Core Viewpoint - Bank stocks are gaining popularity among investors, with notable examples of high returns, such as a student earning over 13% in four months from bank stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Bank Index saw a 34.7% increase in 2024 and a further 13% rise in the first half of 2025, leading among all industry indices [2][3]. - Among 42 A-share listed banks, 15 reached historical highs in stock prices during the first half of 2025 [2]. - The performance of state-owned banks lagged behind, with an average increase of only 8.8% in the first half of 2025, ranking last among various bank categories [3][4]. Group 2: Individual Bank Performance - Agricultural Bank led the six major state-owned banks with a 12.7% increase, while Postal Savings Bank had the lowest increase at just 1% [4]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Qingdao Bank topped the A-share listed banks with increases of 34.9% and 32.4%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [7][8]. - Zhengzhou Bank was the only bank to experience a decline in stock price, dropping 1.9% in the first half of 2025 [9]. Group 3: Dividend and Yield Analysis - The average dividend yield for state-owned banks was 4.04% as of June 30, 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.71, indicating a relatively high cost-performance ratio [6]. - Despite high dividend rates, some banks like Postal Savings Bank and Lanzhou Bank saw minimal stock price increases, highlighting that dividend yield does not solely determine stock performance [10]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment towards bank stocks remains mixed, with some investors questioning whether to increase their investments or take profits after recent gains [1][11]. - Analysts emphasize that the sustainability of high dividend yields depends on banks' profitability, valuation, and dividend policies, which are crucial for maintaining investor interest [14].

Group 1 - Bank stocks showed strong performance on July 4, 2025, with several banks like Everbright Bank, CITIC Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank rising over 2%, reaching historical highs [1] - The banking sector continued its steady upward trend in the first half of 2025, benefiting from market preferences and improved expectations for bank fundamentals [1] - The average dividend yield for the banking sector reached 4.01%, making it attractive for long-term funds like insurance capital [2] Group 2 - The Huafu Xinhua Zhongxin Dividend Value Index has returned 1.06% since its inception in May, with an annualized return of 6.99%, indicating strong performance of its constituent stocks [1] - The index employs a selection strategy based on "one high and four lows" (high dividend, low volatility, low valuation, low beta, low turnover), aiming to balance high dividends with low volatility [1] - Recent policies have emphasized investor returns, leading to a more stable and continuous dividend system, which enhances the value of high-dividend assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly focusing on the surge and subsequent decline of certain stocks related to stablecoins, highlighting the risks of speculative trading and the importance of understanding market fundamentals [5][6][7]. Market Trends - The recent performance of stocks related to stablecoins has been extreme, with some stocks experiencing a 200% increase in a single day, followed by significant losses for late investors [6][7]. - The article notes that the surge in copper prices has led to increased costs for businesses, indicating a strong demand in the industrial metals market [9][10]. - The supply constraints in the global industrial metals market, due to regulations and export bans in countries like China and Indonesia, have contributed to rising prices for metals such as cobalt and nickel [12]. Macroeconomic Signals - The dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the potential interest rate cuts in September are seen as positive signals for market liquidity and demand [11]. - The U.S. "Big Beautiful" bill, which extends tax cuts and increases spending, is expected to boost the global economy, despite criticisms regarding its impact on the renewable energy sector [14][15]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of high-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate environment, suggesting that companies with stable dividends can serve as reliable income sources [17]. - It advocates for investing in industry leaders during market downturns, as these companies are likely to benefit from the failure of weaker competitors [18]. - The article warns against chasing market fads and highlights the potential for stable companies to provide better long-term