Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the gold price is under pressure due to the US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July. However, due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and wait and see for silver [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, London gold spot dropped 0.5% to $3340.32/ounce, London silver spot dropped 1.9% to $38.33/ounce, COMEX gold dropped 0.6% to $3340.10/ounce, COMEX silver dropped 2.2% to $38.45/ounce, AU2508 dropped 0.3% to 772 yuan/gram, AG2508 dropped 1.9% to 9190 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) dropped 0.3% to 771.11 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) dropped 1.9% to 9185 yuan/kg [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed by - 41.8%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed by 66.7%, the gold cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by 84.6%, the silver cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by - 1.2%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, the CONEX gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, AU2512 - 2508 changed by 7.8%, and AG2512 - 2508 changed by - 4.3% [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 957.09 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased 0.15% to 15230.42858 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions increased 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 30258 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 1.77% to 1208269 kg. On July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.39% to 37762394 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.51% to 500320749 ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate increased 0.07% to 7.15, the US dollar index increased 0.19% to 97.67, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.91%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.68% to 4.40%, the VIX decreased 2.99% to 14.93, the S&P 500 increased 0.40% to 6388.64, and MANEX decreased 1.65% to 65.07 [3]. 3.6 Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing the precious metal prices. But due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term [3]. - **Long - term**: There is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market's risk - aversion demand has declined due to progress in tariff negotiations and the ECB's reduction of the September interest - rate cut expectation, as well as the Fed's likely on - hold stance in July, which suppresses precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and the Fed's possible rate cut in August, precious metal prices may not continue to fall. Silver may run bearishly in the short - term due to the general decline in commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates within the year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Spread Information - **Price**: On July 25, 2025, London gold spot was 3358.72, London silver spot was 774.70, AU (T + D) was 3360.30, COMEX silver was 9368.00, AG (T + D) was 773.17, COMEX gold was 9365.00, AU2508 was 39.30, and AG2508 was 39.08. Compared with July 24, the price changes were - 0.2%, - 0.2%, 0.1%, - 0.5%, - 0.1%, - 0.6%, 0.1%, - 0.2% respectively [3]. - **Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 1.53, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 1.95, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 82.70, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3. Compared with July 24, the spread changes were - 1.3%, - 1.7%, - 0.3%, - 2.1% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Information - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 15230.42858, 253038, 957.09 respectively; COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 311949, 58911, 85678 respectively. The gold ETF - SPDR position was 25058, and the silver ETF - SLV position was 60620 [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, 2025, SHFE silver inventory was 500320749 kg, SHFE gold inventory was 37762394 kg, COMEX silver inventory was 30258.00 ounces, and COMEX gold inventory was 1187254.00 ounces. Compared with July 24, the inventory changes were 0.39%, 0.51%, - 0.12%, 3.07% respectively [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The US July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 and the first contraction since then, far below the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 62.9. The new orders index preliminary value dropped to 49.7, the lowest since December last year. However, the US July Markit services PMI preliminary value was 5.2, far exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the employment sub - index preliminary value rose to 52.6 [3]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary month - on - month value was + 9.3%, higher than the expected - 0.7% [3]. 3.4 Other News - Trump said he thought Powell would cut interest rates, had a good talk with Powell about interest rates, and that the economic situation was good [3]. - On July 26, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia entered the third day, causing hundreds of casualties [3]. - Trump said he would issue nearly 200 tariff letters with tariff rates of 10% or 15%, was unclear about the prospects of a US - EU agreement, and might impose tariffs on Canada directly. He also said more fine - tuning would be done on the US - UK trade agreement, but there was little room for negotiation on steel and aluminum [3]. 3.5 Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.88% to 777.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.31% to 9392 yuan/kg [3].

