Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new tariff policy on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real - demand for steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances. The price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday [5]. - For the black sector, the report is not pessimistic. It is believed that the macro - level factors will be the focus of medium - and long - term trading. Looking for callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price oscillates mainly. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - For polysilicon, the current short - term price fluctuations are regarded as technical corrections in the structural adjustment process. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3787 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 60083 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3212 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.89%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 39913 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 17676 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Views - The new tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment again, causing a short - term impact on commodity prices. In the context of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the overall trend remains unchanged. The weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse in the short term [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.70% (- 5.50), and the positions increased by 8566 lots to 50.84 million lots. The weighted positions were 84.91 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.71% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the average daily molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) rose 0.14% to close at 5746 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 144 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) rose 0.56% to close at 5352 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 248 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. Strategy Views - For the black sector, the price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation. The report is not pessimistic about the black sector's future [8]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's trend. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [9]. - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector's trend, with low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8570 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+ 50). The weighted contract positions decreased by 12310 lots to 430409 lots. The spot prices of East China's 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with basis of 730 yuan/ton and 330 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50865 yuan/ton, up 1.75% (+ 875). The weighted contract positions increased by 11148 lots to 264927 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1885 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Views - The industrial silicon price oscillates mainly in the short term. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - The polysilicon price is in a fundamental correction stage. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1129 yuan/ton, down 0.79% (- 9). The North China and Central China spot prices were 1220 yuan and 1200 yuan respectively, with the latter decreasing by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million boxes (+ 5.84%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 28850 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 38002 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1232 yuan/ton, down 0.16% (- 2). The Shahe heavy - soda price decreased by 2 yuan to 1162 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%), with the heavy - soda and light - soda inventories increasing by 1.75 million tons and 4.24 million tons respectively. The top 20 long - position holders increased 471 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 4899 lots [19]. Strategy Views - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products trended downwards. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline in the context of a weakening commodity market. The current weak reality pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy strength during the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For the black sector, the research team is not pessimistic. Instead of short - selling, it believes that finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10910 tons, and the open interest increased by 26595 lots. The terminal demand dropped to a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2058 tons, and the open interest increased by 24873 lots. The production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and the inventory increase was prominent [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.19% (+9.50). The open interest increased by 9148 lots to 48.53 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.15 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.98% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. The daily average pig iron output was 241.54 million tons, down 0.27 million tons. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. If the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.24% at 5746 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. Its fundamentals are not ideal, and it is likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.55% at 5406 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 244 yuan/ton over the futures. Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+120). The open interest increased by 13950 lots to 429365 lots. The supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to rise [12][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 48740 yuan/ton, down 0.46% (-225). The open interest decreased by 107 lots to 246615 lots. The market may enter a fundamental correction stage, and the price is under pressure in the short term [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1179 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-28). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+5.84%). The short - term price is expected to continue the stable and narrow - range oscillation pattern [18][19]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1247 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+5.84%). The short - term market is expected to continue the stable and weak trend [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was fair, but prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Politburo meeting determined the date of the Fourth Plenary Session, and the National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, which boosted market sentiment. In the black - series market, trading volume declined slightly near the holiday, and the market remained cautious about holiday - period demand. Although there was a slight rebound in exports this week, the market remained in a weak oscillation. The demand for both hot - rolled coils and rebar was weak, showing prominent characteristics of a non - booming peak season. With the approach of the Fourth Plenary Session, the futures market will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, and steel prices still face a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, short - term hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After the end of steel mills' restocking, demand contradictions will mainly be reflected in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand and inventory conditions after the holiday [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the current demand and supply environment, the market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment, and then prices may rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon may follow the black - series market, and its price may be driven by potential disruptions in the manganese ore market. Ferrosilicon is also likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether there are improvements in the supply - demand structure. