Group 1 - The essence of deflation is a decrease in money supply or a slowdown in circulation speed, leading to insufficient total demand and a general, persistent decline in prices [2] - Historical descriptions of deflation in ancient China highlight the negative impact on farmers, with phrases like "物贱伤农" indicating that low agricultural prices harm farmers' income [3] - The phenomenon of "钱少物贱" illustrates the insufficient circulation of currency, resulting in difficulties in selling goods and continuous price drops, ultimately leading to a contraction in trade [3][4] Group 2 - During the Qin and Han dynasties, the economic model was relatively simple, but deflation was closely linked to the rise and fall of the dynasty, with historical records indicating a mismatch between agricultural production and currency circulation [6] - The Tang and Song dynasties faced severe challenges in their currency systems, with the demand for money increasing due to economic prosperity, yet the supply of copper coins was insufficient, leading to a "money shortage" [8] - The Ming and Qing dynasties transitioned to a silver-based currency system, which introduced new deflation risks, particularly when international silver supply fluctuated, impacting the domestic economy [9][10] Group 3 - Historical cases of deflation in ancient China reveal the vulnerability and instability of the currency supply, which can lead to economic stagnation or collapse when supply issues arise [12] - The fluctuation of agricultural prices is not only an economic issue but also a political one, as low prices can lead to social unrest and potentially the downfall of dynasties [12] - Government responses to deflation, such as issuing paper money or adjusting tax structures, often lacked effective theoretical guidance and credit support, resulting in limited success [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid devaluation of cash in China is anticipated over the next five years due to severe monetary overproduction by the central bank, with M2 money supply reaching 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, while consumer prices are experiencing deflation, indicating a trend towards economic contraction [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The monetary overproduction is primarily due to excess liquidity within the financial system that is not reaching the real economy, leading to a perception of cash scarcity [3]. - The slowdown in income growth and shrinking consumer demand are contributing to economic deflation, resulting in significant inventory accumulation for businesses, forcing them to lower prices to recover funds [3]. Group 2: Asset Devaluation - Real estate prices are expected to continue their downward trend, with the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities dropping to 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, marking 41 consecutive months of price decline [5]. - The automotive industry is facing a price war, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and luxury imports seeing reductions up to 90,000 yuan, while second-hand electric vehicles are depreciating rapidly [8]. - The value of university degrees is declining due to an oversupply of graduates, with 12.22 million expected to graduate in 2025, and a lack of practical experience among graduates making them less attractive to employers [10]. - The collectibles market is experiencing a downturn, with significant price drops in items like the panda stamp and modern artworks, as reduced disposable income limits demand for such investments [13].

Core Insights - Thailand's inflation rate decreased by 0.72% year-on-year in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline in 2023 [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to falling prices, primarily due to government measures that reduced fuel and electricity prices, as well as lower costs for fresh food [1] - Despite the overall decline in inflation, the core consumer price index remains positive, indicating sustained domestic demand [1] Economic Indicators - The Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce, Nattapong Jiralertpong, stated that the core inflation rate has not decreased, particularly in the prepared food and entertainment sectors, reflecting ongoing domestic demand [1] - Employment rates are reported to be at normal levels, further supporting the notion that the economy is not experiencing deflation [1] - The Ministry of Commerce forecasts that the inflation rate may approach zero by the fourth quarter of 2025, with potential for negative values in certain months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether to invest 500,000 in real estate or keep it in a bank by 2025, with a prevailing opinion suggesting that saving in a bank is the safer option due to potential declines in the real estate market [2][4][13]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - Wang Jianlin argues that the domestic real estate market has peaked after over 20 years of growth, indicating limited future appreciation and a higher likelihood of price declines [4][6]. - The average national housing price has seen a decline of over 30%, reinforcing the notion that investing in real estate may lead to significant losses [6][13]. - The current economic climate suggests that the real estate market is entering a downturn, making it a less favorable investment option [13]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - Keeping 500,000 in a bank ensures the safety of the principal amount, even though interest rates are low, while investing in real estate could lead to substantial value depreciation [6][13]. - Purchasing property typically requires taking on significant debt, which adds financial pressure, whereas saving in a bank avoids this burden and provides some interest income [9][13]. - The liquidity of bank savings is superior to that of real estate, allowing for easier access to funds in case of emergencies, which is crucial in a deflationary economic environment [11][13].

