Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are experiencing rare divisions regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, with two dissenting votes during the July meeting signaling potential market concerns [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the key interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, despite dissent from two members who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - The upcoming release of the July meeting minutes is expected to reveal the depth of internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding dovish and hawkish stances on inflation [1] Group 2 - Continuous pressure from the Trump administration for interest rate cuts is raising concerns about the independence of economic policy decisions, as political influences may be affecting the Federal Reserve's actions [2] - The Federal Reserve officials have historically avoided political commentary, but the ongoing competition for the Fed Chair position complicates their ability to maintain this neutrality [2] - Investors are likely to scrutinize the meeting minutes for indications of political interference that could undermine the Federal Reserve's policy independence [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump is expected to announce a new Federal Reserve Chair soon, with a narrowed selection of candidates, indicating dissatisfaction with current Chair Powell's interest rate policies [2][3][4] - Trump has mentioned that the candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include two individuals named Kevin, specifically Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, along with two others, one of whom is speculated to be current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [3][4] - Both Kevin candidates advocate for lower interest rates, which aligns with Trump's stance, and market predictions have shifted to reflect a 35% chance for each of them to be appointed as the next Fed Chair [4][5] Group 2 - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler provides Trump an opportunity to appoint a pro-rate cut official without waiting for her term to end, potentially influencing the timeline for selecting the next Fed Chair [6][7] - The unexpected resignation of Kugler may lead to a restructuring of the Fed leadership sooner than anticipated, which could impact the independence of the Fed and its policy decisions [7][8] - Despite the recent disappointing employment data, which has led to increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, Fed officials maintain that the labor market remains healthy, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Disagreements - The decision reflects a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, with 9 out of 12 voting members supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while two members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - This marks the first time in over 30 years that two Federal Reserve governors have publicly expressed differing opinions on interest rate decisions, indicating deep-seated divisions in monetary policy [1] - Chairman Powell acknowledged these divisions but emphasized that the majority believes inflation remains slightly above the 2% target and that the current policy rate is in a "moderately restrictive" range [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Political Pressures - Financial markets experienced notable volatility following Powell's remarks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 171.71 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 31.38 points [2] - Political pressure is increasing, with President Trump publicly calling for immediate rate cuts and suggesting that a reduction to 1% could save the government significant debt costs [2] - Powell reiterated the importance of basing monetary policy adjustments on solid economic and inflation data, underscoring the need to respect the independence of the central bank [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook and Economic Indicators - Powell's statements indicate a hawkish stance, with no signals for a rate cut in September, emphasizing that the current rate is only "moderately restrictive" and that the labor market remains strong [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 68% to 45%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate increased to 55% following Powell's comments [3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation remains a critical factor for future policy decisions, with Powell noting that the transmission of tariff costs is still in its early stages and that the overall impact is yet to be fully assessed [4] Group 4: Tariff Implications and Trade Negotiations - Market participants warn that U.S. importers' buffer inventories are depleting, which may enhance the motivation to pass on tariff costs [4] - Powell highlighted that while many U.S. companies intend to pass on cost pressures to consumers, competitive market conditions limit their actual ability to do so [4] - Recent signs of easing tensions in U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Europe trade negotiations could potentially reduce inflationary pressures, providing the Federal Reserve with more flexibility in policy responses [4] Group 5: Key Economic Reports Ahead - The upcoming employment reports and inflation data before the September meeting are expected to be crucial in breaking the current policy deadlock [5] - The Federal Reserve's ability to balance its policy independence with the need to respond to current economic realities will be a significant test of its policy acumen [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change in rates this year [1][4] - Market expectations for a rate cut have been pushed back, with predictions now suggesting a possible cut in December rather than September, primarily due to rising inflation concerns [1][8] - The FOMC's statement indicated a moderation in economic activity growth, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertainties in the economic outlook [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results following the FOMC announcement, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly in light of President Trump's pressure for rate cuts [5][6] - The potential for a new Fed chair aligned with Trump's views could influence future monetary policy, although the structure of the FOMC limits the impact of any single appointment [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change in rates this year [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have been pushed back, with analysts predicting a cautious approach from the Fed due to rising inflation, suggesting a potential cut in December rather than September [2][10] - The FOMC's statement indicated a moderation in economic activity growth, acknowledging challenges in achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market reacted mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% following the Fed's announcement [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the press conference were perceived as hawkish, leading to a sell-off in short-term government bonds [2][6] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly in light of President Trump's influence and upcoming vacancies on the FOMC [7][9] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September, with a focus on upcoming inflation and employment data to guide future decisions [6][10] - The Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence is seen as crucial for price stability and sustainable growth, despite political pressures [9][10] - The potential for a new Fed chair aligned with Trump's views could impact future monetary policy decisions, but the structure of the FOMC limits any single individual's influence [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international gold price is expected to fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term [1][2] - Recent gold market activity shows London gold fluctuating between $3,250 and $3,450 per ounce, influenced by U.S. tariff agreements with multiple countries [1] - The U.S. economy remains resilient with inflation and retail sales data exceeding expectations, leading to market speculation that interest rates may not decrease in July [1] Group 2 - High gold prices are suppressing physical gold consumption and investment enthusiasm, with U.S. Mint gold coin sales dropping from 64,000 ounces in January to only 7,500 ounces in May [2] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves by 7 tons in June, which supports long-term gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in gold ETF inflows, global ETF holdings remain significantly below historical highs, indicating potential for renewed investment if gold prices continue to rise [2]

