Group 1 - Gold futures regained upward momentum, trading around $3445, facing profit-taking pressure and weak long positions among short-term traders [1][2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported record high gold inventories, indicating strong demand in China, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered for futures delivery [2] - Gold prices rose for three consecutive days following weak U.S. employment data, but profit-locking by investors led to a short-term pullback as risk aversion decreased [2] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls hold an overall advantage, with the next target being a close above the July high of $3509 [3] - Key resistance levels are at this week's high of $3444.90 and $3450, while support levels are at this week's low of $3397.90 and $3350 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The southbound capital experienced a rare net outflow exceeding 180 billion HKD, driven by short-term risk aversion and profit-taking during a market rebound [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 4, the Hong Kong stock market indices showed a slight rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.92%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.01% [1]. - The total market turnover was approximately 234.7 billion HKD, with southbound capital transactions amounting to about 130.1 billion HKD [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow Analysis - The southbound capital recorded a net outflow of 180.92 billion HKD, marking the largest single-day net sell-off since May 12 [3]. - The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net outflow of approximately 111.24 billion HKD, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced a net outflow of about 69.68 billion HKD [3]. Group 3: ETF Activity - Three major high-liquidity ETFs in Hong Kong faced significant sell-offs, with the top three ETFs experiencing net outflows of 145.34 billion HKD, 63.25 billion HKD, and 14.53 billion HKD respectively [8]. - The year-to-date returns for these ETFs have exceeded 20% [8]. Group 4: External Environment and Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding deteriorating trade conditions affecting Hong Kong's export-oriented companies and Chinese concept stocks have emerged, particularly following agreements reached by Trump with multiple countries [9]. - The Hong Kong stock market had been in a downward trend prior to this event, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing four consecutive days of decline and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping for seven consecutive days [9]. Group 5: Individual Stock Movements - Notable net purchases were observed in individual stocks, with Alibaba-W, InnoCare Pharma, and Kuaishou-W leading the net buy list, amounting to 7.28 billion HKD, 3.63 billion HKD, and 2.2 billion HKD respectively [9]. - InnoCare Pharma saw a significant increase in its stock price, closing at 75.15 HKD per share with a rise of 30.47%, following a partnership announcement with NVIDIA [9].

Group 1 - The article highlights the finalization of tariffs by the Trump administration, eliminating a major source of uncertainty in the market, but warns of the potential negative impact on the global economy due to high tariffs and weak employment data [3][6]. - Nomura's report identifies two negative catalysts: the finalized tariffs that exceeded expectations and the unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll report for July, which could trigger profit-taking and position adjustments in the market [4][11]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 16.3% to 17.5%, with varying impacts on different economies, such as the EU, South Korea, and Japan receiving a 15% tariff rate, while India faces a 25% tariff, significantly higher than the expected range [7][8]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 120,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248%, the highest since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [11]. - There has been a reversal in capital flows, with foreign investors turning net sellers of emerging Asian stocks after seven weeks of inflows, primarily driven by the negative impact of high tariffs on the Indian market [12][13]. - Earnings expectations for Asian markets are weakening, with a 1.2% downward adjustment in consensus earnings for FY25E among 43% of MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) companies, while U.S. earnings show resilience with a 10.3% year-over-year growth rate for the second quarter [16].

基 金 研 | | | | 年二季度国内公募基金份额点评 2025 | [Table_Authors] | 张弛(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | | 登记编号 | S0880525040075 | | 本报告导读： | | 倪韵婷(分析师) | | 2025 年二季度国内公募基金份额（不含货币基金）为 16.67 万亿份，较上季度末增 | | 021-38676666 | | 加了 3.76%。具体来看，新发基金 2507.06 亿份，平均份额 6.33 亿份，存量基金份 | 登记编号 | S0880525040097 | | 额增加 3538.39 亿份，二季度公募基金份额的增长同时来自存量基金的份额增长以 | | | | 及新基金的发行。 | | | 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 究 基 金 季 报 告 [Table_Summary] 2025 年二季度国内公募基金份额点评。2025 年二季度国内公募基金 份额（不含货币基金）为 16.67 万亿份，较上季度末增加了 3.76%。 具体来看，新发基金 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's ultimatum to Russia on palm oil prices, highlighting concerns over demand weakness and profit-taking that led to the end of a two-day price increase for palm oil [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's ultimatum to Russia has created uncertainty in the market, influencing investor sentiment and trading behavior [1] - Profit-taking activities have been observed, contributing to the decline in palm oil prices after a brief rally [1] Group 2: Demand Concerns - There are growing worries about weak demand for palm oil, which may affect future price stability [1] - The ability of palm oil to maintain key support levels is in question due to these demand concerns [1]

