1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak fundamental state with price upward pressure, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and future focus should be on actual demand and macro - policy trends [3]. - The current high price of iron ore is not sustainable due to weakening steel fundamentals, insufficient demand in the peak season, and pressure on steel mill profits [20]. - After the lifting of coking enterprise production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term, and it is not recommended to short - allocate coking coal [32]. - Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand [51]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and stable rigid demand [65]. - The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3143 yuan/ton, up from 3117 yuan/ton on September 4. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also had slight changes [4][7][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the parade, this week's pig iron production decreased significantly. After the parade, the iron ore price rebounded strongly, and the market believes that short - term production restrictions have limited impact on iron ore. The steel market has a weak fundamental state, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts such as the 01, 05, and 09 contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao also had slight changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.29 tons this week compared to last week. The 45 - port ore inventory increased by 62.3 tons week - on - week. The global and Australia - Brazil iron ore shipments increased [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The current high price of iron ore is due to the resumption of steel mills' production after the parade and the weakening of coking coal. However, this upward trend is not sustainable due to the weakening steel fundamentals [20]. Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 01 - 05 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also had certain changes [38][39]. - **Market Analysis**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term. The coking coal market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure, but the short - term surplus problem is not serious [32]. Ferroalloys - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed compared to the previous day. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from the previous day [52][56]. - **Market Analysis**: Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand. There is a possibility of production reduction due to falling profits [51]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1387 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.21% [66]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The rigid demand is stable, and the cost of raw salt and coal is temporarily stable [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1287 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.13% [94]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market shows weak supply and demand, with production and demand both affected by the parade. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, which may suppress prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are under pressure. However, the long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. The spot prices have declined, and the futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. But there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Iron ore production has decreased due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Thursday, steel production dropped significantly due to the parade, and apparent demand also declined. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, suppressing prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - Suggestion: Unilateral observation, and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate stages [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black sector changes rapidly. The fundamentals are poor in the short term, with increased supply and weak terminal demand. Inventory is high, and prices are under pressure. The long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - Suggestion: Short - sell on rallies [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot price of port metallurgical coke has dropped by 30, and the coking coal auction has declined with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. However, there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Suggestion: Close existing short positions gradually and consider batch - layout of medium - term long positions [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore production has dropped to 11290 tons per day due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways observation, close futures-cash arbitrage positions [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short on rallies [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider partial profit-taking for existing short positions, stay on the sidelines for non-participants [8] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market was weak on Monday, with the black sector leading the decline. Steel spot prices and trading volumes both dropped, and the futures-cash basis widened. The valuation of steel futures has been repaired to a neutral range, but the near-month contracts are under pressure [2]. - The short-term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are mainly under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance [5]. - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 1st, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3165.00 yuan/ton, 3314.00 yuan/ton, 743.00 yuan/ton, 1691.00 yuan/ton, and 1167.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of -10.00 yuan/ton, -45.00 yuan/ton, -20.50 yuan/ton, -54.00 yuan/ton, and -32.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3115.00 yuan/ton, 3303.00 yuan/ton, 766.00 yuan/ton, 1594.50 yuan/ton, and 1118.