本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【1月6日美元走势震荡，投资者权衡地缘局势与美国疲软数据】分析师指出，美元走势正陷入震荡，投 资者在权衡挥之不去的地缘政治紧张局势与疲软的美国数据。市场对潜在地缘政治进展保持谨慎，或加 剧美元波动。 周一低于预期的ISM制造业报告，加剧了市场对增长动力放缓的担忧。分析师表示，若 再有疲软数据，或推高市场对美联储今年追加降息的预期。 本周三将公布ISM服务业报告和职位空缺 及劳动力流动调查，周五将公布非农就业报告。 ...

受史上持续时间最长的政府停摆事件后续影响，11 月非农就业报告的发布时间出现异常 —— 并非惯例 的每月第一个周五，而是定于 12 月中旬的一个周二。 其中后两份报告还附带一份 "假日惊喜"：11 月的非农就业报告与消费者价格指数报告，均将同时纳入 约半个月的 10 月数据。 若非这一情况前所未有，倒颇有些契合当下商家 "买一送一，第二件半价" 的促销季氛围。 市场预计，周二上午发布的非农就业报告将显示，11 月美国新增就业岗位仅 4 万个，失业率维持在 4.4% 的水平 —— 这一数值虽处于历史低位，但仍高于近几年的平均水平。 尽管如此，经济学家表示，本次报告的结果可能存在较大不确定性。 "政府停摆事件并不常见，因此当劳工统计局要完成规模如此庞大的非农就业报告统计工作时，难免会 存在一定的不确定性。" 招聘平台 Glassdoor 首席经济学家丹尼尔・赵表示，"因此，我认为在解读这份 报告时应当保持审慎态度，并做好应对各种结果的准备。" 为何会出现 "一个半" 就业报告？ 劳工统计局每月发布的劳动力市场报告，基于两项内容详实的调查：一项针对企业与公共部门机构（统 计就业人数、薪资水平与工时），另一项则面向家 ...

今日21:30，美国劳工部劳动统计局，将公布美国10~11月合并非农就业报告。10月1日至11月12日，美国政府因为预算拨款未通过而持续停摆，导致非农就 业报告的基础数据存在无法采集、无法追溯的问题。美国劳工部宣布合并10月和11月的数据，不再逐月单独公布。 综合来看，我们认为，本周即将公布的10~11月份非农就业报告，超预期增长的概率较低，大概率维持缓慢的增长速度。美联储的货币政策调整很大程度上 依赖于非农就业报告的表现。如果本周非农就业报告爆冷，美联储在2026年降息的频率和幅度可能加大。 ▲ATFX图 行情走势方面，日线级别，美元指数处于长期空头趋势之中，触及96.3阶段性低点之后，开启一轮中期反弹，反弹最高点100.3点，随后进入新一轮顺势下 跌。短周期来看，最近17根K线中，仅有5根阳K线，且实体较小。意味着空头力量远胜多头力量。在没有突发消息扰乱的情况下，美元指数下一个支撑位可 能在96.3点附近。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点，不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依 据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更新内容不会另行通 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a combined non-farm payroll report for October and November, but key details, including the October unemployment rate, will be missing due to the government shutdown, marking the first time since 1948 that such data will not be published [1][2] Non-Farm Payroll Report - The October employment report has been canceled, but the non-farm employment numbers and other details will be included in the November report [1] - The non-farm payroll report is based on two surveys, which typically occur during the week that includes the 12th of the month [1] - Employers continued to submit responses electronically during the government shutdown, allowing the BLS to calculate October's non-farm employment numbers [2] - Economists predict that the non-farm employment numbers for November will increase by 50,000 jobs, following an increase of 119,000 jobs in September [2] Unemployment Rate - Due to the lack of a household survey in October, there will be no unemployment rate report for that month, which is unprecedented since the data series began [2] - The unemployment rate for November is projected to be 4.4%, unchanged from September [3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report - The BLS will not release the overall CPI or core CPI for October due to the inability to collect necessary data during the shutdown [5] - The agency indicated that the number of indices that can be published for October will be very limited, and specific guidance for data users regarding the missing data will not be provided [5] - Goldman Sachs warned that the volatility of the CPI series may increase, as price collection in the latter half of November could lead to lower price readings due to holiday sales [5]

