昨天黄金走势符合文章和视频分析预期，基本反弹遇阻4220区域再次回落，日线十字阴线；接下来，黄金会大跌吗？这要看能否破位关键支撑以及美联储利 率决议指引！ 今日的话短期多空分界4200-05区域，以下偏弱运行；要开启空头必须下破4170-65区域，否则随时还要拉高。下破4170-65则必定测试3886以来趋势支撑，这 里才是多空双方最关键的地方。 上方4200-05上去，短线走强，然后关注昨天高点4220区域压制再跌；意外上破，则短线反弹扩大化，但不看好走太远，冲高只要空头坚守4260-65区域依然 空头主动！操作上，带杠杆产品高空为主，关键位置做反弹。积存金等非杠杆产品继续等待；实在担心错过买入点，部分买入并做好补仓准备；这种产品几 个月波动不如股票一天涨跌幅度大，并且手续费高，不带杠杆的产品短线实在没啥好参与的，频繁折腾也不是明智之举！ 白银，中长期看涨不变，短期继续看冲高下跌为主。短期继续看调整，每次靠近新高或刷新新高都是回落的机会，下方重点支撑54-55以及近期视频和文章 反复强调的趋势支撑！白银ETF连续减仓，是短期走势的信号！ 本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价 ...

从1小时图来看，黄金整体仍处于震荡下行趋势，反弹力度持续偏弱。日内价格呈现横盘整理，随后出现看跌吞没形态，大阴线覆盖前期阳线，表明下跌 动能增强，预计震荡后将进一步下探。当前下方4180一线支撑已面临击穿风险，后续或继续向下测试4160-4165区域。在美联储利率决议前，市场大概率 维持震荡格局，操作上建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅。上方短期阻力关注4200-4205区间，若美盘反弹至此承压，可继续布局空单。 黄金回调4160-4163附近分批做多，止损10个点，目标4175-4185附近，破位看4195一线 黄金反弹4198-4200附近分批做空，止损10个点，目标4180-4170附近，破位看4160一线； 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建 议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，实时思路现价给出。 ...

来源：滚动播报 原油期货价格回落，此前已连续三个交易日上涨。市场目前仍在充裕供应与地缘政治风险溢价之间寻求 平衡。Ritterbusch and Associates在报告中指出："全球石油市场的看跌基本面正缓慢转化为更清晰的可 见性，尤其是在美国。本周油价将受到多重因素扰动——不仅包括俄乌冲突和委内瑞拉局势等地缘政治 头条新闻引发的风险情绪波动，还将受美联储利率决议影响，后者将对需求前景产生重要影响。"尽管 地缘紧张局势持续提供支撑，但疲软的基本面和即将公布的美联储政策决定令市场承压，投资者谨慎评 估未来能源需求前景。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, influenced by recent U.S. economic data and upcoming inflation reports, with prices currently around $4205 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are under pressure due to a three-year low in U.S. initial jobless claims, but are supported by interest rate cut expectations and buying interest [1]. - The market is awaiting key U.S. inflation data to assess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, which is expected to influence gold prices [1]. - Current trading conditions indicate a potential for gold prices to rise to $4260 or higher if inflation pressures ease, while a contrary outcome may lead to further price adjustments [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily gold price remains supported by moving averages, indicating a strong market position without signs of weakness [2]. - The Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe show a narrowing range, with upper and lower limits at $4230 and $4180, respectively, while key levels to watch are $4265 above and $4150 below [2]. - The overall trend remains bullish as long as prices stay above $4150, with a potential new upward movement if prices can stabilize above $4250 [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for release this Friday, has been postponed to December 16 due to the government shutdown, complicating predictions for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 11 [3] - The upcoming ADP data for November, set to be released on Wednesday, is seen as a critical indicator in the absence of the non-farm payroll data, with a previous value of 42,000 and a pessimistic forecast of 20,000 [4] - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI year-on-year for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.2%, while the core CPI is projected to increase to 2.5%, indicating a stable inflation outlook above 2% [6][8] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. faces significant challenges, including the impact of immigration policies and AI replacing basic jobs, which could hinder recovery in the short term [4] - The stability of Eurozone inflation data supports expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates, with the next decision on December 18 anticipated to be unchanged [8] - The potential for a higher likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could lead to an appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, which may lead to a stalemate in the upcoming meeting on December 9-10, particularly after recent hawkish comments amid persistent inflation above target levels [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have shifted towards a more hawkish stance, reducing hopes for further easing of policies in December [1]. - The September employment report showed mixed results, with job growth exceeding expectations but an increase in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, contributing to the Fed's internal divisions [1]. - New York Fed President Williams suggested there is still room for further rate cuts to bring the benchmark rate closer to neutral, which increased the likelihood of a December rate cut from under 40% to over 70% [1][2]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics and Potential Outcomes - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 voting members, requiring a simple majority (at least 7 votes) to pass decisions, but current sentiments indicate only four votes in favor of a rate cut and six against [2]. - If a tie occurs, it is unclear how the Fed would proceed, as there are no established rules for handling a tie, which could lead to confusion regarding the decision-making process [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that the Fed has never faced a voting tie, and any potential tie could lead to maintaining the current interest rate until a subsequent meeting [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increased dissent among its policymakers, with a notable shift from a consensus-driven approach to individual voting tendencies as the December meeting approaches [1][3][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - There is a growing division among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with 5 members indicating a preference to maintain interest rates unchanged next month, creating a near-even split [3][10] - The recent comments from New York Fed President Williams have raised expectations for a rate cut in December, with futures indicating a probability of over 60% for a cut, up from below 30% [3][12] - The increase in dissenting votes this year marks a significant change, as no policy decision has received unanimous support since June [7][11] Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [4][12] - The uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy decisions is a common characteristic, making it difficult for policymakers to gauge the current state of the economy [12] Group 3: Historical Perspective on Dissent - The current level of dissenting votes is higher than in recent history, with some members expressing that this is a healthy development, reminiscent of periods in the 1980s and 1990s when dissent was more common [11][9] - The shift towards a more cautious stance among previously dovish members indicates a potential change