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 8.00 yuan/ton, -53.00 yuan/ton, -21.00 yuan/ton, -58.50 yuan/ton, and -38.00 yuan/ton [1]. Steel - Steel supply remains at a relatively high level. The short-term production restriction may have a temporary impact on hot metal, but the duration will not be long. Demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly [2]. - The steel futures price has been further revised down to between the electric furnace loss and the blast furnace cost. The basis has widened, and the premium has improved. The valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short-term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The supply continues to increase, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined [5]. - The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance. Short-term oversold may lead to price rebounds, and existing short positions can consider partial profit-taking [5]. Iron Ore - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently weak, with futures prices falling and spot prices following suit. The market is waiting to see if there will be a mismatch in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [2] - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are not good, and prices are mainly under pressure. [3] - The eighth round of coke price increase has been temporarily shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak in the short - term. [5] - The iron ore price is supported by the pre - holiday restocking cycle under high iron - making production, but supply increments in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] 3) Summary by Directory Steel - Futures prices of steel contracts are weak, with the near - month contracts moving towards the weak spot prices. The price center has dropped to between electric - arc furnace losses and blast - furnace costs, and the basis has widened significantly. [2] - On the macro level, there is a policy vacuum, and attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming parade on production and market sentiment. [2] - In terms of industry reality, steel supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly both on a monthly and annual basis. [2] - Suggestion: Stop losses on short - term long positions in steel futures and wait for opportunities. The cash - and - carry arbitrage is in the profit - taking window. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly follow the sector. [3] - The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply continues to increase, and it is difficult to have large - scale production cuts in the short - term. [3] - Terminal demand may not improve significantly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and the risk of a decline in steel - mill production is increasing, which will impact the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. [3] - Suggestion: Sell at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The eighth round of coke price increase has been shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. [5] - The futures market of coking coal and coke is weak, and the black - chain index has fallen. The market is mainly concerned about the verification of steel demand during the peak season. [5] - The supply of coal mines and coking enterprises is still restricted, but due to the difficulty of price transmission downstream and the weakening of thermal - coal prices after the peak season, coking coal and coke prices are also falling. [5] - Suggestion: Industrial customers should pay attention to hedging opportunities after price increases. [7] Iron Ore - The black - metal sector is oscillating, and the influence of the near - month contracts on the far - month contracts has decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming meetings on iron - making production. [6] - In September, the pre - holiday restocking cycle will support the iron - ore price, but the expected supply increment in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] - Suggestion: The support level of the 01 - contract iron - ore price is still valid. [6] Market Data on August 29 Futures Market | Contract | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2601 (Far - month) | 3160.00 | - 22.00 | - 0.69 | | HC2605 (Far - month) | 3352.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.03 | | I2605 (Far - month) | 763.50 | 5.00 | 0.66 | | J2605 (Far - month) | 1733.50 | - 9.50 | - 0.55 | | JM2605 (Far - month) | 1193.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.08 | | RB2510 (Near - month) | 3090.00 | - 26.00 | - 0.83 | | HC2601 (Near - month) | 3346.00 | - 16.00 | - 0.48 | | I2601 (Near - month) | 787.50 | 6.00 | 0.77 | | J2601 (Near - month) | 1643.00 | - 14.50 | - 0.87 | | JM2601 (Near - month) | 1151.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.13 | Spot Market | Product | Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rebar | 3250.00 | - 30.00 | | Tianjin Rebar | 3220.00 | - 20.00 | | Guangzhou Rebar | 3280.00 | - 10.00 | | Tangshan Billet | 2970.00 | - 30.00 | | Shanghai Hot - Rolled Coil | 3370.00 | - 40.00 | | Hangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3440.00 | 30.00 | | Guangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3360.00 | - 50.00 | | Qingdao Super - Special Powder | 670.00 | 15.00 | | Another Iron Ore | 715.00 | 10.00 | | Ganqimaodu Coking Coal | 1180.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao First - Grade Coke | 1530.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao PB Iron Ore | 778.00 | 11.00 | Spread and Basis | Spread/Basis | Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 - RB2601 | - 70.00 | 6.00 | | HC2601 - HC2605 | - 6.00 | - 19.00 | | I2601 - I2605 | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | J2601 - J2605 | - 90.50 | - 3.00 | | JM2601 - JM2605 | - 42.00 | 5.00 | | Coil - Rebar Spread | 256.00 | 0.00 | | Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio | 3.92 | - 0.03 | | Coal - Coke Ratio | 1.43 | 0.00 | | Rebar Futures Margin | - 88.63 | - 19.30 | | Coking Futures Margin | 112.17 | 2.42 | | HC Basis (Main Contract) | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | RB Basis (Main Contract) | 160.00 | 9.00 | | I Basis (Main Contract) | 25.00 | 0.00 | | J Basis (Main Contract) | 37.16 | 29.50 | | JM Basis (Main Contract) | 59.00 | 24.00 | [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Black Industry Chain Industry Overview - The black industry chain has seen a significant reduction in the premium from anti-involution, with materials like polysilicon and lithium carbonate entering a period of expected adjustment, necessitating attention to steel demand in Q4 to avoid downward risks [1][2] - Iron ore has shown strong resistance to declines, but its sustainability is questionable if steel demand expectations are weak [1][5] - Coal production recovery post-inspection and the rapid increase in sea and Mongolian coal imports are critical factors to monitor [1][5] Key Points and Arguments Steel Market - Steel inventory is currently low, and the peak season demand has yet to be validated, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [1][9] - Price fluctuations are influenced by downstream replenishment willingness; lower prices encourage buying, while higher prices face resistance [1][9] - The forecast for rebar prices in Q3 and Q4 is between 3,100 to 3,400 RMB, with hot-rolled steel expected to be 100 RMB higher [3][25] Coal Market - The core driver for coking coal is policy regulation; without production limits, output may continue to rise, leading to potential oversupply [1][6] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is nearing its peak, with improving import volumes and domestic supply recovering to high levels, indicating potential price weakness