returns [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [12] Core Insights - The construction sector is favored for high dividend investment opportunities, particularly in Hong Kong and A-shares [2] - Key companies highlighted include China State Construction, Sichuan Road and Bridge, and international engineering firms benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable growth and infrastructure as a cornerstone of economic development, with significant government spending planned for 2025 [9] Summary by Sections High Dividend Opportunities - The report continues to favor high dividend investment opportunities in the construction sector, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises and local government enterprises [2] - China State Construction is identified as a top pick due to its strong fundamentals and high dividend yield [10] Performance of Hong Kong Construction Stocks - Hong Kong construction stocks have performed well, with notable increases in share prices for companies like China Communications Construction and China Railway Group [8] - The report attributes this performance to overall market strength and significant liquidity inflows [8] A-Share Recommendations - In A-shares, China State Construction is recommended for its high dividend yield and robust order growth, with new contracts expected to reach 1.4149 trillion yuan in 2024, a 21.1% increase year-on-year [10] - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its increasing dividend payout ratio and confidence in future growth [10] International Engineering Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential of international engineering firms, particularly those involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with companies like China Steel International and China National Materials recommended for their high dividend yields [10] Market Outlook - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with infrastructure investment expected to benefit from government policies and increased fiscal spending [9][10] - The report notes that the construction sector is positioned to capitalize on these trends, making it an attractive investment area [9]

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 6 月 20 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 3 位读者获赠本期推 荐新书！ 01 《钱商：投资、决策与财富增长的9大思维》 [美]伊利亚·斯特雷布拉耶夫 [美]亚历克斯·邓 著 中信出版集团 出版 内容简介 一个人要想赚到钱，关键在于形成对投资和财富的正确认知，持续提升自己的钱 商。 作为世界上最成功的财富创造群体之一，风险投资人在资本市场上经历了无数次 探索与试错，逐步形成了一套高回报的思维模式。作为这个群体的一员，本书作 者通过多年的教学与研究将这些投资智慧系统化，帮助上千名学生在财富管理上 取得了实质性进展。基于这一成果，作者总结出风投式思维的九大核心原则，并 将之呈现在本书中。 本书清晰地展现了如何在复杂多变的市场环境中识别机会、规避风险并坚定追求 高回报。书中的九条风投式思维囊括了投资组合发现机会、风险管理、慧眼识人 和长期价值等方方面面每一条原则不仅着眼于财富增值，更帮助读者在面对不确 定性时具备冷静思考的智慧。 无论是刚入门的投资新手，还是期望提升财商的职业人士，这本书都将帮你掌握 金钱运转的核心法则，实现个人跃迁。 作者简介 伊利亚·斯特雷布拉耶夫 斯坦福大学商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the trend of high dividend investments in the banking sector, driven by low interest rates and a strong demand for asset allocation from insurance funds [5][26]. - It emphasizes the stability of dividends and the attractiveness of the banking sector for long-term capital inflows, particularly from insurance companies [26][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Insurance Capital Investment in Banking Stocks - Historical trends show three waves of insurance capital investment in banking stocks in 2015, 2020, and 2024, driven by low interest rates, high premium growth, accounting changes, and regulatory guidance [8][12]. - Since 2020, insurance capital has shown a more moderate approach to equity stakes in banks, focusing on stabilizing earnings and securing dividends [5][8]. 2. Future Outlook - The banking sector's high dividend yield is appealing, with a static dividend yield ranking third among all industries as of 2024 [26][28]. - The collaboration between banking and insurance channels is significant, with insurance premium income from bank channels reaching 36.7% in 2023, enhancing the sales of insurance products [26][31]. 3. Stock Selection Strategy - Key factors for stock selection include dividend yield, transaction costs, and fundamental performance, with a focus on stable dividend rates and robust financial metrics [5][27]. - The report suggests that state-owned banks and certain regional banks are likely to be prioritized by insurance capital due to their stable dividend profiles [5][26]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "pro-cyclical and high dividend" investment strategy, highlighting the potential for insurance capital to become a new source of incremental investment in the banking sector [5][26]. - Specific banks are identified for investment based on their strong fundamentals and expected recovery in performance, particularly in the context of policy support [5][26].