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase [14]. - For polysilicon, the current futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, and the market lacks upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. - For glass, the futures market showed wide - range oscillations. Terminal demand remained weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on subsequent policy trends [19]. - For soda ash, the domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21]. Summary by Category Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2412 tons to 270238 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 49906 lots to 1.926639 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: The closing price of the main contract was 3289 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.72%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28314 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 6738 lots to 1.38447 million lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Near the holiday, trading volume declined slightly, and the market was cautious about holiday - period demand. Rebar production was basically the same as last week, pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. Hot - rolled coil production declined, apparent demand was moderate, and inventory slightly accumulated. Overall, demand for both was weak, and the market was in a weakly oscillating pattern. Steel prices still faced a risk of decline, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 784.00 yuan/ton, down 0.76% (- 6.00 yuan), with an open - interest change of - 34937 lots to 474000 lots. The weighted open interest was 784200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.93 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.31% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: Overseas iron - ore shipments remained stable at a high level. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - term arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot - metal production was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons. Steel mills' profitability declined further. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, and steel mills' imported - ore inventory increased significantly. Before the National Day, steel mills' restocking was almost over. - In the short term, hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After restocking ends, demand contradictions will mainly be in the downstream. If finished - product conditions weaken after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with light positions before the holiday and focus on downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.48% at 5820 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 170 yuan/ton. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.88% at 5610 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The black - series market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment and then rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, but low manganese - ore port inventory and relatively strong prices may drive its price if the black - series market strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8610 yuan/ton, down 3.91% (- 350 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 39748 lots to 442464 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with bases of 690 and 290 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Before the holiday, some funds left the market, weakening the futures price. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvements after the holiday [13][14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51280 yuan/ton, down 0.36% (- 185 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 10968 lots to 229306 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1270 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - The futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, lacking upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 1.92% (- 24 yuan). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 1553000 cases (- 2.55%) to 59355000 cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 64705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 43782 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1278 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (- 15 yuan). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 15 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 104100 tons (- 2.55%) to 1651500 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 14607 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 24990 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The futures market oscillated widely. Terminal demand was weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on policy trends [19]. - Soda ash: The domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate weakly. The steel prices still face a risk of decline from a fundamental perspective, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term hot metal production is strong. After the steel mills' replenishment is completed, if the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with a light position before the holiday and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [4]. - The price of the black sector may first decline to release the bearish sentiment in the market and then rise with the expectation of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Although the decline may not be deep, the market may trade on the expectations of the "15th Five - Year Plan". In the long - term, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long positions [7]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand structure improves after the holiday [12]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term risk of phased decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of the main contract price and policy changes [14]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed with a slightly bullish bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy directions [17]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, with limited price fluctuations [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 272,650 tons, a net increase of 1228 