Group 1 - The rapid advancement of AI technology, exemplified by the release of GPT-5, contrasts with the slow adaptation in real-world applications, highlighting significant barriers to practical implementation [2][3][5] - The quality of official economic data in the U.S. is deteriorating, which raises concerns about the reliability of metrics that influence critical economic decisions such as interest rates and social security [5][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection methods have become increasingly reliant on estimations, with 35% of the data being approximated rather than directly collected, indicating potential inaccuracies in economic reporting [6][8][9] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll (NFP) report showed a disappointing job growth of only 73,000 positions in July, with significant downward revisions for previous months, marking one of the worst performances since the pandemic [9][10] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues to use outdated methods for data collection, which introduces various uncontrollable factors that can skew results, such as response rates and the accuracy of reporting by businesses [11] - There is a growing trend in the U.K. towards automated data collection for CPI, utilizing supermarket scanner data to enhance accuracy and coverage, suggesting a potential path forward for improving economic data collection methods [15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the lack of indications for potential rate cuts have diminished the appeal of gold, especially in light of strong U.S. economic data [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial, with expectations of a 109,000 increase in July employment, but Standard Chartered Bank warns that the downside risks to employment figures are significantly higher than anticipated [1] - A weak employment report could accelerate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and deepen the decline of the U.S. dollar, leading to broader market impacts [1] Group 2 - The volatility surrounding non-farm payroll data presents opportunities for traders to capitalize on price fluctuations, allowing for both upward and downward positioning [2] - The expert team at the company provides insights into the implications of employment data, such as rising unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, which could affect inflation trends [2] - Each non-farm payroll release serves as a critical moment for market logic re-evaluation and a test of traders' comprehensive skills [2]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve official Kashkari indicates that both the non-farm payroll report and ADP employment data reflect a softening labor market in the United States [1] Group 1 - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness as indicated by recent employment reports [1]

Core Insights - The US dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 2.23% to 147.36 yen, with a weekly decline of 0.21% [1] - The trading range for the dollar-yen pair was between 150.92 and 147.30 yen during the period from July 28 to August 1 [1] - The euro against the yen decreased by 0.70% to 170.88 yen, with a cumulative weekly drop of 1.49% [1] - The British pound against the yen dropped by 1.66% to 195.786 yen, with a weekly decline of 1.40% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report indicates a significant downward revision of previous data, suggesting a stagnation in the labor market, which may lead to a reconsideration of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [1] Group 1 - Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, suggests that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had anticipated the current non-farm data, he might have opposed the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - The non-farm employment report shows a stark reality with no embellishments, highlighting the challenges in the labor market [1] - Historical patterns indicate that the Federal Reserve made a mistake last year by not lowering rates in July, which led to an urgent rate cut in the following month [1] Group 2 - There is a concern that the Federal Reserve may repeat past mistakes by failing to adjust rates in response to the current labor market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly three years, driven by President Trump's new tariffs on numerous trade partners, which have not significantly harmed the economy or raised inflation [1] Economic Impact - Investors believe that the tariffs imposed by Trump have only caused minor damage to the economy, and the overall economic fundamentals remain acceptable, albeit not at their best [1] - The market may face short-term selling pressure, but this is viewed as a temporary retreat as investors wait for more data [1] Federal Reserve Stance - Despite Trump's pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, the Fed has indicated that it is not in a hurry to take action [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is not expected to have a significant impact on the dollar, even if the employment data is weak [1] Future Outlook - Unless extremely poor data emerges before September, it is unlikely that expectations for a rate cut will be reignited [1]

周五晚20:30，美国将公布7月非农就业报告。此前，就在周四凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在维持利率不变后表示，就业市场明显存在下行风险，需要密切关 注。 经济学家预测，此次数据将显示劳动力市场进一步降温，因为美国政府在关税与移民政策上的不确定性，企业招聘持续受到影响。 市场预计，美国7月非农新增人口将录得11万人，失业率将稍微上升至4.2%，平均时薪年率和月率料将录得3.8%和0.3%。 市场预期：非农11万+失业率4.2% 市场预期共识显示，7月新增非农就业人口预计为11万人，较6月的14.7万人略有放缓，但仍远高于大约8万人的"供需平衡"水平。市场预测区间依然很宽， 从零增长到17万人不等。此外，前两次非农数据的修正情况将受到密切关注，因为最近几个月修正值多为下调。 预计7月失业率将回升至4.2%，此前在6月降至4.1%，主要是因为6月劳动力参与率意外下滑。7月参与率可能略有回升，按四舍五入仍为62.3%，但这种回升 足以让失业率上升0.1个百分点。 4.2%的失业率并非令人担忧的水平，且距离美联储年底4.5%的预测仍有差距。随着不确定性持续存在，未来企业是削减工时还是裁员，将成为值得关注的 问题。 7月平均时 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing corporate earnings [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a drop of 0.38% [1] US-China Economic Relations - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held constructive talks in Stockholm, focusing on US-China economic relations and macroeconomic policies [2] - Both sides emphasized the importance of a stable and healthy economic relationship, which is beneficial for their development goals and global economic stability [2] Corporate Earnings Performance - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the expected $4.59, and lowered its full-year EPS forecast to at least $16, causing its stock to drop by 7.5% [2] - Boeing's Q2 revenue was $22.75 billion, exceeding expectations, but reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, leading to a 4.4% decline in its stock [3] - Merck's Q2 sales were $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but its adjusted EPS of $2.13 was down year-over-year, resulting in a 1.7% stock decline [3] - UPS's stock plummeted by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below expectations, and failing to provide full-year guidance [3] - Procter & Gamble's Q4 sales were $20.89 billion, with core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations, but its growth forecast for FY2026 was below market expectations [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after lowering its sales and profit outlook for FY2025 due to poor performance of its weight-loss drug Wegovy [4] Economic Data - The US trade deficit narrowed to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down by 4.2% [4] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating stable labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US rose in July, with the index increasing to 97.2, slightly above expectations [6] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates [7] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, are set to release earnings this week, which are anticipated to significantly impact overall market trends [4]

Core Insights - The overall non-farm payroll report is considered good data, indicating a positive employment trend [1] Employment Trends - Employment trends are reported to be strong, reflecting a healthy labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Miran, argues that the non-farm payroll report counters the pessimism and hopelessness promoted by critics, emphasizing the job growth among native-born Americans since Trump's presidency rather than foreign-born workers [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Employment Growth** - The non-farm payroll report indicates significant job growth among native-born Americans since the beginning of Trump's administration [1] - **Criticism Response** - Miran calls for a focus on the positive employment trends rather than the negative narratives pushed by critics regarding the labor market [1]