据彭博社 7 月 21 日报道，美国前总统特朗普近期接连遭遇三重关键冲击。这些冲击不仅搅动着美国政 坛，也引发了外界对其政治生涯走向的广泛关注。 特朗普（资料图） 美联储主席鲍威尔 7 月 20 日在国会听证会上明确表示，将坚持当前利率政策框架。而就在三天前，特 朗普公开呼吁 "更换美联储领导层"，认为现行货币政策阻碍经济增长。特朗普一直对美联储的货币政 策有所不满，多次在公开场合表达自己的看法，希望美联储能采取更符合他预期的政策来推动经济发 展。美联储随后发布的声明强调 "决策独立性不受政治干预"。美联储作为美国的中央银行，其决策独 立性是维持金融稳定和经济平稳运行的重要基础，这一原则也得到了金融市场和多数经济界人士的认 可。华尔街金融市场对此反应敏感，道琼斯工业平均指数当日波动幅度达 1.2%。这一波动反映出市场 对政策稳定性的担忧，毕竟美联储的政策变动会直接影响到股市、债市等诸多金融领域，进而波及整个 美国经济。 面对舆论压力，特朗普在社交平台 Truth Social 发布视频声明，指责《华尔街日报》"制造虚假新闻"， 并宣布对该报母公司新闻集团及其董事长鲁珀特・默多克提起诉讼。他在视频中情绪激动，多 ...

美国上涨 【导读】美股继续上涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 多家科技巨头股价创新高 7月17日晚间，美股上涨，受到最新经济数据和一系列企业财报的提振。 标普500指数上涨0.45%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨近200点，涨幅为0.4%，科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.7%。 本周公布的季度财报普遍好于华尔街预期，增强了投资者信心。据FactSet数据显示，截至目前已有约50家标普500指数成份公司公布财报，其中88%的业 绩超过分析师预期。 周四公布的关键经济数据反映出美国经济的稳健。美国劳工部表示，截至7月12日当周的首次申领失业救济人数为22.1万人，较前一周减少7000人，表明 就业市场依然稳健。 另据美国人口普查局的最新数据，6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，远高于道琼斯预期的0.2%，缓解了市场对消费者支出下滑的担忧。 eToro美国投资分析师Bret Kenwell表示："这份令人安心的零售销售报告发布得恰逢其时，正值财报季启动之际。如果企业盈利比预期更为乐观，且管理 层继续传递有关消费者支出稳定的积极信号，那么即便市场已接近历史高位、部分投资者认为估值偏高，股市仍可 ...

按照既定会历，美联储将于7月29日至30日召开政策会议，而上周鲍威尔在向美国参众两院汇报货币政策时，进一步重 申了其在6月政策会议期间的"观望"态度，加之目前市场也预期美联储在7月会议上将按兵不动，从表面上来看，美联储 的7月会议的最终决议将延续今年以来的"平淡无奇"。 文丨张涛（中国建设银行金融市场部，文章仅代表作者观点） 但是，7月份会议很可能会带来市场对美联储政策预期的重大变化！ 首先，美联储可能会重现32年前的罕见分歧局面。 美联储的货币政策主要是在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上宣布的，FOMC 每年定期举行八次会议，会议决议由 FOMC的12名成员投票表决。12名票委员包括8名固定人员（7名联储理事与纽约联邦储备银行行长），其余4名则由纽 储之外11家储备银行行长按年轮流担任。由于美联储内部有充分的沟通，因此很少能看到FOMC会议决策表决上会有分 歧，尤其是出现多名联储理事投反对票的局面，迄今只有1993年12月会议上，出现过两名联储理事投了反对票，当时联 储主席是格林斯潘。 但是，在7月份的会议，32年前的局面可能会再现。因为，在6月份，有两名联储理事明确表达了7月降息的意愿，这两 名分别是 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔本周将赴国会山履职，此刻他正面临来自美联储内外的空前降息压力。根据日程安排， 鲍威尔将于周二上午向众议院金融服务委员会提交货币政策报告，履行半年一次的国会证词职责，周三还 将前往参议院银行委员会接受质询。 安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian周一指出，当前政治因素已开始渗透联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC） 的决策机制。此前美联储理事鲍曼在布拉格演讲中明确表示，若通胀数据持续符合预期，她可能支持下月 开启政策宽松；而上周五美联储理事沃勒亦发表类似言论，这与鲍威尔上周强调的"待关税影响明晰后再 采取耐心政策"的立场形成微妙分歧。值得注意的是，沃勒与鲍曼均为特朗普首个任期内任命，且两人均 被视作明年接替鲍威尔的潜在人选。 市场对政策转向的预期已显著升温。据芝加哥商品交易所（CMEGroup）美联储观察工具显示，交易员对7 月降息的定价概率已升至23%，而9月降息概率超82%。更具挑战性的是，鲍威尔在未来两天的国会听证中 需同时应对两党压力：共和党人可能就货币政策宽松滞后提出质疑，而自由派参议员沃伦等早已敦促其启 动降息，这种政治角力正考验着美联储传统上的政策独立性边界。 当美联储核心官员的 ...