"美国政府停摆并不常见，因此当劳工统计局要完成规模如此庞大的非农就业报告统计工作时，总会存 在一定的不确定性。" 求职平台玻璃门（Glassdoor）首席经济学家丹尼尔・赵表示，"因此，我认为在 解读这份报告时应保持审慎，做好应对各种结果的准备。" 受美国史上持续时间最长的政府停摆事件余波影响，11 月非农就业报告的发布时间出现异常 —— 并非 惯例的每月第一个周五，而是推迟至 12 月中旬的一个周二。 为何会出现 "一个半" 就业报告？ 这场长达 43 天的联邦资金断供风波，恰逢美国企业和家庭面临关键经济节点的时刻，直接导致大量核 心经济数据的发布陷入停滞。 过去一个月，此前积压的经济数据正逐步解冻，而本周更是迎来集中发布潮：未来三天内，零售销售、 通胀以及就业市场的多份重磅报告将陆续出炉。 其中，非农就业报告与 11 月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告还带着一份 "假日惊喜"—— 两份报告都将附 带约半数的 10 月数据。 若非这一情况前所未有，倒真有点像节日季里常见的 "买一送一享五折" 促销活动。 市场预计，周二早间发布的非农就业报告将显示，11 月美国非农部门仅新增就业岗位 4 万个，失业率 将稳定在 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11821, with a current price of 11852, down 0.77% from the opening price of 11715, and a trading range between a high of 11977 and a low of 11689, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The Shanghai silver market showed a significant trading range last week between 12300 and 11700, suggesting a continued low-level oscillation, with a focus on the 12300 level for potential breakout or consolidation [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to data collection issues stemming from the government shutdown, with the November report now scheduled for December 18 [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting will occur before the release of key economic data, including the November CPI and non-farm payroll reports, which may impact monetary policy decisions [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated a dovish stance based on recent labor market data, suggesting support for a 25 basis point rate cut if his vote becomes critical [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly reduced the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 1: Market Influences - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped from approximately 45% to around 30%-40% [2] - The global tech stock market crash has triggered risk-averse sentiment, which may support gold prices in the long term [2] Group 2: Key Price Levels - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,110 and the $4,130-$4,140 range; a failure to sustain upward momentum near these levels may warrant short positions [2] - A critical support level to watch is $4,020; if gold stabilizes here and shows bullish candlestick patterns, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - If gold breaks below the $4,020 support, it could open up further downside potential, while a strong breakout above $4,140 could lead to additional upward movement, though the current fundamentals do not strongly support this scenario [3] Group 3: Future Monitoring - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are crucial for the gold market; attention should be paid to speeches from Fed officials leading up to the December FOMC meeting, as any hints regarding interest rate paths could cause market fluctuations [4] - Key economic data, including upcoming inflation figures (CPI, PCE) and the combined non-farm employment report for October and November, will be critical in assessing the U.S. economic condition and inflation trends [5] - The ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 psychological and technical support level is essential; a breach could lead to further declines [6]

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price declined slightly due to the better-than-expected U.S. September non-farm payroll report, which reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December [1] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, indicating stronger employment growth momentum [1] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity but not a collapse [3] Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 4.117%, while the 2-year yield was approximately 3.571%, indicating stable bond yields despite the employment data [3] - The dollar index initially rose to 100.360 before retreating after the employment data was released, which limited the upward momentum for silver [3] - Silver faced selling pressure in the morning session and failed to gain substantial support from the dollar's pullback post-data release [3] Technical Analysis - Silver's upward potential is contingent on maintaining above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of 50.990, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages in a bullish arrangement [4] - If silver prices fall below the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level of 49.947, it may test lower levels at 0.618 retracement of 48.903 and previous low of 49.332 [4] - The current market is in an adjustment phase, with a focus on Fibonacci levels and moving averages to determine future trends [4] Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests a bullish position near the support level of 49.50, with a stop loss at 49.10 and a target range of 50.60 to 51.30 [7] - The overall market sentiment for silver is currently bearish due to strong employment data, stable Treasury yields, and a modest dollar retreat [4][7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the non-farm payroll report appears "slightly outdated" but aligns with expectations, indicating mixed employment data that highlights challenges for monetary policy [1] Employment Data Summary - Employment data presents a mixed picture, suggesting that while some indicators are positive, others may signal underlying issues [1] - The report emphasizes the complexities faced by monetary policy in responding to current labor market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting the release of the October non-farm payroll report [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers are divided on whether to cut rates in December, with more members opposing a cut than supporting it, leading to a rise in the dollar index [2][3] - The updated release schedule for the non-farm payroll report means the Federal Reserve will lack key evidence to support a rate cut, further increasing divisions on inflation outlook among decision-makers [2] Group 2 - The dollar index has seen significant fluctuations this year, dropping from above 109 to around 96, primarily due to changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][4] - The recent rise in the dollar index has negatively impacted global risk asset prices, with major stock indices experiencing substantial gains throughout 2025 [4] - The strengthening dollar has led to declines in sensitive assets like Bitcoin and gold, as well as adjustments in high-valuation U.S. tech stocks, indicating a potential end to the current bull market in risk assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 36.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 63.8% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Rate Expectations** - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 36.2% [1] - The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is at 63.8% [1] - **Employment Data Update** - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the release of the October non-farm payroll report, indicating that it will be combined with November data [1]

Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of October 9, the gold ETF holdings amounted to 1013.44 tons, a decrease of 1.14 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On October 9, the spot gold price closed at $3975.89 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.58%, with an intraday high of $4057.76 and a low of $3944.29 [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Statistics - Despite the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September CPI data, although the specific release date is uncertain and will not be on the originally scheduled October 15 [3] - The Bureau has halted all operations during the funding interruption, which delayed the release of the non-farm payroll report [3] - Some employees have been recalled to complete the report preparation, and the decision to release the data is linked to the annual Social Security cost adjustment process [3][4] - The delay in the September price data may postpone the announcement of the cost-of-living adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the non-farm payroll report due to the government shutdown, but private sector indicators suggest a weak hiring environment, limited layoffs, moderate wage growth, and a cooling labor demand in September [1] Group 1 - Recent private sector indicators show weak hiring and limited layoffs in September, aligning with the low hiring and layoff trends observed before the government data suspension [1] - Wage growth remains moderate, indicating a stable but cautious labor market [1] - Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan, suggests that the Federal Reserve can confidently consider interest rate cuts later this month based on the current labor market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remained stable due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is expected to delay the release of the important nonfarm payrolls report originally scheduled for Friday [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is impacting the release of key economic data [1] - The nonfarm payrolls report is a significant indicator for the labor market and economic health [1] - The stability of the dollar amidst uncertainty reflects market reactions to government actions [1]