Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly preview of key economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. Different economic indicators and events may have various effects on different types of futures, such as industrial product futures, stock index futures, bond futures, and precious metal futures. For example, if certain manufacturing PMI data is higher than the previous value, it may slightly boost the prices of industrial product futures and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3][11][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On June 30 at 09:30, China's June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI will be released [2][3]. - On July 1 at 09:45, Markit will announce China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI [2][11]. - On July 1 at 22:00, the US ISM will release the US June ISM manufacturing PMI [2][17]. - On July 2 at 20:15, the US ADP will announce the June ADP employment change [2][19]. - On July 3 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June non - farm payroll report [2][22]. - Also, pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview June 30 - China's June official manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous 50.3). A slight increase in manufacturing PMI may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.2% (previous 2.1%) [5]. - The US June Chicago PMI is expected to be 43 (previous 40.5) [8]. - The European Central Bank will hold a central bank forum in Sintra from June 30 to July 2 [9]. July 1 - The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at 00:00, which may affect agricultural product futures [10]. - China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49 (previous 48.3). A slight increase may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [11]. - Germany's May real retail sales monthly rate is expected to be 0% (previous - 1.2%) [12]. - Germany's June seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate is expected to be 6.4% (previous 6.3%), and the number of unemployed is expected to increase by 15,000 (previous 34,000) [13]. - The eurozone's June harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.0% (previous 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [14]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [15]. - Global Western central bank governors will have a panel discussion at 21:30 [16]. - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.8 (previous 48.5). A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures but suppress gold and silver futures [17]. July 2 - The eurozone's May unemployment rate is expected to be 6.2% (previous 6.2%) [18]. - The US June ADP new employment is expected to be 85,000 (previous 37,000). An increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [19]. - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventory for the week ending June 27. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [20]. July 3 - China's June Caixin services PMI is expected to be 51.5 (previous 51.1) [21]. - The US June seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is expected to be 110,000 (previous 139,000), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3% (previous 4.2%), and the average hourly wage annual rate is expected to be 3.9% (previous 3.9%). A significant decrease in new non - farm employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate may boost gold and silver futures but suppress other industrial product futures [22]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 are expected to be 240,000 (previous 236,000) [23]. - The US May factory orders monthly rate is expected to be 8% (previous - 0.37%). A significant increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [25]. - The US June ISM non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5 (previous 49.9). A slight increase may slightly suppress gold and silver futures [26]. July 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in circulation in late June, covering 9 categories and 50 products [27]. July 6 - OPEC + eight member countries will hold a meeting to decide the production policy for August, which may affect related commodity futures [28].

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Important economic data and events are scheduled for the upcoming week, including China's manufacturing PMI and the US non-farm payroll report [1][2] - Key Point 2: The "big and beautiful" bill proposed by Trump is expected to undergo a final vote, with less than a week remaining before the July 4 deadline [1] - Key Point 3: The European Central Bank will hold a forum in Sintra, where major central bank leaders will engage in discussions [1][2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Various economic indicators will be released, including the US API and EIA crude oil inventory reports, as well as employment data from ADP [2] - Key Point 2: The week will also see the release of service sector PMIs for multiple regions, including the US and Eurozone [2] - Key Point 3: OPEC+ members will convene to decide on production policies for August [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, which is higher than the market expectation of 130,000, but reflects a slowdown in job growth amid trade policy uncertainties [17] - The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, indicating a potential delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [17] - The U.S. economy needs to create approximately 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population, which may decline due to immigration policy changes [17] Group 2 - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% this month, with a possibility of resuming easing policies in September [17] - The job growth in May reflects businesses hoarding workers amid uncertainty over tariffs, which is hindering their ability to plan ahead [17] - The opposition from conservative Republicans and figures like Elon Musk to President Trump's tax and spending proposals adds another layer of uncertainty for businesses [17]

Core Points - The US non-farm payroll report for May was released, leading to a short-term increase in the US dollar index by approximately 10 points, followed by a rapid decline of about 20 points, currently reported at 98.89 [1] - Spot gold experienced a short-term drop of around 7 dollars before rebounding over 10 dollars, currently priced at 3356.44 dollars per ounce [1]

+加自选 概览 图表 美元指数短线拉升约10点，现报99.15。美股期货短线拉升，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.8%。美国10年期国债收益率短线拉升，现报 4.407%。现货黄金短线走低约5美元，现报3351.75美元/盎司。 现货黄金 (XAUUSD) 3351.75 -0.90 (-0.03%) 交易中，2025-06-06 20:31:00（北京时间) 1m 5m 15m 30m 1H 4H 1D 1W 1M N 3360.00 3355.00 3350f 8032 18:49 19:06 19:23 19:40 19:57 20:14 20:3 52周最高: 3499.83 昨收:3352.65 最高: 3375.48 今开:3354.60 52周最低: 2287.37 最低: 3349.64 美国10年期国债收益率 (US10YR) 4.407 +0.014 (+ 0.32%) 交易中，2025-06-06 20:25:28（北京时间) +加自选 概览 图表 30m 1m 5m 15m 1H 4H 1D 1W 1M N -4.440 4.430 4.420 4.410 4.400 4.390 4.38 ...

提醒：北京时间20:30，将美国5月非农就业报告，加拿大5月就业报告。 ...

分析师：续请人数走高或推升失业率 金十数据5月29日讯，财经网站Forexlive分析师表示，今日的初请数据持续显示劳动力市场稳定，无需 担忧。持续申领失业救济人数数据与非农就业报告调查周相关，且刚刚创下周期新高，这可能导致失业 率上升。 ...

机构：现在判断降息信号仍为时尚早 金十数据5月8日讯，Transunion副总裁兼美国研究咨询主管Michele Raneri表示，美联储按兵不动很可能 是因为高通胀以及其他近期经济趋势的影响，例如强劲的4月非农就业报告。尽管今年晚些时候仍有可 能降息，但当前的经济形势较为复杂，现在判断是否会降息以及何时降息还为时过早。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ISM manufacturing PMI provided some reassurance to the market, indicating that orders have not collapsed despite ongoing trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The USD/JPY exchange rate returned to the 145 level for the first time since April 8, following the PMI announcement [1] - Analysts noted that manufacturers are at the center of the trade war, and the ISM survey results have improved market sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - There are signs that the sentiment regarding the tariff war is improving, with companies expressing optimistic comments during Q1 earnings releases [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to cause some volatility, but there are currently no widespread discussions about layoffs among companies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of recent U.S. trade policies and economic indicators on the gold market, indicating a complex interplay between short-term pressures and long-term safe-haven demand [2][3] - President Trump signed an executive order to alleviate tariff impacts on automakers, while the U.S. Commerce Secretary revealed a secret trade agreement, aiming to reduce market anxiety [2] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $162 billion in March, potentially dragging down Q1 GDP by nearly 2 percentage points, raising concerns about economic performance [2] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index fell to a five-year low in April, and job openings dropped by 288,000 in March, signaling economic weakness [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its Q1 GDP forecast to a contraction of 0.8%, reflecting growing pessimism among economists [2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, the long-term safe-haven logic remains intact, as indicated by David Meger, who noted that the recent price correction is merely technical [2] Group 3 - Current gold T+D prices are at 780.88 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.49%, and trading has seen a high of 786.00 yuan and a low of 779.65 yuan [3] - Resistance levels for gold are observed at 835-840 yuan, while support is seen at 760-765 yuan [3]