Group 1 - The EU is preparing to implement capital controls and tariffs against Russia to counter Hungary's opposition to sanctions [1] - The European Commission has informed member states that most sanctions, including the freezing of €200 billion in Russian state assets, can be transferred to different legal bases to bypass Hungary's veto [1] - The EU aims to maintain economic pressure on Russia while pursuing diplomatic efforts for a proposed ceasefire agreement and direct peace talks with Ukraine [1] Group 2 - In January, the EU imposed tariffs on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, showcasing how existing sanctions can be transformed into trade measures [2] - The European Commission plans to propose legislation next month to ban new contracts for Russian natural gas and spot market contracts, aiming for a complete phase-out by 2027 [2] - Concerns have been raised by EU diplomats regarding potential legal disputes arising from banning Russian gas without formal sanctions, prompting calls for legally sound new sanctions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is preparing to implement capital controls and tariffs to maintain sanctions against Russia, particularly in response to Hungary's potential veto on extending economic sanctions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Sanctions and Economic Measures - The EU has previously imposed economic sanctions on Russia as a response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - A significant portion of the sanctions, including the freezing of €200 billion in Russian state assets, may be transferred to a different legal basis to circumvent Hungary's veto [1] - The proposed workaround requires only a majority agreement from EU member states to extend the sanctions [1] Group 2: Proposed Trade Measures - Capital controls are being considered to prevent cash inflow into Russia [1] - Tariffs are also mentioned as one of the trade measures that the European Commission has discussed in recent weeks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bank of Ukraine is considering a shift from the US dollar to the euro as a reference currency for the hryvnia due to increasing ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation [1][3]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Policy - The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyi, indicated that the strengthening role of the EU in Ukraine's defense and the volatility in global markets are prompting a reassessment of the reference currency for the hryvnia [1]. - The euro's trading share has been gradually increasing in various sectors, although the rise has been modest so far [3]. - Ukraine has historically used the US dollar as a reference currency since the introduction of the hryvnia in 1996, but the ongoing conflict has led to significant economic challenges, including a forced devaluation of the hryvnia [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The transition to a managed floating exchange rate system in October 2023 is based on the US dollar, which is used to measure foreign exchange interventions [4]. - Economic recovery in Ukraine is projected to accelerate to a growth rate of 3.7-3.9% over the next two years, driven by closer ties with Europe and a revival in investment and consumption activities [4]. - The National Bank of Ukraine anticipates receiving $55 billion in external financing this year to cover budget deficits and reserve public finances for the coming years, as future aid amounts may decline [4].

以下文章来源于财联社 ，作者牛占林 财联社 . 财联社是上海报业集团主管主办，定位资本市场报道财经通讯社，以"准确、快速、权威、专业"为准则，提供7x24小时金融信息服务。 来源|财联社 4月15日在美国政府发动全面贸易战之后，全球金融市场风雨飘摇，但未曾想到的是，俄罗斯卢布成为了今年全球表现最佳的货币，涨幅甚至远远超 过了黄金这一传统避险资产。 数据显示，今年迄今，俄罗斯卢布兑美元在场外交易中上涨了38%。美元因美国总统特朗普不断升级的关税战而面临巨大压力，卢布却因许多俄罗斯 独有的因素而受到支撑，其中包括创纪录的高利率。 当然，美国对俄罗斯政策的缓和迹象重新激发了卢布在套利交易中的吸引力。Istar资本研究与投资组合管理主管Iskander Lutsko表示，尽管制裁风 险仍然存在，外国投资者仍在转向那些与俄罗斯保持良好关系的国家，以获取高收益的卢布资产。 Lutsko补充说，除此之外，俄罗斯企业渴望利用成本低得多的人民币贷款，为成本高昂的本币债务进行再融资，这推动了更多的外币兑换成卢布。 与此同时，美元指数跌至六个月低点，因为特朗普在关税政策上的最新反复无常，加剧了投资者对美国资产的不安情绪，并削弱了美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European credit rating agency Scope warns that the United States may face a credit downgrade if ongoing trade wars undermine trust in the dollar or if extreme measures, such as capital controls, are implemented by Trump [1] Group 1 - Continuous trade wars could weaken confidence in the US dollar [1] - Potential extreme measures by Trump, including capital controls, could lead to a credit downgrade [1]