2025 年 05 月 21 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250521）：天津 23.39 亿元成交两宗地 走势比较 40% (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8/2 24/10/13 24/12/24 25/3/6 房地产 沪深300 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 房地产板块个股涨幅较大的前五名为空港股份、粤宏远 A、南国 置 业 、 荣 丰 控 股 、 阳 光 股 份 ， 涨 幅 分 别 为 10.04%/10.00%/5.05%/5.03%/3.24%； 个股跌幅较大的为华夏幸福、京基智农、电子城、华丽家族、宁 波富达，跌幅分别为-10.14%/-9.83%/-6.13%/-3.24%/-2.49%。 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250520）：杭 州土拍收金42.49亿元>>--2025-05- 20 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250519）：厦 门多家银行首套房贷利率下限上调 5bp>>--2025- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently facing challenges such as weak sales, price inversion, and high inventory levels, exacerbated by a new alcohol ban, leading to a significant drop in stock prices for liquor companies [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The total revenue of 20 listed liquor companies for 2024 is projected to be 439 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, while net profit is expected to reach 166.63 billion yuan, up 7.40% [1] - The top three companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu) have a market share exceeding 65.4%, with profit concentration reaching 73.92% [1][3] - Moutai's revenue and profit growth for 2024 are both expected to exceed 15%, while Wuliangye's growth has dropped to single digits, marking its lowest level since 2017 [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Moutai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 174.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve a revenue of 36 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.79%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][10] - Gujing Gongjiu's net profit growth is notable at 20.22%, amidst a backdrop of declining performance from many other companies [2][10] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The total operating cash flow for listed liquor companies is projected to be 173.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.64%, driven mainly by leading companies like Moutai [6] - Moutai's cash flow growth rate is particularly high at 38.85%, attributed to increased sales and improved trust from distributors [6] - Contract liabilities for liquor companies totaled 56.08 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with Moutai's liabilities decreasing by 32.09% to 9.59 billion yuan, marking a significant shift in its financial strategy [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The liquor market is experiencing a shift, with Moutai leveraging various sales strategies to maintain its market position, despite facing challenges in balancing volume and price [7][8] - The competition landscape is evolving, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also showing some positive financial indicators, despite overall industry challenges [9][10] - The rise of instant retail and e-commerce is reshaping the market, providing opportunities for companies to adapt and capture more daily liquor consumption [12]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 房地产开发 2024 开发房企年报综述：行业全面亏损，头部房企依然具备显著竞争优势 2024 年，开发房企逐步走出结转高峰，行业整体营收规模开始萎缩；盈利能力不 断弱化及房价下跌带来减值压力，行业出现大面积亏损；房企在融资销售两端承 压下，在手现金也延续较快下降速度。我们统计了全行业 168 家开发房企财务数 据。2024 年，开发房企整体实现营收 4.33 万亿元（人民币，同比-19.2%，下同）； 实现净利润-3763 亿元（较 2023 年-19 亿元大幅下行）；实现归母净利润-3740 亿 元（-771.4%）。利润率方面，2024 年开发房企整体毛利率为 15.3%（-1.9pct）； 归母净利润率为-8.6%（-7.8pct）。期内，168 家开发房企实现归母净利润为正有 68 家，亏损有 100 家；归母净利润增长的仅 38 家，下降的有 130 家。流动性方 面，期末开发房企在手现金规模为 1.63 万亿元（-19.4%）。 重点国央企在营收、盈利等方面承压，但相较行业整体依然具备显著竞争优势。 我们选 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 20 日 万科 A（000002.SZ） 25Q1 业绩受开发毛利率进一步下行拖累，大股东持续 支持帮助公司妥善化解到期债务 （1）25Q1 业绩受开发毛利率进一步下行拖累仍为亏损；（2）开发业务方面， 公司积极开展资源盘活，25Q1 实现盘活回款 24 笔，合计 40.9 亿；（3）经 营业务方面，维持稳健发展；（4）债务层面，积极通过资产交易及大股东借款 应对短期债券偿付压力。预计 25E/26E/27E EPS 分别为-1.35/-0.52/-0.14 元/ 股，当前股价对应 PE 分别为-5.0/-13.2/-49.2，综合考虑公司销售仍面临下行压 力以及公司截止目前积极处置及抵押资产以应对公开债务偿付的情况，维持"增 持"评级，投资人可关注公司后续债务化解进度 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 465739 | 343176 | 237689 | 169777 | ...