Group 1 - The global physical gold market is experiencing significant divergence, with Asian buyers continuing to purchase aggressively while U.S. investors are cashing out at high levels, reflecting differing regional perspectives on economic outlook and gold market trends [1] - In the U.S. market, there is an oversupply of gold bars and coins, leading some precious metal dealers to reduce premiums to the lowest levels in six years to stimulate sales. Retail investors are facing additional costs when selling gold, with the cost to sell an ounce of American Eagle coin dropping from $175 four years ago to about $20 now [3] - The demand for gold bars and coins in North America and Western Europe has been declining for the past three years, with the first quarter of 2025 showing the largest gap since records began in 2014, primarily driven by sell-offs in the U.S. market [3] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, demand for gold bars and coins in the Asia-Pacific region grew by 3%, with China seeing a 12% increase and countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia experiencing over 30% growth [4] - Concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs and domestic currency depreciation have made gold a preferred asset for Asian investors, who have played a key role in the recent rise in gold prices since 2024 [4] - Wall Street's views on whether the gold price surge has ended are mixed, with Goldman Sachs reaffirming its prediction of gold reaching $4,000 per ounce next year, while Morgan Stanley expects it to reach $3,800 by the end of this year, and Citigroup forecasts a drop below $3,000 next year [4]

有迹象显示，尽管亚洲买家仍在马不停蹄地扫货黄金实物资产，但曾热衷购买金条和金币的美 国人如今却正在高位试图套现，这一分歧似乎或多或少地表明，全球各地的投资者对经济前景 和黄金市场的走向，有着截然不同的看法。 数据显示， 美国市场上的金条和金币目前正出现供过于求的状况，部分贵金属经销商已将溢价降 至六年来的最低水平以刺激销售。当散户投资者试图出售黄金时，现在需要支付给经销商额外费用 才能成功脱手。 研究咨询公司Metals Focus Ltd.董事总经理Philip Newman对此表示，"许多美国散户投资 者倾向于支持共和党。因此，无论我们如何评价关税政策，他们似乎都不抵触特朗普的行事方 式。因此，从他们的角度来看，购买黄金的理由减少了。" 花旗集团大宗商品策略师Kenny Hu对媒体表示："当存在恐惧时，他们(美国投资者)会持有更 多黄金，减少风险资产配置。现在他们可能觉得情况其实还好。 关税没那么糟糕。事情可以 通过谈判解决。地缘紧张局势最终会缓和，美国经济增长也许也不会那么差。" 而与此同时，根据世界黄金协会的最新数据， 2025年第一季度亚太地区对金条和金币的需求依 然强势增长了3% ，其中中国市场同 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment improved due to reports indicating Iran's willingness to release tensions, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - Gold prices initially surged to $3452 per ounce but later fell below $3400 during North American trading hours [1] - The decline in gold prices was attributed to reduced safe-haven demand following Iran's openness to nuclear negotiations and profit-taking by traders after reaching an eight-week high [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy announcement, despite ongoing pressure for rate cuts from President Trump [3] - Economic uncertainties, including tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, may lead the Federal Reserve to delay any rate cuts [3] - Investors remain cautious regarding the Fed's future policy direction due to unclear judgments on inflation and growth [3] Group 3 - The recent gold market showed a pattern of initial gains followed by a decline, causing confusion among market participants [5] - A critical support level is identified at $3376, with resistance at $3415, indicating a potential for continued volatility [5] - The overall trend is characterized as sideways, with the possibility of further adjustments before a clear direction is established [5] Group 4 - A trading strategy suggests buying near $3376 with a stop loss at $3368, targeting $3410-15, while also considering short positions if $3415 is not breached [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of providing useful insights to investors and maintaining a disciplined approach to trading [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a recent decline in gold prices, with the most active June 2025 gold futures dropping by $69.2 to $3372.6 per ounce, a decrease of 2.01% due to profit-taking by investors after two days of significant gains [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates despite President Trump's call for a rate cut, citing rising risks in unemployment and inflation [1] - China's central bank continues to contribute positively to the gold market, with gold reserves reported at 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2294.51 tons) as of the end of April, marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) for the sixth consecutive month [1] - Poland's central bank increased its gold reserves by 12 tons to 509 tons in April, while the Czech National Bank also raised its reserves by 2.5 tons, marking the 26th consecutive month of gold purchases [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in gold prices, institutions remain optimistic about the outlook, with U.S. Bank analysts projecting that gold prices could rise to $4000 per ounce in the second half of the year, a significant increase from their previous forecast of $3500 by 2027 [2] - Silver futures for July delivery also saw a decline, dropping by $0.825 to $32.61 per ounce, a decrease of 2.47% [2]

市场风险情绪改善加速黄金的获利了结，4月23日，国际金价大幅回撤，白银则强势补涨。 截至当天收盘时，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年6月黄金期价当日下跌90.5美元， 收于每盎司3301.5美元，跌幅2.67%。 与之形成对比的是，美元企稳出现反弹，23日盘中美元指数日内高点一度逼近100关口。衡量美元对六 种主要货币的美元指数23日上涨0.94%，在汇市尾市收于99.844。 值得关注的是，在前几日金价大幅飙升之际，市场有分析人士已经开始警示金价短期超买的风险。随着 金价冲高回落，在风险情绪未出现再度恶化之前，金价阶段性调整风险也在增加。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管在最新分析报告中写道，"从技术角度来看，金价在3500美元这个水平附近 猛涨之后，走势急剧逆转，这在短期内增加金价进一步回调的风险。" 此外，近期受避险驱动黄金大幅飙升的同时，商品属性偏强的白银则表现疲软。随着市场风险情绪的改 善，银价迎来补涨。23日，纽约市场7月交割的白银期货价格收盘上涨107.5美分，报收于每盎司33.880 美元，涨幅为3.28%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-260 ...