现在的高股息算不算人多？ 考虑到一个背景，10年期国债收益率处于30年低位，很多是保险、银行在配置高股息对冲利 率下降。 kkqq999 从一般意义，肯定算。因为满大街都说高息股和红利。 但什么时候才结束，谁也不知道。 所以，理论的东西，在实战中很难把握尺度，究竟什么时 候才算高估，什么时候应该离场，一百人有一百种想法。所以，价值投资为啥知易行难，因 为没有一个明确量化的标准。 豫章秋水 早就上车了，继续持有，浮盈超过7年预期股息我就慢慢卖，前面一段时间已经卖过一部分又 买回来了。但是你要我这个价位继续买入，不可能。 人多的时候不要去，这是从博弈的角度看投资，在大A拉长周期看是有效的。在现在这个时 点，一些高股息资产还没到人声鼎沸时，公募基金也没有显著超配，也就还谈不上人多。现 阶段，真想投资高股息品种，与其从博弈角度考虑，不如从其高股息的可持续性上多下些功 夫研究分析。 很多高股息股都把分红率以公司决议的形式公告了。最大的问题还是其盈利的可持续性。很 多高股息股这几年收益稳定，可拉长周期看其实也是周期股，比如且不限于煤炭 航运等。即 使不是周期股，可现在的世界变化太快，或许是科技变革，或许是大洋对面某个政策 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 大地任我行 来源：雪球 六 、 拿到公司分红 ， 就可以用于生活 ， 也可以用于再投资 ， 从而带来投资组合的成长 ， 这样就能弥补企业盈利增长率低的缺点 。 七 、 注重股息的投资生活比纯粹追逐资本利得的投资方法更淡定 ， 更平静 ， 有更多的时间 做其他的事情 ， 这样的生活才是我所追求的 。 在我19年的投资生活中 ， 从来都是重仓持有 股票 ， 没有空仓或减仓持有现金 ， 收益率也挺满意的 。 当然 ， 这些年运气不错 ， 投资离 不开努力 ， 更需要一点运气 。 买入高股息公司要注意的陷阱有 ： 高分红能不能持续 ？ 将来会不会大幅倒退 ？ 是不是强周 期行业 ？ 是不是出于炒作 ， 然后高位套现 ？ 一 、 高成长也意味高估值 ， 或者成长早体现在股价上面了 ， 所以买入这类公司潜在的收益 不一定高 ， 只要成长预期不及 ， 就有双杀的风险 。 二 、 投资要注重确定性 ， " 一鸟在手 ， 胜过两鸟在林 " ， 走向成熟也意味确定性高许多 。 这个道理就像从创业者和现成的企业家中挑选未来的富翁 。 看看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of insurance capital entering the market is highlighted by the establishment of new private equity funds, indicating a significant shift towards long-term equity investments by insurance companies in response to regulatory encouragement [2][3][6]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Market Entry - Ping An Asset Management has received approval to establish Hengyi Chiying (Shenzhen) Private Fund Management Co., marking the third insurance private equity manager licensed in China [2][3]. - The total scale of the insurance capital long-term investment reform pilot will increase to 222 billion yuan, with 50 billion yuan already invested and an additional 172 billion yuan in preparation for market entry [3][4]. - The new "National Ten Articles" policy released in September 2024 aims to expand the pilot program, allowing more insurance institutions to establish private equity funds [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Focus - Hengyi Chiying will focus on long-term and value investments, targeting high-quality listed companies that align with policy directions and insurance capital needs [3][6]. - Insurance companies are increasingly favoring large-cap, liquid stocks with stable dividends, as seen in the investment strategies of various funds like Honghu Fund [9][10]. - The investment landscape includes a diverse range of sectors, with significant holdings in electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and power equipment, among others [8][10]. Group 3: Regulatory Support and Market Dynamics - Regulatory measures have been implemented to encourage long-term investments, including raising the upper limit for equity asset allocation and adjusting risk factors for stock investments [6][11]. - The establishment of new private equity funds has surged, with several insurance companies launching their funds in May 2025, indicating a robust response to regulatory incentives [6][7]. - The shift towards equity investments is seen as a strategic move for insurance companies to optimize asset allocation, reduce risks, and enhance long-term returns [11][12].

Group 1 - The article highlights that June marks a peak period for high dividend assets, with nearly 40% of dividends from the CSI Dividend Index constituents occurring in this month [1][2] - Historical data shows that since 2009, the CSI Dividend Index has only outperformed the CSI 300 and Wind All A-share indices 25% and 12.5% of the time, respectively, with a 37.5% probability of price increases, indicating a significant decline compared to May [1][2] - The article notes that in years like 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2021, the CSI Dividend Index outperformed the CSI 300, particularly during volatile market conditions, raising questions about the market's defensive or offensive nature this June [3] Group 2 - The article suggests that if a new main line is established post-Duanwu Festival, the dividend direction may face headwinds in June, presenting a good entry point for long-term investors [5] - It emphasizes that in a low-interest-rate environment, long-term funds, particularly from insurance capital, continue to enter the market, making dividend stocks an attractive alternative to bank deposits and pure bonds [5] - The CSI Dividend ETF has seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 86.45 million in the last five trading days, and the CSI Dividend Index boasts a dividend yield of 6.35%, making it appealing [5][7] Group 3 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index offers an even higher dividend yield of 6.66%, with its tracking ETF experiencing a net inflow of nearly 20 million recently and a year-to-date growth of 113.81% [7] - The article concludes that both A-shares and H-shares are highly attractive for dividend investments, as evidenced by the continuous net inflows and rising net asset values [7]