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.976545 million lots, an increase of 106,096 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, the overall demand was weak, and the steel price still faced a risk of decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, a decrease of 890 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.391208 million lots, an increase of 21,492 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand was weak, and the market was in a weak volatile state [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.92% (-15.50). The position changed by -20,811 lots to 508,900 lots. The weighted position was 830,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. The short - term hot metal production was strong, but the steel mills' profitability declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mills' replenishment was nearly completed. If the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward [4]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On September 26, the main contract (SM601) of manganese silicon dropped significantly, closing down 1.52% at 5834 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 108 yuan/ton or -1.81%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the support around 5600 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. If the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [8]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 2.18% at 5660 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton or -1.57%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton and the support around 5400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There are no obvious contradictions and drivers in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and it is likely to follow the trend of the black sector [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (-95). The weighted contract position changed by -17,816 lots to 482,212 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, with a basis of 340 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -60 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward on Friday. The supply and demand have not changed significantly in the short term. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [11][12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 51,465 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+100). The weighted contract position changed by -1661 lots to 240,274 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, all unchanged from the previous period. The basis was 1085 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current futures price is at a discount to the spot price. There is no significant progress in capacity integration and downstream price transmission. There is a short - term risk of phased decline in prices, and attention should be paid to support levels and policy changes [14]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1252 yuan/ton, down 1.42% (-18). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1220 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, up 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,926 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 19,222 lots [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass futures market showed a wide - range volatile pattern. The terminal demand was weak, and the supply was abundant. The inventory performance varied by region. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in the short term and pay attention to subsequent policies [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1293 yuan/ton, down 1.67% (-22). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1203 yuan, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including a decrease of 83,700 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and a decrease of 20,400 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 9095 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 1242 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with slight fluctuations. The production was stable, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak fundamental state with price upward pressure, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and future focus should be on actual demand and macro - policy trends [3]. - The current high price of iron ore is not sustainable due to weakening steel fundamentals, insufficient demand in the peak season, and pressure on steel mill profits [20]. - After the lifting of coking enterprise production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term, and it is not recommended to short - allocate coking coal [32]. - Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand [51]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and stable rigid demand [65]. - The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3143 yuan/ton, up from 3117 yuan/ton on September 4. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also had slight changes [4][7][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the parade, this week's pig iron production decreased significantly. After the parade, the iron ore price rebounded strongly, and the market believes that short - term production restrictions have limited impact on iron ore. The steel market has a weak fundamental state, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts such as the 01, 05, and 09 contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao also had slight changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.29 tons this week compared to last week. The 45 - port ore inventory increased by 62.3 tons week - on - week. The global and Australia - Brazil iron ore shipments increased [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The current high price of iron ore is due to the resumption of steel mills' production after the parade and the weakening of coking coal. However, this upward trend is not sustainable due to the weakening steel fundamentals [20]. Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 01 - 05 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also had certain changes [38][39]. - **Market Analysis**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term. The coking coal market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure, but the short - term surplus problem is not serious [32]. Ferroalloys - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed compared to the previous day. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from the previous day [52][56]. - **Market Analysis**: Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand. There is a possibility of production reduction due to falling profits [51]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1387 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.21% [66]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The rigid demand is stable, and the cost of raw salt and coal is temporarily stable [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1287 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.13% [94]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market shows weak supply and demand, with production and demand both affected by the parade. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, which may suppress prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are under pressure. However, the long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. The spot prices have declined, and the futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. But there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Iron ore production has decreased due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Thursday, steel production dropped significantly due to the parade, and apparent demand also declined. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, suppressing prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - Suggestion: Unilateral observation, and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate stages [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black sector changes rapidly. The fundamentals are poor in the short term, with increased supply and weak terminal demand. Inventory is high, and prices are under pressure. The long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - Suggestion: Short - sell on rallies [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot price of port metallurgical coke has dropped by 30, and the coking coal auction has declined with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. However, there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Suggestion: Close existing short positions gradually and consider batch - layout of medium - term long positions [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore production has dropped to 11290 tons per day due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways observation, close futures-cash arbitrage positions [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short on rallies [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider partial profit-taking for existing short positions, stay on the sidelines for non-participants [8] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market was weak on Monday, with the black sector leading the decline. Steel spot prices and trading volumes both dropped, and the futures-cash basis widened. The valuation of steel futures has been repaired to a neutral range, but the near-month contracts are under pressure [2]. - The short-term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are mainly under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance [5]. - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 1st, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3165.00 yuan/ton, 3314.00 yuan/ton, 743.00 yuan/ton, 1691.00 yuan/ton, and 1167.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of -10.00 yuan/ton, -45.00 yuan/ton, -20.50 yuan/ton, -54.00 yuan/ton, and -32.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3115.00 yuan/ton, 3303.00 yuan/ton, 766.00 yuan/ton, 1594.50 yuan/ton, and 1118.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 8.00 yuan/ton, -53.00 yuan/ton, -21.00 yuan/ton, -58.50 yuan/ton, and -38.00 yuan/ton [1]. Steel - Steel supply remains at a relatively high level. The short-term production restriction may have a temporary impact on hot metal, but the duration will not be long. Demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly [2]. - The steel futures price has been further revised down to between the electric furnace loss and the blast furnace cost. The basis has widened, and the premium has improved. The valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short-term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The supply continues to increase, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined [5]. - The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance. Short-term oversold may lead to price rebounds, and existing short positions can consider partial profit-taking [5]. Iron Ore - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently weak, with futures prices falling and spot prices following suit. The market is waiting to see if there will be a mismatch in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [2] - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are not good, and prices are mainly under pressure. [3] - The eighth round of coke price increase has been temporarily shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak in the short - term. [5] - The iron ore price is supported by the pre - holiday restocking cycle under high iron - making production, but supply increments in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] 3) Summary by Directory Steel - Futures prices of steel contracts are weak, with the near - month contracts moving towards the weak spot prices. The price center has dropped to between electric - arc furnace losses and blast - furnace costs, and the basis has widened significantly. [2] - On the macro level, there is a policy vacuum, and attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming parade on production and market sentiment. [2] - In terms of industry reality, steel supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly both on a monthly and annual basis. [2] - Suggestion: Stop losses on short - term long positions in steel futures and wait for opportunities. The cash - and - carry arbitrage is in the profit - taking window. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly follow the sector. [3] - The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply continues to increase, and it is difficult to have large - scale production cuts in the short - term. [3] - Terminal demand may not improve significantly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and the risk of a decline in steel - mill production is increasing, which will impact the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. [3] - Suggestion: Sell at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The eighth round of coke price increase has been shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. [5] - The futures market of coking coal and coke is weak, and the black - chain index has fallen. The market is mainly concerned about the verification of steel demand during the peak season. [5] - The supply of coal mines and coking enterprises is still restricted, but due to the difficulty of price transmission downstream and the weakening of thermal - coal prices after the peak season, coking coal and coke prices are also falling. [5] - Suggestion: Industrial customers should pay attention to hedging opportunities after price increases. [7] Iron Ore - The black - metal sector is oscillating, and the influence of the near - month contracts on the far - month contracts has decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming meetings on iron - making production. [6] - In September, the pre - holiday restocking cycle will support the iron - ore price, but the expected supply increment in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] - Suggestion: The support level of the 01 - contract iron - ore price is still valid. [6] Market Data on August 29 Futures Market | Contract | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2601 (Far - month) | 3160.00 | - 22.00 | - 0.69 | | HC2605 (Far - month) | 3352.