in the overall approach to monetary policy [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite delays in data collection due to government shutdowns, the labor market trends are expected to gradually normalize rather than collapse, which may alleviate investor concerns about a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in the month, with a balanced distribution of job growth, and the diffusion index significantly rose to 55.6, marking the first time it exceeded the breakeven point of 50 since March [1] - Overall, U.S. consumers remain cautious but have not shown signs of a consumption decline, suggesting positive news for the upcoming holiday shopping season [1] Group 2 - Approximately 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, with a year-over-year EPS growth of 13.4% and revenue growth of 8.4% [2] - European stock markets declined, with the Eurozone's November PMI preliminary data highlighting uneven economic momentum, as manufacturing fell into contraction while services remained in expansion [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets experienced significant declines, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) dropping 2.6%, marking the largest weekly decline since April, driven by weak performance in technology stocks [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate with supply contraction and weak demand in the short - term, but with long - term positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract declined with a weekly change of - 1.43% and an amplitude of 1.59%, closing at 85,660 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's October meeting minutes showed significant differences among officials regarding the October rate cut [4] - **Domestic Situation**: China's new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, but there is a possibility of a decline in the future [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate spot TC index is at a low negative level, indicating tight raw material supply. Due to tight copper ore supply and concentrated smelter maintenance, refined copper supply may contract. Downstream开工率 only rebounded slightly after falling in October, and the high copper price made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in only a small increase in spot market trading activity and a slight reduction in social inventory [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of November 21, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 155 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 85,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 190,218 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,075 lots [11] - **Spot Prices**: As of November 21, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 85,815 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton [13] - **Cross - Period Quotes**: As of November 21, 2025, the cross - period quote of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 50.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 23,557 lots, an increase of 148 lots from last week [22] 3. Option Market - As of November 21, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was close to the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option open interest was 0.781, a decrease of 0.0099 from last week [27] 4. Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area weakened, and the crude copper processing fee remained flat. As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 640 yuan/ton, and the southern crude copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, a decrease of 135,600 tons from September, a decline of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. As of the latest data, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 2,687.82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 765.37 yuan/ton [36] - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from September, a decline of 4.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.89%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 323,144.718 tons, a decrease of 50,930.86 tons from September, a decline of 13.62%, and a year - on - year decline of 16.32%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was 567.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 771.88 yuan/ton [51] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory increased by 21,700 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 12,239 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 11,026 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 192,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Product Production and Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a decrease of 228,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.22%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.2%, and a year - on - year decline of 13.73% [60] - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.63% and 9.94% respectively. As of October 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 2%, - 13.5%, - 6%, - 2.7%, and 1.7% respectively [64] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of October 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 7. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is showing weakness this week, with market focus on Federal Reserve policies and upcoming economic data before the December meeting [1][2] Group 1: Economic Data and Market Impact - The end of the US government shutdown is expected to bring back market volatility, with the ICE dollar index showing heightened sensitivity to global interest rates [2][4] - Upcoming inflation and employment reports are crucial for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, potentially breaking recent volatility ranges [1][2] - The release of delayed economic data, including non-farm payrolls and inflation reports, may significantly influence market perceptions and Federal Reserve decisions [2][4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the upcoming economic data will likely be poor, leading to increased market volatility and potential further declines in the dollar [5][6] - The volatility index for US Treasury prices indicates potential for significant market movements in response to the forthcoming economic data [6] - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for a pause to control inflation, which could affect the dollar's performance [5][7] Group 3: Long-term Outlook on the Dollar - Long-term forecasts suggest that the dollar may continue to face weakness, attributed to concerns over rising deficits and the potential for a temporary recovery [7]