Group 1 - The EIA weekly data report indicates a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels, the lowest level since June 20, 2025, compared to market expectations of a decrease of 1.863 million barrels and a previous decrease of 6.014 million barrels [1] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 776,000 barrels to 40.42 million barrels, marking the largest increase since May 23, 2025 [1] - EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 1.786 million barrels, the largest decline since June 20, 2025, against market expectations of a decrease of 885,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 2.343 million barrels [1] Group 2 - As of August 22, 2025, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 1,343.9 million barrels per day, the highest level since April 25, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.15 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, were 6.234 million barrels per day, a decrease of 263,000 barrels per day from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 562,000 barrels per day to 3.81 million barrels per day [1] Group 4 - As of August 28, 2025, WTI crude oil is reported at $63.74 per barrel, down 0.19%, while Brent crude oil is at $67.06 per barrel, down 0.21% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. interest rates and the potential benefits and risks of interest rate cuts, particularly in the context of Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and its chairman Powell [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rates and Economic Impact - Trump has been vocal about the need for lower interest rates, arguing that current rates are too high and impose significant economic costs, estimating a $360 billion annual cost for each percentage point of high interest rates [5][7]. - High interest rates lead to reduced borrowing and spending, which can result in job losses and lower economic growth, as evidenced by the disappointing non-farm payroll data [8][10]. - Lowering interest rates could stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper, which is crucial for consumer spending and business expansion [7][11]. Group 2: Global Trade and Currency Dynamics - A reduction in interest rates could weaken the dollar, making U.S. exports more competitive while also mitigating the impact of tariffs on consumers [10][11]. - However, a weaker dollar could also lead to a stronger yuan, potentially harming China's export competitiveness and accelerating the shift of low-end manufacturing to Southeast Asia [21][23]. Group 3: Opportunities and Risks for Emerging Markets - Historically, U.S. rate cuts have led to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, which could benefit markets like China's A-shares [19]. - The influx of capital could also create asset bubbles and financial volatility, particularly in sectors like technology [21][24]. - To mitigate risks, China could enhance its import reserves and support high-tech industries while upgrading its manufacturing capabilities to counteract the effects of a weaker dollar [23][24].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in Anhui Province is stable in the first seven months of the year [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,393.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1] Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales of limited enterprises grew by 5.5%, with significant growth in cultural office supplies (53.7%), communication equipment (52.2%), and household appliances (21.2%) [1] - The online retail sales of limited wholesale and retail enterprises increased by 22.1% [1] Foreign Trade - The total import and export volume reached 543.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] - Exports amounted to 364.73 billion yuan, growing by 13.8%, while imports reached 178.68 billion yuan, increasing by 14.8% [1] - Trade with the EU grew by 17.3%, and trade with ASEAN increased by 35.7% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.7% in the first seven months [2] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 5.5%, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw declines of 0.3% and 6.5%, respectively [2] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8%, with notable growth in railway (14.4%) and road transport (8.1%) [2] High-Tech and Green Energy Investment - High-tech service industry investment surged by 25.3%, with information services growing by 78.2% and R&D services by 85.7% [2] - Investment in green energy saw significant increases, with hydropower and solar energy investments growing by 113.8% and 84.6%, respectively [2]

Trade Performance - China's July exports increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB terms [1] - China's July imports increased by 4.8% year-on-year in RMB terms [1] - China's July exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding expectations [1] - China's July imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in USD terms, also exceeding expectations [1] - China's trade surplus narrowed to 705.1 billion RMB in July [1] - China's trade surplus was 98.24 billion USD in July [1] Overall Trade Trend - In the first seven months of the year, China's total import and export value reached 25.7 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - In July, total import and export value reached 3.91 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1] - July exports reached 2.31 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - July imports reached 1.6 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1]