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易谈判取得进展，价格承压回调 2025/7/28 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 美国与多国贸易谈判结果落地，加征关税幅度基本低于 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 市场预期。市场 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the report's investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US-Japan tariff agreement and progress in EU-US trade negotiations, overseas risk aversion declined. In the domestic market, the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology eliminating old production capacity boosted market sentiment, which needed to be repaired later in the week. In terms of fundamentals, most recent capacity changes in the supply side were replacements, with a small amount of capacity resuming production in Guizhou, and the operating capacity increasing slightly by 10,000 tons compared to last week. Downstream, the aluminum processing weekly operating rate continued to decline slightly due to the triple pressures of weak demand in the off - season, high aluminum prices, and tariff uncertainties. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 12,000 tons to 510,000 tons, while the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10,500 tons to 145,500 tons [2]. - This week, there is high uncertainty in the overseas Fed's interest - rate decision and the negotiation process of the expiration of US reciprocal tariffs, with high macro - elasticity. Fundamentally, the operating capacity in the supply side increased slightly. In the consumption side, due to the off - season and high aluminum prices, downstream purchasing slowed down. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, but the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, and the warehouse receipt inventory returned to around 60,000 tons after a short - term increase. Overall, the inventory increase was not very smooth. It is expected that the aluminum price will have a certain repair after last week's sentiment adjustment, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased from 2,638 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2,631 yuan/ton on July 25th, a drop of 7 yuan/ton. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3 increased from 20,375 dollars/ton to 20,660 dollars/ton, a rise of 285 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.9, an increase of 0.1. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.78 dollars/ton to 1.07 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.9 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased from 430,700 tons to 450,825 tons, an increase of 20,125 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 66,548 tons to 54,675 tons, a decrease of 11,873 tons. The spot average price increased from 20,554 yuan/ton to 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The South - storage spot average price increased from 20,538 yuan/ton to 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 16 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 492,000 tons to 510,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 16,669.43 yuan/ton to 16,760.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 91.5 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,884.57 yuan/ton to 4,077.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton [3]. 行情评述 - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton compared to last week. The weekly average price of the South - storage spot was 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton compared to last week [4]. 宏观方面 - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase the import of US rice under the current "minimum access system". The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The South Korea - US "2 + 2" economic and trade consultation scheduled for the 25th was cancelled due to the US side. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, both reaching the highest since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. EU member states voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, pressing the "pause button" on interest - rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service industry PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, both higher than market expectations. The PMI data of Germany and France also rebounded [5][6]. 消费端 - According to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% compared to the previous period. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season. The operating rate of the recycled alloy sector continued to decline, but due to the decline in the aluminum price center, there were differences among different sectors. The weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables increased slightly, driving the marginal improvement of the industry's operating rate. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of the downstream aluminum processing industry will decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% next week [6]. 库存方面 - According to SMM, on July 17th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 行情展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes that after last week's sentiment adjustment, the aluminum price is expected to have a certain repair, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [7]. 行业要闻 - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, the domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 1,249,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of domestic primary aluminum was about 1,163,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. According to SMM, a technical renovation project of an aluminum plant in Guangxi has started to gradually start up electrolytic cells. The first batch of 50,000 tons/year, a total of 84 electrolytic cells, is expected to be fully put into operation next month, and the remaining renovation capacity will be gradually started up within this year [8]. 相关图表 - The report includes various charts such as the price trend of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai Aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][11][15].

美联储内斗升级，下周美联储利率决议预期再度生变？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点击进入直 播间 相关链接 ...