Group 1 - The Moscow Exchange suspended trading on September 13 without providing a reason for the halt [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00% on September 12, which was less than expected amid calls for more aggressive easing due to economic slowdown [1] - Experts had anticipated a faster rate cut due to lower-than-expected total demand and inflation in the Russian economy [1] Group 2 - On July 25, the Central Bank of Russia reduced the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18.00%, maintaining a tight monetary policy to achieve inflation targets by 2026 [2] - The bank expects the average key interest rate for this year to be between 18.8% and 19.6%, with a target of 12.0% to 13.0% by 2026 [2] - Inflation is projected to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% this year and stabilize at 4.0% by 2026, with the second quarter of 2025 showing a drop in inflation from 8.2% to 4.8% [2] Group 3 - The labor market has shown signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of companies reporting staff shortages, although wage growth remains above productivity [3] - The unemployment rate is at historical lows, but labor shortages pose a potential inflation risk if domestic demand accelerates without a corresponding increase in productivity [3] - Credit expansion is slower than in previous years, with consumer loans contracting while mortgage and corporate loans see moderate growth [3] Group 4 - The Central Bank acknowledges persistent inflation risks but also considers deflation risks, particularly if credit and demand cool faster than expected [3] - Fiscal policy is a crucial factor in the bank's forecasts, with the assumption that the government will maintain its current fiscal stance through 2025 [3][4] - The Central Bank is focused on returning to sustainable low inflation levels, requiring patience and caution in decision-making [4]

Group 1 - The Moscow Exchange suspended trading on September 13 without providing a reason for the halt [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00% on September 12, which was less than expected despite calls for more aggressive easing due to economic slowdown [1] - The Central Bank's decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, with expectations of maintaining tight conditions until inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Central Bank projects inflation to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% this year, with a target of 4.0% by 2026, indicating a long-term commitment to tight monetary policy [2] - Recent data shows a decline in inflation indicators, with the overall inflation rate dropping from 8.2% in Q1 2025 to 4.8% in Q2 2025 [2] - The labor market is showing signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of companies reporting staff shortages, although wage growth still exceeds productivity [3] Group 3 - Credit expansion is slowing compared to previous years, with consumer loans contracting while mortgage and corporate loans are experiencing moderate growth [3] - The Central Bank acknowledges that inflation risks remain prevalent, but also considers the risk of deflation due to faster-than-expected cooling of credit and demand [3][4] - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in its forecasts, indicating potential adjustments to interest rate paths if fiscal policies change [3][4]

Group 1 - The Turkish central bank significantly lowered interest rates, reducing the one-week repo rate from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding investor expectations by 200 basis points [1] - The overnight lending rate was decreased from 46% to 43.5%, and the overnight borrowing rate from 41.5% to 39% [1] - The central bank's decision reflects a faster pace of easing than many traders anticipated, which may continue to exert pressure on the Turkish lira in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The Turkish lira's exchange rate remained relatively stable at 41.295 lira per US dollar following the interest rate cut [1] - The central bank's statement indicated that while inflation trends are easing, domestic final demand remains weak despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter [1] - The August inflation rate rose to 33%, higher than economists' expectations, prompting major banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to revise their interest rate cut forecasts [1] Group 3 - The central bank removed the phrase "pursuing the real appreciation of the lira" from its decision document, indicating a shift in its monetary policy framework [5] - The central bank aims to maintain disinflation through "demand, exchange rates, and expectations channels," with potential for slight depreciation of the lira if local assets remain attractive [6] - Analysts suggest that maintaining a faster rate of easing while keeping the lira appreciation standard would be unwise, indicating a potential subtle change in daily currency management [7] Group 4 - Political uncertainty is rising in Turkey, with escalating confrontations between the main opposition party and the judiciary, leading to bond and stock sell-offs [7] - A court case regarding the Republican People's Party (CHP) is set for September 15, which could result in the removal of the party's national leadership and the appointment of a trustee [7]

Group 1 - The Thai Research Center has revised its inflation forecast for Thailand in 2025 from 0.3% to 0.1% [1][2] - In August, Thailand's inflation rate was recorded at -0.79%, marking the fifth consecutive month of negative inflation and the lowest level since January 2024 [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to a broad range of products, with 183 items (approximately 40% of the inflation basket of 464 items) showing price decreases compared to July [1] Group 2 - Core inflation in August 2025 remains positive at 0.81%, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about high living costs despite some price reductions [1] - Prices for certain goods, such as instant food, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials, continue to rise, contributing to a decrease in consumer confidence index to 47.9 [1] - The forecast for the third quarter indicates negative inflation slightly below expectations, while the fourth quarter is expected to turn positive but still below previous forecasts due to factors like falling domestic fuel prices and reduced domestic demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent low inflation despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt repayment and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money went to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached $586.7 billion in the first half of 2025, but foreign currency deposits hit a record high of $824.87 billion, indicating that much of the earnings from exports are not being converted back to RMB [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas, investing in high-yield assets rather than bringing the funds back to China [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategy - The article suggests that attracting foreign and repatriated funds to the Hong Kong capital market is crucial for stabilizing the economy and enhancing wealth effects [11][13]. - The push for Hong Kong's capital market is seen as a strategy to create a favorable environment for investment, especially in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent deflationary pressures despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money has flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt servicing and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money has gone to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of 2025, while foreign currency deposits hit a record high of 824.87 billion USD, indicating a significant increase in foreign currency holdings by export enterprises [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, which limits domestic liquidity and complicates the inflation situation [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategies - The article suggests that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, is crucial for attracting foreign and repatriated funds, with measures like allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks directly [11]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may further incentivize capital to flow into Hong Kong's markets [13].