Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has intensified his personal attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that Powell should resign if allegations of misleading Congress are proven true, and he advocates for a replacement who would lower interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Powell - Trump labeled Powell as "terrible" during a cabinet meeting and stated that if the allegations regarding misleading Congress are confirmed, Powell should resign immediately [1]. - Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for maintaining unchanged interest rates, arguing that it is unsuitable for the current U.S. economy [1][2]. - Following Trump's comments, several government officials, including Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, echoed calls for Powell's resignation, citing deceptive testimony regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve spokesperson declined to comment on Trump's remarks, maintaining a stance of non-engagement with political criticism [2]. - Powell has denied certain media reports about the renovation project, asserting that they are misleading and clarifying that no extravagant features are included in the renovation [3][4]. Group 3: Future of Powell's Tenure - Powell's term as Fed Chairman is set to expire in May 2026, and Trump has indicated he would prefer a successor who is willing to implement rate cuts [2][5]. - Trade advisor Peter Navarro suggested that if Powell does not support rate cuts in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, other Fed governors should intervene [5][6]. - Trump has expressed conflicting signals regarding Powell's potential dismissal, indicating both a desire for a new chairman and a temporary reluctance to fire him [6]. Group 4: Potential Successors - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is viewed as a strong candidate to succeed Powell, as he is seen as data-driven and capable of balancing market trust with Trump's desire for lower interest rates [7]. - Waller's previous support for rate cuts aligns with Trump's economic policies, making him a favorable choice for the administration [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to lower financing costs for both enterprises and residents, thereby stimulating economic activity and consumer confidence [6][7][8]. Group 1: Impact on Enterprises - The one-year LPR has decreased to 3%, and the five-year LPR has dropped to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period, leading to a reduction in overall financing costs for the real economy [6]. - Companies like Maoming Boge Port Railway Co. have reported significant savings, with annual interest expenses reduced by 770,000 yuan, easing operational pressures [6]. - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a trend of declining loan rates [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on Residents - Homebuyers are benefiting from reduced mortgage interest burdens, with some banks adjusting their rates in response to the LPR decrease [8][9]. - For a 1 million yuan, 30-year mortgage, a 10 basis point drop in LPR can reduce monthly payments by 54 yuan and total interest payments by 19,000 yuan [9]. - In major cities, banks have quickly adjusted first-home loan rates to around 3.05%, which is expected to boost housing market activity and consumer purchasing power [9][10]. Group 3: Stimulating Consumer Spending - The LPR decline is also expected to lower costs for large consumer purchases, alleviating financial pressure on residents looking to improve their living conditions [11]. - For instance, a 300,000 yuan, 3-year consumer loan can save nearly 3,600 yuan in interest compared to last year, which can encourage spending on home renovations and other large purchases [11]. - Banks are actively expanding consumer credit offerings, with some products now offering rates as low as 3%, which is a 25 basis point decrease from the previous year [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given report. Core Viewpoints - On May 20, state - owned banks cut RMB deposit rates, with the current deposit rate down 5 basis points to 0.05%, and various fixed - deposit rates also reduced. Meanwhile, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR were both down 10BP to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking the full implementation of this round of policy rate, deposit rate, and LPR cuts [2]. - This round of LPR and deposit rate cuts is a continuation of the May interest - rate cut policy. It's an expected move as the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and hinted at LPR and deposit rate adjustments on May 7 [3]. - The overall reduction in deposit rates slightly exceeded expectations due to banks' large net interest margin and operational pressure. The net interest margin of banks dropped to 1.43% in Q1 this year, and the non - performing loan ratio in Q1 was 1.51%, higher than the net interest margin [3]. - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR cuts of 10BP were in line with expectations. The LPR cut was smaller than the deposit rate cut to maintain banks' interest margins and considering the already low real - economy loan costs [4]. - In April, real - estate data weakened marginally, but the 5 - year - plus LPR was not significantly cut, indicating that the focus of real - estate stabilization policies may not be on the interest - rate side. However, the stock mortgage rate will continue to decline [5]. - The short - term wide - money game is over, and the next interest - rate cut window is expected at least in the third quarter. The probability of an interest - rate cut is decreasing in the next 90 days, but may increase if the Sino - US negotiation goes poorly [6]. Summary by Related Contents Impact on the Market - **Liability Effect**: Lower deposit rates may change residents' deposit intentions, leading to "deposit migration", putting short - term pressure on banks' liabilities and affecting certificate of deposit and fund trends [8]. - **Price - Comparison Effect**: LPR cuts will have a price - comparison effect on bond market interest rates through the bank asset side. A further decline in deposit rates will enhance the bond market's cost - effectiveness [8]. - **Benefit to Non - bank Allocation Demand**: A shift from low - interest and illiquid deposits to wealth management, bond funds, or insurance policies will benefit the bond market, especially short - and medium - term credit bonds [8]. - **Benefit to Stock Market Liquidity**: The continuous reduction in the opportunity cost of off - market funds helps the stock market re - evaluate, with a more direct positive impact on bank stocks and high - dividend stocks [8]. - **Impact on RMB Exchange Rate**: The decline in domestic broad - spectrum interest rates exerts some pressure on the RMB exchange rate, but the magnitude is limited [8]. Bond Market Situation - The bond market has already over - anticipated the interest - rate cut, and it has not yet emerged from the volatile pattern. However, in the medium term, the decline in broad - spectrum interest rates will have a positive impact on the bond market, and the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is lowered to 1.5% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, stated that votes against interest rate cuts should not be interpreted as a signal to halt rate reductions [1] Group 1 - Huw Pill emphasizes that opposing a rate cut does not equate to a commitment to stop lowering rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomics**: China agrees to engage in trade talks with the US, and the market is awaiting the outcome of the meeting. The key for an unexpected outcome lies in whether there will be a full - scale interest rate cut. The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI shows a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9][10][11]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance. The market is affected by overseas interest - rate cut expectations, PMI data, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Caution is advised for investors, and those who are risk - averse may choose to wait and see [12]. - **Shipping to Europe**: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential. The focus is on the peak - season performance, and the market is waiting for the inflection point of cargo volume [13][14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, cotton