2025 年 05 月 16 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250515）：杭州临平区崇贤新城推出首宗 不限房价地块 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250515）：联 发集团26.05亿元竞得南京雨花台区 宅地>>--2025-05-15 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250514）：深 铁集团拟向万科提供借款>>--2025- 05-14 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250513）：杭 州 3 宗涉宅地块收金 25.73 亿元>>-- 2025-05-13 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8 ...

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，乳制品行业加速下行！ 去年A股19家乳制品行业公司总共实现营业收入1848.27亿元，同比减少7.44%。14家乳制品公司营业收 入出现下滑，而前一年仅为6家。归母净利润总额则从130.97亿元下滑到95.76亿元，净利润下滑的公司 达到13家。 "供给过剩、需求走弱、库存偏高"，是压制乳制品行业的三大因素，这导致生鲜乳价格不断下行，行业 竞争变激烈。 这一轮原奶价格下行从2021年开始，目前已经下行三年。从乳业指数来看，从2021年1月高点到2024年9 月低点，已经跌超50%。而从2024年9月起，乳业指数出现一轮明显上涨，市场期待上游去化带动原奶 价格见底，同时促生育等政策带动需求回升。 乳制品行业的拐点会出现吗？ 上市乳企销售费用率整体提升 贝因美销售费用率最高 去年19家上市乳制品企业销售费用总额315.49亿元，同比减少2.96%，低于收入降幅。11家公司销售费 用在减少，其中品渥食品降低了51%，西部牧业降低了20%，皇氏集团（维权）降低了15.68%，熊猫乳 品降低了11.16%，这四家公司营业收入同样也在大幅下滑。 值得一提的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant downturn in 2024, with a notable decline in revenue and profit across many companies, attributed to oversupply, weakened demand, and high inventory levels [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - In 2023, 19 dairy companies in A-shares reported a total revenue of 184.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44%. 14 companies experienced revenue declines, compared to only 6 the previous year [1]. - The total net profit for these companies fell from 13.10 billion yuan to 9.58 billion yuan, with 13 companies reporting profit declines [1]. - The dairy industry has faced a continuous decline in raw milk prices since 2021, with the dairy index dropping over 50% from its peak in January 2021 to its low in September 2024 [1]. Company Performance - Yili Group remains the dominant player in the industry, with a revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, followed by Bright Dairy, New Hope Dairy, and San Yuan Dairy, with revenues of 24.28 billion yuan, 10.67 billion yuan, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively [1]. - The revenue of Yili Group decreased by 8.24%, while Bright Dairy and San Yuan Dairy saw declines of 8.33% and 10.73%, respectively [2][6]. - The number of companies with revenue declines increased from 6 to 14, indicating that nearly 74% of dairy companies faced revenue drops, with a median decline of 10.75% [3]. Notable Declines - The five companies with the most significant revenue declines include Huangshi Group, Pinwa Food, Panda Dairy, Jiahe Food, and Xibu Dairy, all of which have revenues below 2.5 billion yuan [3]. - Huangshi Group's revenue dropped significantly due to the transfer of its subsidiaries and ongoing diversification efforts that have not yielded expected returns [3]. - Pinwa Food, primarily an imported food company, reported a 24.9% decrease in revenue, while Panda Dairy faced overall product declines due to weak consumer demand [4]. Growth Opportunities - Five dairy companies reported revenue growth, including Huirong Technology, Beingmate, Yiming Food, Tianrun Dairy, and Knight Dairy, with Huirong Technology showing the highest growth due to its focus on plant-based and dairy fats [5]. - Beingmate, specializing in infant formula and nutritional products, achieved a revenue increase of 9.7%, although its gross margin declined due to increased sales discounts [5].

