Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - Due to the escalation of tariff games and heightened expectations of monetary easing, as well as the influence of risk aversion, the bond market has risen significantly. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, and the Treasury bond futures market may be strong. However, as bond yields approach the previous low of the year and the downward trend of capital interest rates has stalled, it may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies, which may bring fluctuations to the bond market [1][6][13] Summary by Directory 1. Tariff Game Escalation, Rising Expectations of Monetary Easing - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan, increasing tariffs on China by 34%, with cumulative tariffs potentially exceeding 60%. China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports in response. The tariff game and trade friction may enter a deeper stage [1] - In the previous round of trade frictions in 2018, China's exports to the US declined rapidly. This time, with higher tariff increases, short - term net exports are likely to fall. In Q1 2025, the contribution rate of net exports to China's GDP reached 45.8%. Under the pressure of external demand, the market's expectation of looser monetary policy has increased. Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts may be relatively mature, while interest rate cuts still need fundamental signals [2] 2. Risk Aversion Drives the Stock - Bond Seesaw to Favor the Bond Market - The current trade game has entered a deeper stage, and there is great uncertainty about the actual implementation of tariffs, negotiation conditions, and time, which may suppress risk appetite in the short term. The stock market declined significantly today, which is favorable for the bond market from the perspective of the stock - bond seesaw. In the medium term, domestic policies are sufficient, and the domestic economy has resilience, but the short - term decline in global risk appetite will continue to support the bond market [6] 3. Capital Interest Rates Have Not Declined Further, Need to Pay Attention to the Impact of Subsequent Growth - Stabilizing Policies on the Bond Market Rhythm - Since early April, capital interest rates and certificate of deposit rates have declined, which has boosted the bond market. However, the decline of capital interest rates has stalled. On April 7, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan in the open market, and the 7 - day capital interest rate of depository institutions was around 1.75%, and the non - bank capital interest rate was around 1.8%, not lower than before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [7] - As of April 7, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has dropped to around 1.64%, only 4BP away from the January low. Currently, the decline in bond yields is mainly due to risk aversion and easing expectations. Considering the short - term pressure of RMB depreciation, it is uncertain whether capital interest rates can decline further. As bond yields approach the previous low, a 35 - 40BP interest rate cut is gradually being priced in, but the policy rhythm is still uncertain. Fiscal policies are likely to be strengthened in Q2, and subsequent capital interest rate trends and growth - stabilizing policies will determine the bond market rhythm [8] 4. Outlook for Treasury Bond Futures - Affected by expectations of monetary easing, risk aversion, and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed up today. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, but the lack of further decline in capital interest rates may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and bank - to - bank capital. Subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies may bring fluctuations to the bond market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions in the short term and stop profits in a timely manner if capital interest rates rise marginally [13]

你的思想和智慧不是在交易过程中体现的，而是在你的交易体系和交易计划中体现的。 如果在交易时，你还有时间去思考，那就已经意味着这笔交易可 能要失败了。因为你已经把这笔交易加入了你的情绪，而人的情绪也是人的弱点，尤其是交易时的情绪。 ——笔记哥《应对》 早盘债市延续昨日偏谨慎情绪，10Y国债利率基本平开在1.74%后震荡上至1.7675%附近。上午公布的1-2月出口偏强（增长2.3%）、进口偏弱（下降 8.4%），国债一级发行结果偏弱。股市震荡微跌，债市继续消化昨日潘行长表述（"货币政策取向是一种对状态的描述"），10Y国债利率大幅上行至 1.79%附近。 -------------------------- 今日债市上演《听妈妈的话》续集，继续对去年12月以来抢跑的"货币宽松预期"进行修正。昨日潘行长讲话对降息预期的影响力，可与美联储点阵图相媲 美。不同之处大概在于点阵图是数字、只需"算"，而讲话是艺术、还要"品"。 比如说，"研究降低结构性货币政策工具利率"，到底是不是在说短期内OMO降息没戏呢？再比如说，"对一些不合理的容易削减货币政策传导的市场行为 加强规范"，债市多头心跳漏拍：到底是不是在点我呢？ 【笔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a downward adjustment driven by multiple factors, including tightening liquidity, central bank policies, strong stock market performance, and increasing redemption pressures from investment products [2][3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 7, the bond futures market saw collective declines, with the 30-year main contract down by 1.31%, the 10-year down by 0.51%, the 5-year down by 0.31%, and the 2-year down by 0.13% [1][2]. - The previous day also recorded declines across the same contracts, indicating a consistent downward trend in bond prices [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Adjustment - The tightening of liquidity is a primary driver, with high funding costs and an inverted yield curve discouraging institutions from leveraging [2][3]. - The central bank's focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and managing debt market risks has led to a more conservative liquidity management approach, dampening market expectations for monetary easing [2][3]. - The strong performance of the stock market, driven by a technology bull market, has created a "see-saw" effect, putting additional pressure on the bond market [2]. - There are signs of increased redemptions from investment products, raising concerns about negative feedback loops in the bond market [2][7]. Group 3: Redemption Trends - Since the beginning of the year, bond yields have risen, leading to an inversion between short-term funding rates and long-term bond yields, reflecting investor concerns about liquidity [5]. - Recent data indicates that short and medium-term bond investment products have experienced slight declines, reminiscent of a previous small-scale redemption wave [6]. - Analysts suggest that while there are signs of redemption pressure, it remains manageable for now, but further adjustments in the bond market could exacerbate these pressures [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall monetary policy remains unchanged, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts, which could influence the long-term trend of the bond market [9]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face adjustment pressure in the spring, stabilizing between 1.8% and 2.0%, with a likelihood of dropping below 1.6% by year-end [9]. - Future market conditions may resemble a slow bull market, with increased volatility anticipated [9][10]. - Investment opportunities may arise from market fluctuations and yield increases, while risks could stem from potential adjustments in monetary policy if the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [9][10].