Economic Data Releases - The upcoming economic data releases are ranked by importance: US September Non-Farm Payroll Report, Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, and Eurozone September CPI year-on-year [1] US Non-Farm Payroll Report - The US Non-Farm Payroll Report will be released on Friday at 20:30, with a previous value of 22,000 jobs and an expected value of 50,000 jobs, indicating optimistic expectations [3] - Historical data shows that a Non-Farm Payroll figure above 200,000 will boost the US dollar index, while figures between 100,000 and 200,000 have a weaker effect [3] - If the Non-Farm Payroll falls below 100,000, it typically results in a negative impact on the US dollar index, regardless of whether the latest figure exceeds previous expectations [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of October is currently at 89.3%, primarily due to a weak US labor market [3] Reserve Bank of Australia - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% during its decision on Tuesday at 12:30 [4] - The RBA has cut rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points, with the last cut occurring in August [4] - Australia's second-quarter GDP growth rate was 1.8%, and the unemployment rate is currently at 4.2%, indicating a stable economic environment that supports the decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Eurozone CPI - The Eurozone's September CPI year-on-year initial value will be released on Wednesday at 17:00, with a previous value of 2.0% and an expected value of 2.3% [6] - CPI data is crucial for assessing inflation levels in the Eurozone and is a key factor for the European Central Bank's monetary policy adjustments [6] - If the CPI data shows a significant decline, the likelihood of the ECB restarting rate cuts may increase, potentially impacting the euro's value [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is facing challenges, as evidenced by the lower-than-expected private sector job growth in August, which added only 54,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 65,000 [1][5] - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that the strong job growth seen earlier in the year has been significantly impacted by uncertainties, including rising consumer concerns, labor shortages, and disruptions related to artificial intelligence [4] - Employment in sectors related to trade, transportation, and utilities showed particular weakness, with a net loss of 17,000 jobs in August, while education and healthcare services also experienced a decline of 12,000 jobs [4] Group 2 - The report highlighted that wage growth remained stable in August, with pay for stayers increasing by 4.4% year-over-year and pay for job switchers rising by 7.1% [5] - The ADP report adds to the concerns regarding the labor market, especially following earlier data indicating that job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) in July reached one of the lowest levels since 2020 [5] - Attention is now shifting to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's August CPI preliminary value is expected to remain at 2.0%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is anticipated to be 48.6%, slightly up from the previous 48 [2] - US factory orders for July are projected to show a month-on-month decline of 1.4%, an improvement from the previous decline of 4.8% [3] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP employment change for August is expected to show an increase of 70,000 jobs, down from the previous 104,000 [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 are forecasted to be 226,000, slightly lower than the previous 229,000 [6] - The non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show an adjusted increase of 78,000 jobs, up from 73,000, with an unemployment rate forecasted at 4.3%, slightly higher than the previous 4.2% [7] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, which will be closely monitored for its impact on related futures prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 967.94 tons of gold as of August 28, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5.44 tons from the previous trading day, amid rising gold prices that surpassed $3400 per ounce [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 28, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 967.94 tons, marking a 5.44-ton increase from the prior day [5]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings has occurred for four consecutive trading days [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On August 28, spot gold prices rose to a peak of $3423.2 per ounce, closing at $3416.78 per ounce, an increase of $19.3 or 0.57% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - Recent economic data indicates resilience in the U.S. economy, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to an annualized rate of 3.3% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, and continuing claims fell to 1.954 million, both below expectations [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence have led to increased buying interest in gold [6]. - The technical outlook for gold remains optimistic, with prices trading above all moving averages and a relative strength index (RSI) above 50 [6]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3440 and $3500, while support levels are at $3360, $3350, and $3330 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged significantly, reaching a high of 7.1182, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it has surpassed 7.12, driven by a combination of stable exchange rate policies, strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][1][1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB appreciated over 340 points in a single day, indicating strong market momentum [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB's performance to a balanced approach in exchange rate policy and favorable conditions in the domestic equity market [1][1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with officials indicating a potential 25 basis point cut in September [1][1][1] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on two key upcoming data releases: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the non-farm payroll report [1][1] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist suggests that the Fed is likely to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, depending on economic data performance [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is attempting to rebound against major currencies, but remains under pressure due to dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with an overall anticipated reduction of approximately 48 basis points by the end of the year [1][2] - Political uncertainties, particularly President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies, are contributing to downward pressure on the dollar, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US PCE price index report, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, as this data could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction and market sentiment [2] - In terms of technical analysis, the momentum indicators are neutral, and the dollar index needs to close below 97.55 to confirm a bearish signal [2] - Initial support for the dollar index is at 97.55, with further support at 97.20, while initial resistance is at 98.83 and then at 99.08 [2]

Group 1 - The rapid advancement of AI technology, exemplified by the release of GPT-5, contrasts with the slow adaptation in real-world applications, highlighting significant barriers to practical implementation [2][3][5] - The quality of official economic data in the U.S. is deteriorating, which raises concerns about the reliability of metrics that influence critical economic decisions such as interest rates and social security [5][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection methods have become increasingly reliant on estimations, with 35% of the data being approximated rather than directly collected, indicating potential inaccuracies in economic reporting [6][8][9] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll (NFP) report showed a disappointing job growth of only 73,000 positions in July, with significant downward revisions for previous months, marking one of the worst performances since the pandemic [9][10] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues to use outdated methods for data collection, which introduces various uncontrollable factors that can skew results, such as response rates and the accuracy of reporting by businesses [11] - There is a growing trend in the U.K. towards automated data collection for CPI, utilizing supermarket scanner data to enhance accuracy and coverage, suggesting a potential path forward for improving economic data collection methods [15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the lack of indications for potential rate cuts have diminished the appeal of gold, especially in light of strong U.S. economic data [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial, with expectations of a 109,000 increase in July employment, but Standard Chartered Bank warns that the downside risks to employment figures are significantly higher than anticipated [1] - A weak employment report could accelerate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and deepen the decline of the U.S. dollar, leading to broader market impacts [1] Group 2 - The volatility surrounding non-farm payroll data presents opportunities for traders to capitalize on price fluctuations, allowing for both upward and downward positioning [2] - The expert team at the company provides insights into the implications of employment data, such as rising unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, which could affect inflation trends [2] - Each non-farm payroll release serves as a critical moment for market logic re-evaluation and a test of traders' comprehensive skills [2]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve official Kashkari indicates that both the non-farm payroll report and ADP employment data reflect a softening labor market in the United States [1] Group 1 - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness as indicated by recent employment reports [1]

Core Insights - The US dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 2.23% to 147.36 yen, with a weekly decline of 0.21% [1] - The trading range for the dollar-yen pair was between 150.92 and 147.30 yen during the period from July 28 to August 1 [1] - The euro against the yen decreased by 0.70% to 170.88 yen, with a cumulative weekly drop of 1.49% [1] - The British pound against the yen dropped by 1.66% to 195.786 yen, with a weekly decline of 1.40% [1]