ahead [1][7] - The Xinjiang overproduction issue is a significant concern for the coal market [1][8] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to remain balanced, with port inventories projected to rise to 150 million tons by year-end [3][23] - The equilibrium price for iron ore is estimated around 240 USD, with fluctuations expected based on demand conditions [12] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for Q4 is cautious, with potential for a weak market due to insufficient consumption drivers and weakening realities [1][28] - The steel export market is performing well, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic cost advantages, with a projected increase in exports of 1.3 to 1.5 million tons [20][21] - The focus for investment strategies should be on raw materials, particularly coking coal, as the market navigates through potential negative feedback loops [1][28][29] Additional Important Insights - The impact of recent policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies, is expected to stimulate some demand but overall internal demand growth remains limited [19] - The black industry chain's performance is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [13][17] - The market is currently characterized by a cautious approach, with a need for new expectations to drive price movements [1][30]

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend but poor operability on the disk [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term due to weak downstream demand, high iron - water levels, and market sentiment changes. The iron ore market will face increased downward pressure when iron - water production cuts turn from expectation to reality. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by policies and have large price fluctuations. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are also influenced by policies, with silicon iron following the trend of silicon manganese [2][3][4] Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Thread steel shows rising demand but falling production and rising inventory. Hot - rolled coil has improving demand, rising production, and accumulating inventory. The overall inventory level is low, and attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity near the military parade. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is in a strong and volatile state. Supply is strong with potential for seasonal growth, and port inventory is rising. Demand is supported by high iron - water levels in the short - term, but there are expectations of production cuts around the military parade. The downward pressure on the disk increases when production cuts become a reality [3] Coke - The coke futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. There are expectations of production restrictions in East China due to approaching events. The seventh price increase has improved coking profits and slightly increased daily production. Inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by policies with large short - term fluctuations [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. Coal mine production is increasing, and the spot auction market has a slightly higher non - transaction rate. Terminal inventory is flat, and production - end inventory has a slight increase. The price is affected by policies and is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. Demand is supported by high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices have a slight decline, and the price has limited downward space. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is affected by policies and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a temporary stabilization after a period of volatility, influenced by the strong performance of the equity market and the central bank's liquidity support [1][4][8]. Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose from 1.72% on August 15 to 1.7875% on August 18, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards equities [1]. - On August 20, the bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points in the morning session [1]. - However, by the afternoon of August 20, the yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 2.15% compared to the morning, reflecting ongoing volatility [2]. Central Bank Actions - The central bank has been actively providing liquidity support, conducting a 616 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 20, maintaining a stable operation rate of 1.40% [4]. - This liquidity provision is seen as a protective measure for the bond market amid concerns of a "negative feedback" loop from potential large-scale redemptions [5][7]. Investor Behavior - Institutional investors have shown a shift in behavior, with funds moving from selling to buying bonds, particularly the 10-year government bonds, indicating a potential change in market sentiment [5]. - Despite recent volatility, bond funds have remained relatively stable, with net subscription indices staying within a manageable range, suggesting resilience in the face of market fluctuations [6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current sentiment in the bond market remains fragile, heavily influenced by the performance of the equity market, which is experiencing a strong rally [8]. - Analysts suggest that while the bond market is under pressure from equity market dynamics, it is not expected to enter a bear market due to the overall supportive monetary policy environment [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices and inflation expectations, leading to significant adjustments in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, especially for secondary perpetual bonds [3]. - It's too early to talk about negative feedback, with a very low probability. The market's ability to respond has improved, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent negative feedback [4][6]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and is intensifying. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but not continuous and significant ones. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Market Review: Sharp Correction, Widening Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 1.1 Market Performance - The credit bond market had a sharp correction this week, with credit spreads widening. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Yields of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds rose more than 10bp, with a 14.5bp decline in 10Y secondary perpetual bonds. Credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds widened more, while those of some medium - and long - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds slightly narrowed [25]. 