Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend in the first three quarters of 2025, with effective policies supporting employment and economic stability [3]. GDP Performance - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [5][6]. Sector Contributions - Agricultural value added grew by 3.6% year-on-year [6]. - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year [6]. - The service sector's value added rose by 5.4% year-on-year [6]. Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 365.877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [7]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371.535 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5%. However, excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 3.0% [7]. Trade and Price Levels - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 336.078 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [8].

Trade Performance - China's foreign trade maintains a stable and positive development trend, with increased efforts needed in the fourth quarter to stabilize foreign trade [1] - In the first three quarters of the year, China's total import and export value of goods trade reached 33610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [2] - Among them, exports reached 19950 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71% [2] - Imports reached 13660 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 02% [2] - In September alone, import and export value reached 4040 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]

Trade Performance - China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year-over-year increase for the first three quarters [1] - Exports amounted to 19.95 trillion yuan, showing a 7.1% year-over-year increase [1] - Imports totaled 13.66 trillion yuan, a 0.2% year-over-year decrease [1] - In September alone, total trade volume was 4.04 trillion yuan, an 8% year-over-year increase [1]

海关总署：8月当月，中国进出口3.87万亿元，增长3.5%。其中，出口2.3万亿元，增长4.8%；进口1.57万亿元，增长1.7%。今年前8个月，中国货物贸易延续平稳增长态势，进出口总值29.57万亿元，同比增长3.5%。其中，对共建“一带一路”国家进出口15.3万亿元，增长5.4%，占进出口总值的51.7%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soda ash and float glass are currently at historically low levels, with high risks associated with short - selling. Given strong macro - expectations and the "anti - involution" backdrop, the price centers of soda ash and glass are expected to gradually rise. It is not advisable to chase short positions at low prices. Instead, one can wait for long - entry opportunities when prices break upwards [14][84]. - For soda ash, although production and inventory remain high and demand recovery is slow, increasing exports may support prices. For glass, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand is slow, and high production and inventory levels continue to exert pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Report 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of soda ash was 1167 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week and 79 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1267 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [13][19]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [13][30]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][44]. - **Demand**: In August, the start - up rate and production of float glass increased, driving short - term soda ash demand. However, the increase in float - glass inventory at the end of August may have a negative feedback effect on soda ash demand. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and the inventory pressure was low. If the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [13][58]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][69]. - **Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [13][64]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [19]. - **Difference between Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of September 2, 2025, the price difference between dense and light soda ash in North China was 100 yuan/ton, and in East China was 120 yuan/ton, showing little change and remaining within a reasonable range [22]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of soda ash futures was - 80 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [25]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [30][33]. - **Raw Material Costs**: As of September 2, 2025, the price of raw salt in Northwest China remained unchanged from the previous week, and the price of动力煤 changed little, with a slight decline in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia changed little from the previous week and remained at a relatively low level year - on - year. These factors have little impact on soda ash prices [36][39]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Production**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [44]. - **Production of Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of August 29, 2025, the production of dense soda ash was 38.32 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons from the previous week, and the production of light soda ash was 33.59 tons, a decrease of 1.03 tons from the previous week. With fewer maintenance plans in September, production is expected to remain high [47]. - **Soda Ash Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of soda ash in August first increased and then decreased. With fewer planned maintenance enterprises in September, the start - up rate is expected to remain at the current level [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The increase in float - glass production drove short - term soda ash demand, but the increase in float - glass inventory may have a negative impact. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and if the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [58][61]. - **Soda Ash Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [64]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [69]. 3.2 Glass Report 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous week and 115 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1134 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [83][89]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [83][97]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [83][108]. - **Demand**: As of August 29, 2025, the start - up rate of Low - e glass was 48.10%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the beginning of the month. As of September 1, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, an increase of 0.85 days from the beginning of the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [83][113]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [83][126]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [89]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of glass futures was - 99 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [92]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [97]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Start - up Rate**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [108]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass increased slightly, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. The real - estate transaction volume improved slightly but remained relatively low compared to historical levels [113][119]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [126].