Overall Trade Performance - China's total import and export value reached 257 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, with the growth rate accelerating by 06 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - In July, total import and export value reached 391 trillion yuan, an increase of 67% [1] Export Performance - In July, exports reached 231 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% [1] Import Performance - In July, imports reached 16 trillion yuan, an increase of 48% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX fundamentals maintain a weak balance, with obvious resilience in terminal demand. In the short - term, PX prices follow the cost of crude oil. In the future, during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is significant potential for demand and production to increase [139]. - For PTA, with large - scale device maintenance plans in August and new device production, the monthly output is expected to change little. Downstream demand provides resilient support. If oil prices are further pressured, TA prices will follow suit. Attention should be paid to demand recovery, tariff implementation progress, and significant oil price fluctuations [139]. - Regarding MEG, the supply is recovering well, and there is still room for domestic production to increase. The downstream demand provides resilient support. The inventory inflection point may arrive, and supply - demand will shift to inventory accumulation. Short - term prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in coal and oil prices [139]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, PTA's closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton (a 0.7% increase), MEG's increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton (a 3.0% increase), and PX's increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton (a 2.1% increase) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: PTA's basis decreased from 97 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton (a - 112.4% change), MEG's basis decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton (a - 3.9% change), and PX's basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 219 yuan/ton (a - 16.6% change). The TA - EG spread decreased from 433 yuan/ton to 339 yuan/ton (a - 21.7% change), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 333 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton (a - 17.4% change) [16][19][23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Spreads**: For ethylene glycol, the CFR China price increased by 3.1%, the FOB US Gulf price increased by 6.6%, the FD Northwest Europe price decreased by 7.5%, and the ethylene glycol spread (Europe - China) decreased by 54.6% from July 4 to July 31, 2025 [26]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 1, the Asian PX operating load was 73.4% (a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month), and China's was 81.1% (a 4.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). Some devices had unexpected outages or restarts [34]. - **PTA**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6% (a 5.1 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). New devices were put into production, and some existing devices were under maintenance [38]. - **MEG**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.64% (a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol was 74.04% (a 5.79 - percentage - point increase month - on - month). Some overseas devices were scheduled for maintenance [52][56]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In June 2025, China imported 76.54 million tons of PX, a 0.94% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 450.03 million tons, a 2.38% increase year - on - year [60]. - **PTA**: In June 2025, China exported 25.52 million tons of PTA, a 3.78% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 185.68 million tons, a 16.90% decrease year - on - year [61]. - **MEG**: In June 2025, China's monthly import volume of ethylene glycol was 61.78 million tons, a 2.34% increase month - on - month and a 1.30% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% year - on - year [62]. - **Polyester**: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 124.9 million tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 719.2 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [66]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Increase in Downstream Finished - Product Inventory - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [77]. - **MEG**: As of July 28, the port inventory in the main eastern China ports was about 52.1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation was postponed [80]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the polyester operating load was 88.1%, a 2.3% decrease from July 4. The inventory days and cash - flow of some products also changed [83]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports**: In June 2025, textile and apparel exports were 273.1 billion US dollars, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1439.8 billion US dollars, an 0.8% increase [98]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 4, PTA's total position decreased by 202,221 hands, MEG's decreased by 4207 hands, and PX's increased by 23,384 hands [113].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of aluminum is moving downward, alumina is experiencing continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy prices are following those of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,510, down 250 from a week ago and up 155 from a month ago. The trading volume was 127,617, a decrease of 17,683 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,572, down 60 from a week ago [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,162, down 60 from the previous day and 266 from a week ago. The trading volume was 275,347, a decrease of 105,822 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,920, down 30 from the previous day and 215 from a week ago. The trading volume was 2,098, an increase of 19 from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from a week ago. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,790.34, a decrease of 39.92 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274, unchanged from the previous day and up 19 from a week ago. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 294, a decrease of 38 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -249, unchanged from the previous day and up 59 from a week ago. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 19,500, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from a week ago [1]. Other Information - In June, China's imports and exports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth. The import increased by 1.1% and the export increased by 5.8% in US dollars. The export of industrial robots increased by 61.5% in the first half of this year [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [3][61]. Core Insights - Significant increases in crude oil prices have been observed, with Brent crude futures settling at $72.51 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.25%. WTI crude futures settled at $69.21 per barrel, up 6.30% from the previous month [1][7][11]. - China's crude oil export volume has surged dramatically, with a month-on-month increase of 611.63%, reaching 1,260,301.9 tons [2][49]. - The operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries has risen to 95.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a robust refining sector [1][24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures price increased to $72.51 per barrel, a rise of $4.90 per barrel or 7.25% month-on-month. WTI crude futures price reached $69.21 per barrel, up $4.10 per barrel or 6.30% [7][9][11]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC's crude oil production increased to 27,235 thousand barrels per day in June, a month-on-month rise of 219 thousand barrels per day, or 0.81% [21][24]. - U.S. refinery crude oil production rose to 17.25 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.48 million barrels per day, or 2.86% [24]. 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory increased to 1,660,512 thousand barrels, a month-on-month rise of 17,667 thousand barrels, or 1.08% [34][38]. 4. Imports and Exports - In June, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,115.50 thousand barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 2.53%. Conversely, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 5.71% to an average of 3,555.50 thousand barrels per day [2][43][49]. - China's crude oil imports rose to 4,989,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 329,000 tons, or 7.06% [43][47].

Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 1832.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.033 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%; the secondary industry added value was 650.556 billion yuan, growing by 3.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 1180.637 billion yuan, growing by 6.1% [1] Industrial Growth - The city's industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.3%, with a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - High-tech product output saw significant growth, with civil drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 59.0%, 38.0%, and 35.8% respectively [1] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry was 1180.637 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, also accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - Key sectors such as finance, transportation, and information technology services grew by 10.9%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen saw infrastructure investment grow by 7.7% and industrial technological transformation investment grow by 47.1% [1] - Investment in information transmission, software, and IT services surged by 47.7%, while transportation and postal services grew by 32.5%, and scientific research and technical services increased by 21.7% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 494.868 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The total import and export volume was 2167.545 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, but the decline was narrowed by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - High-tech product exports grew by 8.0% [2] Financial Sector - As of the end of June, the balance of deposits in financial institutions (including foreign capital) was 14160.014 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [2] - The balance of loans in financial institutions (including foreign capital) was 9846.991 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [2] Price Trends - The consumer price index in Shenzhen increased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].