historical high of $3,674 per ounce, driven by poor manufacturing data and increased rate cut expectations [4][6] - The domestic gold futures in China have also hit a record high, with the main contract peaking above 8,420 yuan per kilogram [2]

特朗普再度敦促美上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克。 库克（资料图） 美国总统特朗普14日向美国上诉法院提出最后请求，要求允许其解雇美联储理事库克，理由是她涉嫌房 贷欺诈。特朗普希望在美联储利率决议前完成此举，并再次强调库克至今未能对相关指控作出有力反 驳。 本月9日，美国地方法院曾裁定暂缓特朗普对库克的解职决定，直至其起诉案审理完毕。特朗普团队随 后要求华盛顿上诉法院暂停该禁令。 来源 | 央视新闻客户端 ...

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

Group 1 - The market experienced little volatility last week, with gold and silver maintaining a bullish trend despite fluctuations, with gold ranging between 3613 and 3675, and silver above 40.5, peaking at 42.5 [2] - This week, gold and silver are expected to continue their bullish trend, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could lead to significant market movements [2][4] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at 3600 and 3500, and a potential for significant changes if these levels are breached [4][6] Group 2 - Domestic gold is also in a high-level consolidation phase, with the Shanghai gold contract (2512) showing support at 830 and the Rongtong gold at 820, both expected to rebound [5][6] - Silver is anticipated to maintain a bullish trend this week, with support at 41.5 and potential for significant downward movement following the Federal Reserve's decision [6][7] - The Shanghai silver contract (2512) is expected to remain bullish, with support at 9900, and potential for a significant drop if it falls below 9700 [7] Group 3 - Crude oil is expected to maintain a bullish trend above the support level of 61.5, with a focus on resistance levels at 64 and 66 [7] - Domestic fuel oil is also showing potential for upward movement, with a focus on the 2850 resistance level, which if broken could lead to a target of 3000 [7]

2025.09. 15 本文字数：302，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，记者当地时间9月14日获悉，美国总统特朗普当天向美国上诉法院提出最后请求，要求 允许其解雇美联储理事库克，理由是她涉嫌房贷欺诈。特朗普希望在下周美联储利率决议前完成此 举，并再次强调库克至今未能对相关指控作出有力反驳。 本月9日，美国地方法院曾裁定暂缓特朗普对库克的解职决定，直至其起诉案审理完毕。特朗普团队 随后要求华盛顿上诉法院暂停该禁令。 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 纳指续创历史新高，甲骨文两日跌超11% 4 : 1967 12 ie - 8 1 - 20 . 30 / 100 r , 20 - 1911 1111 . 11 ig " ...

当地时间9月14日获悉，美国总统特朗普当天向美国上诉法院提出最后请求，要求允许其解雇美联储理 事库克，理由是她涉嫌房贷欺诈。特朗普希望在下周美联储利率决议前完成此举，并再次强调库克至今 未能对相关指控作出有力反驳。（央视新闻） 来源：滚动播报 ...