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.03 | | I2605 (Far - month) | 763.50 | 5.00 | 0.66 | | J2605 (Far - month) | 1733.50 | - 9.50 | - 0.55 | | JM2605 (Far - month) | 1193.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.08 | | RB2510 (Near - month) | 3090.00 | - 26.00 | - 0.83 | | HC2601 (Near - month) | 3346.00 | - 16.00 | - 0.48 | | I2601 (Near - month) | 787.50 | 6.00 | 0.77 | | J2601 (Near - month) | 1643.00 | - 14.50 | - 0.87 | | JM2601 (Near - month) | 1151.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.13 | Spot Market | Product | Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rebar | 3250.00 | - 30.00 | | Tianjin Rebar | 3220.00 | - 20.00 | | Guangzhou Rebar | 3280.00 | - 10.00 | | Tangshan Billet | 2970.00 | - 30.00 | | Shanghai Hot - Rolled Coil | 3370.00 | - 40.00 | | Hangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3440.00 | 30.00 | | Guangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3360.00 | - 50.00 | | Qingdao Super - Special Powder | 670.00 | 15.00 | | Another Iron Ore | 715.00 | 10.00 | | Ganqimaodu Coking Coal | 1180.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao First - Grade Coke | 1530.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao PB Iron Ore | 778.00 | 11.00 | Spread and Basis | Spread/Basis | Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 - RB2601 | - 70.00 | 6.00 | | HC2601 - HC2605 | - 6.00 | - 19.00 | | I2601 - I2605 | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | J2601 - J2605 | - 90.50 | - 3.00 | | JM2601 - JM2605 | - 42.00 | 5.00 | | Coil - Rebar Spread | 256.00 | 0.00 | | Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio | 3.92 | - 0.03 | | Coal - Coke Ratio | 1.43 | 0.00 | | Rebar Futures Margin | - 88.63 | - 19.30 | | Coking Futures Margin | 112.17 | 2.42 | | HC Basis (Main Contract) | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | RB Basis (Main Contract) | 160.00 | 9.00 | | I Basis (Main Contract) | 25.00 | 0.00 | | J Basis (Main Contract) | 37.16 | 29.50 | | JM Basis (Main Contract) | 59.00 | 24.00 | [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Black Industry Chain Industry Overview - The black industry chain has seen a significant reduction in the premium from anti-involution, with materials like polysilicon and lithium carbonate entering a period of expected adjustment, necessitating attention to steel demand in Q4 to avoid downward risks [1][2] - Iron ore has shown strong resistance to declines, but its sustainability is questionable if steel demand expectations are weak [1][5] - Coal production recovery post-inspection and the rapid increase in sea and Mongolian coal imports are critical factors to monitor [1][5] Key Points and Arguments Steel Market - Steel inventory is currently low, and the peak season demand has yet to be validated, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [1][9] - Price fluctuations are influenced by downstream replenishment willingness; lower prices encourage buying, while higher prices face resistance [1][9] - The forecast for rebar prices in Q3 and Q4 is between 3,100 to 3,400 RMB, with hot-rolled steel expected to be 100 RMB higher [3][25] Coal Market - The core driver for coking coal is policy regulation; without production limits, output may continue to rise, leading to potential oversupply [1][6] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is nearing its peak, with improving import volumes and domestic supply recovering to high levels, indicating potential price weakness ahead [1][7] - The Xinjiang overproduction issue is a significant concern for the coal market [1][8] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to remain balanced, with port inventories projected to rise to 150 million tons by year-end [3][23] - The equilibrium price for iron ore is estimated around 240 USD, with fluctuations expected based on demand conditions [12] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for Q4 is cautious, with potential for a weak market due to insufficient consumption drivers and weakening realities [1][28] - The steel export market is performing well, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic cost advantages, with a projected increase in exports of 1.3 to 1.5 million tons [20][21] - The focus for investment strategies should be on raw materials, particularly coking coal, as the market navigates through potential negative feedback loops [1][28][29] Additional Important Insights - The impact of recent policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies, is expected to stimulate some demand but overall internal demand growth remains limited [19] - The black industry chain's performance is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [13][17] - The market is currently characterized by a cautious approach, with a need for new expectations to drive price movements [1][30]

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend but poor operability on the disk [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term due to weak downstream demand, high iron - water levels, and market sentiment changes. The iron ore market will face increased downward pressure when iron - water production cuts turn from expectation to reality. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by policies and have large price fluctuations. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are also influenced by policies, with silicon iron following the trend of silicon manganese [2][3][4] Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Thread steel shows rising demand but falling production and rising inventory. Hot - rolled coil has improving demand, rising production, and accumulating inventory. The overall inventory level is low, and attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity near the military parade. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is in a strong and volatile state. Supply is strong with potential for seasonal growth, and port inventory is rising. Demand is supported by high iron - water levels in the short - term, but there are expectations of production cuts around the military parade. The downward pressure on the disk increases when production cuts become a reality [3] Coke - The coke futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. There are expectations of production restrictions in East China due to approaching events. The seventh price increase has improved coking profits and slightly increased daily production. Inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by policies with large short - term fluctuations [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. Coal mine production is increasing, and the spot auction market has a slightly higher non - transaction rate. Terminal inventory is flat, and production - end inventory has a slight increase. The price is affected by policies and is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. Demand is supported by high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices have a slight decline, and the price has limited downward space. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is affected by policies and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8]