Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, stated that votes against interest rate cuts should not be interpreted as a signal to halt rate reductions [1] Group 1 - Huw Pill emphasizes that opposing a rate cut does not equate to a commitment to stop lowering rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomics**: China agrees to engage in trade talks with the US, and the market is awaiting the outcome of the meeting. The key for an unexpected outcome lies in whether there will be a full - scale interest rate cut. The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI shows a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9][10][11]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance. The market is affected by overseas interest - rate cut expectations, PMI data, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Caution is advised for investors, and those who are risk - averse may choose to wait and see [12]. - **Shipping to Europe**: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential. The focus is on the peak - season performance, and the market is waiting for the inflection point of cargo volume [13][14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, cotton prices are under pressure due to concerns about demand and supply improvements; sugar prices are expected to decline due to increased supply from Brazil; palm oil and soybean meal are recommended to be shorted; egg prices are expected to be weak due to increasing supply; apple prices may rise, and a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended; and for dates, short - positions should be gradually closed [15][16][20][21]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is in a multi - factor game, and fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. Plastics, methanol, etc. are recommended to be shorted. Rubber is in a short - term range - bound state. LPG's long - term price center may decline, but it is relatively strong compared to crude oil in the short term [24][26][27][35]. - **Metals**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile, and alumina may repair upward in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to supply - side issues. Steel and iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the medium term, and coking coal and coke prices are in a downward channel [38][40][42][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - The US has shown an intention to adjust tariff measures and hopes to talk with China. China has decided to engage in contact. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [9]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [9]. - The Minister of Finance states that China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident of achieving the 5% growth target in 2025 [9]. - The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI is 50.7, down 1.2 percentage points from March, and the composite PMI output index drops 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9]. - The "Fed whisperer" suggests that the Fed may postpone interest - rate cuts, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May [10]. - The US trade deficit in March increases by 14% month - on - month to a record high of $140.5 billion, with imports rising by 4.4% to a record $419 billion and exports rising slightly by 0.2% [10]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance [10]. - Influencing factors: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Risk - averse investors are advised to wait and see [12]. - Influencing factors: Loose capital at the beginning of the month, overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the upcoming press conference [12]. Shipping to Europe - Market outlook: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential due to failed price increases in March, April, and the first half of May and a downward - moving price center. The focus is on the peak - season performance [13]. - Fluctuation reasons: EU's additional tariffs on some Chinese goods, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the reaction of the market to shipping companies' price - increase attempts [14]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: Domestic cotton prices are weak due to concerns about actual orders and demand. The market is affected by international trade frictions and the supply situation in the US [15]. - Future outlook: Pay attention to macro - economic changes, US cotton planting and export situations, and domestic downstream orders and production starts [15]. Sugar - Logic and view: There is sufficient short - term supply, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The market is influenced by Brazil's production increase and concerns about global economic recession [16]. - Future outlook: The international sugar market is shifting its focus to Brazil's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Domestic sugar prices may be affected by import supplies and new - season sugarcane production [17][19]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. The risk factors include policy changes, abnormal weather, and soybean arrivals [20]. - Future outlook: Palm oil supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Soybean meal supply is increasing, and prices are under pressure [20]. Eggs - View: Adopt a bearish approach to egg futures. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [20][21]. - Future outlook: Egg prices are below the cost line, and the supply is likely to increase further due to large egg - laying hen capacity and high inventory [21]. Apples - View: Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The market is affected by the apple - setting situation in the western region [22]. - Future outlook: Spot prices in production and sales areas are stable and strong. The new - season apple production situation needs further evaluation [23]. Dates - View: Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. - Future outlook: The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal. The market is affected by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking and supply - demand situation in sales areas [23]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the market is in a multi - factor game between supply increase and potential trade - war easing [24]. - Future outlook: The market may be dominated by supply increase and economic recession. If the trade war eases, prices may rebound [24]. Fuel Oil - Outlook: The demand is affected by tariff policies, and the price is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. The market needs to evaluate the impact of the trade war on demand [26]. Plastics - View: Short L and PP. The prices are affected by the decline in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [27]. Rubber - Strategy: Short - term range - bound trading. Consider light - position short - term long positions with stop - losses during corrections. Pay attention to the change in the RU - NR spread [28]. Methanol - View: Adopt a bearish and volatile trading strategy. The market is affected by weak downstream demand and the international trade environment [29]. Caustic Soda - Outlook: The short - term demand improvement pushes up the futures price, but the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Adopt a range - bound trading strategy [30]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to improve marginally in May, but the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price rebound space is limited [31]. - Glass: The price is expected to be volatile or decline due to weak demand and high inventory. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal demand in May [32]. Asphalt - Future outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate around 3400 yuan/ton. The inventory is stable, and the price is supported by the cost [32]. Polyester Industry Chain - View: The price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the upside space is limited in the medium term. The market is affected by the trade war and supply - side adjustments [34]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Outlook: The long - term price may decline, but domestic PG is relatively strong compared to crude oil due to the trade war. The market is affected by supply, demand, and import costs [35]. Metals Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The price is expected to be volatile. The market is affected by Sino - US trade talks and demand resilience [38]. - Alumina: The price may repair upward in the short term due to cost reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, the long - term supply overhang remains [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to decline due to over - supply and difficulty in de - stocking. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [40]. - Polysilicon: The price is under pressure in the medium term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Steel and Iron Ore - Market view: The short - term price may be volatile, and the medium - term trend is expected to be weak. The market is affected by domestic policies, supply - demand, and cost factors [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: The prices are in a downward channel. There is no condition for going long until there is large - scale production reduction or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [44]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: Go long on an intraday basis. The price is affected by the reduction of settlement electricity fees [45]. - Manganese Silicon: Sell the 06 - contract put options. The market is affected by electricity fees and supply - demand [45].