1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell Massively - Insurance companies continued to strongly allocate credit bonds, with a net purchase of 125.63 billion yuan this week, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net purchase of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with a similar increase compared to the previous week [40]. - Funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, reaching 22.578 billion yuan. The net sales of bonds within 5Y were 12.738 billion yuan, and those over 5Y were 7.474 billion yuan [40]. 1.3 Low - Rating Transaction Proportion Declines - The proportion of transactions with a remaining maturity of over 3 years for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, remaining at a high level. The proportion of low - rating transactions decreased, with a 1 - percentage - point decline in urban investment bonds with AA(2) and below, a 1 - percentage - point decline in industrial bonds with AA and below, and a 3 - percentage - point decline in secondary perpetual bonds with AA and below [49][53]. 2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - The market adjusted due to the impact of anti - involution policies on commodity prices and inflation expectations. Indicators such as the term structure of interest rate swaps showed a change in inflation expectations [57][61]. - There is no need to worry about negative feedback because the market's response ability has improved, and bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent it. The asset shortage pattern persists, and interest rates are unlikely to have continuous and significant adjustments. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [4][7]. 2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing - In July, non - financial credit bond financing was good, with a net financing of 347.9 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of July in the previous two years [93]. 3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.1 Focus on High - Grade Secondary Perpetual Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - For short - term secondary perpetual bonds, the price - to - value ratio is positive, while for medium - and long - term ones, it is negative. It is recommended that high - grade trading strategies focus on secondary perpetual bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies focus on urban investment bonds. The price - to - value ratio of short - term AAA secondary capital bonds to medium - term notes remains positive, and that of long - term ones fluctuates around 0 [100]. - The price - to - value ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes is positive, and that of long - term low - grade ones has rebounded rapidly, reaching the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have an advantage in terms of bond selection scope [102]. 3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon bond selection, general credit has a wider bond selection space [106]. 3.3 First - Level Issuance Statistics - No specific content provided in the output for further summary 3.4 Second - Level Valuation Change Details - No specific content provided in the output for further summary

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the bond market may be nearing its end in the short term. The central bank's supportive attitude remains beneficial to the bond market. In the long term, the continuous transformation of pricing logic and macro - narrative requires further deepening of supply - side policies and marginal changes in demand to clarify market risk preferences and the direction of the bond market [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock and Commodity Rise, Tightening of Funds, Bear - Steep Curve - From July 21 - 25, the bond market continued its head - wind situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment supported the strength of the equity and commodity markets, diverting funds from the bond market. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yajiang investment strengthened the broad - credit expectation, suppressing the long - end performance. In the second half of the week, the unexpected tightening of the funds led to partial redemptions and bond - selling by funds and wealth management products, causing concerns about "negative feedback." However, on Friday, with the central bank's timely support, the bond market sentiment improved [1][7]. - On a daily basis, the bond market was weak throughout the week. By July 25, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 3.5, 7.9, 6.7, and 8.4 BP respectively compared to July 18, with a steeper bear - steep curve [7]. 2. Roller - Coaster of Funds and Timely Support from the Central Bank - This week, the funds situation fluctuated, tightening in the second half. The large liquidity demand (such as MLF redemption, large - scale reverse - repurchase maturity, over - trillion - yuan certificate - of - deposit maturity, and treasury bond issuance) and the central bank's net redemption in the first half of the week increased the funds demand. The overnight funds rate rose to a relatively high level since June, and the secondary prices of certificates of deposit increased slightly in the second half of the week [2][10][12]. - On July 25, the central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase injection supported the cross - month liquidity. The weekly average of funds rates fluctuated with a relatively stable mean. The funds stratification remained at a low level, with mixed weekly average changes. The secondary yields of certificates of deposit increased across the board [12]. 3. Are the "Three Concerns" Temporarily Resolved? 3.1. From Stock - Bond to Commodity - Bond: Is the Market on "Pause"? - The recent rise in the market is mainly based on policy expectations. This week, the "commodity - bond" linkage was strengthened, with the commodity futures market rising due to infrastructure expectations and supply - side contraction expectations. However, the callback of "double - coke" and other varieties at the end of the week indicates that policy pricing may be nearing its end. The sustainability of the "commodity - bond" linkage depends on policy implementation and improvement in physical supply - demand [20][23]. - Whether policies can improve the fundamentals will be a key factor affecting the direction of risk assets. Additional policies may support the performance of risk assets [23]. 3.2. Liquidity: "Tightness" and "Stability" before Crossing the Month - The unexpected tightening of funds may be due to the central bank's net redemption in the first half of the week, the diversion of bond - market funds by the rise of the stock and commodity markets, and the increased redemption pressure in the bond market [3][24]. - With the central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase injection on Friday and the approaching Politburo meeting, the central bank is likely to maintain neutral operations, and the cross - month funds may be stable but not overly loose [24]. 