当地时间7月9日， 美股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘， 纳斯达克指数上涨0.94%， 创历史新高； 道 琼斯工业指数上涨0.49%，标普500指数上涨0.61%。 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普9日上午致信菲律宾、文莱、摩尔多瓦、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克和利比亚6 个国家的领导人，通知他们将对这些国家输美商品征收新关税，新税率 将从8月1日起生效。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 美联储会议纪要公布 内部分歧明显 美股大型科技股 多数上涨 ，美国科技七巨头指数上涨1.25%。 据央视新闻报道， 美联储公布的6月会议纪要 显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活 动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。 与会者 一致认为，经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 英伟达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors, including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal demand variations [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The expiration of U.S. Treasury bonds in June has raised market concerns - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid inflation and tariff issues reflects a hawkish stance, limiting the likelihood of rate cuts [1] Market Conditions - The textile industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with the operating rate in Foshan's Zhangcha weaving mills at only 1-2 layers - Concerns are growing about a potential decrease in operating rates for textile enterprises in July and August [1] Geopolitical Influences - The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, along with U.S. military aid to Israel, has garnered global attention and may impact market sentiment [1] CFTC Holdings - The CFTC's net short position has increased by 4,400 contracts to 36,700 contracts, contributing to a weakening of foreign cotton prices [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic commercial inventory is expected to be between 1.55 to 1.8 million tons by the end of August, which, while tight, is less severe than previously anticipated, supporting the September contract [1] - Global production is projected to increase, with Xinjiang's output estimated at 7.2 to 7.5 million tons and Brazil's at 3.95 million tons, while U.S. cotton production remains uncertain due to drought conditions [1] Consumption Outlook - The consumption outlook is highly variable, dependent on U.S. tariff policies and the timing of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The market sentiment is cautious, with significant uncertainty regarding cotton usage from July to September [1] Price Projections - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,276 to 13,570, with a focus on potential price declines in July and August, while the downside is seen as limited between 12,500 to 13,000 [1] - Long-term, increased supply is anticipated, but uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions and consumer behavior remain [1]

金十数据6月26日讯，据外媒分析报道，如果特朗普在9月的美联储利率决议之前宣布鲍威尔的接班人， 那么美元的形势可能会由"坏"变成"更坏"。因为一旦如此，意味着鲍威尔任期内剩下的六次会议都将 在"继任者阴影"下进行（其任期将于明年5月结束），这可能削弱鲍威尔的权威，进而打击美元。如果 鲍威尔领导的美联储在下月连续第五次按兵不动，那么这种情况发生的几率就会增加，因为那将激怒特 朗普。当前市场预计美联储在7月30日降息的概率为25%。 外媒：若美联储7月不降息，特朗普将给鲍威尔安排个"影子" ...

Group 1 - The week has been particularly challenging for gold bulls, not due to significant price drops, but because geopolitical tensions have not supported gold prices, leading to a sharp decline [3][5] - Gold experienced a significant drop, with a maximum decline of $112, reaching a low of $3340 during the week, and closing with a small gain on Friday [3][8] - The upcoming week is critical for gold, with the $3340 level being a key support point; if it breaks down, further declines to the $3300-$3295 range may occur [8][10] Group 2 - The situation in Iran is escalating, with the U.S. conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which could lead to significant impacts on oil and gold prices if the situation deteriorates further [5][6] - The United Nations Security Council is convening an emergency meeting regarding the U.S. strikes on Iran, indicating the seriousness of the geopolitical situation [6] - Iran has threatened retaliation, which could further destabilize the region and impact global markets [5][6] Group 3 - The oil market has seen significant volatility, with recent weeks experiencing major price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran [14] - If oil prices open high, traders may consider short positions initially, but the overall sentiment remains bullish as geopolitical factors could drive prices higher [14] - The dollar index has shown signs of stabilization, with a potential target range of 101.5 to 102, indicating a possible rebound in the currency [17]

XAU/USD（黄金） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 黄金周三维持窄幅震荡，凌晨受美联储利率决议及鲍威尔讲话影响，金价短暂下探3363后反弹，日线收带上下影线阴线。美联储虽维持年内降息50基点预 期，但放缓未来降息节奏，叠加中东局势升温，多空因素交织限制波动。当前1小时级别宽幅震荡进入第3日，方向突破在即，日内建议保持谨慎。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：3423、3400 支撑位：3363、3345 策略：日内观望为主，静待区间突破后顺势操作；激进者可结合M5模型于趋势线附近短线博弈。 三色线交易策略 H1三色线维持绿色，前期3403空单已盈利100点离场。今日以M5模型为主，关注H1趋势线阻力有效性。 EUR/USD（欧美） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 欧美周三震荡收跌，日线录得十字阴线。欧元区经济数据未超预期，美联储按兵不动但维持鹰派立场，美元受避险需求支撑。欧美日内波幅70点，尾盘收于 1.146附近，短期趋势仍偏弱。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：1.152、1.156 支撑位：1.139、1.134 策略：早盘已下破，建议反弹至1.149-1.150做空，止损1.155，目标30-5 ...