华虹半导体 (1347 HK) 港股通 九厂放量有望推动收入稳步增长 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 13 日│中国香港 | 半导体 | 1Q25 营收 5.41 亿美元（YoY：+17.6%，QoQ：+0.3%），达到公司指引中 值，主要得益于晶圆出货量增加。付运晶圆 123.1 万片（YoY+20.0%， QoQ+1.5%），产能利用率 102.7%，持续饱满。毛利率 9.2%，同比+2.8pct （产能利用率提升），环比-2.2pct（受新产线折旧影响），符合公司指引的 9%~11%。归母净利润 375 万美元，上季度为净亏损 2520 万美元。展望 Q2，指引营收 5.5-5.7 亿美元（中值环比+3.5%），毛利率 7～9%，主要受 到折旧影响。展望全年：1）看好公司产能持续饱满，12 英寸产能稳步爬坡， 后续有望增厚收入；2）全年价格或稳健，ASP 随着产品组合改善存在上升 空间；3）模拟和电源管理收入稳健增长，受益于关税下国产化趋势加速。 维持华虹的"买入"评级，目标价 43.0 港币。 证券研究报告 目标价 43.0 港 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月12日 保利发展（600048.SH） 毛利率下行和资产减值拖累短期业绩 证券分析师：任鹤 证券分析师：王粤雷 S0980520040006 S0980520030001 归母净利下降 59%。2024 年公司实现营业收入 3117 亿元，同比下降 10.2%； 实现归母净利润 50 亿元，同比下降 58.6%。公司营收和利润双双下降的主要 原因是年内交付结转规模下降，以及毛利率下降和计提减值所致。2024 年公 司实现毛利率 13.9%，同比下降 2.5pct，全年计提减值约 55 亿元。 销售持续保持领先，在手资源不断优化。2024 年公司实现销售面积 1797 万平方米，同比下降 24.7%；实现销售金额 3230 亿元，同比下降 23.5%，销 售金额连续两年稳居行业第一，实现归属于股东的权益销售金额相对稳定， 约 2465 亿元，同比下降 14.5%。公司核心城市深耕效果进一步凸显，全年 38 个核心城市销售占比达到 90%，同比提升 2pct；38 个核心城市销售市占 率达 7.1%，同比提升 0.3pct，其中 14 个核心城市取得 10%以上市占率，16 个城 ...

Group 1 - The real estate industry is nearing the end of a downward cycle, with companies completing debt restructuring and asset quality stabilizing due to price stabilization and cash flow recovery [1] - Companies are experiencing a comprehensive contraction in operations, with a significant decrease in marketable resources, leading to a long-term reduction in sales and expenditures [1] - The competition in the industry is shifting from simple financial strength to a comprehensive competition based on development capabilities, product premium, and operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - In 2024, contract liabilities for 14 sample companies decreased by 17% year-on-year, down 30% from the peak in 2021, indicating a significant reduction in financial obligations [2] - The ratio of planned area to under-construction area for sample companies increased by 5.6 percentage points to 53.8%, reflecting a strategic reduction in new construction to save costs [2] - New construction area for sample companies is expected to decline by 32% in 2024 and again by 32% in 2025, indicating a cautious approach to investment [2] Group 3 - Companies are actively optimizing asset quality, with total assets for 14 sample companies projected to decrease by 7% to 9.2 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [3] - The inventory structure is improving, with a 14% decrease in inventory and a 25% reduction in total development costs, while the total development product amount increased by 21% [3] - The gross profit margin for sample companies is expected to decline by 2.7 percentage points to 12.8%, as companies focus on liquidating older inventory while supplementing new stock [3] Group 4 - Interest-bearing liabilities for sample companies slightly decreased by 1% to 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a significant shift in debt structure towards asset-backed financing [4] - The balance of corporate credit financing decreased by 15.2%, while bank loans increased by 5%, indicating a move away from reliance on credit financing [4] - The proportion of credit financing in the total financing structure dropped by 3.9 percentage points to 22%, reflecting a healthier financing environment for the industry [4]