prices are under pressure due to concerns about demand and supply improvements; sugar prices are expected to decline due to increased supply from Brazil; palm oil and soybean meal are recommended to be shorted; egg prices are expected to be weak due to increasing supply; apple prices may rise, and a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended; and for dates, short - positions should be gradually closed [15][16][20][21]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is in a multi - factor game, and fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. Plastics, methanol, etc. are recommended to be shorted. Rubber is in a short - term range - bound state. LPG's long - term price center may decline, but it is relatively strong compared to crude oil in the short term [24][26][27][35]. - **Metals**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile, and alumina may repair upward in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to supply - side issues. Steel and iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the medium term, and coking coal and coke prices are in a downward channel [38][40][42][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - The US has shown an intention to adjust tariff measures and hopes to talk with China. China has decided to engage in contact. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [9]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [9]. - The Minister of Finance states that China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident of achieving the 5% growth target in 2025 [9]. - The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI is 50.7, down 1.2 percentage points from March, and the composite PMI output index drops 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9]. - The "Fed whisperer" suggests that the Fed may postpone interest - rate cuts, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May [10]. - The US trade deficit in March increases by 14% month - on - month to a record high of $140.5 billion, with imports rising by 4.4% to a record $419 billion and exports rising slightly by 0.2% [10]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance [10]. - Influencing factors: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Risk - averse investors are advised to wait and see [12]. - Influencing factors: Loose capital at the beginning of the month, overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the upcoming press conference [12]. Shipping to Europe - Market outlook: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential due to failed price increases in March, April, and the first half of May and a downward - moving price center. The focus is on the peak - season performance [13]. - Fluctuation reasons: EU's additional tariffs on some Chinese goods, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the reaction of the market to shipping companies' price - increase attempts [14]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: Domestic cotton prices are weak due to concerns about actual orders and demand. The market is affected by international trade frictions and the supply situation in the US [15]. - Future outlook: Pay attention to macro - economic changes, US cotton planting and export situations, and domestic downstream orders and production starts [15]. Sugar - Logic and view: There is sufficient short - term supply, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The market is influenced by Brazil's production increase and concerns about global economic recession [16]. - Future outlook: The international sugar market is shifting its focus to Brazil's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Domestic sugar prices may be affected by import supplies and new - season sugarcane production [17][19]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. The risk factors include policy changes, abnormal weather, and soybean arrivals [20]. - Future outlook: Palm oil supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Soybean meal supply is increasing, and prices are under pressure [20]. Eggs - View: Adopt a bearish approach to egg futures. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [20][21]. - Future outlook: Egg prices are below the cost line, and the supply is likely to increase further due to large egg - laying hen capacity and high inventory [21]. Apples - View: Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The market is affected by the apple - setting situation in the western region [22]. - Future outlook: Spot prices in production and sales areas are stable and strong. The new - season apple production situation needs further evaluation [23]. Dates - View: Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. - Future outlook: The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal. The market is affected by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking and supply - demand situation in sales areas [23]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the market is in a multi - factor game between supply increase and potential trade - war easing [24]. - Future outlook: The market may be dominated by supply increase and economic recession. If the trade war eases, prices may rebound [24]. Fuel Oil - Outlook: The demand is affected by tariff policies, and the price is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. The market needs to evaluate the impact of the trade war on demand [26]. Plastics - View: Short L and PP. The prices are affected by the decline in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [27]. Rubber - Strategy: Short - term range - bound trading. Consider light - position short - term long positions with stop - losses during corrections. Pay attention to the change in the RU - NR spread [28]. Methanol - View: Adopt a bearish and volatile trading strategy. The market is affected by weak downstream demand and the international trade environment [29]. Caustic Soda - Outlook: The short - term demand improvement pushes up the futures price, but the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Adopt a range - bound trading strategy [30]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to improve marginally in May, but the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price rebound space is limited [31]. - Glass: The price is expected to be volatile or decline due to weak demand and high inventory. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal demand in May [32]. Asphalt - Future outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate around 3400 yuan/ton. The inventory is stable, and the price is supported by the cost [32]. Polyester Industry Chain - View: The price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the upside space is limited in the medium term. The market is affected by the trade war and supply - side adjustments [34]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Outlook: The long - term price may decline, but domestic PG is relatively strong compared to crude oil due to the trade war. The market is affected by supply, demand, and import costs [35]. Metals Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The price is expected to be volatile. The market is affected by Sino - US trade talks and demand resilience [38]. - Alumina: The price may repair upward in the short term due to cost reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, the long - term supply overhang remains [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to decline due to over - supply and difficulty in de - stocking. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [40]. - Polysilicon: The price is under pressure in the medium term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Steel and Iron Ore - Market view: The short - term price may be volatile, and the medium - term trend is expected to be weak. The market is affected by domestic policies, supply - demand, and cost factors [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: The prices are in a downward channel. There is no condition for going long until there is large - scale production reduction or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [44]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: Go long on an intraday basis. The price is affected by the reduction of settlement electricity fees [45]. - Manganese Silicon: Sell the 06 - contract put options. The market is affected by electricity fees and supply - demand [45].