行 业 研 究 石油石化行业：原油价格上涨明显， 中国原油出口数量大幅提升 原油价格上涨明显。截至 7 月 29 日，Brent 原油期货结算价和现货 价分别为 72.51 美元/桶和 70.04 美元/桶，环比上月上涨 7.25%和 4.85%；WTI 原油期货结算价和现货价格分别为 69.21 美元/桶、 66.71 美元/桶，环比上月分别涨 6.30%、1.82%；ESPO 原油现货 价格为 66.22 美元/桶，环比上月上涨 5.51%。6 月，OPEC 原油现 货价格为 69.73 美元/桶，环比上涨 9.61%；中国原油现货月度均价 （大庆）为 66.39 美元/桶，环比上涨 7.43%，中国原油现货月度均 价（南海）为 61.41 美元/桶，环比上涨 11.29%，中国原油现货月 度均价（胜利）为 67.33 美元/桶，环比上涨 8.94%。 美国，炼油厂可运营产能利用率上涨；成品车用汽油及石油产品的 供应量环比上升；成品车用汽油库存量月环比下降。截至 7 月 25 日，美国炼油厂可运营周平均产能利用率为 95.4%，环比上月上涨 0.5 个百分点。美国每周成品车用汽油：供应量为 9152 千桶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are experiencing inventory accumulation and cautious sentiment from downstream enterprises, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1] Natural Rubber Market Analysis - Qingdao port's total inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate, with a slight decrease in bonded warehouse inventory and a significant increase in general trade [1] - The overall inventory is increasing, and there is significant pressure to deplete it, with seasonal supply expectations adding to the fundamental pressure [1] - Overseas weather improvements are aiding rubber tapping operations, while domestic rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan is causing slow increases in raw material supply, keeping procurement prices firm [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with downstream enterprises primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a wait-and-see approach in the latter half of the week [1] Synthetic Rubber Market Analysis - The macro environment is slightly positive, boosting market sentiment, but the market is expected to return to supply-demand fundamentals after the news impact diminishes [1] - In the butadiene market, synthetic rubber strength is uplifting market sentiment, but external export prices are low, leading to cautious buying from downstream [1] - The supply side of synthetic rubber shows a slight increase in polybutadiene rubber production, while demand from tire manufacturers remains stable [1] - There are no significant positive indicators in the fundamentals, leading to insufficient rebound in futures prices, with expectations of continued range-bound trading [1] Trading Strategies - For natural rubber, the accumulation at Qingdao port is putting upward pressure on futures prices, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [1] - Suggested strategies include cautious short positions at highs, with support levels for RU at 13400 - 13500 and resistance levels at 14100 - 14200; for NR, support at 11700 - 11800 and resistance at 12300 - 12400 [1] - For synthetic rubber, the macro environment is supportive, but the lack of positive fundamentals suggests a continuation of range-bound trading, with BR support levels at 10700 - 10800 and resistance at 11600 - 11700 [1]