展望后市，多家机构认为，黄金价格或仍有上行空间，投资者对避险资产的配置意愿持续增强。在高盛的乐观情景假设下，若美国经济陷入衰退，黄金ETF的资金 流入或将进一步提速，推动金价年内升至3880美元/盎司。 黄金飙涨 4月21日早盘，上期所黄金期货主力合约再度飙涨，一举突破800元/克关口，创历史新高，一度大涨超2%，今年迄今累计涨超30％。 受此影响，A股开盘后，黄金股集体大涨，晓程科技一度冲击20CM涨停，现涨超16%；鹏欣资源、潮宏基强势涨停，赤峰黄金、西部黄金、湖南黄金、山东黄金、 中金黄金、山金国际等跟涨。 与此同时，现货黄金价格一度突破3380美元/盎司，再度刷新历史最高点位，现涨1.56%。 黄金一路狂飙。 今日早间，黄金价格再度大涨，上期所黄金期货主力合约一举突破800元/克关口，创历史新高；现货黄金价格一度突破3380美元/盎司，再度刷新历史最高点位。A 股开盘后，黄金股全线大涨，晓程科技一度冲击20CM涨停，鹏欣资源强势涨停。 与此同时，上海黄金交易所公告称，近期贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识，继续做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行。同时，提示投资者做好 风险防范工作，合理控制仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the secondary market prices of gold and bank-themed ETFs reflects a growing preference for stable assets amid global market volatility [2][4][12] Group 1: Bank-Themed ETFs - The banking sector, characterized by low valuations and high dividends, stands out among A-share listed companies, attracting significant investor interest [3][9] - As of April 18, several bank-themed ETFs, including the Huabao CSI Bank ETF, reached historical highs, with the latter showing a 0.98% increase on that day [6][10] - The largest bank-themed ETF, Huabao CSI Bank ETF, has a scale of 7.997 billion yuan, significantly leading over its closest competitor [10] - Active equity funds are also increasing their holdings in the banking sector, with a reported total market value of 55.584 billion yuan, up 22.87% quarter-on-quarter [10] Group 2: Gold-Themed ETFs - Gold-themed ETFs have also seen significant price increases, with both commodity ETFs tracking gold spot contracts and stock ETFs tracking gold-related stocks experiencing over 27% growth this year [8][11] - The largest domestic gold-themed ETF, Huazhong Gold ETF, has a scale of 59.2 billion yuan, followed by Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF [11] - Gold ETFs have attracted substantial net inflows this year, with Huazhong Gold ETF alone receiving 20.9 billion yuan [11] Group 3: Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment - The current uncertain environment has led to increased funds flowing into stable assets like bank and gold-themed ETFs [8][12] - The banking sector's fundamentals are considered stable, with a dividend yield of approximately 6.1%, ranking second among all primary industries [12] - Recent announcements of targeted A-share stock issuances by major state-owned banks signal confidence in the banking sector's future performance, potentially alleviating investor concerns [13]

Group 1 - The report highlights the divergence in the trends of oil prices and US Treasury yields, indicating that the recent drop in oil prices, with Brent crude at $64.76 per barrel (down 13% from early April), typically signals expectations of economic recession. However, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose significantly by 47 basis points to 4.48%, marking the highest level since mid-February and the largest single-week sell-off in the US bond market since September 2019. This divergence suggests a weakening of the traditional safe-haven status of US Treasuries, while increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains intact [8][9][10]. Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, as of April 11, 2025, the average daily trading volume was 15,751 billion yuan, up from 11,173 billion yuan previously. The report notes that the consumer sector outperformed, followed by finance, while cyclical and growth sectors lagged. Among the 31 sectors tracked, only 4 sectors saw gains, with agriculture, retail, and defense industries leading the way, while power equipment, telecommunications, and machinery sectors faced significant declines [18][19]. Group 3 - The report discusses the strengthening of domestic consumption and technology sectors, with expectations for continued growth in GDP and key economic indicators such as industrial output and retail sales. The anticipated release of trade data is expected to provide further insights into the impact of trade tensions and credit conditions on domestic consumption policies. The report suggests that while there may be short-term risks related to raw material price declines and export impacts, the long-term outlook remains positive for leading industry players and new technological applications [10][11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the financial industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a focus on risk aversion and suggests prioritizing companies in the financial sector with relatively high dividend yields amidst declining market risk appetite [4][18]. - The report anticipates that the trade war will inevitably impact China's economy, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to previous risk mitigation efforts and ample policy space [6][8]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The report suggests that state-owned banks, such as Industrial and Agricultural Bank, have stronger risk aversion attributes and are likely to yield excess returns in the short term due to their better positioning amidst trade tensions [4][17]. - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its solid customer base and governance, making it a stable investment with attractive dividend yields post-correction [4][8]. - The report indicates that after the short-term risk aversion sentiment dissipates, attention should shift to the potential benefits from counter-cyclical policies, particularly for city commercial banks and state-owned banks with significant infrastructure exposure [4][8]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is advised to focus on companies with robust fundamentals and defensive attributes, such as China Pacific Insurance and China Property & Casualty Insurance, due to the recent decline in valuations [5][18]. - The report projects a premium growth rate of approximately 5% to 6% year-on-year by 2025, with a corresponding NBV growth rate of 25% [5][18]. - The demand for long-term bonds and high-dividend assets is expected to remain strong, supporting the asset allocation needs of insurance companies [5][18]. Securities and Comprehensive Finance - The report notes that the securities industry has increasingly emphasized balanced asset allocation between stocks and bonds, with an average bond asset allocation of 62.3% of total financial assets among 23 listed brokerages [14][18]. - Given the significant market volatility, bond assets may help mitigate potential declines in investment returns [14][18]. - The report highlights the potential for multi-financial companies with high dividend yields to achieve excess returns in the current market environment [17][18].