3.3. Institutional Behavior: Redemption Pressure Temporarily Eased - Recently, the redemption pressure has increased due to the large fluctuations in fund net values since July, the inflow of funds into the equity and commodity markets, and the deepening of the adjustment in the bond market [25]. - However, the possibility of the bond - market redemption evolving into a "negative feedback" is low. The increase in redemption pressure is mainly reflected in the significant increase in fund selling, while the scale and yield of wealth management products remain relatively stable. With the central bank's support on Friday, the bond market showed signs of stabilization [26]. 4. Future Focus of the Bond Market - Monetary policy: The central bank will maintain a supportive attitude, and there is no need to worry too much about liquidity. In the short term, the urgency for interest - rate cuts is reduced, and the downward space for the short - end is limited if the central bank's injection remains moderate [36]. - Fundamental aspects: The upward trend needs to be continuously consolidated. In the short term, focus on whether the linkage effect of the stock, bond, and commodity markets weakens, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [36]. - Pay attention to the policy signals from the July Politburo meeting, which is important for guiding the macro - policy adjustment [36]. 5. Next Week's Key Data to Watch - Next week, important data include Germany's and the EU's Q2 GDP, the US's July ADP employment, Q2 GDP, PCE price index, federal funds target rate, and China's July official manufacturing PMI, among others [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium to long term; double - coking is expected to have wide - range oscillations; iron ore prices are expected to have support at the bottom; ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3][8][12][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: In May 2025, automobile production was 2.642 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, automobile production was 12.757 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. In May, air - conditioner retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. In July 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin hot - rolled coils and Shanghai threaded steel decreased by 10 yuan [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly last night. This week, blast furnaces resumed production, and overall steel production increased. Hot - rolled apparent demand increased, while threaded - steel apparent demand decreased slightly. Steel is still destocking, but the destocking speed of threaded steel has slowed down. It is expected that apparent demand will continue to weaken with the arrival of the off - season. The funds of downstream construction sites have decreased, and steel export data has rebounded. Blast - furnace production has peaked, but profits are high, and some blast furnaces may resume production. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, with a short - term small rebound. After entering the off - season, contradictions may accumulate, triggering a negative feedback [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, steel maintains a bottom - oscillating trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct a 10 - 01 reverse spread when the price is high; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] Double - Coking - **Related Information**: Tangshan steel mills plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on June 23. The average national profit per ton of coke is - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts are provided [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Recently, some coal mines have reduced production, while others have resumed production. The price of coking coal in some mines has rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure remains. This week, pig - iron production increased slightly, but steel mills still maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The fundamentals of double - coking have slightly improved, and short - term disk games are intense. The Middle - East geopolitical situation may have an indirect impact on international coal prices, with a greater impact on sentiment than on substance. Short - term disturbances increase, and disk games intensify, with wide - range oscillations expected [8] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly due to wide - range oscillations; for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 19, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 6.8% month - on - month. The spot prices of Qingdao Port PB powder, super - special powder, and card powder are provided [11] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated narrowly last night. The core factors driving the market are weak. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and non - mainstream mines have rebounded rapidly. On the demand side, pig - iron production increased slightly this week, and terminal demand maintains resilience. The market is concerned about whether the weak off - season reality can be continuously traded. Compared with last year, the current black - metal valuation is low, and the recent decline shows a small positive - spread trend. It is expected that there will be support at the bottom of the ore price [12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is support at the bottom; for arbitrage, a 9/1 inter - period positive spread is mainly recommended; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [13] Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 19th, the price of Gabon blocks at Tianjin Port was about 36.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - carbonate was 32.8 - 33 yuan/ton - degree. The June silicon - manganese pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group is 5650 yuan/ton [15] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, on the 19th, the spot price in some regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, some factories in Qinghai have new overhauls, and this week's production is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the steel apparent - demand data is better than expected, driving the overall black - metal to stabilize and rebound, but the sustainability may be weak. Ferrosilicon is affected by energy - price fluctuations and oscillates at the bottom. For silicomanganese, on the 19th, manganese ore was stable, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply is also expected to decline slightly, and the demand rebound is not expected to be sustainable. The port manganese ore oscillates weakly at a low level. The steel - procurement price has increased, and there is some support, but the demand is limited, continuing to oscillate at the bottom [15][16] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options when the price is high [17]