Group 1 - The November non-farm employment report is delayed due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 43 days, which has impacted the release of key economic data [2][18] - The report is now scheduled for release on December 16, instead of the usual first Friday of the month, and will include about half of the October data [6][22] - The market expects the report to show only 40,000 new jobs added in November, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.4%, which is above recent averages despite being historically low [3][19] Group 2 - Economists warn that the data in this report may be chaotic due to the unusual circumstances surrounding the government shutdown, which affected data collection and processing [4][20] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was unable to conduct household surveys during the shutdown, leading to the integration of October data into the November report [6][22] - The report will include notes explaining the context and technical issues related to the data, highlighting the impact of the shutdown on employment statistics [23] Group 3 - Recent private sector employment reports indicate a mixed picture, with a net increase of 47,000 jobs in October but a decrease of 32,000 in November [9][25] - Job vacancies increased in October, but hiring activity has stagnated, with rising layoffs and workers reluctant to leave their current positions [27] - Economists predict that the employment growth observed in September may represent a peak, with estimates suggesting a total of 0 to 50,000 new jobs added in October and November combined [12][28] Group 4 - Key indicators to watch in the upcoming report include detailed data from both the business and household surveys, which will provide insights into the employment market's performance [14][30] - There is an expectation that employment in goods-related industries may decline, while healthcare and possibly the restaurant sector could continue to see job growth [32] - Wage growth is anticipated to slow, which may further suppress future consumer spending [32]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11821, with a current price of 11852, down 0.77% from the opening price of 11715, and a trading range between a high of 11977 and a low of 11689, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The Shanghai silver market showed a significant trading range last week between 12300 and 11700, suggesting a continued low-level oscillation, with a focus on the 12300 level for potential breakout or consolidation [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to data collection issues stemming from the government shutdown, with the November report now scheduled for December 18 [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting will occur before the release of key economic data, including the November CPI and non-farm payroll reports, which may impact monetary policy decisions [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated a dovish stance based on recent labor market data, suggesting support for a 25 basis point rate cut if his vote becomes critical [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly reduced the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 1: Market Influences - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped from approximately 45% to around 30%-40% [2] - The global tech stock market crash has triggered risk-averse sentiment, which may support gold prices in the long term [2] Group 2: Key Price Levels - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,110 and the $4,130-$4,140 range; a failure to sustain upward momentum near these levels may warrant short positions [2] - A critical support level to watch is $4,020; if gold stabilizes here and shows bullish candlestick patterns, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - If gold breaks below the $4,020 support, it could open up further downside potential, while a strong breakout above $4,140 could lead to additional upward movement, though the current fundamentals do not strongly support this scenario [3] Group 3: Future Monitoring - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are crucial for the gold market; attention should be paid to speeches from Fed officials leading up to the December FOMC meeting, as any hints regarding interest rate paths could cause market fluctuations [4] - Key economic data, including upcoming inflation figures (CPI, PCE) and the combined non-farm employment report for October and November, will be critical in assessing the U.S. economic condition and inflation trends [5] - The ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 psychological and technical support level is essential; a breach could lead to further declines [6]

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price declined slightly due to the better-than-expected U.S. September non-farm payroll report, which reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December [1] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, indicating stronger employment growth momentum [1] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity but not a collapse [3] Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 4.117%, while the 2-year yield was approximately 3.571%, indicating stable bond yields despite the employment data [3] - The dollar index initially rose to 100.360 before retreating after the employment data was released, which limited the upward momentum for silver [3] - Silver faced selling pressure in the morning session and failed to gain substantial support from the dollar's pullback post-data release [3] Technical Analysis - Silver's upward potential is contingent on maintaining above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of 50.990, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages in a bullish arrangement [4] - If silver prices fall below the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level of 49.947, it may test lower levels at 0.618 retracement of 48.903 and previous low of 49.332 [4] - The current market is in an adjustment phase, with a focus on Fibonacci levels and moving averages to determine future trends [4] Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests a bullish position near the support level of 49.50, with a stop loss at 49.10 and a target range of 50.60 to 51.30 [7] - The overall market sentiment for silver is currently bearish due to strong employment data, stable Treasury yields, and a modest dollar retreat [4][7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the non-farm payroll report appears "slightly outdated" but aligns with expectations, indicating mixed employment data that highlights challenges for monetary policy [1] Employment Data Summary - Employment data presents a mixed picture, suggesting that while some indicators are positive, others may signal underlying issues [1] - The report emphasizes the complexities faced by monetary policy in responding to current labor market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting the release of the October non-farm payroll report [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers are divided on whether to cut rates in December, with more members opposing a cut than supporting it, leading to a rise in the dollar index [2][3] - The updated release schedule for the non-farm payroll report means the Federal Reserve will lack key evidence to support a rate cut, further increasing divisions on inflation outlook among decision-makers [2] Group 2 - The dollar index has seen significant fluctuations this year, dropping from above 109 to around 96, primarily due to changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][4] - The recent rise in the dollar index has negatively impacted global risk asset prices, with major stock indices experiencing substantial gains throughout 2025 [4] - The strengthening dollar has led to declines in sensitive assets like Bitcoin and gold, as well as adjustments in high-valuation U.S. tech stocks, indicating a potential end to the current bull market in risk assets [5]