Group 1 - The EIA weekly data report indicates a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels, the lowest level since June 20, 2025, compared to market expectations of a decrease of 1.863 million barrels and a previous decrease of 6.014 million barrels [1] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 776,000 barrels to 40.42 million barrels, marking the largest increase since May 23, 2025 [1] - EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 1.786 million barrels, the largest decline since June 20, 2025, against market expectations of a decrease of 885,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 2.343 million barrels [1] Group 2 - As of August 22, 2025, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 1,343.9 million barrels per day, the highest level since April 25, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.15 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, were 6.234 million barrels per day, a decrease of 263,000 barrels per day from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 562,000 barrels per day to 3.81 million barrels per day [1] Group 4 - As of August 28, 2025, WTI crude oil is reported at $63.74 per barrel, down 0.19%, while Brent crude oil is at $67.06 per barrel, down 0.21% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. interest rates and the potential benefits and risks of interest rate cuts, particularly in the context of Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and its chairman Powell [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rates and Economic Impact - Trump has been vocal about the need for lower interest rates, arguing that current rates are too high and impose significant economic costs, estimating a $360 billion annual cost for each percentage point of high interest rates [5][7]. - High interest rates lead to reduced borrowing and spending, which can result in job losses and lower economic growth, as evidenced by the disappointing non-farm payroll data [8][10]. - Lowering interest rates could stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper, which is crucial for consumer spending and business expansion [7][11]. Group 2: Global Trade and Currency Dynamics - A reduction in interest rates could weaken the dollar, making U.S. exports more competitive while also mitigating the impact of tariffs on consumers [10][11]. - However, a weaker dollar could also lead to a stronger yuan, potentially harming China's export competitiveness and accelerating the shift of low-end manufacturing to Southeast Asia [21][23]. Group 3: Opportunities and Risks for Emerging Markets - Historically, U.S. rate cuts have led to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, which could benefit markets like China's A-shares [19]. - The influx of capital could also create asset bubbles and financial volatility, particularly in sectors like technology [21][24]. - To mitigate risks, China could enhance its import reserves and support high-tech industries while upgrading its manufacturing capabilities to counteract the effects of a weaker dollar [23][24].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in Anhui Province is stable in the first seven months of the year [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,393.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1] Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales of limited enterprises grew by 5.5%, with significant growth in cultural office supplies (53.7%), communication equipment (52.2%), and household appliances (21.2%) [1] - The online retail sales of limited wholesale and retail enterprises increased by 22.1% [1] Foreign Trade - The total import and export volume reached 543.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] - Exports amounted to 364.73 billion yuan, growing by 13.8%, while imports reached 178.68 billion yuan, increasing by 14.8% [1] - Trade with the EU grew by 17.3%, and trade with ASEAN increased by 35.7% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.7% in the first seven months [2] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 5.5%, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw declines of 0.3% and 6.5%, respectively [2] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8%, with notable growth in railway (14.4%) and road transport (8.1%) [2] High-Tech and Green Energy Investment - High-tech service industry investment surged by 25.3%, with information services growing by 78.2% and R&D services by 85.7% [2] - Investment in green energy saw significant increases, with hydropower and solar energy investments growing by 113.8% and 84.6%, respectively [2]

Trade Performance - China's July exports increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB terms [1] - China's July imports increased by 4.8% year-on-year in RMB terms [1] - China's July exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding expectations [1] - China's July imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in USD terms, also exceeding expectations [1] - China's trade surplus narrowed to 705.1 billion RMB in July [1] - China's trade surplus was 98.24 billion USD in July [1] Overall Trade Trend - In the first seven months of the year, China's total import and export value reached 25.7 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - In July, total import and export value reached 3.91 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1] - July exports reached 2.31 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - July imports reached 1.6 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1]

Overall Trade Performance - China's total import and export value reached 257 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, with the growth rate accelerating by 06 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - In July, total import and export value reached 391 trillion yuan, an increase of 67% [1] Export Performance - In July, exports reached 231 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% [1] Import Performance - In July, imports reached 16 trillion yuan, an increase of 48% [1]